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Article ; Online: Ecosystem-Based Harvest Control Rules for Norwegian and US Ecosystems

Isaac C. Kaplan / Cecilie Hansen / Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna / Raphael Girardin / Kristin N. Marshall

Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol

2020 Volume 7

Abstract: Management strategy evaluation (MSE) provides a simulation framework to test the performance of living marine resource management. MSE has now been adopted broadly for use in single-species fishery management, often using a relatively simple “operating ... ...

Abstract	Management strategy evaluation (MSE) provides a simulation framework to test the performance of living marine resource management. MSE has now been adopted broadly for use in single-species fishery management, often using a relatively simple “operating model” that projects population dynamics of one species forward in time. However, many challenges in ecosystem-based management involve tradeoffs between multiple species and interactions of multiple stressors. Here we use complex operating models, multi-species ecosystem models of the California Current and Nordic and Barents Seas, to test threshold harvest control rules that explicitly address the linkage between predators and prey, and between the forage needs of predators and fisheries. Specifically, within Atlantis ecosystem models we focus on how forage (zooplankton) availability affects the performance of harvest rules for target fish, and how these harvest rules for fish can account for environmentally-driven fluctuations in zooplankton. Our investigation led to three main results. First, consistent with studies based on single-species operating models, we found that compared to constant F = FMSY policies, threshold rules led to higher target stock biomass for Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) in the California Current and mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Nordic and Barents Seas. Performance in terms of catch of these species varied depending partly on the biomass and recovery trajectory for the simulated stock. Secondly, the multi-species operating models and the harvest control rules that linked fishing mortality rates to prey biomass (zooplankton) led to increased catch variability; this stemmed directly from the harvest rule that frequently adjusted Pacific hake or mackerel fishing rates in response to zooplankton, which are quite variable in these two ecosystems. Thirdly, tests suggested that threshold rules that increased fishing when productivity (zooplankton) declined had the potential for strong ecosystem effects on other species. These ...
Keywords	harvest control rules ; California Current ; Nordic and Barents Seas ; Pacific hake ; Atlantic mackerel ; management strategy evaluation ; Science ; Q ; General. Including nature conservation ; geographical distribution ; QH1-199.5
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-08-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Editorial

Erik Olsen / Isaac C. Kaplan / Cecilie Hansen / Elizabeth Fulton / Michael J. Fogarty / Jamie C. Tam / Saskia A. Otto

Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol

Future Oceans Under Multiple Stressors: From Global Change to Anthropogenic Impact

2020 Volume 7

Keywords	models and modeling ; indicators ; cumulative impacts ; climate change ; fisheries ; Science ; Q ; General. Including nature conservation ; geographical distribution ; QH1-199.5
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

Emma E Hodgson / Timothy E Essington / Isaac C Kaplan

PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 7, p e

2016 Volume 0158917

Abstract: Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability ... ...

Abstract	Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Busch, D. E., and J. C. Trexler, editors. 2002. Monitoring Ecosystems

Isaac C. Kaplan

Ecology and Society, Vol 7, Iss 2, p

Interdisciplinary Approaches for Evaluating Ecoregional Initiatives. Island Press, Washington, D. C., USA.

2003 Volume 1

Keywords	Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5 ; Ecology ; QH540-549.5
Language	English
Publishing date	2003-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Resilience Alliance
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Linking knowledge to action in ocean ecosystem management

Tessa B. Francis / Phillip S. Levin / Andre E. Punt / Isaac C. Kaplan / Anna Varney / Karma Norman

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, Vol 6, Iss

The Ocean Modeling Forum

2018 Volume 1

Abstract: The sustainable use of global marine resources depends upon science-based decision processes and systems. Informing decisions with science is challenging for many reasons, including the nature of science and science-based institutions. The complexity of ... ...

Abstract	The sustainable use of global marine resources depends upon science-based decision processes and systems. Informing decisions with science is challenging for many reasons, including the nature of science and science-based institutions. The complexity of ecosystem-based management often requires the use of models, and model-based advice can be especially difficult to convert into policies or decisions. Here, we suggest five characteristics of model-based information and advice for successfully informing ocean management decision-making, based on the Ocean Modeling Forum framework. Illustrated by examples from two fisheries case studies, Pacific sardines 'Sardinops sagax' and Pacific herring 'Clupea pallasii', we argue that actionable model-based output should be aspirational, applicable, parsimonious, co-produced, and amplifying.
Keywords	Boundary spanning ; Ocean modeling ; Knowledge coproduction ; Social-ecological systems ; Ecosystem-based management ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BioOne
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The Importance of Environmental Exposure History in Forecasting Dungeness Crab Megalopae Occurrence Using J-SCOPE, a High-Resolution Model for the US Pacific Northwest

Emily L. Norton / Samantha Siedlecki / Isaac C. Kaplan / Albert J. Hermann / Jennifer L. Fisher / Cheryl A. Morgan / Suzanna Officer / Casey Saenger / Simone R. Alin / Jan Newton / Nina Bednaršek / Richard A. Feely

Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol

2020 Volume 7

Abstract: The Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) fishery is one of the highest value fisheries in the US Pacific Northwest, but its catch size fluctuates widely across years. Although the underlying causes of this wide variability are not well understood, the ... ...

Abstract	The Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) fishery is one of the highest value fisheries in the US Pacific Northwest, but its catch size fluctuates widely across years. Although the underlying causes of this wide variability are not well understood, the abundance of M. magister megalopae has been linked to recruitment into the adult fishery 4 years later. These pelagic megalopae are exposed to a range of ocean conditions during their dispersal period, which may drive their occurrence patterns. Environmental exposure history has been found to be important for some pelagic organisms, so we hypothesized that inclusion of recent environmental exposure history would improve our ability to predict inter-annual variability in M. magister megalopae occurrence patterns compared to using “in situ” conditions alone. We combined 8 years of local observations of M. magister megalopae and regional simulations of ocean conditions to model megalopae occurrence using a generalized linear model (GLM) framework. The modeled ocean conditions were extracted from JISAO’s Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE), a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The analysis included variables from J-SCOPE identified in the literature as important for larval crab occurrence: temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen concentration, nitrate concentration, phytoplankton concentration, pH, aragonite, and calcite saturation state. GLMs were developed with either in situ ocean conditions or environmental exposure histories generated using particle tracking experiments. We found that inclusion of exposure history improved the ability of the GLMs to predict megalopae occurrence 98% of the time. Of the six swimming behaviors used to simulate megalopae dispersal, five behaviors generated GLMs with superior fits to the observations, so a biological ensemble of these models was constructed. When the biological ensemble was used for forecasting, the model showed skill in predicting megalopae occurrence (AUC = 0.94). Our ...
Keywords	Metacarcinus magister ; megalopae ; particle tracking ; simulated larval behaviors ; exposure history ; habitat modeling ; Science ; Q ; General. Including nature conservation ; geographical distribution ; QH1-199.5
Subject code	333 ; 551
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-02-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Using Global-Scale Earth System Models for Regional Fisheries Applications

Kelly A. Kearney / Steven J. Bograd / Elizabeth Drenkard / Fabian A. Gomez / Melissa Haltuch / Albert J. Hermann / Michael G. Jacox / Isaac C. Kaplan / Stefan Koenigstein / Jessica Y. Luo / Michelle Masi / Barbara Muhling / Mercedes Pozo Buil / Phoebe A. Woodworth-Jefcoats

Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol

2021 Volume 8

Abstract: Climate change may impact ocean ecosystems through a number of mechanisms, including shifts in primary productivity or plankton community structure, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. These processes can be simulated with global Earth system models ( ...

Abstract	Climate change may impact ocean ecosystems through a number of mechanisms, including shifts in primary productivity or plankton community structure, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. These processes can be simulated with global Earth system models (ESMs), which are increasingly being used in the context of fisheries management and other living marine resource (LMR) applications. However, projections of LMR-relevant metrics such as net primary production can vary widely between ESMs, even under identical climate scenarios. Therefore, the use of ESM should be accompanied by an understanding of the structural differences in the biogeochemical sub-models within ESMs that may give rise to these differences. This review article provides a brief overview of some of the most prominent differences among the most recent generation of ESM and how they are relevant to LMR application.
Keywords	living marine resources ; earth system models ; modeling ; primary production ; biogeochemistry ; CMIP6 ; Science ; Q ; General. Including nature conservation ; geographical distribution ; QH1-199.5
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Pteropods on the edge: Cumulative effects of ocean acidification, warming, and deoxygenation

Bednaršek, Nina / Chris J. Harvey / Isaac C. Kaplan / Jasna Možina / Richard A. Feely

Elsevier Ltd Progress in oceanography. 2016 June, v. 145

2016

Abstract: We review the state of knowledge of the individual and community responses of euthecosome (shelled) pteropods in the context of global environmental change. In particular, we focus on their responses to ocean acidification, in combination with ocean ... ...

Abstract	We review the state of knowledge of the individual and community responses of euthecosome (shelled) pteropods in the context of global environmental change. In particular, we focus on their responses to ocean acidification, in combination with ocean warming and ocean deoxygenation, as inferred from a growing body of empirical literature, and their relatively nascent place in ecosystem-scale models. Our objectives are: (1) to summarize the threats that these stressors pose to pteropod populations; (2) to demonstrate that pteropods are strong candidate indicators for cumulative effects of OA, warming, and deoxygenation in marine ecosystems; and (3) to provide insight on incorporating pteropods into population and ecosystem models, which will help inform ecosystem-based management of marine resources under future environmental regimes.
Keywords	ecosystem management ; global change ; marine ecosystems ; marine resources ; models ; ocean acidification
Language	English
Dates of publication	2016-06
Size	p. 1-24.
Publishing place	Elsevier Ltd
Document type	Article
ISSN	0079-6611
DOI	10.1016/j.pocean.2016.04.002
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Progress on Implementing Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management in the United States Through the Use of Ecosystem Models and Analysis

Howard Townsend / Chris J. Harvey / Yvonne deReynier / Dawn Davis / Stephani G. Zador / Sarah Gaichas / Mariska Weijerman / Elliott L. Hazen / Isaac C. Kaplan

Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol

2019 Volume 6

Abstract: Worldwide fisheries management has been undergoing a paradigm shift from a single-species approach to ecosystem approaches. In the United States, NOAA has adopted a policy statement and Road Map to guide the development and implementation of ecosystem- ... ...

Abstract	Worldwide fisheries management has been undergoing a paradigm shift from a single-species approach to ecosystem approaches. In the United States, NOAA has adopted a policy statement and Road Map to guide the development and implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). NOAA’s EBFM policy supports addressing the ecosystem interconnections to help maintain resilient and productive ecosystems, even as they respond to climate, habitat, ecological, and social and economic changes. Managing natural marine resources while taking into account their interactions with their environment and our human interactions with our resources and environment requires the support of ecosystem science, modeling, and analysis. Implementing EBFM will require using existing mandates and approaches that fit regional management structures and cultures. The primary mandate for managing marine fisheries in the United States is the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act. Many tenets of the Act align well with the EBFM policy, however, incorporating ecosystem analysis and models into fisheries management processes has faced procedural challenges in many jurisdictions. In this paper, we review example cases where scientists have had success in using ecosystem analysis and modeling to inform management priorities, and identify practices that help bring new ecosystem science information into existing policy processes. A key to these successes is regular communication and collaborative discourse among modelers, stakeholders, and resource managers to tailor models and ensure they addressed the management needs as directly as possible.
Keywords	ecosystem-based fisheries management ; ecosystem modeling ; fisheries science ; fisheries management ; natural resource management ; Science ; Q ; General. Including nature conservation ; geographical distribution ; QH1-199.5
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-10-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Environmentally Driven Seasonal Forecasts of Pacific Hake Distribution

Michael J. Malick / Samantha A. Siedlecki / Emily L. Norton / Isaac C. Kaplan / Melissa A. Haltuch / Mary E. Hunsicker / Sandra L. Parker-Stetter / Kristin N. Marshall / Aaron M. Berger / Albert J. Hermann / Nicholas A. Bond / Stéphane Gauthier

Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol

2020 Volume 7

Abstract: Changing ecosystem conditions present a challenge for the monitoring and management of living marine resources, where decisions often require lead-times of weeks to months. Consistent improvement in the skill of regional ocean models to predict physical ... ...

Abstract	Changing ecosystem conditions present a challenge for the monitoring and management of living marine resources, where decisions often require lead-times of weeks to months. Consistent improvement in the skill of regional ocean models to predict physical ocean states at seasonal time scales provides opportunities to forecast biological responses to changing ecosystem conditions that impact fishery management practices. In this study, we used 8-month lead-time predictions of temperature at 250 m depth from the J-SCOPE regional ocean model, along with stationary habitat conditions (e.g., distance to shelf break), to forecast Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution in the northern California Current Ecosystem (CCE). Using retrospective skill assessments, we found strong agreement between hake distribution forecasts and historical observations. The top performing models [based on out-of-sample skill assessments using the area-under-the-curve (AUC) skill metric] were a generalized additive model (GAM) that included shelf-break distance (i.e., distance to the 200 m isobath) (AUC = 0.813) and a boosted regression tree (BRT) that included temperature at 250 m depth and shelf-break distance (AUC = 0.830). An ensemble forecast of the top performing GAM and BRT models only improved out-of-sample forecast skill slightly (AUC = 0.838) due to strongly correlated forecast errors between models (r = 0.88). Collectively, our results demonstrate that seasonal lead-time ocean predictions have predictive skill for important ecological processes in the northern CCE and can be used to provide early detection of impending distribution shifts of ecologically and economically important marine species.
Keywords	California Current ; non-stationary ; Pacific hake ; climate ; temperature ; forecast ; Science ; Q ; General. Including nature conservation ; geographical distribution ; QH1-199.5
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-10-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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