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Article ; Online: Global patterns of aegyptism without arbovirus.

Mark F Olson / Jose G Juarez / Moritz U G Kraemer / Jane P Messina / Gabriel L Hamer

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 5, p e

2021 Volume 0009397

Abstract: The world's most important mosquito vector of viruses, Aedes aegypti, is found around the world in tropical, subtropical and even some temperate locations. While climate change may limit populations of Ae. aegypti in some regions, increasing temperatures ...

Abstract	The world's most important mosquito vector of viruses, Aedes aegypti, is found around the world in tropical, subtropical and even some temperate locations. While climate change may limit populations of Ae. aegypti in some regions, increasing temperatures will likely expand its territory thus increasing risk of human exposure to arboviruses in places like Europe, Northern Australia and North America, among many others. Most studies of Ae. aegypti biology and virus transmission focus on locations with high endemicity or severe outbreaks of human amplified urban arboviruses, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, but rarely on areas at the margins of endemicity. The objective in this study is to explore previously published global patterns in the environmental suitability for Ae. aegypti and dengue virus to reveal deviations in the probability of the vector and human disease occurring. We developed a map showing one end of the gradient being higher suitability of Ae. aegypti with low suitability of dengue and the other end of the spectrum being equal and higher environmental suitability for both Ae. aegypti and dengue. The regions of the world with Ae. aegypti environmental suitability and no endemic dengue transmission exhibits a phenomenon we term 'aegyptism without arbovirus'. We then tested what environmental and socioeconomic variables influence this deviation map revealing a significant association with human population density, suggesting that locations with lower human population density were more likely to have a higher probability of aegyptism without arbovirus. Characterizing regions of the world with established populations of Ae. aegypti but little to no autochthonous transmission of human-amplified arboviruses is an important step in understanding and achieving aegyptism without arbovirus.
Keywords	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Mapping environmental suitability of Haemagogus and Sabethes spp. mosquitoes to understand sylvatic transmission risk of yellow fever virus in Brazil.

Sabrina L Li / André L Acosta / Sarah C Hill / Oliver J Brady / Marco A B de Almeida / Jader da C Cardoso / Arran Hamlet / Luis F Mucci / Juliana Telles de Deus / Felipe C M Iani / Neil S Alexander / G R William Wint / Oliver G Pybus / Moritz U G Kraemer / Nuno R Faria / Jane P Messina

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 1, p e

2022 Volume 0010019

Abstract: Background Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent ...

Abstract	Background Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF's main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk. Methodology/principal findings We compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991-2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover. Conclusions/significance Our maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.
Keywords	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Higher risk of death from COVID-19 in low-income and non-White populations of São Paulo, Brazil

BMJ Global Health, Vol 6, Iss

2021 Volume 4

Abstract: Introduction Little evidence exists on the differential health effects of COVID-19 on disadvantaged population groups. Here we characterise the differential risk of hospitalisation and death in São Paulo state, Brazil, and show how vulnerability to COVID- ...

Abstract	Introduction Little evidence exists on the differential health effects of COVID-19 on disadvantaged population groups. Here we characterise the differential risk of hospitalisation and death in São Paulo state, Brazil, and show how vulnerability to COVID-19 is shaped by socioeconomic inequalities.Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study using hospitalised severe acute respiratory infections notified from March to August 2020 in the Sistema de Monitoramento Inteligente de São Paulo database. We examined the risk of hospitalisation and death by race and socioeconomic status using multiple data sets for individual-level and spatiotemporal analyses. We explained these inequalities according to differences in daily mobility from mobile phone data, teleworking behaviour and comorbidities.Results Throughout the study period, patients living in the 40% poorest areas were more likely to die when compared with patients living in the 5% wealthiest areas (OR: 1.60, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.74) and were more likely to be hospitalised between April and July 2020 (OR: 1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.12). Black and Pardo individuals were more likely to be hospitalised when compared with White individuals (OR: 1.41, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.46; OR: 1.26, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.28, respectively), and were more likely to die (OR: 1.13, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.19; 1.07, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.10, respectively) between April and July 2020. Once hospitalised, patients treated in public hospitals were more likely to die than patients in private hospitals (OR: 1.40%, 95% CI 1.34% to 1.46%). Black individuals and those with low education attainment were more likely to have one or more comorbidities, respectively (OR: 1.29, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.39; 1.36, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.45).Conclusions Low-income and Black and Pardo communities are more likely to die with COVID-19. This is associated with differential access to quality healthcare, ability to self-isolate and the higher prevalence of comorbidities.
Keywords	Medicine (General) ; R5-920 ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216
Subject code	610
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMJ Publishing Group
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.

Oliver J Brady / Peter W Gething / Samir Bhatt / Jane P Messina / John S Brownstein / Anne G Hoen / Catherine L Moyes / Andrew W Farlow / Thomas W Scott / Simon I Hay

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 6, Iss 8, p e

2012 Volume 1760

Abstract: Background Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems ... ...

Abstract	Background Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. Methods/principal findings A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. Conclusion The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.
Keywords	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	006
Language	English
Publishing date	2012-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus

Jane P Messina / Moritz UG Kraemer / Oliver J Brady / David M Pigott / Freya M Shearer / Daniel J Weiss / Nick Golding / Corrine W Ruktanonchai / Peter W Gething / Emily Cohn / John S Brownstein / Kamran Khan / Andrew J Tatem / Thomas Jaenisch / Christopher JL Murray / Fatima Marinho / Thomas W Scott / Simon I Hay

eLife, Vol

2016 Volume 5

Abstract: Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked ... ...

Abstract	Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.
Keywords	Zika virus ; disease mapping ; vector-borne disease ; Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-04-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: A spatial analysis of county-level variation in syphilis and gonorrhea in Guangdong Province, China.

Nicholas X Tan / Jane P Messina / Li-Gang Yang / Bin Yang / Michael Emch / Xiang-Sheng Chen / Myron S Cohen / Joseph D Tucker

PLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 5, p e

2011 Volume 19648

Abstract: Sexually transmitted infections (STI) have made a resurgence in many rapidly developing regions of southern China, but there is little understanding of the social changes that contribute to this spatial distribution of STI. This study examines county- ... ...

Abstract	Sexually transmitted infections (STI) have made a resurgence in many rapidly developing regions of southern China, but there is little understanding of the social changes that contribute to this spatial distribution of STI. This study examines county-level socio-demographic characteristics associated with syphilis and gonorrhea in Guangdong Province.This study uses linear regression and spatial lag regression to determine county-level (n = 97) socio-demographic characteristics associated with a greater burden of syphilis, gonorrhea, and a combined syphilis/gonorrhea index. Data were obtained from the 2005 China Population Census and published public health data. A range of socio-demographic variables including gross domestic product, the Gender Empowerment Measure, standard of living, education level, migrant population and employment are examined. Reported syphilis and gonorrhea cases are disproportionately clustered in the Pearl River Delta, the central region of Guangdong Province. A higher fraction of employed men among the adult population, higher fraction of divorced men among the adult population, and higher standard of living (based on water availability and people per room) are significantly associated with higher STI cases across all three models. Gross domestic product and gender inequality measures are not significant predictors of reported STI in these models.Although many ecological studies of STIs have found poverty to be associated with higher reported STI, this analysis found a greater number of reported syphilis cases in counties with a higher standard of living. Spatially targeted syphilis screening measures in regions with a higher standard of living may facilitate successful control efforts. This analysis also reinforces the importance of changing male sexual behaviors as part of a comprehensive response to syphilis control in China.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2011-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Molecular malaria epidemiology

Steve M Taylor / Jane P Messina / Carla C Hand / Jonathan J Juliano / Jeremie Muwonga / Antoinette K Tshefu / Benjamin Atua / Michael Emch / Steven R Meshnick

PLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 1, p e

mapping and burden estimates for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2007.

2011 Volume 16420

Abstract: Epidemiologic data on malaria are scant in many high-burden countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which suffers the second-highest global burden of malaria. Malaria control efforts in regions with challenging infrastructure ... ...

Abstract	Epidemiologic data on malaria are scant in many high-burden countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which suffers the second-highest global burden of malaria. Malaria control efforts in regions with challenging infrastructure require reproducible and efficient surveillance. We employed new high-throughput molecular testing to characterize the state of malaria control in the DRC and estimate childhood mortality attributable to excess malaria transmission.The Demographic and Health Survey was a cross-sectional, population-based cluster household survey of adults aged 15-59 years in 2007 employing structured questionnaires and dried blood spot collection. Parasitemia was detected by real-time PCR, and survey responses measured adoption of malaria control measures and under-5 health indices. The response rate was 99% at the household level, and 8,886 households were surveyed in 300 clusters; from 8,838 respondents molecular results were available. The overall prevalence of parasitemia was 33.5% (95% confidence interval [C.I.] 32-34.9); P. falciparum was the most prevalent species, either as monoinfection (90.4%; 95% C.I. 88.8-92.1) or combined with P. malariae (4.9%; 95% C.I. 3.7-5.9) or P. ovale (0.6%; 95% C.I. 0.1-0.9). Only 7.7% (95% CI 6.8-8.6) of households with children under 5 owned an insecticide-treated bednet (ITN), and only 6.8% (95% CI 6.1-7.5) of under-fives slept under an ITN the preceding night. The overall under-5 mortality rate was 147 deaths per 1,000 live births (95% C.I. 141-153) and between clusters was associated with increased P. falciparum prevalence; based on the population attributable fraction, 26,488 yearly under-5 deaths were attributable to excess malaria transmission.Adult P. falciparum prevalence is substantial in the DRC and is associated with under-5 mortality. Molecular testing offers a new, generalizable, and efficient approach to characterizing malaria endemicity in underserved countries.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2011-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Tracking the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351/501Y-V2 [version 1; peer review

Áine O'Toole / Verity Hill / Oliver G. Pybus / Alexander Watts / Issac I. Bogoch / Kamran Khan / Jane P. Messina / The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium / Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) / Brazil-UK CADDE Genomic Network / Houriiyah Tegally / Richard R. Lessells / Jennifer Giandhari / Sureshnee Pillay / Kefentse Arnold Tumedi / Gape Nyepetsi / Malebogo Kebabonye / Maitshwarelo Matsheka / Madisa Mine /

Sima Tokajian / Hamad Hassan / Tamara Salloum / Georgi Merhi / Jad Koweyes / Jemma L. Geoghegan / Joep de Ligt / Xiaoyun Ren / Matthew Storey / Nikki E. Freed / Chitra Pattabiraman / Pramada Prasad / Anita S. Desai / Ravi Vasanthapuram / Thomas F. Schulz / Lars Steinbrück / Tanja Stadler / Swiss Viollier Sequencing Consortium / Antonio Parisi / Angelica Bianco / Darío García de Viedma / Sergio Buenestado-Serrano / Vítor Borges / Joana Isidro / Sílvia Duarte / João Paulo Gomes / Neta S. Zuckerman / Michal Mandelboim / Orna Mor / Torsten Seemann / Alicia Arnott

Wellcome Open Research, Vol

2 approved]

2021 Volume 6

Abstract: Late in 2020, two genetically-distinct clusters of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with mutations of biological concern were reported, one in the United Kingdom and one in South Africa. Using a combination of data from ... ...

Abstract	Late in 2020, two genetically-distinct clusters of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with mutations of biological concern were reported, one in the United Kingdom and one in South Africa. Using a combination of data from routine surveillance, genomic sequencing and international travel we track the international dispersal of lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 (variant 501Y-V2). We account for potential biases in genomic surveillance efforts by including passenger volumes from location of where the lineage was first reported, London and South Africa respectively. Using the software tool grinch (global report investigating novel coronavirus haplotypes), we track the international spread of lineages of concern with automated daily reports, Further, we have built a custom tracking website (cov-lineages.org/global_report.html) which hosts this daily report and will continue to include novel SARS-CoV-2 lineages of concern as they are detected.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Wellcome
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Tracking the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351/501Y-V2 with grinch [version 2; peer review

Wellcome Open Research, Vol

3 approved]

2021 Volume 6

Abstract	Late in 2020, two genetically-distinct clusters of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with mutations of biological concern were reported, one in the United Kingdom and one in South Africa. Using a combination of data from routine surveillance, genomic sequencing and international travel we track the international dispersal of lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 (variant 501Y-V2). We account for potential biases in genomic surveillance efforts by including passenger volumes from location of where the lineage was first reported, London and South Africa respectively. Using the software tool grinch (global report investigating novel coronavirus haplotypes), we track the international spread of lineages of concern with automated daily reports, Further, we have built a custom tracking website (cov-lineages.org/global_report.html) which hosts this daily report and will continue to include novel SARS-CoV-2 lineages of concern as they are detected.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-09-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Wellcome
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Dengue Expansion in Africa—Not Recognized or Not Happening?

Thomas Jaenisch / Thomas Junghanss / Bridget Wills / Oliver J. Brady / Isabella Eckerle / Andrew Farlow / Simon I. Hay / Philip J. McCall / Jane P. Messina / Victor Ofula / Amadou Sall / Anavaj Sakuntabhai / Raman Velayudhan / G.R. William Wint / Herve Zeller / Harold S. Margolis / Osman Sankoh

Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol 20, Iss 10, Pp - (2014)

2014

Abstract: An expert conference on Dengue in Africa was held in Accra, Ghana, in February 2013 to consider key questions regarding the possible expansion of dengue in Africa. Four key action points were highlighted to advance our understanding of the epidemiology ... ...

Abstract	An expert conference on Dengue in Africa was held in Accra, Ghana, in February 2013 to consider key questions regarding the possible expansion of dengue in Africa. Four key action points were highlighted to advance our understanding of the epidemiology of dengue in Africa. First, dengue diagnostic tools must be made more widely available in the healthcare setting in Africa. Second, representative data need to be collected across Africa to uncover the true burden of dengue. Third, established networks should collaborate to produce these types of data. Fourth, policy needs to be informed so the necessary steps can be taken to provide dengue vector control and health services.
Keywords	dengue ; dengue virus ; viruses ; epidemiology ; incidence ; diagnostics ; Medicine ; R ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-10-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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