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  1. Article ; Online: Climate change impacts model parameter sensitivity–implications for calibration strategy and model diagnostic evaluation

    Melsen, L. / Guse, B.

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

    2021  

    Abstract: Hydrological models are useful tools for exploring the impact of climate change. To prioritize parameters for calibration and to evaluate hydrological model functioning, sensitivity analysis can be conducted. Parameter sensitivity, however, varies over ... ...

    Abstract Hydrological models are useful tools for exploring the impact of climate change. To prioritize parameters for calibration and to evaluate hydrological model functioning, sensitivity analysis can be conducted. Parameter sensitivity, however, varies over climate, and therefore climate change could influence parameter sensitivity. In this study we explore the change in parameter sensitivity for the mean discharge and the timing of the discharge, within a plausible climate change rate. We investigate whether changes in sensitivity propagate into the calibration strategy and diagnostically compare three hydrological models based on the sensitivity results. We employed three frequently used hydrological models (SAC, VIC, and HBV) and explored parameter sensitivity changes across 605 catchments in the United States by comparing GCM(RCP8.5)-forced historical and future periods. Consistent among all hydrological models and both for the mean discharge and the timing of the discharge is that the sensitivity of snow parameters decreases in the future. Which other parameters increase in sensitivity is less consistent among the hydrological models. In 45 % to 55 % of the catchments, dependent on the hydrological model, at least one parameter changes in the future in the top-5 most sensitive parameters for mean discharge. For the timing, this varies between 40 % and 88 %. This requires an adapted calibration strategy for long-term projections, for which we provide several suggestions. The disagreement among the models on the processes that become more relevant in future projections also calls for a strict evaluation of the adequacy of the model structure for long-term simulations.
    Subject code 550
    Publishing country de
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: Modeling the influence of climate on groundwater flow and heat regime in Brandenburg (Germany)

    Tsypin, M. / Cacace, M. / Guse, B. / Güntner, A. / Scheck-Wenderoth, M.

    Frontiers in Water

    2024  

    Abstract: This study investigates the decades-long evolution of groundwater dynamics and thermal field in the North German Basin beneath Brandenburg (NE Germany) by coupling a distributed hydrologic model with a 3D groundwater model. We found that hydraulic ... ...

    Abstract This study investigates the decades-long evolution of groundwater dynamics and thermal field in the North German Basin beneath Brandenburg (NE Germany) by coupling a distributed hydrologic model with a 3D groundwater model. We found that hydraulic gradients, acting as the main driver of the groundwater flow in the studied basin, are not exclusively influenced by present-day topographic gradients. Instead, structural dip and stratification of rock units and the presence of permeability contrasts and anisotropy are important co-players affecting the flow in deep seated saline aquifers at depths >500 m. In contrast, recharge variability and anthropogenic activities contribute to groundwater dynamics in the shallow (<500 m) freshwater Quaternary aquifers. Recharge fluxes, as derived from the hydrologic model and assigned to the parametrized regional groundwater model, reproduce magnitudes of recorded seasonal groundwater level changes. Nonetheless, observed instances of inter-annual fluctuations and a gradual decline of groundwater levels highlight the need to consider damping of the recharge signal and additional sinks, like pumping, in the model, in order to reconcile long-term groundwater level trends. Seasonal changes in near-surface groundwater temperature and the continuous warming due to conductive heat exchange with the atmosphere are locally enhanced by forced advection, especially in areas of high hydraulic gradients. The main factors controlling the depth of temperature disturbance include the magnitude of surface temperature variations, the subsurface permeability field, and the rate of recharge. Our results demonstrate the maximum depth extent and the response times of the groundwater system subjected to non-linear interactions between local geological variability and climate conditions.
    Subject code 550
    Publishing country de
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Book ; Article ; Online: Transient 3D groundwater and temperature model of the North German Basin below the State of Brandenburg (1953-2014)

    Tsypin, M. / Cacace, M. / Guse, B. / Güntner, A. / Scheck-Wenderoth, M.

    2024  

    Abstract: The dataset is the basis for describing a 60-year-long evolution of groundwater dynamics and thermal field in the North German Basin beneath the Federal State of Brandenburg (NE Germany), covering the period between 1953 and 2014 with monthly increments. ...

    Abstract The dataset is the basis for describing a 60-year-long evolution of groundwater dynamics and thermal field in the North German Basin beneath the Federal State of Brandenburg (NE Germany), covering the period between 1953 and 2014 with monthly increments. It was produced by one-way coupling of a near-surface distributed hydrologic model to a 3D basin-scale thermohydraulic groundwater model with the goal of investigating feedbacks between climate-driven forcing (in terms of time- and space-varying recharge and temperature), basin-scale geology, and topographic gradients. Modeled pressure and temperature distributions are validated against published groundwater level and temperature time series from observation wells. Our results indicate the spatio-temporal extent of the groundwater system subjected to nonlinear interactions between local geological variability and climate conditions. The dataset comprises of input files and scripts required to run the groundwater model in GOLEM and output files from the transient thermo-hydraulic simulations in EXODUS format. The input and output data is organized as separate archived folders (*.gz format).
    Subject code 550
    Publisher GFZ Data Services
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Conference proceedings: [No title information]

    Broch, R / Guse, B / Langenstein, J / Bauer, N / Hazuchova, K

    Tierärztliche Praxis Ausgabe K: Kleintiere / Heimtiere

    2023  Volume 51, Issue 01

    Event/congress 31. Jahrestagung der FG „Innere Medizin und klinische Labordiagnostik“ der DVG (InnLab) - Teil 1: Vorträge, online, 2023-02-03
    Language German
    Publishing date 2023-02-01
    Publisher Georg Thieme Verlag
    Publishing place Stuttgart ; New York
    Document type Article ; Conference proceedings
    ISSN 2567-5842 ; 1434-1239
    ISSN (online) 2567-5842
    ISSN 1434-1239
    DOI 10.1055/s-0043-1760792
    Database Thieme publisher's database

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  5. Article ; Conference proceedings: [No title information]

    Guse, B / Broch, R / Langenstein, J / Bauer, N / Hazuchova, K

    Tierärztliche Praxis Ausgabe K: Kleintiere / Heimtiere

    2023  Volume 51, Issue 01

    Event/congress 31. Jahrestagung der FG „Innere Medizin und klinische Labordiagnostik“ der DVG (InnLab) - Teil 1: Vorträge, online, 2023-02-03
    Language German
    Publishing date 2023-02-01
    Publisher Georg Thieme Verlag
    Publishing place Stuttgart ; New York
    Document type Article ; Conference proceedings
    ISSN 2567-5842 ; 1434-1239
    ISSN (online) 2567-5842
    ISSN 1434-1239
    DOI 10.1055/s-0043-1760791
    Database Thieme publisher's database

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  6. Conference proceedings ; Online: Process-based flood risk assessment in German basins for future climate

    Vorogushyn, S. / Nguyen, D. / Nissen, K. / Guse, B. / Merz, B.

    XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)

    2023  

    Abstract: Future changes in regional climate due to global warming can result in changes of extreme floods. While change assessments of climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation abound, regional estimations of projected flood impact variables, such ...

    Abstract Future changes in regional climate due to global warming can result in changes of extreme floods. While change assessments of climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation abound, regional estimations of projected flood impact variables, such as river discharges, inundation extent and depths and flood losses, are rare. We apply the Regional Flood Model (RFM) to assess the projected changes of flood risk for Germany. RFM consists of a model chain covering all major flood impact processes – from a triggering meteorological event to inundation and damage. To this end, a multi-variate stochastic weather generator conditioned on circulation patterns and regional temperature deduced from global climate models is developed to generate long spatially consistent synthetic series of precipitation. The non-stationary weather generator thus considers dynamic and thermo-dynamic change signals simulated by the global climate models. Projected future changes in flood impact variables are estimated for an ensemble of the climate models, two shared socioeconomic pathways and two future periods up to 2100. Changes in climate are then propagated through a process-based hydrological, a coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic and flood damage model of RFM to estimate flood impact and risk shifts. The analysis reveals specific circulation patterns responsible for flood changes in winter and summer seasons.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-07-11
    Publishing country de
    Document type Conference proceedings ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  7. Article ; Online: Wie entstehen überraschende Extremhochwasser? Einflussfaktoren der tail heaviness bei Hochwasserverteilungen. ; How are surprising extreme floods generated? Factors affecting tail heaviness of flood distributions

    Vorogushyn, S. / Guse, B. / Macdonald, E. / Wietzke, L. / Merz, B.

    Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung

    2023  

    Abstract: Die verlässliche Bestimmung von Hochwasserwahrscheinlichkeiten bleibt eine wichtige Frage für die Wasserwirtschaft und das Hochwasserrisikomanagement. Dies wurde angesichts des letzten extremen und überraschenden Hochwassers im Juli 2021 in ... ...

    Abstract Die verlässliche Bestimmung von Hochwasserwahrscheinlichkeiten bleibt eine wichtige Frage für die Wasserwirtschaft und das Hochwasserrisikomanagement. Dies wurde angesichts des letzten extremen und überraschenden Hochwassers im Juli 2021 in Westdeutschland wieder deutlich. Dieser Artikel fasst Ergebnisse des Teilprojekts 3 der DFG-Forschungsgruppe SPATE (Space-Time Dynamics of Extreme Floods) zusammen. Das Teilprojekt untersuchte die Faktoren, die die Randschwere von Hochwasserverteilungen, die sogenannte tail heaviness, beeinflussen. Bei Verteilungen mit heavy tail haben extreme Ereignisse eine höhere Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit als bei exponentiell abfallenden Verteilungen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Hochwasserverteilungen in knapp zwei Dritteln der untersuchten Einzugsgebiete in Deutschland und Österreich heavy tails aufweisen, ebenso die Verteilungen von Starkniederschlägen an den meisten Klimastationen in Deutschland. Es wurden Ereignis- und Einzugsgebietsfaktoren identifiziert, die auf heavy tails der Hochwasserverteilungen hindeuten, auch wenn diese aus kurzen Abflusszeitreihen nicht verlässlich bestimmt werden können. Schließlich zeigte die Untersuchung an insgesamt 37 Mündungen von Flüssen in Deutschland, dass die Überlagerung von Hochwasserwellen kein maßgeblicher Mechanismus der Entstehung von heavy-tail-Verteilungen an deutschen Flüssen ist.
    Publishing country de
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article ; Online: Distinct indicators of land use and hydrology characterize different aspects of riverine phytoplankton communities

    Qu, Y. / Wu, N. / Guse, B. / Fohrer, N.

    Science of the Total Environment

    2022  

    Abstract: Given the many threats to freshwater biodiversity, we need to be able to resolve which of the multiple stressors present in rivers are most important in driving change. Phytoplankton are a key component of the aquatic ecosystem, their abundance, species ... ...

    Abstract Given the many threats to freshwater biodiversity, we need to be able to resolve which of the multiple stressors present in rivers are most important in driving change. Phytoplankton are a key component of the aquatic ecosystem, their abundance, species richness and functional richness are important indicators of ecosystem health. In this study, spatial variables, physiochemical conditions, water flow alterations and land use patterns were considered as the joint stressors from a lowland rural catchment. A modeling approach combining an ecohydrological model with machine learning was applied. The results implied that land use and flow regime, rather than nutrients, were most important in explaining differences in the phytoplankton community. In particular, the percentage of water body area and medium level residential urban area were key to driving the rising phytoplankton abundance in this rural catchment. The proportion of forest and pasture area were the leading factors controlling the variations of species richness. In this case deciduous forest cover affected the species richness in a positive way, while, pasture share had a negative effect. Indicators of hydrological alteration were found to be the best predictors for the differences in functional richness. This integrated model framework was found to be suitable for analysis of complex environmental conditions in river basin management. A key message would be the significance of forest area preservation and ecohydrological restoration in maintaining both phytoplankton richness and their functional role in river ecosystems.
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing country de
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Article: Improving Information Extraction From Simulated Discharge Using Sensitivity‐Weighted Performance Criteria

    Guse, B. / Pfannerstill, M. / Fohrer, N. / Gupta, H.

    Water resources research. 2020 Sept., v. 56, no. 9

    2020  

    Abstract: Due to seasonal or interannual variability, the relevance of hydrological processes and of the associated model parameters can vary significantly throughout the simulation period. To achieve accurately identified model parameters, temporal variations in ... ...

    Abstract Due to seasonal or interannual variability, the relevance of hydrological processes and of the associated model parameters can vary significantly throughout the simulation period. To achieve accurately identified model parameters, temporal variations in parameter dominance should be taken into account. This is not achieved if performance criteria are applied to the entire model output time series. Even when using complementary performance criteria, it is often only possible to identify some of the model parameters precisely. We present an innovative approach to improve parameter identifiability that exploits the information available regarding temporal variations in parameter dominance. Using daily parameter sensitivity time series, we construct a set of sensitivity‐weighted performance criteria, one for each parameter, whereby periods of higher dominance of a model parameter and its corresponding process are assigned higher weights in the calculation of the associated performance criterion. These criteria are used to impose constraints on parameter values. We demonstrate this approach by constraining 12 model parameters for three catchments and examine ensemble hydrological simulations generated using these constrained parameter sets. The sensitivity‐weighted approach improves in particular the identifiability for parameters whose corresponding processes are dominant only for short periods of time or have strong seasonal patterns. This results overall in slight improvement of model performance for a set of 10 contrasting performance criteria. We conclude that the sensitivity‐weighted approach improves the extraction of hydrologically relevant information from data, thereby resulting in improved parameter identifiability and better representation of model parameters.
    Keywords model validation ; models ; research ; time series analysis ; water
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2020-09
    Publishing place John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
    Document type Article
    Note JOURNAL ARTICLE
    ZDB-ID 5564-5
    ISSN 1944-7973 ; 0043-1397
    ISSN (online) 1944-7973
    ISSN 0043-1397
    DOI 10.1029/2019WR025605
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  10. Article ; Online: Distinct indicators of land use and hydrology characterize different aspects of riverine phytoplankton communities.

    Qu, Yueming / Wu, Naicheng / Guse, Björn / Fohrer, Nicola

    The Science of the total environment

    2022  Volume 851, Issue Pt 2, Page(s) 158209

    Abstract: Given the many threats to freshwater biodiversity, we need to be able to resolve which of the multiple stressors present in rivers are most important in driving change. Phytoplankton are a key component of the aquatic ecosystem, their abundance, species ... ...

    Abstract Given the many threats to freshwater biodiversity, we need to be able to resolve which of the multiple stressors present in rivers are most important in driving change. Phytoplankton are a key component of the aquatic ecosystem, their abundance, species richness and functional richness are important indicators of ecosystem health. In this study, spatial variables, physiochemical conditions, water flow alterations and land use patterns were considered as the joint stressors from a lowland rural catchment. A modeling approach combining an ecohydrological model with machine learning was applied. The results implied that land use and flow regime, rather than nutrients, were most important in explaining differences in the phytoplankton community. In particular, the percentage of water body area and medium level residential urban area were key to driving the rising phytoplankton abundance in this rural catchment. The proportion of forest and pasture area were the leading factors controlling the variations of species richness. In this case deciduous forest cover affected the species richness in a positive way, while, pasture share had a negative effect. Indicators of hydrological alteration were found to be the best predictors for the differences in functional richness. This integrated model framework was found to be suitable for analysis of complex environmental conditions in river basin management. A key message would be the significance of forest area preservation and ecohydrological restoration in maintaining both phytoplankton richness and their functional role in river ecosystems.
    MeSH term(s) Hydrology ; Phytoplankton ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Rivers/chemistry ; Biodiversity ; Water
    Chemical Substances Water (059QF0KO0R)
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-08-29
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 121506-1
    ISSN 1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
    ISSN (online) 1879-1026
    ISSN 0048-9697
    DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158209
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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