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  1. Article ; Online: The Formal Demography of Peak Population.

    Goldstein, Joshua R / Cassidy, Thomas

    Demography

    2024  Volume 61, Issue 2, Page(s) 419–438

    Abstract: When will the human population peak? In this article, we build on classical results by Ansley Coale, who showed that when fertility declines steadily, births reach their maximum before fertility reaches replacement level, and the decline in total ... ...

    Abstract When will the human population peak? In this article, we build on classical results by Ansley Coale, who showed that when fertility declines steadily, births reach their maximum before fertility reaches replacement level, and the decline in total population size does not occur until several decades after fertility has reached that level. We extend Coale's results by modeling longevity increases, net immigration, and a slowdown in fertility decline that resembles current projections. With these extensions, our models predict a typical lag between replacement-level fertility and population decline of about 35 to 40 years, consistent with projections by the United Nations and about 15 years longer than the lag predicted by Coale. Our analysis helps reveal underlying factors in the timing of peak population.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Birth Rate ; Demography ; Fertility ; Population Growth ; Developing Countries
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-13
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 280612-5
    ISSN 1533-7790 ; 0070-3370
    ISSN (online) 1533-7790
    ISSN 0070-3370
    DOI 10.1215/00703370-11216714
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    Zs.B 1487: Show issues Location:
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  2. Article ; Online: Naming the Precious Child: New Evidence of Intentional Family Planning in Historical Populations.

    Goldstein, Joshua R / Stecklov, Guy

    Demography

    2023  Volume 60, Issue 2, Page(s) 493–516

    Abstract: Can the names parents gave their children give us insights into how parents in historical times planned their families? In this study, we explore whether the names given to the firstborn child can be used as indicators of family-size preferences and, if ... ...

    Abstract Can the names parents gave their children give us insights into how parents in historical times planned their families? In this study, we explore whether the names given to the firstborn child can be used as indicators of family-size preferences and, if so, what this reveals about the emergence of intentional family planning over the course of the demographic transition. We analyze historical populations from 1850 to 1940 in the United States, where early fertility control and large sample sizes allow separate analyses of the White and Black populations. We also analyze Norway from 1800 to 1910, where there was a much later fertility transition. A split-sample method allows automated scoring of each name in terms of predicted family size. We find a strong relationship between naming and family size in the U.S. White population as early as 1850, for the Black population beginning in 1940, and for the Norwegian population in 1910. These results provide new evidence of the emergence of "conscious calculation" during the fertility transition. Our methods may also be applicable to modern high-fertility populations in the midst of fertility decline.
    MeSH term(s) Child ; United States ; Humans ; Family Planning Services ; Demography ; Population Dynamics ; Fertility ; Family Characteristics ; Developing Countries ; Economics
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-03-14
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 280612-5
    ISSN 1533-7790 ; 0070-3370
    ISSN (online) 1533-7790
    ISSN 0070-3370
    DOI 10.1215/00703370-10607641
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  3. Article ; Online: CenSoc: Public Linked Administrative Mortality Records for Individual-level Research.

    Breen, Casey F / Osborne, Maria / Goldstein, Joshua R

    Scientific data

    2023  Volume 10, Issue 1, Page(s) 802

    Abstract: In the United States, much has been learned about the determinants of longevity from survey data and aggregated tabulations. However, the lack of large-scale, individual-level administrative mortality records has proven to be a barrier to further ... ...

    Abstract In the United States, much has been learned about the determinants of longevity from survey data and aggregated tabulations. However, the lack of large-scale, individual-level administrative mortality records has proven to be a barrier to further progress. We introduce the CenSoc datasets, which link the complete-count 1940 U.S. Census to Social Security mortality records. These datasets-CenSoc-DMF (N = 4.7 million) and CenSoc-Numident (N = 7.0 million)-primarily cover deaths among individuals aged 65 and older. The size and richness of CenSoc allows investigators to make new discoveries into geographic, racial, and class-based disparities in old-age mortality in the United States. This article gives an overview of the technical steps taken to construct these datasets, validates them using external aggregate mortality data, and discusses best practices for working with these datasets. The CenSoc datasets are publicly available, enabling new avenues of research into the determinants of mortality disparities in the United States.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Racial Groups ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; Mortality
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-11-15
    Publishing country England
    Document type Dataset ; Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2775191-0
    ISSN 2052-4463 ; 2052-4463
    ISSN (online) 2052-4463
    ISSN 2052-4463
    DOI 10.1038/s41597-023-02713-y
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  4. Article ; Online: Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics.

    Goldstein, Joshua R / Lee, Ronald D

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

    2020  Volume 117, Issue 36, Page(s) 22035–22041

    Abstract: To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact ... ...

    Abstract To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country's rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.
    MeSH term(s) Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/economics ; Coronavirus Infections/mortality ; Cost of Illness ; Demography ; Epidemics/history ; Epidemics/statistics & numerical data ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Mortality ; Pandemics/economics ; Pneumonia, Viral/economics ; Pneumonia, Viral/mortality ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States/epidemiology
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-08-20
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Comparative Study ; Historical Article ; Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
    ZDB-ID 209104-5
    ISSN 1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
    ISSN (online) 1091-6490
    ISSN 0027-8424
    DOI 10.1073/pnas.2006392117
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life.

    Goldstein, Joshua R / Cassidy, Thomas / Wachter, Kenneth W

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

    2021  Volume 118, Issue 11

    Abstract: Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Two criteria based on age are demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against COVID-19 saves the most lives, but, since older ...

    Abstract Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Two criteria based on age are demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against COVID-19 saves the most lives, but, since older age is accompanied by falling life expectancy, it is widely supposed that these two goals are in conflict. We show this to be mistaken. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality are such that vaccinating the oldest first saves the most lives and, surprisingly, also maximizes years of remaining life expectancy. We demonstrate this relationship empirically in the United States, Germany, and South Korea and with mathematical analysis of life tables. Our age-risk results, under usual conditions, also apply to health risks.
    MeSH term(s) Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; COVID-19/mortality ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage ; Female ; Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Risk Factors ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vaccination
    Chemical Substances COVID-19 Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-02-25
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
    ZDB-ID 209104-5
    ISSN 1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
    ISSN (online) 1091-6490
    ISSN 0027-8424
    DOI 10.1073/pnas.2026322118
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    Zs.A 1148: Show issues Location:
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  6. Article ; Online: Reply to Dushoff et al. and Pifarré i Arolas et al.: Age prioritization for COVID-19 vaccination does save lives and years of life.

    Goldstein, Joshua R / Cassidy, Thomas / Wachter, Kenneth W

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

    2021  Volume 118, Issue 29

    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vaccination
    Chemical Substances COVID-19 Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-06-30
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Letter ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 209104-5
    ISSN 1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
    ISSN (online) 1091-6490
    ISSN 0027-8424
    DOI 10.1073/pnas.2107654118
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    Zs.A 1148: Show issues Location:
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  7. Article: Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics

    Goldstein, Joshua R / Lee, Ronald D

    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

    Abstract: To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact ... ...

    Abstract To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country's rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #724515
    Database COVID19

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  8. Article ; Online: Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics.

    Goldstein, Joshua R / Lee, Ronald D

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 117, iss 36

    2020  

    Abstract: To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact ... ...

    Abstract To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country's rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.
    Keywords Humans ; Pneumonia ; Viral ; Coronavirus Infections ; Life Expectancy ; Mortality ; Demography ; Cost of Illness ; History ; 20th Century ; 21st Century ; United States ; Epidemics ; Pandemics ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; epidemic ; covid19
    Publishing date 2020-09-01
    Publisher eScholarship, University of California
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Article ; Online: Lives Saved from Age-Prioritised COVID-19 Vaccination

    Goldstein, Joshua R / Mahmud, Ayesha / Cassidy, Thomas

    medRxiv

    Abstract: BACKGROUND The criteria used to allocate scarce COVID-19 vaccines are hotly contested. While some are pushing just to get vaccines into arms as quickly as possible, others advocate prioritization in terms of risk. OBJECTIVE Our aim is to use demographic ... ...

    Abstract BACKGROUND The criteria used to allocate scarce COVID-19 vaccines are hotly contested. While some are pushing just to get vaccines into arms as quickly as possible, others advocate prioritization in terms of risk. OBJECTIVE Our aim is to use demographic models to show the enormous potential of vaccine risk-prioritization in saving lives. METHODS We develop a simple mathematical model that accounts for the age distribution of the population and of COVID-19 mortality. This model considers only the direct live-savings for those who receive the vaccine, and does not account for possible indirect effects of vaccination. We apply this model to the United States, Japan, and Bangladesh. RESULTS In the United States, we find age-prioritization would reduce deaths during a vaccine campaign by about 93 percent relative to no vaccine and 85 percent relative to age-neutral vaccine distribution. In countries with younger age structures, such as Bangladesh, the benefits of age-prioritization are even greater. CONTRIBUTION For policy makers, our findings give additional support to risk-prioritized allocation of COVID-19 vaccines. For demographers, our results show how the age-structures of the population and of disease mortality combine into an expression of risk concentration that shows the benefits of prioritized allocation. This measure can also be used to study the effects of prioritizing other dimensions of risk such as underlying health conditions.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-03-22
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2021.03.19.21253991
    Database COVID19

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  10. Article ; Online: A secular trend toward earlier male sexual maturity: evidence from shifting ages of male young adult mortality.

    Goldstein, Joshua R

    PloS one

    2011  Volume 6, Issue 8, Page(s) e14826

    Abstract: This paper shows new evidence of a steady long-term decline in age of male sexual maturity since at least the mid-eighteenth century. A method for measuring the timing of male maturity is developed based on the age at which male young adult mortality ... ...

    Abstract This paper shows new evidence of a steady long-term decline in age of male sexual maturity since at least the mid-eighteenth century. A method for measuring the timing of male maturity is developed based on the age at which male young adult mortality accelerates. The method is applied to mortality data from Sweden, Denmark, Norway, the United Kingdom, and Italy. The secular trend toward earlier male sexual maturity parallels the trend toward earlier menarche for females, suggesting that common environmental cues influence the speed of both males' and females' sexual maturation.
    MeSH term(s) Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Denmark ; Female ; Humans ; Italy ; Male ; Menarche/physiology ; Norway ; Puberty/physiology ; Sex Factors ; Sexual Maturation/physiology ; Sweden ; United Kingdom ; Young Adult
    Language English
    Publishing date 2011-08-17
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2267670-3
    ISSN 1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
    ISSN (online) 1932-6203
    ISSN 1932-6203
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0014826
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