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Article ; Online: The role of biostatistics in the response to COVID-19

Geert Molenberghs

Israel Journal of Health Policy Research, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-

a Belgian and international perspective

2023 Volume 3

Abstract: Abstract In this commentary to Dattner et al. (Israel J Health Policy Res. 11:22, 2022), we highlight similarities and differences in the role that biostatistics and biostatisticians have been playing in the COVID-19 response in Belgium and Israel. We ... ...

Abstract	Abstract In this commentary to Dattner et al. (Israel J Health Policy Res. 11:22, 2022), we highlight similarities and differences in the role that biostatistics and biostatisticians have been playing in the COVID-19 response in Belgium and Israel. We bring out implications and opportunities for our field and for science. We argue that biostatistics has an important place in the multidisciplinary COVID-19 response, in terms of research, policy advice, and science and public communication. In Belgium, biostatisticians located in various institutes, collaborated with epidemiologists, vaccinologists, infectiologists, immunologists, social scientists, and government policy makers to provide rapid and science-informed policy advice. Biostatisticians, who can easily be mobilized to work together in pandemic response, also played a role in public communication.
Keywords	Data availability ; Data sharing ; Communication ; Advisory bodies ; Medicine (General) ; R5-920 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	306
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: A dashboard for the evaluation of the effect of school closures on wellbeing of children and parents

Febe Brackx / Bert De Smedt / Geert Molenberghs

Archives of Public Health, Vol 81, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2023 Volume 13

Abstract: Abstract Background We present a dashboard for the evaluation of the impact of school closures on children and parents during the first wave of the COVID pandemic in 2020 on the various components of wellbeing. Methods Starting from an explorative ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background We present a dashboard for the evaluation of the impact of school closures on children and parents during the first wave of the COVID pandemic in 2020 on the various components of wellbeing. Methods Starting from an explorative literature search by a team of experts from diverse fields (e.g., epidemiology, virology, psychology, education, sociology), we developed a dashboard that allows for the quick evaluation of the general effect of school closures on various indicators of well-being in different groups and for the quality of the available research, at a time where a crisis is ongoing. Results It is concluded that there is evidence that the school closures reduced the transmission of COVID in the first wave in springtime 2020. Nevertheless, a multitude of studies show that the school closures also had a negative impact on different components of wellbeing such as academic achievement, time spent on learning and mental health. Furthermore, the school closures affected not only the children and adolescents, but also the parents that were forced to provide more childcare and help with schoolwork. Longitudinal studies on large representative samples with repeated assessments of wellbeing are necessary to understand the long-term effects of the school closures. Conclusions The dashboard provides a first visual overview of the effects of school closures on wellbeing, and can serve as the basis for a future more systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of school closures on wellbeing. It can be considered as a paradigm for rapid obtention of scientific evidence, during a quickly unfolding crisis, also in view of underpinning policy advice.
Keywords	COVID ; Wellbeing ; Dashboard ; School ; Lockdown ; School closures ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	370
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The COVID-19 wave in Belgium during the Fall of 2020 and its association with higher education.

Yessika Adelwin Natalia / Christel Faes / Thomas Neyens / Geert Molenberghs

PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss 2, p e

2022 Volume 0264516

Abstract: Soon after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, Belgium was confronted with a first COVID-19 wave in March-April 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation declined in the summer months (late May to early July 2020). Following a successfully trumped late July-August peak, ...

Abstract	Soon after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, Belgium was confronted with a first COVID-19 wave in March-April 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation declined in the summer months (late May to early July 2020). Following a successfully trumped late July-August peak, COVID-19 incidence fell slightly, to then enter two successive phases of rapid incline: in the first half of September, and then again in October 2020. The first of these coincided with the peak period of returning summer travelers; the second one coincided with the start of higher education's academic year. The largest observed COVID-19 incidence occurred in the period 16-31 October, particularly in the Walloon Region, the southern, French-speaking part of Belgium. We examine the potential association of the higher education population with spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, using Bayesian spatial Poisson models for confirmed test cases, accounting for socio-demographic heterogeneity in the population. We find a significant association between the number of COVID-19 cases in the age groups 18-29 years and 30-39 years and the size of the higher education student population at the municipality level. These results can be useful towards COVID-19 mitigation strategies, particularly in areas where virus transmission from higher education students into the broader community could exacerbate morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 among populations with prevalent underlying conditions associated with more severe outcomes following infection.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The COVID-19 wave in Belgium during the Fall of 2020 and its association with higher education

Yessika Adelwin Natalia / Christel Faes / Thomas Neyens / Geert Molenberghs

PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss

2022 Volume 2

Abstract	Soon after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, Belgium was confronted with a first COVID-19 wave in March-April 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation declined in the summer months (late May to early July 2020). Following a successfully trumped late July-August peak, COVID-19 incidence fell slightly, to then enter two successive phases of rapid incline: in the first half of September, and then again in October 2020. The first of these coincided with the peak period of returning summer travelers; the second one coincided with the start of higher education’s academic year. The largest observed COVID-19 incidence occurred in the period 16–31 October, particularly in the Walloon Region, the southern, French-speaking part of Belgium. We examine the potential association of the higher education population with spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, using Bayesian spatial Poisson models for confirmed test cases, accounting for socio-demographic heterogeneity in the population. We find a significant association between the number of COVID-19 cases in the age groups 18–29 years and 30–39 years and the size of the higher education student population at the municipality level. These results can be useful towards COVID-19 mitigation strategies, particularly in areas where virus transmission from higher education students into the broader community could exacerbate morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 among populations with prevalent underlying conditions associated with more severe outcomes following infection.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Key risk factors associated with fractal dimension based geographical clustering of COVID-19 data in the Flemish and Brussels region, Belgium

Yessika Adelwin Natalia / Christel Faes / Thomas Neyens / Naïma Hammami / Geert Molenberghs

Frontiers in Public Health, Vol

2023 Volume 11

Abstract: IntroductionCOVID-19 remains a major concern globally. Therefore, it is important to evaluate COVID-19's rapidly changing trends. The fractal dimension has been proposed as a viable method to characterize COVID-19 curves since epidemic data is often ... ...

Abstract	IntroductionCOVID-19 remains a major concern globally. Therefore, it is important to evaluate COVID-19's rapidly changing trends. The fractal dimension has been proposed as a viable method to characterize COVID-19 curves since epidemic data is often subject to considerable heterogeneity. In this study, we aim to investigate the association between various socio-demographic factors and the complexity of the COVID-19 curve as quantified through its fractal dimension.MethodsWe collected population indicators data (ethnic composition, socioeconomic status, number of inhabitants, population density, the older adult population proportion, vaccination rate, satisfaction, and trust in the government) at the level of the statistical sector in Belgium. We compared these data with fractal dimension indicators of COVID-19 incidence between 1 January – 31 December 2021 using canonical correlation analysis.ResultsOur results showed that these population indicators have a significant association with COVID-19 incidences, with the highest explanatory and predictive power coming from the number of inhabitants, population density, and ethnic composition.ConclusionIt is important to monitor these population indicators during a pandemic, especially when dealing with targeted interventions for a specific population.
Keywords	Belgium ; canonical correlation analysis ; COVID-19 ; fractal dimension ; socio-demographic indicators ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The Influence of Missing Data on Disabilities in Patients Treated with High-Dose Spinal Cord Stimulation

Lisa Goudman / Geert Molenberghs / Rui V. Duarte / Maarten Moens

Journal of Clinical Medicine, Vol 10, Iss 4897, p

A Tipping Point Sensitivity Analysis

2021 Volume 4897

Abstract: New waveforms have changed the field of Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS) to optimize therapy outcomes, among which is High-Dose SCS (HD-SCS). Missing observations are often encountered when conducting clinical trials in this field. In this study, different ... ...

Abstract	New waveforms have changed the field of Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS) to optimize therapy outcomes, among which is High-Dose SCS (HD-SCS). Missing observations are often encountered when conducting clinical trials in this field. In this study, different approaches with varying assumptions were constructed to evaluate how conclusions may be influenced by these assumptions. The aim is to perform a tipping point sensitivity analysis to evaluate the influence of missing data on the overall conclusion regarding the effectiveness of HD-SCS on disability. Data from the Discover study were used, in which 185 patients with Failed Back Surgery Syndrome were included. Disability was evaluated before SCS and after 1, 3 and 12 months of HD-SCS. During the second, third and fourth visit, data from 130, 114 and 90 patients were available, respectively. HD-SCS resulted in a significant decrease in disability scores based on the analysis of observed data and with multiple imputations. The tipping point sensitivity analysis revealed that the shift parameter was 17. Thus, the conclusion concerning the time effect under a “missing at random” mechanism is robust when the shift parameter for the disability score is 17. From a clinical point of view, a shift of 17 points on disability is not very plausible. Therefore we tend to consider the conclusions drawn under “missing at random” as being robust.
Keywords	missing data mechanisms ; sensitivity analysis ; multiple imputations ; neuromodulation ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-10-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Time trends in the use of field-substitution in the Belgian health interview survey

Stefaan Demarest / Geert Molenberghs / Finaba Berete / Rana Charafeddine / Herman Van Oyen / Guido Van Hal

Archives of Public Health, Vol 80, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2022 Volume 9

Abstract: Abstract Background Matched field-substitution has been applied in the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) since the first round. During data-collection, non-participating households are replaced by substitute households, if needed up to seven times. ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Matched field-substitution has been applied in the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) since the first round. During data-collection, non-participating households are replaced by substitute households, if needed up to seven times. In this manuscript, the use of field-substitution in the six rounds of BHIS (1997–2018) is assessed. We investigated to what extent field-substitution contributes to obtaining the requested net-sample size and whether this has evolved throughout the successive BHIS’s. Methods Harmonized para-data gathered throughout de data-collection phases are used to define the final participation status of all households that could be contacted for participation to the survey. The share of the substituted households was calculated and possible trends in the use of field-substitution throughout the successive surveys was assessed using logistic regression. Finally, it was examined whether the application of field-substitution changed in terms of the position of the participating household in the clusters, using the ESTIMATE statement in the SAS procedure NLMIXED. Results Overall, four in ten participating households are substitute households. This proportion remains rather similar over the surveys. The probability of participating according to the position of the household within the cluster is evidently much higher in households at the first position of initial selected clusters. Over the survey-years, the share of participating household derived from substitute clusters in the total number of participating households has slightly increased. Conclusion Field-substitution in BHIS plays a very substantial role in obtaining the requested net sample both in size and composition. Field-substitution, as applied in BHIS might inspire scientists to consider it when developing their surveys.
Keywords	Health surveys ; Data-collection ; Field-substitution ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Updating ‘Perceptions and opinions on the COVID-19 pandemic in Flanders, Belgium’ with data of two additional waves of a longitudinal study

David De Coninck / Leen d'Haenens / Geert Molenberghs / Anja Declercq / Christophe Delecluse / Evelien Van Roie / Koen Matthijs

Data in Brief, Vol 42, Iss , Pp 108010- (2022)

2022

Abstract: Adding to longitudinal data of three waves that were presented in an original dataset on perceptions and behaviours regarding government measures, fear of getting ill, and media use during the COVID-19 pandemic in Flanders (Belgium), this article ... ...

Abstract	Adding to longitudinal data of three waves that were presented in an original dataset on perceptions and behaviours regarding government measures, fear of getting ill, and media use during the COVID-19 pandemic in Flanders (Belgium), this article presents information on two additional waves that were collected at two key moments in the pandemic in the same region: in late August 2020 (W4; as infection rates increased again; N = 505) and in the middle of March 2021, exactly one year after the first data collection (W5; N = 408). In W4 and W5, new respondents were added to the longitudinal sample to strengthen cross-sectional analyses. Additional information on informal care and physical activity was also collected. These data may be of interest to researchers who wish to explore dynamics of fear and attitudes towards public health measures during this particularly challenging time.
Keywords	COVID-19 ; Coronavirus ; Belgium ; Longitudinal ; Attitudes ; Public health ; Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics ; R858-859.7 ; Science (General) ; Q1-390
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-06-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The importance of investing in data, models, experiments, team science, and public trust to help policymakers prepare for the next pandemic.

Richard Grieve / Youqi Yang / Sam Abbott / Giridhara R Babu / Malay Bhattacharyya / Natalie Dean / Stephen Evans / Nicholas Jewell / Sinéad M Langan / Woojoo Lee / Geert Molenberghs / Liam Smeeth / Elizabeth Williamson / Bhramar Mukherjee

PLOS Global Public Health, Vol 3, Iss 11, p e

2023 Volume 0002601

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about valuable insights regarding models, data, and experiments. In this narrative review, we summarised the existing literature on these three themes, exploring the challenges of providing forecasts, the requirement for ...

Abstract	The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about valuable insights regarding models, data, and experiments. In this narrative review, we summarised the existing literature on these three themes, exploring the challenges of providing forecasts, the requirement for real-time linkage of health-related datasets, and the role of 'experimentation' in evaluating interventions. This literature review encourages us to broaden our perspective for the future, acknowledging the significance of investing in models, data, and experimentation, but also to invest in areas that are conceptually more abstract: the value of 'team science', the need for public trust in science, and in establishing processes for using science in policy. Policy-makers rely on model forecasts early in a pandemic when there is little data, and it is vital to communicate the assumptions, limitations, and uncertainties (theme 1). Linked routine data can provide critical information, for example, in establishing risk factors for adverse outcomes but are often not available quickly enough to make a real-time impact. The interoperability of data resources internationally is required to facilitate sharing across jurisdictions (theme 2). Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provided timely evidence on the efficacy and safety of vaccinations and pharmaceuticals but were largely conducted in higher income countries, restricting generalisability to low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Trials for non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were almost non-existent which was a missed opportunity (theme 3). Building on these themes from the narrative review, we underscore the importance of three other areas that need investment for effective evidence-driven policy-making. The COVID-19 response relied on strong multidisciplinary research infrastructures, but funders and academic institutions need to do more to incentivise team science (4). To enhance public trust in the use of scientific evidence for policy, researchers and policy-makers must work together to clearly ...
Keywords	Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	306
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Confirmed COVID-19 Cases per Economic Activity during Autumn Wave in Belgium

Johan Verbeeck / Godelieve Vandersmissen / Jannes Peeters / Sofieke Klamer / Sharon Hancart / Tinne Lernout / Mathias Dewatripont / Lode Godderis / Geert Molenberghs

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 12489, p

2021 Volume 12489

Abstract: Some occupational sectors, such as human health and care, food service, cultural and sport activities, have been associated with a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection than other sectors. To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, it is preferable to apply ... ...

Abstract	Some occupational sectors, such as human health and care, food service, cultural and sport activities, have been associated with a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection than other sectors. To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, it is preferable to apply targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on selected economic sectors, rather than a full lockdown. However, the effect of these general and sector-specific interventions on the virus circulation has only been sparsely studied. We assess the COVID-19 incidence under different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions per economic activity during the autumn 2020 wave in Belgium. The 14-day incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases per the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE–BEL) sector is modelled by a longitudinal Gaussian-Gaussian two-stage approach. This is based on exhaustive data on all employees in all sectors. In the presence of sanitary protocols and minimal non-pharmaceutical interventions, many sectors with close contact with others show considerably higher COVID-19 14-day incidences than other sectors. The effect of stricter non-pharmaceutical interventions in the general population and non-essential sectors is seen in the timing of the peak incidence and the width and height of the post-peak incidence. In most sectors incidences returned to higher levels after the peak than before and this decrease took longer for the health and care sector. Sanitary protocols for close proximity occupations may be sufficient during periods of low-level virus circulation, but progressively less with increasing circulation. Stricter general and sector-specific non-pharmaceutical interventions adequately decrease COVID-19 incidences, even in close proximity in essential sectors under solely sanitary protocols.
Keywords	longitudinal study ; occupational health ; cross-sectional study ; Gaussian-Gaussian model ; COVID-19 ; non-pharmaceutical interventions ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	332
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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