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Article: Bovine mortality: the utility of two data sources for the provision of population-level surveillance intelligence.

Eze, Jude I / Correia-Gomes, Carla / Gunn, George J / Tongue, Sue C

2024 Volume 11, Page(s) 1270329

Abstract: Introduction: The use of existing data to provide surveillance intelligence is widely advocated but often presents considerable challenges. Two data sources could be used as proxies for the mortality experienced by the Scottish cattle population: deaths ...

Abstract	Introduction: The use of existing data to provide surveillance intelligence is widely advocated but often presents considerable challenges. Two data sources could be used as proxies for the mortality experienced by the Scottish cattle population: deaths recorded in the mandatory register [Cattle Tracing System (CTS)] and fallen stock collections by the National Fallen Stock Company (NSFCo) with a nationwide voluntary membership. Methods: Data for the period 2011-2016 were described and compared to establish their strengths and limitations. Similarities and differences in their temporal, seasonal and spatial patterns were examined overall, at postcode area level and for different age groups. Temporal aberration detection algorithms (TADA) were fitted. Results: Broadly, similar patterns were observed in the two datasets; however, there were some notable differences. The observed seasonal, annual and spatial patterns match expectations, given knowledge of Scottish cattle production systems. The registry data provide more comprehensive coverage of all areas of Scotland, while collections data provide a more comprehensive measure of the mortality experienced in 0-1-month-old calves. Discussion: Consequently, estimates of early calf mortality and their impact on the livestock sector made using CTS, or successor registers, will be under-estimates. This may apply to other registry-based systems. Fitted TADA detected points of deviations from expected norms some of which coincided in the two datasets; one with a known external event that caused increased mortality. We have demonstrated that both data sources do have the potential to be utilized to provide measures of mortality in the Scottish cattle population that could inform surveillance activities. While neither is perfect, they are complementary. Each has strengths and weaknesses, so ideally, a system where they are analyzed and interpreted in parallel would optimize the information obtained for surveillance purposes for epidemiologists, risk managers, animal health policy-makers and the wider livestock industry sector. This study provides a foundation on which to build an operational system. Further development will require improvements in the timeliness of data availability and further investment of resources.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-02-07
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2834243-4
ISSN	2297-1769
ISSN	2297-1769
DOI	10.3389/fvets.2024.1270329
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: Corrigendum: Evaluations of the disease surveillance centre network in Scotland: what parts has it reached?

Duncan, Andrew J / Eze, Jude I / Brülisauer, Franz / Stirling, Julie M / Jennings, Amy / Tongue, Sue C

Frontiers in veterinary science

2023 Volume 10, Page(s) 1192445

Abstract: This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1099057.]. ...

Abstract	[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1099057.].
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-04-12
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Published Erratum
ZDB-ID	2834243-4
ISSN	2297-1769
ISSN	2297-1769
DOI	10.3389/fvets.2023.1192445
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Article: Evaluations of the Disease Surveillance Centre network in Scotland: What parts has it reached?

Duncan, Andrew J / Eze, Jude I / Brülisauer, Franz / Stirling, Julie M / Jennings, Amy / Tongue, Sue C

Frontiers in veterinary science

2023 Volume 10, Page(s) 1099057

Abstract: Regular evaluation is a prerequisite for systems that provide surveillance of animal populations. Scotland's Rural College Veterinary Services' Disease Surveillance Centre (DSC) network plays an integral part in surveillance to detect new and re-emerging ...

Abstract	Regular evaluation is a prerequisite for systems that provide surveillance of animal populations. Scotland's Rural College Veterinary Services' Disease Surveillance Centre (DSC) network plays an integral part in surveillance to detect new and re-emerging threats within animal populations, predominantly livestock. In response to surveillance reviews and proposed changes to the network, an initial evaluation of diagnostic submissions data in 2010 to mid-2012 established a baseline “footprint,” while highlighting challenges with the data. In this recent evaluation for the period 2013–2018, we developed a new denominator using a combination of agricultural census and movement data, to identify relevant holdings more accurately. Iterative discussions between those processing submissions data and those involved in collection at source took place to understand the intricacies of the data, establish the most appropriate dataset, and develop the processes required to optimise the data extraction and cleansing. The subsequent descriptive analysis identifies the number of diagnostic submissions, the number of unique holdings making submissions to the network and shows that both the surrounding geographic region of, and maximum distance to the closest DSC vary greatly between centres. Analysis of those submissions classed as farm animal post-mortems also highlights the effect of distance to the closest DSC. Whether specific differences between the time periods are due to changes in the behavior of the submitting holdings or the data extraction and cleaning processes was difficult to disentangle. However, with the improved techniques producing better data to work with, a new baseline footprint for the network has been created. This provides information that can help policy makers and surveillance providers make decisions about service provision and evaluate the impact of future changes. Additionally, the outputs of these analyses can provide feedback to those employed in the service, providing evidence of what they are achieving and why changes to data collection processes and ways of working are being made. In a different setting, other data will be available and different challenges may arise. However, the fundamental principles highlighted in these evaluations and the solutions developed should be of interest to any surveillance providers generating similar diagnostic data.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-02-21
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2834243-4
ISSN	2297-1769
ISSN	2297-1769
DOI	10.3389/fvets.2023.1099057
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Article ; Online: Linking human tick bite risk with tick abundance in the environment: A novel approach to quantify tick bite risk using orienteers in Scotland

Ribeiro, Rita / Eze, Jude I. / Gilbert, Lucy / Macrae, Alastair / Duncan, Andrew / Baughan, Jo / Gunn, George / Auty, Harriet

Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases. 2023 Mar., v. 14, no. 2 p.102109-

2023

Abstract: The rate that people are bitten by ticks is critical in determining the risk of tick-borne infections but is rarely quantified accurately. Often tick abundance in the environment is used as a proxy for tick bite risk, but the relationship with risk is ... ...

Abstract	The rate that people are bitten by ticks is critical in determining the risk of tick-borne infections but is rarely quantified accurately. Often tick abundance in the environment is used as a proxy for tick bite risk, but the relationship with risk is poorly understood. We used a novel citizen science approach to measure tick bite rate in orienteers, to assess the relationship between tick abundance and tick bite risk and to identify risk factors for tick bites. Eleven orienteering events were attended in Scotland between August 2018 and September 2019. The number of tick bites in orienteers, and the time and distance of activity were collected using an online questionnaire. Tick abundance in the same areas used for the orienteering events was estimated by surveying ticks on ground vegetation using blanket drags. Among orienteers, mean incidence was 409 tick bites per 1,000 person-hours. Tick abundance and tick bite rate were strongly correlated, indicating that data from questing tick surveys is a useful proxy for the risk of human tick bites. Tick bite rate was better explained by the activity duration than distance covered and was higher in orienteers that ran earlier in the day, exposed to higher temperatures and in woodland habitats. This study highlights the value of the citizen science approach used, which crucially included submission of activity reports both with and without ticks, to generate robust data on tick bite rate. Accurately measuring tick bite rate and understanding environmental factors that influence it are essential in mitigating the risk of tick-borne diseases.
Keywords	citizen science ; ground vegetation ; humans ; questionnaires ; risk ; ticks ; woodlands ; Scotland ; Exposure ; Ixodes ricinus ; Questing tick abundance ; Tick bite risk ; Tick-borne diseases
Language	English
Dates of publication	2023-03
Publishing place	Elsevier GmbH
Document type	Article ; Online
Note	Use and reproduction
ZDB-ID	2541872-5
ISSN	1877-9603 ; 1877-959X
ISSN (online)	1877-9603
ISSN	1877-959X
DOI	10.1016/j.ttbdis.2022.102109
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Article ; Online: Field evaluation of diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and specificity (DSp) of common tests for amoebic gill disease (AGD) and complex gill disease (CGD) in cultured Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in Scotland using Bayesian latent class models.

Boerlage, Annette S / Ashby, Angela / Eze, Jude I / Gunn, George J / Reeves, Aaron

Preventive veterinary medicine

2022 Volume 204, Page(s) 105654

Abstract: Amoebic gill disease (AGD) and complex gill disease (CGD) are the most significant marine gill diseases in salmon aquaculture in Scotland. Little is published about diagnostic performance of tests to detect these diseases, making it difficult to ... ...

Abstract	Amoebic gill disease (AGD) and complex gill disease (CGD) are the most significant marine gill diseases in salmon aquaculture in Scotland. Little is published about diagnostic performance of tests to detect these diseases, making it difficult to interpret test results. We estimated diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and specificity (DSp) of common tests for AGD (gross AGD score, qPCR for Neoparamoeba perurans, histopathology) and CGD (gross proliferative gill disease (PGD) score, gross total gill score, histopathology). Because specifications in our sampling protocol implemented to encourage consistency across the farms might affect diagnostic performance of histopathology (historically the reference standard for gill diseases), we used Bayesian latent class models without reference standard. Cases and non-cases were based on less, medium, and severe stringent case definitions, representing different cut-off levels for the different tests. Gross gill scores for both diseases were excellent in designating non-diseased fish, DSps were generally around 1. To detect CGD, DSe of gross total gill score and gross PGD score were between respectively 0.81 (0.73 - 0.91 lower to upper 95% credible interval) and 0.53 (0.46 - 0.64) for medium stringent case definitions, and to detect AGD the DSe for the gross AGD score was between 0.53 (0.48-0.57) and 0.14 (0.07 - 0.22) for respectively the less and severe stringent case definition. Thus, gross gill scores were medium to good in designating truly diseased fish, implying some false negatives are expected. For CGD the DSe for gross total gill scores were the highest, for AGD it was the qPCR test at a DSe of 0.92 (0.86 - 0.99). For both diseases, DSe was lowest for histopathology, e.g. 0.23 (0.16 - 0.30) for AGD and 0.1 (0.07 - 0.14) for CGD under medium stringent case definitions, perhaps due to collecting the second gill arch on the right rather than the worst affected arch, whilst PCR sampling and gross gill scoring included multiple (PCR) or all (gross scoring) gill arches. The diagnostic goals of these tests differ; gross gill scoring provides a low-cost presumptive diagnosis, PCR a non-lethal confirmation of the presence of a specific pathogen and histopathology provides information on the underlying aetiology of gill damage as well as the extent, severity, and chronology of gill disease. An effective gill health surveillance strategy is likely to incorporate multiple diagnostic tools used in a complementary manner.
MeSH term(s)	Amebiasis ; Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Fish Diseases/diagnosis ; Gills ; Latent Class Analysis ; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction/veterinary ; Salmo salar
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-22
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	43399-8
ISSN	1873-1716 ; 0167-5877
ISSN (online)	1873-1716
ISSN	0167-5877
DOI	10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105654
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Linking human tick bite risk with tick abundance in the environment: A novel approach to quantify tick bite risk using orienteers in Scotland.

Ribeiro, Rita / Eze, Jude I / Gilbert, Lucy / Macrae, Alastair / Duncan, Andrew / Baughan, Jo / Gunn, George / Auty, Harriet

Ticks and tick-borne diseases

2022 Volume 14, Issue 2, Page(s) 102109

Abstract	The rate that people are bitten by ticks is critical in determining the risk of tick-borne infections but is rarely quantified accurately. Often tick abundance in the environment is used as a proxy for tick bite risk, but the relationship with risk is poorly understood. We used a novel citizen science approach to measure tick bite rate in orienteers, to assess the relationship between tick abundance and tick bite risk and to identify risk factors for tick bites. Eleven orienteering events were attended in Scotland between August 2018 and September 2019. The number of tick bites in orienteers, and the time and distance of activity were collected using an online questionnaire. Tick abundance in the same areas used for the orienteering events was estimated by surveying ticks on ground vegetation using blanket drags. Among orienteers, mean incidence was 409 tick bites per 1,000 person-hours. Tick abundance and tick bite rate were strongly correlated, indicating that data from questing tick surveys is a useful proxy for the risk of human tick bites. Tick bite rate was better explained by the activity duration than distance covered and was higher in orienteers that ran earlier in the day, exposed to higher temperatures and in woodland habitats. This study highlights the value of the citizen science approach used, which crucially included submission of activity reports both with and without ticks, to generate robust data on tick bite rate. Accurately measuring tick bite rate and understanding environmental factors that influence it are essential in mitigating the risk of tick-borne diseases.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Humans ; Tick Bites/epidemiology ; Ixodes ; Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology ; Ecosystem ; Scotland/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-12-15
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2541872-5
ISSN	1877-9603 ; 1877-959X
ISSN (online)	1877-9603
ISSN	1877-959X
DOI	10.1016/j.ttbdis.2022.102109
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: The Use of Sheep Movement Data to Inform Design and Interpretation of Slaughterhouse-Based Surveillance Activities.

Stirling, Julie M / Eze, Jude I / Foster, Geoffrey / Reeves, Aaron / Gunn, George J / Tongue, Sue C

Frontiers in veterinary science

2020 Volume 7, Page(s) 205

Abstract: The design of surveillance strategies is often a compromise between science, feasibility, and available resources, especially when sampling is based at fixed locations, such as slaughter-houses. Advances in animal identification, movement recording and ... ...

Abstract	The design of surveillance strategies is often a compromise between science, feasibility, and available resources, especially when sampling is based at fixed locations, such as slaughter-houses. Advances in animal identification, movement recording and traceability should provide data that can facilitate the development, design and interpretation of surveillance activities. Here, for the first time since the introduction of electronic identification of sheep, the utility of a statutory sheep movement database to inform the design and interpretation of slaughter-house based surveillance activities has been investigated. Scottish sheep movement records for 2015-2018 were analyzed in combination with several other data sources. Patterns of off-farm movements of Scottish sheep to slaughter were described and the spatial distribution of several distinct slaughter populations, throughputs and catchment areas for Scottish slaughterhouses were determined. These were used to evaluate the coverage of a convenience-sample slaughter-house based survey for antimicrobial resistance (AMR). In addition, non-slaughter sheep movements within and between Scottish regions were described and inter-and intra-regional movement matrices were produced. There is potential at a number of levels for bias in spatially-associated factors for ovine surveillance activities based at Scottish slaughterhouses. The first is intrinsic because the slaughtered in Scotland population differs from the overall Scottish sheep slaughter population. Other levels will be survey-dependent and occur when the catchment area differs from the slaughtered in Scotland population and when the sampled sheep differ from the catchment area. These are both observed in the AMR survey. Furthermore, the Scottish non-slaughter sheep population is dynamic. Inter-regional movements vary seasonally, driven by the sheep calendar year, structure of the Scottish sheep industry and management practices. These sheep movement data provide a valuable resource for surveillance purposes, despite a number of challenges and limitations that were encountered. They can be used to identify and characterize the spatial origin of relevant populations and so inform the interpretation of existing slaughterhouse-based surveillance activities. They can be used to improve future design by exploring the feasibility and cost:benefit of alternative sampling strategies. Further development could also contribute to other surveillance activities, such as situational awareness and resource allocation, for the benefit of stakeholders.
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-04-24
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2834243-4
ISSN	2297-1769
ISSN	2297-1769
DOI	10.3389/fvets.2020.00205
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Article: Improving the Utility of Voluntary Ovine Fallen Stock Collection and Laboratory Diagnostic Submission Data for Animal Health Surveillance Purposes: A Development Cycle.

Tongue, Sue C / Eze, Jude I / Correia-Gomes, Carla / Brülisauer, Franz / Gunn, George J

Frontiers in veterinary science

2020 Volume 6, Page(s) 487

Abstract: There are calls from policy-makers and industry to use existing data sources to contribute to livestock surveillance systems, especially for syndromic surveillance. However, the practical implications of attempting to use such data sources are ... ...

Abstract	There are calls from policy-makers and industry to use existing data sources to contribute to livestock surveillance systems, especially for syndromic surveillance. However, the practical implications of attempting to use such data sources are challenging; development often requires incremental steps in an iterative cycle. In this study the utility of business operational data from a voluntary fallen stock collection service was investigated, to determine if they could be used as a proxy for the mortality experienced by the British sheep population. Retrospectively, Scottish ovine fallen stock collection data (2011-2014) were transformed into meaningful units for analysis, temporal and spatial patterns were described, time-series methods and a temporal aberration detection algorithm applied. Distinct annual and spatial trends plus seasonal patterns were observed in the three age groups investigated. The algorithm produced an alarm at the point of an historic known departure from normal (April 2013) for two age groups, across Scotland as a whole and in specific postcode areas. The analysis was then extended. Initially, to determine if similar methods could be applied to ovine fallen stock collections from England and Wales for the same time period. Additionally, Scottish contemporaneous laboratory diagnostic submission data were analyzed to see if they could provide further insight for interpretation of statistical alarms. Collaboration was required between the primary data holders, those with industry sector knowledge, plus veterinary, epidemiological and statistical expertise, in order to turn data and analytical outcomes into potentially useful information. A number of limitations were identified and recommendations were made as to how some could be addressed in order to facilitate use of these data as surveillance "intelligence." e.g., improvements to data collection and provision. A recent update of the fallen stock collections data has enabled a longer temporal period to be analyzed, with evidence of changes made in line with the recommendations. Further development will be required before a functional system can be implemented. However, there is potential for use of these data as: a proxy measure for mortality in the sheep population; complementary components in a future surveillance system, and to inform the design of additional surveillance system components.
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-01-24
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2834243-4
ISSN	2297-1769
ISSN	2297-1769
DOI	10.3389/fvets.2019.00487
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Article: Framework for Estimating Indirect Costs in Animal Health Using Time Series Analysis.

Barratt, Alyson S / Rich, Karl M / Eze, Jude I / Porphyre, Thibaud / Gunn, George J / Stott, Alistair W

Frontiers in veterinary science

2019 Volume 6, Page(s) 190

Abstract: Traditionally, cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) focus on the direct costs of animal disease, including animal mortality, morbidity, and associated response costs. However, such approaches often fail to capture the wider, dynamic market impacts that could ... ...

Abstract	Traditionally, cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) focus on the direct costs of animal disease, including animal mortality, morbidity, and associated response costs. However, such approaches often fail to capture the wider, dynamic market impacts that could arise. The duration of these market dislocations could last well after an initial disease outbreak. More generally, current approaches also muddle definitions of indirect costs, confusing debate on the scope of the totalities of disease-induced economic impacts. The aim of this work was to clarify definitions of indirect costs in the context of animal diseases and to apply this definition to a time series methodological framework to estimate the indirect costs of animal disease control strategies, using a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Scotland as a case study. Time series analysis is an econometric method for analyzing statistical relationships between data series over time, thus allowing insights into how market dynamics may change following a disease outbreak. First an epidemiological model simulated FMD disease dynamics based on alternative control strategies. Output from the epidemiological model was used to quantify direct costs and applied in a multivariate vector error correction model to quantify the indirect costs of alternative vaccine stock strategies as a result of FMD. Indirect costs were defined as the economic losses incurred in markets after disease freedom is declared. As such, our definition of indirect costs captures the knock-on price and quantity effects in six agricultural markets after a disease outbreak. Our results suggest that controlling a FMD epidemic with vaccination is less costly in direct and indirect costs relative to a no vaccination (i.e., "cull only") strategy, when considering large FMD outbreaks in Scotland. Our research clarifies and provides a framework for estimating indirect costs, which is applicable to both exotic and endemic diseases. Standard accounting CBAs only capture activities in isolation, ignore linkages across sectors, and do not consider price effects. However, our framework not only delineates when indirect costs start, but also captures the wider knock-on price effects between sectors, which are often omitted from CBAs but are necessary to support decision-making in animal disease prevention and control strategies.
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-06-18
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2834243-4
ISSN	2297-1769
ISSN	2297-1769
DOI	10.3389/fvets.2019.00190
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Article ; Online: Using imperfect data in predictive mapping of vectors: a regional example of Ixodes ricinus distribution.

Ribeiro, Rita / Eze, Jude I / Gilbert, Lucy / Wint, G R William / Gunn, George / Macrae, Alastair / Medlock, Jolyon M / Auty, Harriet

Parasites & vectors

2019 Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 536

Abstract: Background: Knowledge of Ixodes ricinus tick distribution is critical for surveillance and risk management of transmissible tick-borne diseases such as Lyme borreliosis. However, as the ecology of I. ricinus is complex, and robust long-term ... ...

Abstract	Background: Knowledge of Ixodes ricinus tick distribution is critical for surveillance and risk management of transmissible tick-borne diseases such as Lyme borreliosis. However, as the ecology of I. ricinus is complex, and robust long-term geographically extensive distribution tick data are limited, mapping often relies on datasets collected for other purposes. We compared the modelled distributions derived from three datasets with information on I. ricinus distribution (quantitative I. ricinus count data from scientific surveys; I. ricinus presence-only data from public submissions; and a combined I. ricinus dataset from multiple sources) to assess which could be reliably used to inform Public Health strategy. The outputs also illustrate the strengths and limitations of these three types of data, which are commonly used in mapping tick distributions. Methods: Using the Integrated Nested Laplace algorithm we predicted I. ricinus abundance and presence-absence in Scotland and tested the robustness of the predictions, accounting for errors and uncertainty. Results: All models fitted the data well and the covariate predictors for I. ricinus distribution, i.e. deer presence, temperature, habitat, index of vegetation, were as expected. Differences in the spatial trend of I. ricinus distribution were evident between the three predictive maps. Uncertainties in the spatial models resulted from inherent characteristics of the datasets, particularly the number of data points, and coverage over the covariate range used in making the predictions. Conclusions: Quantitative I. ricinus data from scientific surveys are usually considered to be gold standard data and we recommend their use where high data coverage can be achieved. However in this study their value was limited by poor data coverage. Combined datasets with I. ricinus distribution data from multiple sources are valuable in addressing issues of low coverage and this dataset produced the most appropriate map for national scale decision-making in Scotland. When mapping vector distributions for public-health decision making, model uncertainties and limitations of extrapolation need to be considered; these are often not included in published vector distribution maps. Further development of tools to better assess uncertainties in the models and predictions are necessary to allow more informed interpretation of distribution maps.
MeSH term(s)	Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Arthropod Vectors ; Data Accuracy ; Data Analysis ; Deer ; Ecosystem ; Ixodes ; Models, Statistical ; Public Health ; Scotland ; Tick-Borne Diseases/prevention & control ; Tick-Borne Diseases/transmission
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-11-14
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2409480-8
ISSN	1756-3305 ; 1756-3305
ISSN (online)	1756-3305
ISSN	1756-3305
DOI	10.1186/s13071-019-3784-1
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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