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  1. Article ; Online: Data pipelines in a public health emergency: The human in the machine.

    Gaythorpe, Katy A M / Fitzjohn, Rich G / Hinsley, Wes / Imai, Natsuko / Knock, Edward S / Perez Guzman, Pablo N / Djaafara, Bimandra / Fraser, Keith / Baguelin, Marc / Ferguson, Neil M

    Epidemics

    2023  Volume 43, Page(s) 100676

    Abstract: In an emergency epidemic response, data providers supply data on a best-faith effort to modellers and analysts who are typically the end user of data collected for other primary purposes such as to inform patient care. Thus, modellers who analyse ... ...

    Abstract In an emergency epidemic response, data providers supply data on a best-faith effort to modellers and analysts who are typically the end user of data collected for other primary purposes such as to inform patient care. Thus, modellers who analyse secondary data have limited ability to influence what is captured. During an emergency response, models themselves are often under constant development and require both stability in their data inputs and flexibility to incorporate new inputs as novel data sources become available. This dynamic landscape is challenging to work with. Here we outline a data pipeline used in the ongoing COVID-19 response in the UK that aims to address these issues. A data pipeline is a sequence of steps to carry the raw data through to a processed and useable model input, along with the appropriate metadata and context. In ours, each data type had an individual processing report, designed to produce outputs that could be easily combined and used downstream. Automated checks were in-built and added as new pathologies emerged. These cleaned outputs were collated at different geographic levels to provide standardised datasets. Finally, a human validation step was an essential component of the analysis pathway and permitted more nuanced issues to be captured. This framework allowed the pipeline to grow in complexity and volume and facilitated the diverse range of modelling approaches employed by researchers. Additionally, every report or modelling output could be traced back to the specific data version that informed it ensuring reproducibility of results. Our approach has been used to facilitate fast-paced analysis and has evolved over time. Our framework and its aspirations are applicable to many settings beyond COVID-19 data, for example for other outbreaks such as Ebola, or where routine and regular analyses are required.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Public Health ; Reproducibility of Results ; Disease Outbreaks
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-03-08
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2467993-8
    ISSN 1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
    ISSN (online) 1878-0067
    ISSN 1755-4365
    DOI 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100676
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: outbreaker2: a modular platform for outbreak reconstruction.

    Campbell, Finlay / Didelot, Xavier / Fitzjohn, Rich / Ferguson, Neil / Cori, Anne / Jombart, Thibaut

    BMC bioinformatics

    2018  Volume 19, Issue Suppl 11, Page(s) 363

    Abstract: Background: Reconstructing individual transmission events in an infectious disease outbreak can provide valuable information and help inform infection control policy. Recent years have seen considerable progress in the development of methodologies for ... ...

    Abstract Background: Reconstructing individual transmission events in an infectious disease outbreak can provide valuable information and help inform infection control policy. Recent years have seen considerable progress in the development of methodologies for reconstructing transmission chains using both epidemiological and genetic data. However, only a few of these methods have been implemented in software packages, and with little consideration for customisability and interoperability. Users are therefore limited to a small number of alternatives, incompatible tools with fixed functionality, or forced to develop their own algorithms at considerable personal effort.
    Results: Here we present outbreaker2, a flexible framework for outbreak reconstruction. This R package re-implements and extends the original model introduced with outbreaker, but most importantly also provides a modular platform allowing users to specify custom models within an optimised inferential framework. As a proof of concept, we implement the within-host evolutionary model introduced with TransPhylo, which is very distinct from the original genetic model in outbreaker, and demonstrate how even complex model results can be successfully included with minimal effort.
    Conclusions: outbreaker2 provides a valuable starting point for future outbreak reconstruction tools, and represents a unifying platform that promotes customisability and interoperability. Implemented in the R software, outbreaker2 joins a growing body of tools for outbreak analysis.
    MeSH term(s) Algorithms ; Biological Evolution ; Disease Outbreaks ; Ebolavirus/physiology ; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology ; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/virology ; Humans ; Markov Chains ; Models, Theoretical ; Monte Carlo Method ; Software
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-10-22
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2041484-5
    ISSN 1471-2105 ; 1471-2105
    ISSN (online) 1471-2105
    ISSN 1471-2105
    DOI 10.1186/s12859-018-2330-z
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease

    Verity, Robert / Okell, Lucy C / Dorigatti, Ilaria / Winskill, Peter / Whittaker, Charles / Imai, Natsuko / Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina / Thompson, Hayley / Walker, Patrick / Fu, Han / Dighe, Amy / Griffin, Jamie / Cori, Anne / Baguelin, Marc / Bhatia, Sangeeta / Boonyasiri, Adhiratha / Cucunuba, Zulma M / Fitzjohn, Rich / Gaythorpe, Katy A M /
    Green, Will / Hamlet, Arran / Hinsley, Wes / Laydon, Daniel / Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma / Riley, Steven / van-Elsand, Sabine / Volz, Erik / Wang, Haowei / Wang, Yuanrong / Xi, Xiayoue / Donnelly, Christl / Ghani, Azra / Ferguson, Neil

    Abstract: Background: A range of case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for COVID 19 have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. Methods: We used individual-case data from mainland China and cases detected outside mainland China to estimate the time ... ...

    Abstract Background: A range of case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for COVID 19 have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. Methods: We used individual-case data from mainland China and cases detected outside mainland China to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the CFR by relating the aggregate distribution of cases by dates of onset to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for the demography of the population, and age and location-based under ascertainment. We additionally estimated the CFR from individual linelist data on 1,334 cases identified outside mainland China. We used data on the PCR prevalence in international residents repatriated from China at the end of January 2020 to obtain age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR). Using data on age stratified severity in a subset of 3,665 cases from China, we estimated the proportion of infections that will likely require hospitalisation. Findings: We estimate the mean duration from onset-of-symptoms to death to be 17.8 days (95% credible interval, crI 16.9,19.2 days) and from onset-of-symptoms to hospital discharge to be 22.6 days (95% crI 21.1,24.4 days). We estimate a crude CFR of 3.67% (95% crI 3.56%,3.80%) in cases from mainland China. Adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment of milder cases in Wuhan relative to the rest of China, we obtain a best estimate of the CFR in China of 1.38% (95% crI 1.23%,1.53%) with substantially higher values in older ages. Our estimate of the CFR from international cases stratified by age (under 60 or 60 and above) are consistent with these estimates from China. We obtain an overall IFR estimate for China of 0.66% (0.39%,1.33%), again with an increasing profile with age. Interpretation: These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and demonstrate a strong age-gradient in risk.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher MedRxiv; WHO
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357
    Database COVID19

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  4. Article ; Online: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease

    Verity, Robert / Okell, Lucy C / Dorigatti, Ilaria / Winskill, Peter / Whittaker, Charles / Imai, Natsuko / Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina / Thompson, Hayley / Walker, Patrick / Fu, Han / Dighe, Amy / Griffin, Jamie / Cori, Anne / Baguelin, Marc / Bhatia, Sangeeta / Boonyasiri, Adhiratha / Cucunuba, Zulma M / Fitzjohn, Rich / Gaythorpe, Katy A M /
    Green, Will / Hamlet, Arran / Hinsley, Wes / Laydon, Daniel / Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma / Riley, Steven / van-Elsand, Sabine / Volz, Erik / Wang, Haowei / Wang, Yuanrong / Xi, Xiayoue / Donnelly, Christl / Ghani, Azra / Ferguson, Neil

    medRxiv

    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-03-13
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357
    Database COVID19

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