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  1. Article ; Online: The making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 1

    Hahmann, A.N. / Sile, T. / Witha, B. / Davis, N.N. / Dörenkämper, M. / Ezber, Y. / García-Bustamante, E. / Fidel González-Rouco, J. / Navarro, J. / Olsen, B.T. / Söderberg, S.

    Model sensitivity

    2020  

    Abstract: S.5053-5078 ... This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model ... ...

    Abstract S.5053-5078

    This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model simulations of the wind atlas. The suitable combination of model setup and parameterizations, bound by practical constraints, was found for simulating the climatology of the wind field at turbine-relevant heights with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial WRF model sensitivity experiments compared the wind climate generated by using two commonly used planetary boundary layer schemes and were carried out over several regions in Europe. They confirmed that the most significant differences in annual mean wind speed at 100 m a.g.l. (above ground level) mostly coincide with areas of high surface roughness length and not with the location of the domains or maximum wind speed. Then an ensemble of more than 50 simulations with different setups for a single year was carried out for one domain covering northern Europe for which tall mast observations were available. We varied many different parameters across the simulations, e.g. model version, forcing data, various physical parameterizations, and the size of the model domain. These simulations showed that although virtually every parameter change affects the results in some way, significant changes in the wind climate in the boundary layer are mostly due to using different physical parameterizations, especially the planetary boundary layer scheme, the representation of the land surface, and the prescribed surface roughness length. Also, the setup of the simulations, such as the integration length and the domain size, can considerably influence the results. We assessed the degree of similarity between winds simulated by the WRF ensemble members and the observations using a suite of metrics, including the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), a statistic that measures the distance between two probability ...
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing country de
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Book ; Online: Land surface model influence on the simulated climatologies of temperature and precipitation extremes in the WRF v3.9 model over North America

    García-García, Almudena / Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José / Beltrami, Hugo / González-Rouco, Fidel / García-Bustamante, Elena / Finnis, Joel

    eISSN: 1991-9603

    2020  

    Abstract: The representation and projection of extreme temperature and precipitation events in regional and global climate models are of major importance for the study of climate change impacts. However, state-of-the-art global and regional climate model ... ...

    Abstract The representation and projection of extreme temperature and precipitation events in regional and global climate models are of major importance for the study of climate change impacts. However, state-of-the-art global and regional climate model simulations yield a broad inter-model range of intensity, duration and frequency of these extremes. Here, we present a modeling experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to determine the influence of the land surface model (LSM) component on uncertainties associated with extreme events. First, we analyze land–atmosphere interactions within four simulations performed by the WRF model from 1980 to 2012 over North America, using three different LSMs. Results show LSM-dependent differences at regional scales in the frequency of occurrence of events when surface conditions are altered by atmospheric forcing or land processes. The inter-model range of extreme statistics across the WRF simulations is large, particularly for indices related to the intensity and duration of temperature and precipitation extremes. Our results show that the WRF simulation of the climatology of heat extremes can be 5 ∘ C warmer and 6 d longer depending on the employed LSM component, and similarly for cold extremes and heavy precipitation events. Areas showing large uncertainty in WRF-simulated extreme events are also identified in a model ensemble from three different regional climate model (RCM) simulations participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, revealing the implications of these results for other model ensembles. Thus, studies based on multi-model ensembles and reanalyses should include a variety of LSM configurations to account for the uncertainty arising from this model component or to test the performance of the selected LSM component before running the whole simulation. This study illustrates the importance of the LSM choice in climate simulations, supporting the development of new modeling studies using different LSM components to understand inter-model differences in simulating extreme temperature and precipitation events, which in turn will help to reduce uncertainties in climate model projections.
    Subject code 550 ; 910
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-11-05
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article ; Online: The Making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 2

    Dörenkämper, M. / Olsen, B.T. / Witha, B. / Hahmann, A.N. / Davis, N.N. / Barcons, J. / Ezber, Y. / García-Bustamante, E. / Fidel González-Rouco, J. / Navarro, J. / Sastre-Marugán, M. / Sile, T. / Trei, W. / Zagar, M. / Badger, J. / Gottschall, J. / Rodrigo, J.S. / Mann, J.

    Production and evaluatio

    2020  

    Abstract: S.5079-5102 ... This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to ... ...

    Abstract S.5079-5102

    This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the downscaling using WAsP. We show the main results from the final wind atlas and present a comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe. The added value of the WRF and WAsP downscaling of wind climatologies is evaluated relative to the performance of the driving ERA5 reanalysis and shows that the WRF downscaling reduces the mean wind speed bias and spread relative to that of ERA5 from −1.50±1.30 to 0.02±0.78 m s−1. The WAsP downscaling has an added positive impact relative to that of the WRF model in simple terrain. In complex terrain, where the assumptions of the linearized flow model break down, both the mean bias and spread in wind speed are worse than those from the raw mesoscale results.

    13

    Nr.10
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing country de
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Book ; Online: Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

    Fernández-Donado, L. / González-Rouco, J. F. / Raible, C. C. / Ammann, C. M. / Barriopedro, D. / García-Bustamante, E. / Jungclaus, J. H. / Lorenz, S. J. / Luterbacher, J. / Phipps, S. J. / Servonnat, J. / Swingedouw, D. / Tett, S. F. B. / Wagner, S. / Yiou, P. / Zorita, E.

    eISSN: 1814-9332

    2018  

    Abstract: Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations ... ...

    Abstract Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-09-27
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article ; Online: The Making of the New European Wind Atlas. Pt.1

    Hahmann, Andrea N. / Sile, Tija / Witha, Björn / Davis, Neil N. / Dörenkämper, Martin / Ezber, Yasemin / Garcia-Bustamante, Elena / Gonzales-Rouco, J. Fidel / Navarro, Jorge / Olsen, Bjarke T. / Söderberg, Stefan

    Model Sensitivity

    2020  

    Abstract: S.5053-5078 ... This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model ... ...

    Abstract S.5053-5078

    This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model simulations of the wind atlas. The suitable combination of model setup and parameterizations, bound by practical constraints, was found for simulating the climatology of the wind field at turbine-relevant heights with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial WRF model sensitivity experiments compared the wind climate generated by using two commonly used planetary boundary layer schemes and were carried out over several regions in Europe. They confirmed that the most significant differences in annual mean wind speed at 100 m a.g.l. (above ground level) mostly coincide with areas of high surface roughness length and not with the location of the domains or maximum wind speed. Then an ensemble of more than 50 simulations with different setups for a single year was carried out for one domain covering northern Europe for which tall mast observations were available. We varied many different parameters across the simulations, e.g. model version, forcing data, various physical parameterizations, and the size of the model domain. These simulations showed that although virtually every parameter change affects the results in some way, significant changes in the wind climate in the boundary layer are mostly due to using different physical parameterizations, especially the planetary boundary layer scheme, the representation of the land surface, and the prescribed surface roughness length. Also, the setup of the simulations, such as the integration length and the domain size, can considerably influence the results. We assessed the degree of similarity between winds simulated by the WRF ensemble members and the observations using a suite of metrics, including the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), a statistic that measures the distance between two probability ...
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing country de
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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    Kategorien

  6. Book ; Article ; Online: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium

    PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group: Fernandez Donado, L. / Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. / Garcia Bustamante, E. / Goosse, H. / Jungclaus, J. / Bothe, O. / Hegerl, G. / Moberg, A. / Raible, C.C. / Schurer, A. / Wagner, S. / Zorita, E. / Hind, A. / Lehner, F. / McKay, N. / Warren, E. / Widmann, M.

    Climate of the Past Discussions [Online Ressource] ; 1814-9340

    2015  

    Abstract: Estimated external radiative forcings, model results and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past ... ...

    Abstract Estimated external radiative forcings, model results and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continental-scale generated by the PAGES 2k project and the collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings following the PMIP3 protocol are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high latitudes regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions which are based on fewer paleoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere.
    Keywords Marine ; Coastal and Polar Systems ; 551
    Subject code 551
    Publisher GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  7. Book ; Article ; Online: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium

    PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group: Fernandez Donado, L. / Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. / Garcia Bustamante, E. / Goosse, H. / Jungclaus, J. / Bothe, O. / Hegerl, G. / Moberg, A. / Raible, C.C. / Schurer, A. / Wagner, S. / Zorita, E. / Hind, A. / Lehner, F. / McKay, N. / Warren, E. / Widmann, M.

    Climate of the Past ; 1814-9324

    2015  

    Abstract: Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past ... ...

    Abstract Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continental-scale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere.
    Keywords Marine ; Coastal and Polar Systems ; 551
    Subject code 551
    Publisher GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article ; Online: An evaluation of WRF's ability to reproduce the surface wind over complex terrain based on typical circulation patterns.

    Jiménez, P.A. / Dudhia, J. / González-Rouco, J.F. / Montávez, J.P. / Garcia-Bustamante, E. / Navarro, J. / Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J. / Munoz-Roldán, A.

    Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

    2013  Volume 118, Issue 14

    Abstract: 1] The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce the surface wind circulations over complex terrain is examined. The atmospheric evolution is simulated using two versions of the WRF model during an over 13¿year period ( ...

    Abstract [1] The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce the surface wind circulations over complex terrain is examined. The atmospheric evolution is simulated using two versions of the WRF model during an over 13¿year period (1992 to 2005) over a complex terrain region located in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. A high horizontal resolution of 2km is used to provide an accurate representation of the terrain features. The multiyear evaluation focuses on the analysis of the accuracy displayed by the WRF simulations to reproduce the wind field of the six typical wind patterns (WPs) identified over the area in a previous observational work. Each pattern contains a high number of days which allows one to reach solid conclusions regarding the model performance. The accuracy of the simulations to reproduce the wind field under representative synoptic situations, or pressure patterns (PPs), of the Iberian Peninsula is also inspected in order to diagnose errors as a function of the large-scale situation. The evaluation is accomplished using daily averages in order to inspect the ability of WRF to reproduce the surface flow as a result of the interaction between the synoptic scale and the regional topography. Results indicate that model errors can originate from problems in the initial and lateral boundary conditions, misrepresentations at the synoptic scale, or the realism of the topographic features.
    Keywords classification ; cluster-analysis ; mesoscale model ; quality-assurance ; reanalysis ; regional climate model ; simulation ; united-states ; validation ; variability
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing country nl
    Document type Article ; Online
    ZDB-ID 710256-2
    ISSN 2169-8996 ; 2169-897X ; 0148-0227
    ISSN (online) 2169-8996
    ISSN 2169-897X ; 0148-0227
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Book ; Online: The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2

    Dörenkämper, Martin / Olsen, Bjarke T. / Witha, Björn / Hahmann, Andrea N. / Davis, Neil N. / Barcons, Jordi / Ezber, Yasemin / García-Bustamante, Elena / González-Rouco, J. Fidel / Navarro, Jorge / Sastre-Marugán, Mariano / Sīle, Tija / Trei, Wilke / Žagar, Mark / Badger, Jake / Gottschall, Julia / Sanz Rodrigo, Javier / Mann, Jakob

    eISSN: 1991-9603

    Production and Evaluation

    2020  

    Abstract: This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the ... ...

    Abstract This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the downscaling using WAsP. We show the main results from the final wind atlas and present a comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe. The added value of the WRF and WAsP downscaling of wind climatologies is evaluated relative to the performance of the driving ERA5 reanalysis and shows that the WRF downscaling reduces the mean wind speed bias and spread relative to that of ERA5 from −1.50 ± 1.30 to 0.02 ± 0.78 ms −1 . The WAsP downscaling has an added positive impact relative to that of the WRF model in simple terrain. In complex terrain, where the assumptions of the linearised flow model break down, both the mean bias and spread in wind speed are worse than the mesoscale results.
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-03
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  10. Book ; Online: The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2

    Dörenkämper, Martin / Olsen, Bjarke T. / Witha, Björn / Hahmann, Andrea N. / Davis, Neil N. / Barcons, Jordi / Ezber, Yasemin / García-Bustamante, Elena / González-Rouco, J. Fidel / Navarro, Jorge / Sastre-Marugán, Mariano / Sīle, Tija / Trei, Wilke / Žagar, Mark / Badger, Jake / Gottschall, Julia / Sanz Rodrigo, Javier / Mann, Jakob

    eISSN: 1991-9603

    Production and evaluation

    2020  

    Abstract: This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the ... ...

    Abstract This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the downscaling using WAsP. We show the main results from the final wind atlas and present a comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe. The added value of the WRF and WAsP downscaling of wind climatologies is evaluated relative to the performance of the driving ERA5 reanalysis and shows that the WRF downscaling reduces the mean wind speed bias and spread relative to that of ERA5 from <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1.50</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1.30</mn></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="6c1f8c39632c8c039ae61d1070d357dd"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="gmd-13-5079-2020-ie00001.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="gmd-13-5079-2020-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> to 0.02±0.78 m s −1 . The WAsP downscaling has an added positive impact relative to that of the WRF model in simple terrain. In complex terrain, where the assumptions of the linearized flow model break down, both the mean bias and spread in wind speed are worse than those from the raw mesoscale results.
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-10-27
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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