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  1. Article ; Online: Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria

    Oliver J. Watson / Mervat Alhaffar / Zaki Mehchy / Charles Whittaker / Zack Akil / Nicholas F. Brazeau / Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg / Arran Hamlet / Hayley A. Thompson / Marc Baguelin / Richard G. FitzJohn / Edward Knock / John A. Lees / Lilith K. Whittles / Thomas Mellan / Peter Winskill / Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team / Natasha Howard / Hannah Clapham /
    Francesco Checchi / Neil Ferguson / Azra Ghani / Emma Beals / Patrick Walker

    Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2021  Volume 10

    Abstract: Reported COVID-19 mortality rates have been relatively low in Syria, but there has been concern about overwhelmed health systems. Here, the authors use community mortality indicators and estimate that <3% of COVID-19 deaths in Damascus were reported as ... ...

    Abstract Reported COVID-19 mortality rates have been relatively low in Syria, but there has been concern about overwhelmed health systems. Here, the authors use community mortality indicators and estimate that <3% of COVID-19 deaths in Damascus were reported as of 2 September 2020.
    Keywords Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-04-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment [version 2; peer review

    Kylie E. C. Ainslie / Caroline E. Walters / Han Fu / Sangeeta Bhatia / Haowei Wang / Xiaoyue Xi / Marc Baguelin / Samir Bhatt / Adhiratha Boonyasiri / Olivia Boyd / Lorenzo Cattarino / Constanze Ciavarella / Zulma Cucunuba / Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg / Amy Dighe / Ilaria Dorigatti / Sabine L van Elsland / Rich FitzJohn / Katy Gaythorpe /
    Azra C Ghani / Will Green / Arran Hamlet / Wes Hinsley / Natsuko Imai / David Jorgensen / Edward Knock / Daniel Laydon / Gemma Nedjati-Gilani / Lucy C Okell / Igor Siveroni / Hayley A Thompson / H. Juliette T. Unwin / Robert Verity / Michaela Vollmer / Patrick G T Walker / Yuanrong Wang / Oliver J Watson / Charles Whittaker / Peter Winskill / Christl A Donnelly / Neil M Ferguson / Steven Riley

    Wellcome Open Research, Vol

    2 approved]

    2020  Volume 5

    Abstract: Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city ...

    Abstract Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. Methods: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Results: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. Conclusions: Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q ; covid19
    Subject code 950
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Wellcome
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article ; Online: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment [version 1; peer review

    Kylie E C Ainslie / Caroline E. Walters / Han Fu / Sangeeta Bhatia / Haowei Wang / Xiaoyue Xi / Marc Baguelin / Samir Bhatt / Adhiratha Boonyasiri / Olivia Boyd / Lorenzo Cattarino / Constanze Ciavarella / Zulma Cucunuba / Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg / Amy Dighe / Ilaria Dorigatti / Sabine L van Elsland / Rich FitzJohn / Katy Gaythorpe /
    Azra C Ghani / Will Green / Arran Hamlet / Wes Hinsley / Natsuko Imai / David Jorgensen / Edward Knock / Daniel Laydon / Gemma Nedjati-Gilani / Lucy C Okell / Igor Siveroni / Hayley A Thompson / H Juliette T Unwin / Robert Verity / Michaela Vollmer / Patrick G T Walker / Yuanrong Wang / Oliver J Watson / Charles Whittaker / Peter Winskill / Christl A Donnelly / Neil M Ferguson / Steven Riley

    Wellcome Open Research, Vol

    2 approved]

    2020  Volume 5

    Abstract: Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city ...

    Abstract Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. Methods: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Results: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. Conclusions: Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 950
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Wellcome
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

    Full text online

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    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

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  4. Article ; Online: Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions

    Amy Dighe / Lorenzo Cattarino / Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg / Janetta Skarp / Natsuko Imai / Sangeeta Bhatia / Katy A. M. Gaythorpe / Kylie E. C. Ainslie / Marc Baguelin / Samir Bhatt / Adhiratha Boonyasiri / Nicholas F. Brazeau / Laura V. Cooper / Helen Coupland / Zulma Cucunuba / Ilaria Dorigatti / Oliver D. Eales / Sabine L. van Elsland / Richard G. FitzJohn /
    William D. Green / David J. Haw / Wes Hinsley / Edward Knock / Daniel J. Laydon / Thomas Mellan / Swapnil Mishra / Gemma Nedjati-Gilani / Pierre Nouvellet / Margarita Pons-Salort / Hayley A. Thompson / H. Juliette T. Unwin / Robert Verity / Michaela A. C. Vollmer / Caroline E. Walters / Oliver J. Watson / Charles Whittaker / Lilith K. Whittles / Azra C. Ghani / Christl A. Donnelly / Neil M. Ferguson / Steven Riley

    BMC Medicine, Vol 18, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2020  Volume 12

    Abstract: Abstract Background After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Background After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their “test, trace, isolate” strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea’s outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. Methods We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, R t , using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. Results We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, R t dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64–2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, R t was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent “lockdown” measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. Conclusions Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea’s successful outbreak control, other factors including regional ...
    Keywords COVID-19 ; South Korea ; Public health interventions ; Reproduction number ; Contact tracing ; Medicine ; R ; covid19
    Subject code 306
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher BMC
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article ; Online: State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States

    H. Juliette T. Unwin / Swapnil Mishra / Valerie C. Bradley / Axel Gandy / Thomas A. Mellan / Helen Coupland / Jonathan Ish-Horowicz / Michaela A. C. Vollmer / Charles Whittaker / Sarah L. Filippi / Xiaoyue Xi / Mélodie Monod / Oliver Ratmann / Michael Hutchinson / Fabian Valka / Harrison Zhu / Iwona Hawryluk / Philip Milton / Kylie E. C. Ainslie /
    Marc Baguelin / Adhiratha Boonyasiri / Nick F. Brazeau / Lorenzo Cattarino / Zulma Cucunuba / Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg / Ilaria Dorigatti / Oliver D. Eales / Jeffrey W. Eaton / Sabine L. van Elsland / Richard G. FitzJohn / Katy A. M. Gaythorpe / William Green / Wes Hinsley / Benjamin Jeffrey / Edward Knock / Daniel J. Laydon / John Lees / Gemma Nedjati-Gilani / Pierre Nouvellet / Lucy Okell / Kris V. Parag / Igor Siveroni / Hayley A. Thompson / Patrick Walker / Caroline E. Walters / Oliver J. Watson / Lilith K. Whittles / Azra C. Ghani / Neil M. Ferguson / Steven Riley / Christl A. Donnelly / Samir Bhatt / Seth Flaxman

    Nature Communications, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2020  Volume 9

    Abstract: High numbers of COVID-19-related deaths have been reported in the United States, but estimation of the true numbers of infections is challenging. Here, the authors estimate that on 1 June 2020, 3.7% of the US population was infected with SARS-CoV-2, and ... ...

    Abstract High numbers of COVID-19-related deaths have been reported in the United States, but estimation of the true numbers of infections is challenging. Here, the authors estimate that on 1 June 2020, 3.7% of the US population was infected with SARS-CoV-2, and 0.01% was infectious, with wide variation by state.
    Keywords Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article ; Online: Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries

    Alexandra B Hogan, PhD / Britta L Jewell, PhD / Ellie Sherrard-Smith, PhD / Juan F Vesga, PhD / Oliver J Watson, PhD / Charles Whittaker, MSc / Arran Hamlet, PhD / Jennifer A Smith, DPhil / Peter Winskill, PhD / Robert Verity, PhD / Marc Baguelin, PhD / John A Lees, PhD / Lilith K Whittles, PhD / Kylie E C Ainslie, PhD / Samir Bhatt, DPhil / Adhiratha Boonyasiri, MD / Nicholas F Brazeau, PhD / Lorenzo Cattarino, PhD / Laura V Cooper, MPhil /
    Helen Coupland, MRes / Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, MMath / Amy Dighe, MRes / Bimandra A Djaafara, MRes / Christl A Donnelly, ProfScD / Jeff W Eaton, PhD / Sabine L van Elsland, PhD / Richard G FitzJohn, PhD / Han Fu, PhD / Katy A M Gaythorpe, PhD / William Green, MRes / David J Haw, PhD / Sarah Hayes, MSc / Wes Hinsley, PhD / Natsuko Imai, PhD / Daniel J Laydon, PhD / Tara D Mangal, PhD / Thomas A Mellan, PhD / Swapnil Mishra, PhD / Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, PhD / Kris V Parag, PhD / Hayley A Thompson, MPH / H Juliette T Unwin, PhD / Michaela A C Vollmer, PhD / Caroline E Walters, PhD / Haowei Wang, MSc / Yuanrong Wang / Xiaoyue Xi, MSc / Neil M Ferguson, ProfDPhil / Lucy C Okell, PhD / Thomas S Churcher, PhD

    The Lancet Global Health, Vol 8, Iss 9, Pp e1132-e

    a modelling study

    2020  Volume 1141

    Abstract: Summary: Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which ... ...

    Abstract Summary: Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. Methods: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. Interpretation: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding: ...
    Keywords Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270 ; covid19
    Subject code 306
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-09-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Elsevier
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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