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Article ; Online: A threshold-free approach with age-dependency for estimating malaria seroprevalence

Irene Kyomuhangi / Emanuele Giorgi

Malaria Journal, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2022 Volume 12

Abstract: Abstract Background In malaria serology analysis, the standard approach to obtain seroprevalence, i.e the proportion of seropositive individuals in a population, is based on a threshold which is used to classify individuals as seropositive or ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background In malaria serology analysis, the standard approach to obtain seroprevalence, i.e the proportion of seropositive individuals in a population, is based on a threshold which is used to classify individuals as seropositive or seronegative. The choice of this threshold is often arbitrary and is based on methods that ignore the age-dependency of the antibody distribution. Methods Using cross-sectional antibody data from the Western Kenyan Highlands, this paper introduces a novel approach that has three main advantages over the current threshold-based approach: it avoids the use of thresholds; it accounts for the age dependency of malaria antibodies; and it allows us to propagate the uncertainty from the classification of individuals into seropositive and seronegative when estimating seroprevalence. The reversible catalytic model is used as an example for illustrating how to propagate this uncertainty into the parameter estimates of the model. Results This paper finds that accounting for age-dependency leads to a better fit to the data than the standard approach which uses a single threshold across all ages. Additionally, the paper also finds that the proposed threshold-free approach is more robust against the selection of different age-groups when estimating seroprevalence. Conclusion The novel threshold-free approach presented in this paper provides a statistically principled and more objective approach to estimating malaria seroprevalence. The introduced statistical framework also provides a means to compare results across studies which may use different age ranges for the estimation of seroprevalence.
Keywords	Malaria serology ; Geostatistical model ; Reversible catalytic model ; Antibody acquisition model ; Unified mechanistic model ; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Editorial

Eric William Rogier / Emanuele Giorgi / Kevin Tetteh / Nuno Sepúlveda

Frontiers in Medicine, Vol

Current research on serological analyses of infectious diseases

2023 Volume 10

Keywords	microarray ; immunochromatography test ; enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) ; multiplex bead array ; neglected diseases ; tropical diseases ; Medicine (General) ; R5-920
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-02-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Dealing with spatial misalignment to model the relationship between deprivation and life expectancy

Olatunji Johnson / Peter Diggle / Emanuele Giorgi

International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-

a model-based geostatistical approach

2020 Volume 13

Abstract: Abstract Background Life expectancy at birth (LEB), one of the main indicators of human longevity, has often been used to characterise the health status of a population. Understanding its relationships with the deprivation is key to develop policies and ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Life expectancy at birth (LEB), one of the main indicators of human longevity, has often been used to characterise the health status of a population. Understanding its relationships with the deprivation is key to develop policies and evaluate interventions that are aimed at reducing health inequalities. However, methodological challenges in the analysis of LEB data arise from the fact that different Government agencies often provide spatially aggregated information on LEB and the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) at different spatial scales. Our objective is to develop a geostatistical framework that, unlike existing methods of inference, allows to carry out spatially continuous prediction while dealing with spatial misalignment of the areal-level data. Methods We developed a model-based geostatistical approach for the joint analysis of LEB and IMD, when these are available over different partitions of the study region. We model the spatial correlation in LEB and IMD across the areal units using inter-point distances based on a regular grid covering the whole of the study area. The advantages and strengths of the new methodology are illustrated through an analysis of LEB and IMD data from the Liverpool district council. Results We found that the effect of IMD on LEB is stronger in males than in females, explaining about 63.35% of the spatial variation in LEB in the former group and 38.92% in the latter. We also estimate that LEB is about 8.5 years lower between the most and least deprived area of Liverpool for men, and 7.1 years for women. Finally, we find that LEB, both in males and females, is at least 80% likely to be above the England wide average only in some areas falling in the electoral wards of Childwall, Woolton and Church. Conclusion The novel model-based geostatistical framework provides a feasible solution to the spatial misalignment problem. More importantly, the proposed methodology has the following advantages over existing methods used model LEB: (1) it can deliver spatially continuous inferences using spatially aggregated data; (2) it can be applied to any form of misalignment with information provided at a range of spatial scales, from areal-level to pixel-level.
Keywords	Deprivation ; Life expectancy ; Likelihood-based inference ; Model-based geostatistics ; Spatial misalignment ; Health inequality ; Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics ; R858-859.7
Subject code	910
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-03-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of malaria risk in Rwanda

Muhammed Semakula / Franco̧is Niragire / Christel Faes / Emanuele Giorgi

PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss

2020 Volume 9

Abstract: Every year, 435,000 people worldwide die from Malaria, mainly in Africa and Asia. However, malaria is a curable and preventable disease. Most countries are developing malaria elimination plans to meet sustainable development goal three, target 3.3, which ...

Abstract	Every year, 435,000 people worldwide die from Malaria, mainly in Africa and Asia. However, malaria is a curable and preventable disease. Most countries are developing malaria elimination plans to meet sustainable development goal three, target 3.3, which includes ending the epidemic of malaria by 2030. Rwanda, through the malaria strategic plan 2012-2018 set a target to reduce malaria incidence by 42% from 2012 to 2018. Assessing the health policy and taking a decision using the incidence rate approach is becoming more challenging. We are proposing suitable statistical methods that handle spatial structure and uncertainty on the relative risk that is relevant to National Malaria Control Program. We used a spatio-temporal model to estimate the excess probability for decision making at a small area on evaluating reduction of incidence. SIR and BYM models were developed using routine data from Health facilities for the period from 2012 to 2018 in Rwanda. The fitted model was used to generate relative risk (RR) estimates comparing the risk with the malaria risk in 2012, and to assess the probability of attaining the set target goal per area. The results showed an overall increase in malaria in 2013 to 2018 as compared to 2012. Ofall sectors in Rwanda, 47.36% failed to meet targeted reduction in incidence from 2012 to 2018. Our approach of using excess probability method to evaluate attainment of target or identifying threshold is a relevant statistical method, which will enable the Rwandan Government to sustain malaria control and monitor the effectiveness of targeted interventions.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Social and Spatial Experiences in the Cities of Tomorrow

Emanuele Giorgi / Angelo Bugatti / Andrea Bosio

Societies, Vol 10, Iss 1, p

2020 Volume 9

Abstract: As described by the strong academic literature, (Vattimo, Bauman, Mumford, Simon, Haraway, Meschiari, Florida) the contemporary society is going through new challenges, such as the friction between youth, technology, and productivity. These challenges ... ...

Abstract	As described by the strong academic literature, (Vattimo, Bauman, Mumford, Simon, Haraway, Meschiari, Florida) the contemporary society is going through new challenges, such as the friction between youth, technology, and productivity. These challenges affect the way people live and experience the cities, but also the way cities need to evolve. An anthological analysis and a study of secondary sources is used to analyze the new spatial and social experiences, while the analysis of Milan (Italy) as a case study of a creative city is used to understand the rapid shift towards the virtualization of cities, in which consumption is progressively induced by a projected image of the city rather than its actual physical fabric. This manuscript opens a research front, with the goal to understand how architecture and urban design should leave the traditional typologies to propose a new way of creating and living architecture, caught in the middle between the real and the virtual.
Keywords	creative centers ; virtual reality ; spatial experience ; social experience ; Social sciences (General) ; H1-99
Subject code	720
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Territorial Effects of Shared-Living Heritage Regeneration

Tiziano Cattaneo / Emanuele Giorgi / Mauricio Flores / Viviana Barquero

Sustainability, Vol 12, Iss 8616, p

2020 Volume 8616

Abstract: The paper presents further steps of study started by authors in recent years, as part of the widest international research collaboration, which focuses on shared life and regeneration of abandonment of rural settlements as strategies for the development ... ...

Abstract	The paper presents further steps of study started by authors in recent years, as part of the widest international research collaboration, which focuses on shared life and regeneration of abandonment of rural settlements as strategies for the development of sustainable territories. This research aims to understand how the regeneration of ancient community buildings impacts on the sustainable development of the local context. To understand these effects, the research considered four traditional typologies of community buildings, from different cultures: Tulou (China), Cascina (Italy), Hacienda (Mexico), and Marae (New Zealand). Among the tens/hundreds of contemporary regeneration interventions, three contemporary projects per each of these typologies have been selected. To assess the territorial impact of the projects a new approach has been defined using Expert Interviews as the methodology, so as to be able to have an assessment directly by experts in the fields of regenerative projects and sustainable development. The Expert Interviews were held based on a questionnaire that assessed the effects of the projects. For the evaluation of the projects, two categories of indicators have been selected: (1) United Nations SDGs, (2) architectural regeneration indicators generated by the study “The Role of Cultural Heritage in Sustainable Development: Multidimensional Indicators as Decision-Making Tool”, by Francesca Nocca, published in Sustainability (2017, 9, 1882). The research outputs show how the urban-architectural regeneration of these historical typologies can be clearly associated with indications of sustainable development. The results also show that in all four cultures the regeneration of historic buildings provides many benefits to local communities by successfully mixing different income groups and the inclusion of marginalized or vulnerable groups.
Keywords	shared heritage ; architectural design ; heritage regeneration ; community buildings ; expert interview method ; sustainable development goals (SDGs) ; Environmental effects of industries and plants ; TD194-195 ; Renewable energy sources ; TJ807-830 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
Subject code	720
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-10-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Sustainability and Effectiveness of Chinese Outline for National Tourism and Leisure

Emanuele Giorgi / Tiziano Cattaneo / Minqing Ni / Renata Enríquez Alatriste

Sustainability, Vol 12, Iss 3, p

2020 Volume 1161

Abstract: This study is addressed to understand: (1) how the Chinese policies for tourism meet the international guidelines for sustainable development promoted by the United Nations, through the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and (2) how the Chinese ... ...

Abstract	This study is addressed to understand: (1) how the Chinese policies for tourism meet the international guidelines for sustainable development promoted by the United Nations, through the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and (2) how the Chinese policies for tourism are applied in reality by design practice. To answer these two research questions, the research considers mainly three groups of reference sources: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Outline for National Tourism and Leisure 2013−2020 (ONTL) of the Chinese Government and their analyses from independent sources; the descriptions of architectural interventions for hospitality. According with the two research questions, the research is based on two phases: (1) a comparison between the Chinese policies for tourism development and the international policies for sustainable development; (2) a search of sustainable policies in the design practice, through the analysis of 30 projects for hospitality, realized in China after 2013. The results of both the phases propose a new paradigm in understanding China’s role as a country leading sustainable tourism for development.
Keywords	sustainable tourism ; chinese tourism ; design and policies ; Environmental effects of industries and plants ; TD194-195 ; Renewable energy sources ; TJ807-830 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
Subject code	710 ; 910
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-02-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Maplaria

Emanuele Giorgi / Peter M. Macharia / Jack Woodmansey / Robert W. Snow / Barry Rowlingson

Malaria Journal, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-

a user friendly web-application for spatio-temporal malaria prevalence mapping

2021 Volume 11

Abstract: Abstract Background Model-based geostatistical (MBG) methods have been extensively used to map malaria risk using community survey data in low-resource settings where disease registries are incomplete or non-existent. However, the wider adoption of MBG ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Model-based geostatistical (MBG) methods have been extensively used to map malaria risk using community survey data in low-resource settings where disease registries are incomplete or non-existent. However, the wider adoption of MBG methods by national control programmes to inform health policy decisions is hindered by the lack of advanced statistical expertise and suitable computational equipment. Here, Maplaria, an interactive, user-friendly web-application that allows users to upload their own malaria prevalence data and carry out geostatistical prediction of annual malaria prevalence at any desired spatial scale, is introduced. Methods In the design of the Maplaria web application, two main criteria were considered: the application should be able to classify subnational divisions into the most likely endemicity levels; the web application should allow only minimal input from the user in the set-up of the geostatistical inference process. To achieve this, the process of fitting and validating the geostatistical models is carried out by statistical experts using publicly available malaria survey data from the Harvard database. The stage of geostatistical prediction is entirely user-driven and allows the user to upload malaria data, as well as vector data that define the administrative boundaries for the generation of spatially aggregated inferences. Results The process of data uploading and processing is split into a series of steps spread across screens through the progressive disclosure technique that prevents the user being immediately overwhelmed by the length of the form. Each of these is illustrated using a data set from the Malaria Indicator carried out in Tanzania in 2017 as an example. Conclusions Maplaria application provides a user-friendly solution to the problem making geostatistical methods more accessible to users that have not undertaken formal training in statistics. The application is a useful tool that can be used to foster ownership, among policy makers, of disease risk ...
Keywords	Malaria ; Model based geostatistics ; National malaria control programme ; Web application ; Sub Saharan Africa ; Malaria mapping ; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Defining service catchment areas in low-resource settings

Emanuele Giorgi / Peter M Macharia / Robert W Snow / Emelda A Okiro

BMJ Global Health, Vol 6, Iss

2021 Volume 7

Keywords	Medicine (General) ; R5-920 ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-07-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMJ Publishing Group
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Estimating koala density from incidental koala sightings in South‐East Queensland, Australia (1997–2013), using a self‐exciting spatio‐temporal point process model

Ravi Bandara Dissanayake / Emanuele Giorgi / Mark Stevenson / Rachel Allavena / Joerg Henning

Ecology and Evolution, Vol 11, Iss 20, Pp 13805-

2021 Volume 13814

Abstract: Abstract The koala, Phascolarctos cinereus, is an iconic Australian wildlife species facing a rapid decline in South‐East Queensland (SEQLD). For conservation planning, the ability to estimate the size of koala populations is crucial. Systematic surveys ... ...

Abstract	Abstract The koala, Phascolarctos cinereus, is an iconic Australian wildlife species facing a rapid decline in South‐East Queensland (SEQLD). For conservation planning, the ability to estimate the size of koala populations is crucial. Systematic surveys are the most common approach to estimate koala populations but because of their cost they are often restricted to small geographic areas and are conducted infrequently. Public interest and participation in the collection of koala sighting data is increasing in popularity, but such data are generally not used for population estimation. We modeled monthly sightings of koalas reported by members of the public from 1997 to 2013 in SEQLD by developing a self‐exciting spatio‐temporal point process model. This allowed us to account for characteristics that are associated with koala presence (which vary over both space and time) while accounting for detection bias in the koala sighting process and addressing spatial clustering of observations. The density of koalas varied spatially due to the heterogeneous nature of koala habitat in SEQLD, with a mean density of 0.0019 koalas per km2 over the study period. The percentage of land areas with very low densities (0–0.0005 koalas per km2) remained similar throughout the study period representing, on average, 66% of the total study area. The approach described in this paper provides a useful starting point to allow greater use to be made of incidental koala sighting data. We propose that the model presented here could be used to combine systematic koala survey data (which is spatially restricted, but more precise) with koala sighting data (which is incidental and often biased by nature, but often collected over large geographical areas). Our approach could also be adopted for modeling the density of other wildlife species where data is collected in the same manner.
Keywords	citizen science ; koala ; modeling ; population ; Queensland ; Ecology ; QH540-549.5
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-10-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Wiley
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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