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Article ; Online: Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought‐induced range shifts in woody plants

Martínez‐Vilalta, Jordi / García‐Valdés, Raúl / Jump, Alistair / Vilà‐Cabrera, Albert / Mencuccini, M.

New Phytologist. 2023 Oct., v. 240, no. 1 p.23-40

2023

Abstract: Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts ...

Abstract	Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale‐ and context‐dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.
Keywords	climate change ; drought ; ecological communities ; space and time ; stress tolerance ; uncertainty
Language	English
Dates of publication	2023-10
Size	p. 23-40.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article ; Online
Note	REVIEW
ZDB-ID	208885-x
ISSN	1469-8137 ; 0028-646X
ISSN (online)	1469-8137
ISSN	0028-646X
DOI	10.1111/nph.19138
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants.

Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi / García-Valdés, Raúl / Jump, Alistair / Vilà-Cabrera, Albert / Mencuccini, Maurizio

The New phytologist

2023 Volume 240, Issue 1, Page(s) 23–40

Abstract	Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.
MeSH term(s)	Droughts ; Plants ; Biota ; Climate Change ; Phenotype ; Ecosystem
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-07-27
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Review ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	208885-x
ISSN	1469-8137 ; 0028-646X
ISSN (online)	1469-8137
ISSN	0028-646X
DOI	10.1111/nph.19138
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Low forest productivity associated with increasing drought-tolerant species is compensated by an increase in drought-tolerance richness.

García-Valdés, Raúl / Vayreda, Jordi / Retana, Javier / Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

Global change biology

2021 Volume 27, Issue 10, Page(s) 2113–2127

Abstract: Many temperate forests are changing in composition due to a combination of changes in land-use, management and climate-related disturbances. Previous research has shown that in some regions these changes frequently favour drought-tolerant tree species. ... ...

Abstract	Many temperate forests are changing in composition due to a combination of changes in land-use, management and climate-related disturbances. Previous research has shown that in some regions these changes frequently favour drought-tolerant tree species. However, the effects of these changes in composition on forest functioning (e.g. productivity) are unclear. We studied 25 years of change in individual tree biomass growth, ingrowth and mortality, and community composition and total plot biomass across 2663 permanent forest plots in Catalonia (NE Spain) comprising 85,220 trees of 59 species. We focused on the relationship between community-level forest productivity and drought tolerance (DT), which was estimated using hydraulic traits as well as biogeographic indicators. We found that there was a small increase (1.6%-3.2% on average) in community-mean DT (DTcwm) during the study period, concurrent with a strong increase (12.4%-19.4% on average) in DT richness (DTric; i.e. trait range). Most importantly, we found that the mean DT was negatively related to forest productivity, which was explained because drought-tolerant tree species have lower tree-level growth. In contrast, DT richness was strongly and positively related to forest productivity, probably because it allowed for a more stable production along wet and dry periods. These results suggest a negative impact of ongoing climate change on forest productivity mediated by functional composition shifts (i.e. selection of drought-tolerant species), and a positive effect of increased DT richness as a consequence of land-use legacies. Such a trend towards functional diversification, although temporary, would increase forests' capacity to resist drought and place them in a better position to face the expected change in climate.
MeSH term(s)	Biomass ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Spain ; Trees
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-19
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1281439-8
ISSN	1365-2486 ; 1354-1013
ISSN (online)	1365-2486
ISSN	1354-1013
DOI	10.1111/gcb.15529
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Article: Low forest productivity associated with increasing drought‐tolerant species is compensated by an increase in drought‐tolerance richness

García‐Valdés, Raúl / Vayreda, Jordi / Retana, Javier / Martínez‐Vilalta, Jordi

Global change biology. 2021 May, v. 27, no. 10

2021

Abstract: Many temperate forests are changing in composition due to a combination of changes in land‐use, management and climate‐related disturbances. Previous research has shown that in some regions these changes frequently favour drought‐tolerant tree species. ... ...

Abstract	Many temperate forests are changing in composition due to a combination of changes in land‐use, management and climate‐related disturbances. Previous research has shown that in some regions these changes frequently favour drought‐tolerant tree species. However, the effects of these changes in composition on forest functioning (e.g. productivity) are unclear. We studied 25 years of change in individual tree biomass growth, ingrowth and mortality, and community composition and total plot biomass across 2663 permanent forest plots in Catalonia (NE Spain) comprising 85,220 trees of 59 species. We focused on the relationship between community‐level forest productivity and drought tolerance (DT), which was estimated using hydraulic traits as well as biogeographic indicators. We found that there was a small increase (1.6%–3.2% on average) in community‐mean DT (DTcwm) during the study period, concurrent with a strong increase (12.4%–19.4% on average) in DT richness (DTric; i.e. trait range). Most importantly, we found that the mean DT was negatively related to forest productivity, which was explained because drought‐tolerant tree species have lower tree‐level growth. In contrast, DT richness was strongly and positively related to forest productivity, probably because it allowed for a more stable production along wet and dry periods. These results suggest a negative impact of ongoing climate change on forest productivity mediated by functional composition shifts (i.e. selection of drought‐tolerant species), and a positive effect of increased DT richness as a consequence of land‐use legacies. Such a trend towards functional diversification, although temporary, would increase forests’ capacity to resist drought and place them in a better position to face the expected change in climate.
Keywords	biomass ; climate ; climate change ; community structure ; drought ; drought tolerance ; geographical distribution ; land use ; mortality ; trees ; Spain
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-05
Size	p. 2113-2127.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	NAL-AP-2-clean ; JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	1281439-8
ISSN	1365-2486 ; 1354-1013
ISSN (online)	1365-2486
ISSN	1354-1013
DOI	10.1111/gcb.15529
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Climate change‐driven extinctions of tree species affect forest functioning more than random extinctions

García‐Valdés, Raúl / Harald Bugmann / Xavier Morin

Diversity & distributions. 2018 July, v. 24, no. 7

2018

Abstract: AIM: Climate change affects forest functioning not only through direct physiological effects such as modifying photosynthesis and growing season lengths, but also through indirect effects on community composition related to species extinctions and ... ...

Abstract	AIM: Climate change affects forest functioning not only through direct physiological effects such as modifying photosynthesis and growing season lengths, but also through indirect effects on community composition related to species extinctions and colonizations. Such indirect effects remain poorly explored in comparison with the direct ones. Biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) studies commonly examine the effects of species loss by eliminating species randomly. However, species extinctions caused by climate change will depend on the species’ vulnerability to the new environmental conditions, thus occurring in a specific, non‐random order. Here, we evaluated whether successive tree species extinctions, according to their vulnerability to climate change, impact forest functions differently than random species losses. LOCATION: Eleven temperate forests across a gradient of climatic conditions in central Europe. METHODS: We simulated tree community dynamics with a forest succession model to study the impact of species loss on the communities’ aboveground biomass, productivity and temporal stability. Tree species were removed from the local pool (1) randomly, and according to (2) their inability to be recruited under a warmer climate or (3) their increased mortality under drier conditions. RESULTS: Results showed that non‐random species loss (i.e., based on their vulnerability to warmer or drier conditions) changed forest functioning at a different rate, and sometimes direction, than random species loss. Furthermore, directed extinctions, unlike random, triggered tipping points along the species loss process where forest functions were strongly impacted. These tipping points occurred after fewer extinctions in forests located in the coldest areas, where ecosystem functioning relies on fewer species. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We showed that the extinction of species in a deterministic and mechanistically motivated order, in this case the species vulnerability to climate change, strengthens the selection effect of diversity on ecosystem functioning. BEF studies exploring the impact of species loss on ecosystem functioning using random extinctions thus possibly underestimate the potential effect of biodiversity loss when driven by a directional force, such as climate change.
Keywords	aboveground biomass ; biodiversity ; climate change ; climatic factors ; community structure ; extinction ; forest succession ; growing season ; models ; mortality ; photosynthesis ; temperate forests ; trees ; Central European region
Language	English
Dates of publication	2018-07
Size	p. 906-918.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	2020139-4
ISSN	1472-4642 ; 1366-9516
ISSN (online)	1472-4642
ISSN	1366-9516
DOI	10.1111/ddi.12744
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Climate change impacts on long‐term forest productivity might be driven by species turnover rather than by changes in tree growth

García‐Valdés, Raúl / Estrada, Alba / Early, Regan / Lehsten, Veiko / Morin, Xavier

Global ecology and biogeography. 2020 Aug., v. 29, no. 8

2020

Abstract: AIM: Climate change impacts forest functioning and services through two inter‐related effects. First, it impacts tree growth, with effects, for example, on biomass production. Second, climate change also reshuffles community composition, with further ... ...

Abstract	AIM: Climate change impacts forest functioning and services through two inter‐related effects. First, it impacts tree growth, with effects, for example, on biomass production. Second, climate change also reshuffles community composition, with further effects on forest functioning. However, the relative importance of these two effects has rarely been studied. Here, we developed a new modelling approach to investigate these relative importances for forest productivity. LOCATION: Eleven forest sites in central Europe. TIME PERIOD: Historical (1990) and end‐of‐21ˢᵗ‐century climate‐like conditions. We simulated 2,000 years of forest dynamics for each set of conditions. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Twenty‐five common tree species in European temperate forests. METHODS: We coupled species distribution models and a forest succession model, working at complementary spatial and temporal scales, to simulate the climatic filtering that shapes potential tree species pools, the biotic filtering that shapes realized communities and the functioning of these realized communities in the long‐term. RESULTS: Under an average temperature increase (relative to 1901–1990) of between 1.5 and 1.7 °C, changes in simulated forest productivity were caused mostly by changes in the growth of persisting tree species. With an average temperature increase of 3.6–4.0 °C, changes in simulated productivity at sites that currently have a mild climate were again caused predominantly by changes in tree species growth. However, at the warmest and coldest sites, changes in productivity were related mostly to shifts in species composition. In general, at the coldest sites, forest productivity is likely to be enhanced by climate change, whereas at the warmest sites the productivity might increase or decrease depending on the future precipitation regime. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: A combination of two complementary modelling approaches that address questions at the interface between biogeography, community ecology and ecosystem functioning, reveals that climate change‐driven community reshuffling in the long term might be crucially important for ecosystem functioning.
Keywords	biogeography ; biomass production ; climate ; climate change ; community structure ; ecological footprint ; forest dynamics ; forest succession ; geographical distribution ; models ; species diversity ; temperate forests ; temperature ; tree growth ; trees ; Central European region
Language	English
Dates of publication	2020-08
Size	p. 1360-1372.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	2021283-5
ISSN	1466-8238 ; 1466-822X ; 0960-7447
ISSN (online)	1466-8238
ISSN	1466-822X ; 0960-7447
DOI	10.1111/geb.13112
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Article: Nationwide climate-sensitive models for stand dynamics and forest scenario simulation

Trasobares, Antoni / Mola-Yudego, Blas / Aquilué, Núria / Ramón González-Olabarria, José / Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi / García-Valdés, Raúl / De Cáceres, Miquel

Forest ecology and management. 2022 Feb. 01, v. 505

2022

Abstract: Projecting forest dynamics as a function of alternative management strategies and climatic conditions is key to develop sound forest policy and management planning. In Spain there is a need for a full set of climate-sensitive individual-tree growth and ... ...

Abstract	Projecting forest dynamics as a function of alternative management strategies and climatic conditions is key to develop sound forest policy and management planning. In Spain there is a need for a full set of climate-sensitive individual-tree growth and yield models suitable for country-level simulations. In this paper we present environmentally driven models for forest stand dynamics based on distance-independent individual-tree growth and yield. The data for model calibration are based on the second, third and fourth surveys of the Spanish National Forest Inventory, including 50,359 plots and 838,620 trees, representing a broad gradient in forest types and environmental conditions. The results develop a total of 182 models for diameter increment, height increment, total height, survival and ingrowth for 27 species and species groups. The models are integrated into a full forest projection system to perform simulations of forest dynamics and resulting changes in the provision of ecosystem services, including the effects of climate, and forest management. Its potential is illustrated through an array of simulations of forest dynamics in the region of Catalonia under alternative climatic and management scenarios. The resulting models and projections provide a solid basis for the simulation of national or regional climate-sensitive forest scenarios, with the possibility of being applied to other regions, and may be used for future management and planning efforts.
Keywords	ecosystems ; forest dynamics ; forest inventory ; forest management ; forest policy ; forest stands ; national forests ; Spain
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-0201
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	751138-3
ISSN	0378-1127
ISSN	0378-1127
DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119909
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Increased hydraulic risk in assemblages of woody plant species predicts spatial patterns of drought-induced mortality.

Sanchez-Martinez, Pablo / Mencuccini, Maurizio / García-Valdés, Raúl / Hammond, William M / Serra-Diaz, Josep M / Guo, Wen-Yong / Segovia, Ricardo A / Dexter, Kyle G / Svenning, Jens-Christian / Allen, Craig / Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

Nature ecology & evolution

2023 Volume 7, Issue 10, Page(s) 1620–1632

Abstract: Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits of species to model the hydraulic risk of woody ... ...

Abstract	Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits of species to model the hydraulic risk of woody plants globally. We combine these models with species distribution records to estimate the hydraulic risk faced by local woody plant species assemblages. Thus, we produce global maps of hydraulic risk and test for its relationship with observed DIM. Our results show that local assemblages modelled as having higher hydraulic risk present a higher probability of DIM. Metrics characterizing this hydraulic risk improve DIM predictions globally, relative to models accounting only for edaphoclimatic predictors or broad functional groupings. The methodology we present here allows mapping of functional trait distributions and elucidation of global macro-evolutionary and biogeographical patterns, improving our ability to predict potential global change impacts on vegetation.
MeSH term(s)	Droughts ; Plants ; Climate Change ; Phenotype
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-28
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
ISSN	2397-334X
ISSN (online)	2397-334X
DOI	10.1038/s41559-023-02180-z
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Article ; Online: Disentangling biology from mathematical necessity in twentieth-century gymnosperm resilience trends.

Zheng, Tong / Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi / García-Valdés, Raúl / Gazol, Antonio / Camarero, J Julio / Mencuccini, Maurizio

Nature ecology & evolution

2021 Volume 5, Issue 6, Page(s) 733–735

MeSH term(s)	Biology ; Cycadopsida ; Droughts ; Forests ; Tracheophyta
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-05
Publishing country	England
Document type	Letter ; Comment
ISSN	2397-334X
ISSN (online)	2397-334X
DOI	10.1038/s41559-021-01436-w
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Article ; Online: Distribution and conservation of species is misestimated if biotic interactions are ignored: the case of the orchid Laelia speciosa.

Flores-Tolentino, Mayra / García-Valdés, Raúl / Saénz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc / Ávila-Díaz, Irene / Paz, Horacio / Lopez-Toledo, Leonel

Scientific reports

2020 Volume 10, Issue 1, Page(s) 9542

Abstract: The geographic distribution of species depends on their relationships with climate and on the biotic interactions of the species. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) mainly consider climatic variables only and may tend to overestimate these distributions, ... ...

Abstract	The geographic distribution of species depends on their relationships with climate and on the biotic interactions of the species. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) mainly consider climatic variables only and may tend to overestimate these distributions, especially for species strongly restricted by biotic interactions. We identified the preference of Laelia speciosa for different host tree species and include this information in an ENM. The effect of habitat loss and climate change on the distribution of these species was also estimated. Although L. speciosa was recorded as epiphyte at six tree species, 96% of the individuals were registered at one single species (Quercus deserticola), which indicated a strong biotic interaction. We included the distribution of this host tree as a biotic variable in the ENM of L. speciosa. The contemporary distribution of L. speciosa is 52,892 km
MeSH term(s)	Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Mexico ; Orchidaceae/growth & development ; Quercus/growth & development ; Trees/growth & development
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-06-12
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-020-63638-9
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