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  1. Article ; Online: A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece

    Nikolaos P. Rachaniotis / Thomas K. Dasaklis / Filippos Fotopoulos / Platon Tinios

    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 2497, p

    A Pathway Towards Mass Vaccination

    2021  Volume 2497

    Abstract: From 7 November 2020, Greece adopted a second nationwide lockdown policy to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the first took place from 23 March to 4 May 2020), just as the second wave of COVID-19 was advancing, as did other European countries. To ...

    Abstract From 7 November 2020, Greece adopted a second nationwide lockdown policy to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the first took place from 23 March to 4 May 2020), just as the second wave of COVID-19 was advancing, as did other European countries. To secure the full benefits of mass vaccination, which started in early January 2021, it is of utmost importance to complement it with mid-term non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The objective was to minimize human losses and to limit social and economic costs. In this paper a two-phase stochastic dynamic network compartmental model (a pre-vaccination SEIR until 15 February 2021 and a post-vaccination SVEIR from 15 February 2021 to 30 June 2021) is developed. Three scenarios are assessed for the first phase: (a) A baseline scenario, which lifts the national lockdown and all NPIs in January 2021; (b) a “semi-lockdown” scenario with school opening, partial retail sector operation, universal mask wearing, and social distancing/teleworking in January 2021; and (c) a “rolling lockdown” scenario combining a partial lifting of measures in January 2021 followed by a third nationwide lockdown in February 2021. In the second phase three scenarios with different vaccination rates are assessed. Publicly available data along with some first results of the SHARE COVID-19 survey conducted in Greece are used as input. The results regarding the first phase indicate that the “semi-lockdown” scenario clearly outperforms the third lockdown scenario (5.7% less expected fatalities); the second phase is extremely sensitive on the availability of sufficient vaccine supplies and high vaccination rates.
    Keywords COVID-19 ; compartmental models ; stochastic dynamic network ; Medicine ; R
    Subject code 510
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: Is Mandatory Vaccination in Population over 60 Adequate to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic in E.U.?

    Nikolaos P. Rachaniotis / Thomas K. Dasaklis / Filippos Fotopoulos / Michalis Chouzouris / Vana Sypsa / Antigone Lyberaki / Platon Tinios

    Vaccines, Vol 10, Iss 329, p

    2022  Volume 329

    Abstract: Vaccine hesitancy, which potentially leads to the refusal or delayed acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, is considered a key driver of the increasing death toll from the pandemic in the EU. The European Commission and several member states’ governments are ... ...

    Abstract Vaccine hesitancy, which potentially leads to the refusal or delayed acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, is considered a key driver of the increasing death toll from the pandemic in the EU. The European Commission and several member states’ governments are either planning or have already directly or indirectly announced mandatory vaccination for individuals aged over 60, the group which has repeatedly proved to be the most vulnerable. In this paper, an assessment of this strategy’s benefits is attempted by deriving a metric for the potential gains of vaccination mandates that can be used to compare EU member states. This is completed by examining the reduction in Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL) per person for the EU population over 60 as a function of the member states’ vaccination percentage in these ages. The publicly available data and results of the second iteration of the SHARE COVID-19 survey on the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, conducted during the summer of 2021, are used as inputs.
    Keywords COVID-19 ; mandatory vaccination ; SEYLL ; Medicine ; R
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-02-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

    Full text online

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    Kategorien

    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

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