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Article ; Online: An analytically tractable, age-structured model of the impact of vector control on mosquito-transmitted infections.

Davis, Emma L / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre / Keeling, Matt J

2024 Volume 20, Issue 3, Page(s) e1011440

Abstract: Vector control is a vital tool utilised by malaria control and elimination programmes worldwide, and as such it is important that we can accurately quantify the expected public health impact of these methods. There are very few previous models that ... ...

Abstract	Vector control is a vital tool utilised by malaria control and elimination programmes worldwide, and as such it is important that we can accurately quantify the expected public health impact of these methods. There are very few previous models that consider vector-control-induced changes in the age-structure of the vector population and the resulting impact on transmission. We analytically derive the steady-state solution of a novel age-structured deterministic compartmental model describing the mosquito feeding cycle, with mosquito age represented discretely by parity-the number of cycles (or successful bloodmeals) completed. Our key model output comprises an explicit, analytically tractable solution that can be used to directly quantify key transmission statistics, such as the effective reproductive ratio under control, Rc, and investigate the age-structured impact of vector control. Application of this model reinforces current knowledge that adult-acting interventions, such as indoor residual spraying of insecticides (IRS) or long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), can be highly effective at reducing transmission, due to the dual effects of repelling and killing mosquitoes. We also demonstrate how larval measures can be implemented in addition to adult-acting measures to reduce Rc and mitigate the impact of waning insecticidal efficacy, as well as how mid-ranges of LLIN coverage are likely to experience the largest effect of reduced net integrity on transmission. We conclude that whilst well-maintained adult-acting vector control measures are substantially more effective than larval-based interventions, incorporating larval control in existing LLIN or IRS programmes could substantially reduce transmission and help mitigate any waning effects of adult-acting measures.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Animals ; Humans ; Anopheles ; Mosquito Control/methods ; Mosquito Vectors ; Insecticides/pharmacology ; Malaria/epidemiology
Chemical Substances	Insecticides
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-14
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2193340-6
ISSN	1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
ISSN (online)	1553-7358
ISSN	1553-734X
DOI	10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011440
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Article ; Online: New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases.

Vasconcelos, Andreia / Nunes-Alves, Cláudio / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

2024 Volume 78, Issue Supplement_2, Page(s) S77–S82

Abstract: The World Health Organization roadmap for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) sets out ambitious targets for disease control and elimination by 2030, including 90% fewer people requiring interventions against NTDs and the elimination of at least 1 NTD in ... ...

Abstract	The World Health Organization roadmap for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) sets out ambitious targets for disease control and elimination by 2030, including 90% fewer people requiring interventions against NTDs and the elimination of at least 1 NTD in 100 countries. Mathematical models are an important tool for understanding NTD dynamics, optimizing interventions, assessing the efficacy of new tools, and estimating the economic costs associated with control programs. As NTD control shifts to increased country ownership and programs progress toward disease elimination, tailored models that better incorporate local context and can help to address questions that are important for decision-making at the national level are gaining importance. In this introduction to the supplement, New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases, we discuss current challenges in generating more locally relevant models and summarize how the articles in this supplement present novel ways in which NTD modeling can help to accelerate achievement and sustainability of the 2030 targets.
MeSH term(s)	Neglected Diseases/prevention & control ; Humans ; Tropical Medicine ; World Health Organization ; Disease Eradication/methods ; Global Health ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Models, Theoretical
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-25
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Introductory Journal Article ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1099781-7
ISSN	1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
ISSN (online)	1537-6591
ISSN	1058-4838
DOI	10.1093/cid/ciae070
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Article ; Online: Using Passive Surveillance to Maintain Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Model-Based Exploration.

Minter, Amanda / Medley, Graham F / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

2024 Volume 78, Issue Supplement_2, Page(s) S169–S174

Abstract: Background: Great progress is being made toward the goal of elimination as a public health problem for neglected tropical diseases such as leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, Buruli ulcer, and visceral leishmaniasis, which relies on intensified ... ...

Abstract	Background: Great progress is being made toward the goal of elimination as a public health problem for neglected tropical diseases such as leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, Buruli ulcer, and visceral leishmaniasis, which relies on intensified disease management and case finding. However, strategies for maintaining this goal are still under discussion. Passive surveillance is a core pillar of a long-term, sustainable surveillance program. Methods: We use a generic model of disease transmission with slow epidemic growth rates and cases detected through severe symptoms and passive detection to evaluate under what circumstances passive detection alone can keep transmission under control. Results: Reducing the period of infectiousness due to decreasing time to treatment has a small effect on reducing transmission. Therefore, to prevent resurgence, passive surveillance needs to be very efficient. For some diseases, the treatment time and level of passive detection needed to prevent resurgence is unlikely to be obtainable. Conclusions: The success of a passive surveillance program crucially depends on what proportion of cases are detected, how much of their infectious period is reduced, and the underlying reproduction number of the disease. Modeling suggests that relying on passive detection alone is unlikely to be enough to maintain elimination goals.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology ; Neglected Diseases/prevention & control ; Disease Eradication/methods ; Public Health ; Tropical Medicine ; Population Surveillance/methods
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-25
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1099781-7
ISSN	1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
ISSN (online)	1537-6591
ISSN	1058-4838
DOI	10.1093/cid/ciae097
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Article ; Online: Counting Down the 2020 Goals for 9 Neglected Tropical Diseases: What Have We Learned From Quantitative Analysis and Transmission Modeling?

Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

2018 Volume 66, Issue suppl_4, Page(s) S237–S244

Abstract: The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has received huge investment in recent years, leading to large reductions in morbidity. In 2012, the World Health Organization set ambitious targets for eliminating many of these diseases as a public ... ...

Abstract	The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has received huge investment in recent years, leading to large reductions in morbidity. In 2012, the World Health Organization set ambitious targets for eliminating many of these diseases as a public health problem by 2020, an aspiration that was supported by donations of treatments, intervention materials, and funding committed by a broad partnership of stakeholders in the London Declaration on NTDs. Alongside these efforts, there has been an increasing role for quantitative analysis and modeling to support the achievement of these goals through evaluation of the likely impact of interventions, the factors that could undermine these achievements, and the role of new diagnostics and treatments in reducing transmission. In this special issue, we aim to summarize those insights in an accessible way. This article acts as an introduction to the special issue, outlining key concepts in NTDs and insights from modeling as we approach 2020.
MeSH term(s)	Disease Eradication ; Evaluation Studies as Topic ; Goals ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Neglected Diseases/diagnosis ; Neglected Diseases/prevention & control ; Public Health ; Tropical Medicine ; World Health Organization
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-06-01
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Introductory Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1099781-7
ISSN	1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
ISSN (online)	1537-6591
ISSN	1058-4838
DOI	10.1093/cid/ciy284
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Article ; Online: Epidemic interventions: insights from classic results.

Gog, Julia R / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences

2021 Volume 376, Issue 1829, Page(s) 20200263

Abstract: Analytical expressions and approximations from simple models have performed a pivotal role in our understanding of infectious disease epidemiology. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, while there has been proliferation of increasingly complex models, ... ...

Abstract	Analytical expressions and approximations from simple models have performed a pivotal role in our understanding of infectious disease epidemiology. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, while there has been proliferation of increasingly complex models, still the most basic models have provided the core framework for our thinking and interpreting policy decisions. Here, classic results are presented that give insights into both the role of transmission-reducing interventions (such as social distancing) in controlling an emerging epidemic, and also what would happen if insufficient control is applied. Though these are simple results from the most basic of epidemic models, they give valuable benchmarks for comparison with the outputs of more complex modelling approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/virology ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; Physical Distancing ; SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity ; Travel ; United Kingdom/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-31
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	208382-6
ISSN	1471-2970 ; 0080-4622 ; 0264-3839 ; 0962-8436
ISSN (online)	1471-2970
ISSN	0080-4622 ; 0264-3839 ; 0962-8436
DOI	10.1098/rstb.2020.0263
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Article ; Online: The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis.

Rock, Kat S / Chapman, Lloyd A C / Dobson, Andrew P / Adams, Emily R / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

2024 Volume 78, Issue Supplement_2, Page(s) S175–S182

Abstract: Background: Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions ... ...

Abstract	Background: Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions rarely target asymptomatic individuals. Methods: We develop a generic mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian sub-continent (VL), gambiense sleeping sickness (gHAT), and Chagas disease and use it to assess the possible contribution of asymptomatics who later develop disease (pre-symptomatics) and those who do not (non-symptomatics) to the maintenance of infection. Plausible interventions, including active screening, vector control, and reduced time to detection, are simulated for the three diseases. Results: We found that the high asymptomatic contribution to transmission for Chagas and gHAT and the apparently high basic reproductive number of VL may undermine long-term control. However, the ability to treat some asymptomatics for Chagas and gHAT should make them more controllable, albeit over relatively long time periods due to the slow dynamics of these diseases. For VL, the toxicity of available therapeutics means the asymptomatic population cannot currently be treated, but combining treatment of symptomatics and vector control could yield a quick reduction in transmission. Conclusions: Despite the uncertainty in natural history, it appears there is already a relatively good toolbox of interventions to eliminate gHAT, and it is likely that Chagas will need improvements to diagnostics and their use to better target pre-symptomatics. The situation for VL is less clear, and model predictions could be improved by additional empirical data. However, interventions may have to improve to successfully eliminate this disease.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Neglected Diseases/prevention & control ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology ; Chagas Disease/transmission ; Chagas Disease/prevention & control ; Chagas Disease/epidemiology ; Chagas Disease/drug therapy ; Asymptomatic Infections/epidemiology ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral/prevention & control ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral/epidemiology ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral/transmission ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral/drug therapy ; Models, Theoretical ; Trypanosomiasis, African/prevention & control ; Trypanosomiasis, African/epidemiology ; Trypanosomiasis, African/transmission ; Trypanosomiasis, African/drug therapy ; India/epidemiology ; Animals
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-25
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1099781-7
ISSN	1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
ISSN (online)	1537-6591
ISSN	1058-4838
DOI	10.1093/cid/ciae096
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Article ; Online: Introduction to the special issue: challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs.

Forbes, Kathryn / Basáñez, Maria-Gloria / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre / Anderson, Roy M

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences

2023 Volume 378, Issue 1887, Page(s) 20220272

Abstract: Twenty neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are currently prioritised by the World Health Organization for eradication, elimination as a public health problem, elimination of transmission or control by 2030. This issue celebrates progress made since the ... ...

Abstract	Twenty neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are currently prioritised by the World Health Organization for eradication, elimination as a public health problem, elimination of transmission or control by 2030. This issue celebrates progress made since the 2012 London Declaration on NTDs and discusses challenges currently faced to achieve these goals. It comprises 14 contributions spanning NTDs tackled by intensified disease management to those addressed by preventive chemotherapy. Although COVID-19 negatively affected NTD programmes, it also served to spur new multisectoral approaches to strengthen school-based health systems. The issue highlights the needs to improve impact survey design, evaluate new diagnostics, understand the consequences of heterogeneous prevalence and human movement, the potential impact of alternative treatment strategies and the importance of zoonotic transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; London/epidemiology ; Movement ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology ; Neglected Diseases/prevention & control
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-21
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	208382-6
ISSN	1471-2970 ; 0080-4622 ; 0264-3839 ; 0962-8436
ISSN (online)	1471-2970
ISSN	0080-4622 ; 0264-3839 ; 0962-8436
DOI	10.1098/rstb.2022.0272
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Article ; Online: How universal does universal test and treat have to be?

Baggaley, Rebecca F / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

The lancet. HIV

2020 Volume 7, Issue 5, Page(s) e306–e308

MeSH term(s)	Eswatini ; HIV Infections ; HIV Seropositivity ; HIV-1 ; Humans ; Incidence
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-02-13
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Comment
ISSN	2352-3018
ISSN (online)	2352-3018
DOI	10.1016/S2352-3018(20)30031-X
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Article ; Online: Determining the optimal strategies to achieve elimination of transmission for Schistosoma mansoni.

Kura, Klodeta / Ayabina, Diepreye / Hollingsworth, T Deirdre / Anderson, Roy M

Parasites & vectors

2022 Volume 15, Issue 1, Page(s) 55

Abstract: Background: In January 2021, the World Health Organization published the 2021-2030 roadmap for the control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). The goal for schistosomiasis is to achieve elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) and elimination of ...

Abstract	Background: In January 2021, the World Health Organization published the 2021-2030 roadmap for the control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). The goal for schistosomiasis is to achieve elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) and elimination of transmission (EOT) in 78 and 25 countries (by 2030), respectively. Mass drug administration (MDA) of praziquantel continues to be the main strategy for control and elimination. However, as there is limited availability of praziquantel, it is important to determine what volume of treatments are required, who should be targeted and how frequently treatment must be administered to eliminate either transmission or morbidity caused by infection in different endemic settings with varied transmission intensities. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this paper, we employ two individual-based stochastic models of schistosomiasis transmission developed independently by the Imperial College London (ICL) and University of Oxford (SCHISTOX) to determine the optimal treatment strategies to achieve EOT. We find that treating school-age children (SAC) only is not sufficient to achieve EOT within a feasible time frame, regardless of the transmission setting and observed age-intensity of infection profile. Both models show that community-wide treatment is necessary to interrupt transmission in all endemic settings with low, medium and high pristine transmission intensities. Conclusions: The required MDA coverage level to achieve either transmission or morbidity elimination depends on the prevalence prior to the start of treatment and the burden of infection in adults. The higher the worm burden in adults, the higher the coverage levels required for this age category through community-wide treatment programmes. Therefore, it is important that intensity and prevalence data are collected in each age category, particularly from SAC and adults, so that the correct coverage level can be calculated and administered.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Anthelmintics/therapeutic use ; Humans ; Mass Drug Administration ; Praziquantel/therapeutic use ; Prevalence ; Schistosoma mansoni ; Schistosomiasis/drug therapy ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/drug therapy ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/epidemiology ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/prevention & control
Chemical Substances	Anthelmintics ; Praziquantel (6490C9U457)
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-14
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2409480-8
ISSN	1756-3305 ; 1756-3305
ISSN (online)	1756-3305
ISSN	1756-3305
DOI	10.1186/s13071-022-05178-x
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Article ; Online: How correlations between treatment access and surveillance inclusion impact neglected tropical disease monitoring and evaluation-A simulated study.

Clark, Jessica / Davis, Emma L / Prada, Joaquin M / Gass, Katherine / Krentel, Alison / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

PLoS neglected tropical diseases

2023 Volume 17, Issue 9, Page(s) e0011582

Abstract: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) largely impact marginalised communities living in tropical and subtropical regions. Mass drug administration is the leading intervention method for five NTDs; however, it is known that there is lack of access to ... ...

Abstract	Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) largely impact marginalised communities living in tropical and subtropical regions. Mass drug administration is the leading intervention method for five NTDs; however, it is known that there is lack of access to treatment for some populations and demographic groups. It is also likely that those individuals without access to treatment are excluded from surveillance. It is important to consider the impacts of this on the overall success, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of intervention programmes. We use a detailed individual-based model of the infection dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to investigate the impact of excluded, untreated, and therefore unobserved groups on the true versus observed infection dynamics and subsequent intervention success. We simulate surveillance in four groups-the whole population eligible to receive treatment, the whole eligible population with access to treatment, the TAS focus of six- and seven-year-olds, and finally in >20-year-olds. We show that the surveillance group under observation has a significant impact on perceived dynamics. Exclusion to treatment and surveillance negatively impacts the probability of reaching public health goals, though in populations that do reach these goals there are no signals to indicate excluded groups. Increasingly restricted surveillance groups over-estimate the efficacy of MDA. The presence of non-treated groups cannot be inferred when surveillance is only occurring in the group receiving treatment.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Elephantiasis, Filarial/drug therapy ; Elephantiasis, Filarial/epidemiology ; Mass Drug Administration ; Neglected Diseases/drug therapy ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology ; Neglected Diseases/prevention & control ; Probability ; Public Health
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-09-06
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2429704-5
ISSN	1935-2735 ; 1935-2735
ISSN (online)	1935-2735
ISSN	1935-2735
DOI	10.1371/journal.pntd.0011582
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