LIVIVO - The Search Portal for Life Sciences

zur deutschen Oberfläche wechseln
Advanced search

Search results

Result 1 - 7 of total 7

Search options

  1. Article ; Online: Applying a multi-strain dengue model to epidemics data.

    de Araújo, Robert G S / Jorge, Daniel C P / Dorn, Rejane C / Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Esteva, M Lourdes M / Pinho, Suani T R

    Mathematical biosciences

    2023  Volume 360, Page(s) 109013

    Abstract: Dengue disease transmission is a complex vector-borne disease, mainly due to the co-circulation of four serotypes of the virus. Mathematical models have proved to be a useful tool to understand the complexity of this disease. In this work, we extend the ... ...

    Abstract Dengue disease transmission is a complex vector-borne disease, mainly due to the co-circulation of four serotypes of the virus. Mathematical models have proved to be a useful tool to understand the complexity of this disease. In this work, we extend the model studied by Esteva et al., 2003, originally proposed for two serotypes, to four circulating serotypes. Using epidemic data of dengue fever in Iquitos (Peru) and San Juan (Puerto Rico), we estimate numerically the co-circulation parameter values for selected outbreaks using a bootstrap method, and we also obtained the Basic Reproduction Number, R
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Dengue ; Dengue Virus ; Epidemics ; Disease Outbreaks ; Serogroup
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-04-29
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1126-5
    ISSN 1879-3134 ; 0025-5564
    ISSN (online) 1879-3134
    ISSN 0025-5564
    DOI 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109013
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    Full text online

    More links

    Kategorien

    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 1534: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

    Order via subito

    This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.

  2. Article ; Online: A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Pataro, Igor M L / Oliveira, Juliane F / Morato, Marcelo M / Amad, Alan A S / Ramos, Pablo I P / Pereira, Felipe A C / Silva, Mateus S / Jorge, Daniel C P / Andrade, Roberto F S / Barreto, Mauricio L / Costa, Marcus Americano da

    Scientific reports

    2021  Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 13403

    Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, ...

    Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while minimizing risks of surges are paramount, which should work in parallel with reopening societies. To support these strategies, we present a predictive control system coupled with a nonlinear model able to optimize the level of policies to stop epidemic growth. We applied this system to study the unfolding of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, also assessing the effects of varying population compliance. We show the importance of finely tuning the levels of enforced measures to achieve SARS-CoV-2 containment, with periodic interventions emerging as an optimal control strategy in the long-term.
    MeSH term(s) Algorithms ; Brazil/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/pathology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/virology ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; Public Policy ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-06-28
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-021-92636-8
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

    Order via subito

    This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.

  3. Article ; Online: Assessing the nationwide impact of COVID-19 mitigation policies on the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.

    Jorge, Daniel C P / Rodrigues, Moreno S / Silva, Mateus S / Cardim, Luciana L / da Silva, Nívea B / Silveira, Ismael H / Silva, Vivian A F / Pereira, Felipe A C / de Azevedo, Arthur R / Amad, Alan A S / Pinho, Suani T R / Andrade, Roberto F S / Ramos, Pablo I P / Oliveira, Juliane F

    Epidemics

    2021  Volume 35, Page(s) 100465

    Abstract: COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or large-scale vaccination, control ... ...

    Abstract COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or large-scale vaccination, control strategies are currently based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, comprising changes in population behavior and governmental interventions, among which the prohibition of mass gatherings, closure of non-essential establishments, quarantine and movement restrictions. In this work we analyzed the effects of 707 governmental interventions published up to May 22, 2020, and population adherence thereof, on the dynamics of COVID-19 cases across all 27 Brazilian states, with emphasis on state capitals and remaining inland cities. A generalized SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model with a time-varying transmission rate (TR), that considers transmission by asymptomatic individuals, is presented. We analyze the effect of both the extent of enforced measures across Brazilian states and population movement on the changes in the TR and effective reproduction number. The social mobility reduction index, a measure of population movement, together with the stringency index, adapted to incorporate the degree of restrictions imposed by governmental regulations, were used in conjunction to quantify and compare the effects of varying degrees of policy strictness across Brazilian states. Our results show that population adherence to social distance recommendations plays an important role for the effectiveness of interventions and represents a major challenge to the control of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.
    MeSH term(s) Basic Reproduction Number ; Brazil/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/transmission ; Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Policy ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-05-08
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2467993-8
    ISSN 1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
    ISSN (online) 1878-0067
    ISSN 1755-4365
    DOI 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100465
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    Full text online

    More links

    Kategorien

    Order via subito

    This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.

  4. Article ; Online: A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic

    Pataro, Igor M. L. / Oliveira, Juliane F. / Morato, Marcelo M. / Amad, Alan A. S. / Ramos, Pablo I. P. / Pereira, Felipe A. C. / Silva, Mateus S. / Jorge, Daniel C. P. / Andrade, Roberto F. S. / Barreto, Mauricio L. / Americano da Costa, Marcus

    medRxiv

    Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, ...

    Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while minimizing risks of surges are paramount, which should work in parallel with reopening societies. To support these strategies, we present a predictive control system coupled with a nonlinear model able to optimize the level of policies to stop epidemic growth. We applied this system to study the unfolding of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, also assessing the effects of varying population compliance. We show the importance of finely tuning the levels of enforced measures to achieve SARS-CoV-2 containment, with periodic interventions emerging as an optimal control strategy in the long-term.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-01-31
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2021.01.28.21250692
    Database COVID19

    Full text online

    Kategorien

    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

  5. Article ; Online: Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil.

    Oliveira, Juliane F / Jorge, Daniel C P / Veiga, Rafael V / Rodrigues, Moreno S / Torquato, Matheus F / da Silva, Nivea B / Fiaccone, Rosemeire L / Cardim, Luciana L / Pereira, Felipe A C / de Castro, Caio P / Paiva, Aureliano S S / Amad, Alan A S / Lima, Ernesto A B F / Souza, Diego S / Pinho, Suani T R / Ramos, Pablo Ivan P / Andrade, Roberto F S

    Nature communications

    2021  Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 333

    Abstract: COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital ... ...

    Abstract COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R
    MeSH term(s) Asymptomatic Diseases ; Brazil/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/transmission ; Epidemiologic Methods ; Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Intensive Care Units ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; Physical Distancing ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-01-12
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2553671-0
    ISSN 2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
    ISSN (online) 2041-1723
    ISSN 2041-1723
    DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-19798-3
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

    Order via subito

    This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.

  6. Article ; Online: Assessing the nationwide impact of COVID-19 mitigation policies on the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

    Jorge, Daniel C. P. / Rodrigues, Moreno S. / Silva, Mateus S. / Cardim, Luciana L. / Silva, Nivea B. da / Silveira, Ismael H. / Silva, Vivian A. F. / Pereira, Felipe A. C. / Pinho, Suani T. R. / Andrade, Roberto F. S. / Ramos, Pablo I. P. / Oliveira, Juliane Fonseca

    medRxiv

    Abstract: COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or vaccines, control strategies are ... ...

    Abstract COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or vaccines, control strategies are currently based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, comprising changes in population behavior and governmental interventions, among which the prohibition of mass gatherings, closure of non-essential establishments, quarantine and movement restrictions. In this work we analyzed the effects of 547 published governmental interventions, and population adherence thereof, on the dynamics of COVID-19 cases across all 27 Brazilian states, with emphasis on state capitals and remaining inland cities. A generalized SEIR model with a time-varying transmission rate (TR), that considers transmission by asymptomatic individuals, is presented. Confirmed COVID-19 cases were used to calibrate the model parameters using non-linear least squares methods. We analyze the changes on the TR and effective reproduction number as a function of both the extent of enforced measures across Brazilian states as well as population movement. The social mobility reduction index, a measure of population movement, together with the stringency index, adapted to incorporate the degree of restrictions imposed by governmental regulations, were used in conjunction to quantify and compare the effects of varying degrees of policy strictness across Brazilian states. Our results show that population adherence to social distance recommendations plays an important role for the effectiveness of interventions, and represents a major challenge to the control of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-06-28
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.06.26.20140780
    Database COVID19

    Full text online

    Kategorien

    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

  7. Article ; Online: Evaluating the burden of COVID-19 on hospital resources in Bahia, Brazil: A modelling-based analysis of 14.8 million individuals

    Oliveira, Juliane Fonseca / Jorge, Daniel C. P. / Veiga, Rafael V. / Rodrigues, Moreno S. / Torquato, Matheus F. / da Silva, Nivea B. / Fiaconne, Rosemeire L. / Castro, Caio P. / Paiva, Aureliano S. S. / Cardim, Luciana L. / Amad, Alan A. S. / Lima, Ernesto A. B. F. / Souza, Diego S. / Pinho, Suani T. R. / Ramos, Pablo I. P. / Andrade, Roberto F. S. / Rede CoVida Modelling Task-force

    medRxiv

    Abstract: Here we present a general compartment model with a time-varying transmission rate to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic, parameterized with the demographics of Bahia, a state in northeast Brazil. The dynamics of the model are influenced by ... ...

    Abstract Here we present a general compartment model with a time-varying transmission rate to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic, parameterized with the demographics of Bahia, a state in northeast Brazil. The dynamics of the model are influenced by the number of asymptomatic cases, hospitalization requirements and mortality due to the disease. A locally-informed model was determined using actual hospitalization records. Together with cases and casualty data, optimized estimates for model parameters were obtained within a metaheuristic framework based on Particle Swarm Optimization. Our strategy is supported by a statistical sensitivity analysis on the model parameters, adequate to properly account for the simulated scenarios. First, we evaluated the effect of previously enforced interventions on the transmission rate. Then, we studied its effects on the number of deaths as well as hospitalization requirements, considering the state as a whole. Special attention is given to the impact of asymptomatic individuals on the dynamic of COVID-19 transmission, as these were estimated to contribute to a 68% increase in the basic reproductive number. Finally, we delineated scenarios that can set guides to protect the health care system, particularly by keeping demand below total bed occupancy. Our results underscore the challenges related to maintaining a fully capable health infrastructure during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, specially in a low-resource setting such as the one focused in this work. The evidences produced by our modelling-based analysis show that decreasing the transmission rate is paramount to success in maintaining health resources availability, but that current local efforts, leading to a 38% decrease in the transmission rate, are still insufficient to prevent its collapse at peak demand. Carefully planned and timely applied interventions, that result in stark decreases in transmission rate, were found to be the most effective in preventing hospital bed shortages for the longest periods.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-26
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.05.25.20105213
    Database COVID19

    Full text online

    Kategorien

    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

To top