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Article: Snow cover persistence reverses the altitudinal patterns of warming above and below 5000 m on the Tibetan Plateau

Zhang, Hongbo / Immerzeel, W.W. / Zhang, Fan / de Kok, Remco J. / Chen, Deliang / Yan, Wei

Science of the total environment. 2022 Jan. 10, v. 803

2022

Abstract: The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a global warming hotspot, however, the warming status at high elevation (>5000 m) is poorly understood due to very sparse observations. Here we analyze spatial patterns in TP warming rates based on a novel near-surface air ... ...

Abstract	The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a global warming hotspot, however, the warming status at high elevation (>5000 m) is poorly understood due to very sparse observations. Here we analyze spatial patterns in TP warming rates based on a novel near-surface air temperature dataset of 1980–2014 recently developed by ingesting high-elevation observations and downscaled reanalysis datasets. We show that the high snow cover persistence at high elevation reduces strengthening of positive feedbacks responsible for elevation dependent warming at low-middle elevations, leading to reversed altitudinal patterns of TP warming above and below 5000 m. An important negative feedback is induced by the presence of snow and glaciers at elevations above 5000 m, due to their “buffering” effects by consuming or reflecting energy that would be used for warming in the absence of snow or ice. A further decrease in snow cover and glacier extent at high elevations may thus amplify the warming on the TP.
Keywords	air temperature ; altitude ; data collection ; energy ; glaciers ; ice ; snow ; snowpack ; China
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-0110
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	121506-1
ISSN	1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
ISSN (online)	1879-1026
ISSN	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149889
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Snow cover persistence reverses the altitudinal patterns of warming above and below 5000 m on the Tibetan Plateau.

Zhang, Hongbo / Immerzeel, W W / Zhang, Fan / de Kok, Remco J / Chen, Deliang / Yan, Wei

The Science of the total environment

2021 Volume 803, Page(s) 149889

Abstract	The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a global warming hotspot, however, the warming status at high elevation (>5000 m) is poorly understood due to very sparse observations. Here we analyze spatial patterns in TP warming rates based on a novel near-surface air temperature dataset of 1980-2014 recently developed by ingesting high-elevation observations and downscaled reanalysis datasets. We show that the high snow cover persistence at high elevation reduces strengthening of positive feedbacks responsible for elevation dependent warming at low-middle elevations, leading to reversed altitudinal patterns of TP warming above and below 5000 m. An important negative feedback is induced by the presence of snow and glaciers at elevations above 5000 m, due to their "buffering" effects by consuming or reflecting energy that would be used for warming in the absence of snow or ice. A further decrease in snow cover and glacier extent at high elevations may thus amplify the warming on the TP.
MeSH term(s)	Environmental Monitoring ; Ice Cover ; Snow ; Temperature ; Tibet
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-30
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	121506-1
ISSN	1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
ISSN (online)	1879-1026
ISSN	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149889
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Article: Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

Khanal, S. / Lutz, A.F. / Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A. / van den Hurk, B. / Yao, T. / Immerzeel, W. W.

Water resources research. 2021 May, v. 57, no. 5

2021

Abstract: The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment to large river basin scale and from sub‐daily to decade and century scale. To robustly assess the 21st ... ...

Abstract	The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment to large river basin scale and from sub‐daily to decade and century scale. To robustly assess the 21st century climate change impact for hydrology in entire High Mountain Asia (HMA) at a wide range of scales, we use a high resolution cryospheric‐hydrological model covering 15 upstream HMA basins to quantify the compound effects of future changes in precipitation and temperature based on the range of climate change projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate model ensemble. Our analysis reveals contrasting responses for HMA's rivers, dictated by their hydrological regimes. At the seasonal scale, the earlier onset of melting causes a shift in the magnitude and peak of water availability, to earlier in the year. At the decade to century scale, after an initial increase, the glacier melt declines by the mid or end of the century except for the Tarim river basin, where it continues to increase. Despite a large variability in hydrological regimes across HMA's rivers, our results indicate relatively consistent climate change responses across HMA in terms of total water availability at decadal time scales. Although total water availability increases for the headwaters, changes in seasonality and magnitude may diverge widely between basins and need to be addressed while adapting to future changes in a region where food security, energy security as well as biodiversity, and the livelihoods of many depend on water from HMA.
Keywords	biodiversity ; climate change ; climate models ; energy ; food security ; glaciers ; mountains ; research ; temperature ; water ; watersheds ; Asia
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-05
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	5564-5
ISSN	1944-7973 ; 0043-1397
ISSN (online)	1944-7973
ISSN	0043-1397
DOI	10.1029/2020WR029266
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Article: Creating 1-km long-term (1980–2014) daily average air temperatures over the Tibetan Plateau by integrating eight types of reanalysis and land data assimilation products downscaled with MODIS-estimated temperature lapse rates based on machine learning

Zhang, Hongbo / Immerzeel, W.W. / Zhang, Fan / de Kok, Remco J. / Gorrie, Sally J. / Ye, Ming

International journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation. 2021 May, v. 97

2021

Abstract: Air temperature (Tair) is critical to modeling environmental processes (e.g. snow/glacier melting) in high-elevation areas of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). To resolve the issue that Tair observations are scarce in the TP western part and at high elevation, ... ...

Abstract	Air temperature (Tair) is critical to modeling environmental processes (e.g. snow/glacier melting) in high-elevation areas of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). To resolve the issue that Tair observations are scarce in the TP western part and at high elevation, many studies have estimated daily air temperatures by using MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and various reanalysis datasets. These estimates are however inadequate for supporting high-resolution long-term hydrological simulations or climate analysis due to the high cloud cover, short time span or low spatial resolution. To improve the Tair estimation, this study develops a novel machine-learning based method that uses the Gradient Boosting model to efficiently integrate observations from high-elevation stations with eight widely used air temperature reanalysis and assimilation datasets (i.e., NNRP-2, 20CRV2c, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, MERRA-2, CFSR, ERA5 and GLDAS2) downscaled with remote sensing-based temperature lapse rates (TLR). This method is used to generate a new dataset of daily air temperature with the 1-km resolution for the period of 1980–2014. To overcome the problem that TLR derived from limited stations may be unreliable, a new TLR estimation method is developed to first estimate spatially continuous monthly TLRs from MODIS LST and then downscale daily mean Tair from eight reanalysis and assimilation datasets to obtain Tair at the 1-km resolution using the MODIS-estimated TLRs. The Gradient Boosting (GB) model is selected for integrating the eight downscaled Tair and five other auxiliary variables. The models are trained and validated using observations from 100 common stations (i.e. China Meteorology Administration stations) and 13 independent high-elevation stations (4 on glaciers). The results show that the proposed TLR estimation method can efficiently reduce exceptional TLRs in the meantime keeping acceptable downscaling accuracy. The downscaled Tair from JRA-55 is the best among the eight downscaled datasets followed by ERA-Interim, MERRA-2, CFSR and others. Finally, the GB-integrated Tair further outperforms the downscaled JRA-55 Tair with the mean root-mean-squared-deviation (RMSD) of 1.7 °C versus 2.0 °C, especially in high-elevation stations with mean RMSD of 1.9 °C versus 2.7 °C. Both the MODIS-estimated TLR and the high-elevation training observations are demonstrated to significantly improve the air temperature estimation accuracy of the GB model in high-elevation stations. This study also provides a framework for integrating multiple reanalysis and assimilation temperature data with elevation correction in mountainous regions that is not restricted to the TP.
Keywords	air ; air temperature ; altitude ; artificial intelligence ; climate ; cloud cover ; data collection ; glaciers ; hydrology ; meteorology ; models ; mountains ; snow ; spatial data ; surface temperature ; China
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-05
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ISSN	1569-8432
DOI	10.1016/j.jag.2021.102295
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: A novel method to quantify consumed fractions and non-consumptive use of irrigation water: Application to the Indus Basin Irrigation System of Pakistan

Simons, G.W.H / Bastiaanssen, W.G.M / Cheema, M.J.M / Ahmad, B / Immerzeel, W.W

Agricultural water management. 2020 June 30, v. 236

2020

Abstract: Increasing irrigation efficiencies remains the focus of numerous efforts to mitigate water scarcity. In reality, higher local efficiencies do often not reduce water scarcity, but instead cause a redistribution of water flows when the entire irrigation ... ...

Abstract	Increasing irrigation efficiencies remains the focus of numerous efforts to mitigate water scarcity. In reality, higher local efficiencies do often not reduce water scarcity, but instead cause a redistribution of water flows when the entire irrigation scheme or river basin is considered. Insufficient understanding of consumed fractions and non-consumptive use (i.e. return flows) have led to ineffective, or even harmful, water conservation measures. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for spatial quantification of the Consumed Fraction (CF) of withdrawn irrigation water based on satellite remote sensing and the Budyko Hypothesis. This method was applied to evaluate consumption of irrigation water (ETblue), total water supply, and non-consumptive use across the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) of Pakistan. An average ETblue of 707 mm/yr from irrigated cropland was found for 2004–2012, with values per Canal Command Area (CCA) varying from 421 mm/yr to 1011 mm/yr. Although canal supply (662 mm/yr on average) in most CCAs was largely sufficient to sustain ETblue, a similar volume of additional pumping (690 mm/yr) was required to comply with hydro-climatological principles prescribed by Budyko theory. CF values between 0.38 and 0.66 were computed at CCA level, with an average value of 0.52. Co-occurrence of relatively low CF values, high additional water supply, and long-term canal diversions similar to ETblue, implies that the IBIS is characterized by extensive reuse of non-consumed flows within CCAs. In addition, the notably higher CF of 0.71−0.93 of the full IBIS indicates that return flow reuse between CCAs cannot be neglected. These conclusions imply that the IBIS network of irrigators is adapted to extensively recover and reuse drainage flows on different spatial scales. Water saving and efficiency enhancement measures should therefore be implemented with great caution. By relying on globally available satellite products and limited additional data, this novel method to determine Consumed Fractions and non-consumed flows can support policy makers worldwide to make irrigation systems more efficient without detriment to downstream users.
Keywords	basin irrigation ; drainage ; drainage water ; irrigated farming ; irrigation management ; irrigation water ; issues and policy ; remote sensing ; satellites ; water conservation ; water shortages ; watersheds ; Pakistan
Language	English
Dates of publication	2020-0630
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	751144-9
ISSN	1873-2283 ; 0378-3774
ISSN (online)	1873-2283
ISSN	0378-3774
DOI	10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106174
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: South Asian agriculture increasingly dependent on meltwater and groundwater

Lutz, A. F. / Immerzeel, W. W. / Siderius, C. / Wijngaard, R. R. / Nepal, Santosh / Shrestha, A. B. / Wester, P. / Biemans, H.

Nature Climate Change

2022

Abstract: Irrigated agriculture in South Asia depends on meltwater, monsoon rains and groundwater. Climate change alters the hydrology and causes shifts in the timing, composition and magnitude of these sources of water supply. Simultaneously, socio-economic ... ...

Abstract	Irrigated agriculture in South Asia depends on meltwater, monsoon rains and groundwater. Climate change alters the hydrology and causes shifts in the timing, composition and magnitude of these sources of water supply. Simultaneously, socio-economic growth increases water demand. Here we use a high-resolution cryosphere–hydrology–crop model forced with an ensemble of climate and socio-economic projections to assess how the sources of irrigation water supply may shift during the twenty-first century. We find increases in the importance of meltwater and groundwater for irrigated agriculture. An earlier melt peak increases meltwater withdrawal at the onset of the cropping season in May and June in the Indus, whereas increasing peak irrigation water demand during July and August aggravates non-renewable groundwater pumping in the Indus and Ganges despite runoff increases. Increasing inter-annual variability in rainfall runoff increases the need for meltwater and groundwater to complement rainfall runoff during future dry years.
Keywords	meltwater ; groundwater ; agriculture ; irrigated farming ; climate change ; forecasting ; hydrological modelling ; socioeconomic aspects ; water availability ; water supply ; water demand ; irrigation water ; water extraction ; rain ; runoff ; glaciers ; river basins ; monsoon climate ; crops
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-07-18T14:47:47Z
Publisher	Springer
Publishing country	fr
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: South Asian agriculture increasingly dependent on meltwater and groundwater

Lutz, A.F. / Immerzeel, W.W. / Siderius, C. / Wijngaard, R.R. / Nepal, S. / Shrestha, A.B. / Wester, P. / Biemans, H.

Nature Climate Change

2022 Volume 12, Issue 6

Abstract	Irrigated agriculture in South Asia depends on meltwater, monsoon rains and groundwater. Climate change alters the hydrology and causes shifts in the timing, composition and magnitude of these sources of water supply. Simultaneously, socio-economic growth increases water demand. Here we use a high-resolution cryosphere–hydrology–crop model forced with an ensemble of climate and socio-economic projections to assess how the sources of irrigation water supply may shift during the twenty-first century. We find increases in the importance of meltwater and groundwater for irrigated agriculture. An earlier melt peak increases meltwater withdrawal at the onset of the cropping season in May and June in the Indus, whereas increasing peak irrigation water demand during July and August aggravates non-renewable groundwater pumping in the Indus and Ganges despite runoff increases. Increasing inter-annual variability in rainfall runoff increases the need for meltwater and groundwater to complement rainfall runoff during future dry years.
Keywords	Life Science
Subject code	550
Language	English
Publishing country	nl
Document type	Article ; Online
ZDB-ID	2614383-5
ISSN	1758-6798 ; 1758-678X
ISSN (online)	1758-6798
ISSN	1758-678X
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's glaciers.

Kraaijenbrink, P D A / Bierkens, M F P / Lutz, A F / Immerzeel, W W

Nature

2017 Volume 549, Issue 7671, Page(s) 257–260

Abstract: Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia (HMA) make a substantial contribution to the water supply of millions of people, and they are retreating and losing mass as a result of anthropogenic climate change at similar rates to those seen elsewhere. In the ... ...

Abstract	Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia (HMA) make a substantial contribution to the water supply of millions of people, and they are retreating and losing mass as a result of anthropogenic climate change at similar rates to those seen elsewhere. In the Paris Agreement of 2015, 195 nations agreed on the aspiration to limit the level of global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius ( °C) above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not known what an increase of 1.5 °C would mean for the glaciers in HMA. Here we show that a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C will lead to a warming of 2.1 ± 0.1 °C in HMA, and that 64 ± 7 per cent of the present-day ice mass stored in the HMA glaciers will remain by the end of the century. The 1.5 °C goal is extremely ambitious and is projected by only a small number of climate models of the conservative IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 ensemble. Projections for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 reveal that much of the glacier ice is likely to disappear, with projected mass losses of 49 ± 7 per cent, 51 ± 6 per cent and 64 ± 5 per cent, respectively, by the end of the century; these projections have potentially serious consequences for regional water management and mountain communities.
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-09-13
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	120714-3
ISSN	1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
ISSN (online)	1476-4687
ISSN	0028-0836
DOI	10.1038/nature23878
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Article ; Online: Spatial quantification of groundwater abstraction in the irrigated Indus basin.

Cheema, M J M / Immerzeel, W W / Bastiaanssen, W G M

Ground water

2014 Volume 52, Issue 1, Page(s) 25–36

Abstract: Groundwater abstraction and depletion were assessed at a 1-km resolution in the irrigated areas of the Indus Basin using remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation; a process-based hydrological model and spatial information on canal water ... ...

Abstract	Groundwater abstraction and depletion were assessed at a 1-km resolution in the irrigated areas of the Indus Basin using remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation; a process-based hydrological model and spatial information on canal water supplies. A calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to derive total annual irrigation applied in the irrigated areas of the basin during the year 2007. The SWAT model was parameterized by station corrected precipitation data (R) from the Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission, land use, soil type, and outlet locations. The model was calibrated using a new approach based on spatially distributed ET fields derived from different satellite sensors. The calibration results were satisfactory and strong improvements were obtained in the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion (0.52 to 0.93), bias (-17.3% to -0.4%), and the Pearson correlation coefficient (0.78 to 0.93). Satellite information on R and ET was then combined with model results of surface runoff, drainage, and percolation to derive groundwater abstraction and depletion at a nominal resolution of 1 km. It was estimated that in 2007, 68 km³ (262 mm) of groundwater was abstracted in the Indus Basin while 31 km³ (121 mm) was depleted. The mean error was 41 mm/year and 62 mm/year at 50% and 70% probability of exceedance, respectively. Pakistani and Indian Punjab and Haryana were the most vulnerable areas to groundwater depletion and strong measures are required to maintain aquifer sustainability.
MeSH term(s)	Agricultural Irrigation ; Calibration ; China ; Groundwater/analysis ; Hydrology/methods ; India ; Models, Theoretical ; Pakistan ; Plant Transpiration ; Rain ; Water Supply
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-01
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	246212-6
ISSN	1745-6584 ; 0017-467X
ISSN (online)	1745-6584
ISSN	0017-467X
DOI	10.1111/gwat.12027
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Article ; Online: Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

Lutz, A F / Immerzeel, W W / Kraaijenbrink, P D A / Shrestha, A B / Bierkens, M F P

PloS one

2016 Volume 11, Issue 11, Page(s) e0165630

Abstract: The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are ... ...

Abstract	The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.
MeSH term(s)	Afghanistan ; China ; Climate ; Climate Change/statistics & numerical data ; Hydrology/methods ; Hydrology/statistics & numerical data ; Ice Cover ; India ; Models, Statistical ; Pakistan ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Snow ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; Water Supply/statistics & numerical data
Language	English
Publishing date	2016
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0165630
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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