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  1. Article ; Online: Potential COVID-19 Outbreak in Fire Camp

    Matthew P Thompson / Jude Bayham / Erin Belval

    Fire, Vol 3, Iss 38, p

    Modeling Scenarios and Interventions

    2020  Volume 38

    Abstract: The global COVID-19 pandemic will pose unique challenges to the management of wildland fire in 2020. Fire camps may provide an ideal setting for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. However, intervention strategies can help ... ...

    Abstract The global COVID-19 pandemic will pose unique challenges to the management of wildland fire in 2020. Fire camps may provide an ideal setting for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. However, intervention strategies can help minimize disease spread and reduce the risk to the firefighting community. We developed a COVID-19 epidemic model to highlight the risks posed by the disease during wildland fire incidents. Our model accounts for the transient nature of the population on a wildland fire incident, which poses unique risks to the management of communicable diseases in fire camps. We used the model to assess the impact of two types of interventions: the screening of a firefighter arriving on an incident, and social distancing measures. Our results suggest that both interventions are important to mitigate the risks posed by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, screening is relatively more effective on short incidents, whereas social distancing is relatively more effective during extended campaigns. We conclude with a discussion of model limitations and potential extensions to the model.
    Keywords SARS-CoV-2 ; wildland fire ; workforce capacity ; suppression ; risk ; Physics ; QC1-999 ; covid19
    Subject code 650
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-08-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: Supporting Wildfire Response During a Pandemic in the United States

    Matthew P. Thompson / Erin J. Belval / Jake Dilliott / Jude Bayham

    Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Vol

    the COVID-19 Incident Risk Assessment Tool

    2021  Volume 4

    Abstract: The onset of the global pandemic in 2020 significantly increased the complexity and uncertainty of wildfire incident response in the United States, and there was a clear role for decision support to inform and enhance coordination and communication ... ...

    Abstract The onset of the global pandemic in 2020 significantly increased the complexity and uncertainty of wildfire incident response in the United States, and there was a clear role for decision support to inform and enhance coordination and communication efforts. Epidemiological modeling suggested the risk of COVID-19 outbreak at a traditional large fire camp could be substantial and supported the broadscale implementation of mitigations, and management of COVID-19 required expanding the response network to interface with entities such as local public health agencies, hospitals, and emergency operations centers. Despite the early issuance of medical and public health guidance to support wildfire management functions under a COVID-19 modified operating posture, an identified gap was a scale- and scope-appropriate tool to support incident-level assessment of COVID-19 risk. Here we review the development and application of a COVID-19 Incident Risk Assessment Tool intended to fill that gap. After prototyping with fire managers and risk practitioners, including early-season use on several incidents, we built an online dashboard that was used operationally throughout the 2020 fire season. We summarize usage statistics, provide some examples of real use on wildfire incidents, and report feedback from users. The tool helped to fill a critical information gap and was intended to support risk-informed decision-making regarding incident logistics, operations, and COVID-19 mitigations.
    Keywords COVID-19 ; decision support ; dashboard ; wildfire management ; risk management ; Forestry ; SD1-669.5 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Subject code 690
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-05-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article ; Online: Risk compensation and face mask mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic

    Youpei Yan / Jude Bayham / Aaron Richter / Eli P. Fenichel

    Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2021  Volume 11

    Abstract: Abstract Face masks are an important component in controlling COVID-19, and policy orders to wear masks are common. However, behavioral responses are seldom additive, and exchanging one protective behavior for another could undermine the COVID-19 policy ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Face masks are an important component in controlling COVID-19, and policy orders to wear masks are common. However, behavioral responses are seldom additive, and exchanging one protective behavior for another could undermine the COVID-19 policy response. We use SafeGraph smart device location data and variation in the date that US states and counties issued face mask mandates as a set of natural experiments to investigate risk compensation behavior. We compare time at home and the number of visits to public locations before and after face mask orders conditional on multiple statistical controls. We find that face mask orders lead to risk compensation behavior. Americans subject to the mask orders spend 11–24 fewer minutes at home on average and increase visits to some commercial locations—most notably restaurants, which are a high-risk location. It is unclear if this would lead to a net increase or decrease in transmission. However, it is clear that mask orders would be an important part of an economic recovery if people otherwise overestimate the risk of visiting public places.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Modeling the systemic risks of COVID-19 on the wildland firefighting workforce

    Erin J. Belval / Jude Bayham / Matthew P. Thompson / Jacob Dilliott / Andrea G. Buchwald

    Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2022  Volume 13

    Abstract: Abstract Wildfire management in the US relies on a complex nationwide network of shared resources that are allocated based on regional need. While this network bolsters firefighting capacity, it may also provide pathways for transmission of infectious ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Wildfire management in the US relies on a complex nationwide network of shared resources that are allocated based on regional need. While this network bolsters firefighting capacity, it may also provide pathways for transmission of infectious diseases between fire sites. In this manuscript, we review a first attempt at building an epidemiological model adapted to the interconnected fire system, with the aims of supporting prevention and mitigation efforts along with understanding potential impacts to workforce capacity. Specifically, we developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 built on historical wildland fire assignments using detailed dispatch data from 2016–2018, which form a network of firefighters dispersed spatially and temporally across the US. We used this model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission under several intervention scenarios including vaccination and social distancing. We found vaccination and social distancing are effective at reducing transmission at fire incidents. Under a scenario assuming High Compliance with recommended mitigations (including vaccination), infection rates, number of outbreaks, and worker days missed are effectively negligible, suggesting the recommended interventions could successfully mitigate the risk of cascading infections between fires. Under a contrasting Low Compliance scenario, it is possible for cascading outbreaks to emerge leading to relatively high numbers of worker days missed. As the model was built in 2021 before the emergence of the Delta and Omicron variants, the modeled viral parameters and isolation/quarantine policies may have less relevance to 2022, but nevertheless underscore the importance of following basic prevention and mitigation guidance. This work could set the foundation for future modeling efforts focused on mitigating spread of infectious disease at wildland fire incidents to manage both the health of fire personnel and system capacity.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 690
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-05-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article ; Online: Outside in

    Katelyn O’Dell / Bonne Ford / Jesse Burkhardt / Sheryl Magzamen / Susan C Anenberg / Jude Bayham / Emily V Fischer / Jeffrey R Pierce

    Environmental Research: Health, Vol 1, Iss 1, p

    the relationship between indoor and outdoor particulate air quality during wildfire smoke events in western US cities

    2022  Volume 015003

    Abstract: Previous research on the health and air quality impacts of wildfire smoke has largely focused on the impact of smoke on outdoor air quality; however, many people spend a majority of their time indoors. The quality of indoor air on smoke-impacted days is ... ...

    Abstract Previous research on the health and air quality impacts of wildfire smoke has largely focused on the impact of smoke on outdoor air quality; however, many people spend a majority of their time indoors. The quality of indoor air on smoke-impacted days is largely unknown. In this analysis, we use publicly available data from an existing large network of low-cost indoor and outdoor fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) monitors to quantify the relationship between indoor and outdoor particulate air quality on smoke-impacted days in 2020 across the western United States (US). We also investigate possible regional and socioeconomic trends in this relationship for regions surrounding six major cities in the western US. We find indoor PM _2.5 concentrations are 82% or 4.2 µ g m ^−3 (median across all western US indoor monitors for the year 2020; interquartile range, IQR: 2.0–7.2 µ g m ^−3 ) higher on smoke-impacted days compared to smoke-free days. Indoor/outdoor PM _2.5 ratios show variability by region, particularly on smoke-free days. However, we find the ratio of indoor/outdoor PM _2.5 is less than 1 (i.e. indoor concentrations lower than outdoor) at nearly all indoor-outdoor monitor pairs on smoke-impacted days. Although typically lower than outdoor concentrations on smoke-impacted days, we find that on heavily smoke-impacted days (outdoor PM _2.5 > 55 µ g m ^−3 ), indoor PM _2.5 concentrations can exceed the 35 µ g m ^−3 24 h outdoor standard set by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Further, total daily-mean indoor PM _2.5 concentrations increase by 2.1 µ g m ^−3 with every 10 µ g m ^−3 increase in daily-mean outdoor PM _2.5. (median of statistically significant linear regression slopes across all western US monitor pairs; IQR: 1.0–4.3 µ g m ^−3 ) on smoke-impacted days. These results show that for indoor environments in the western US included in our analysis, remaining indoors during smoke events is currently an effective, but limited, strategy to reduce PM _2.5 exposure.
    Keywords wildfire smoke ; indoor air ; air quality ; PM2.5 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher IOP Publishing
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article ; Online: A COVID-19 Risk Assessment for the US Labor Force

    Sammantha Maher / Alexandra E Hill / Peter Britton / Eli P Fenichel / Peter Daszak / Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio / Jude Bayham

    Abstract: The consequences of COVID-19 infection varies substantially based on individual social risk factors and predisposing health conditions. Understanding this variability may be critical for targeting COVID-19 control measures, resources and policies, ... ...

    Abstract The consequences of COVID-19 infection varies substantially based on individual social risk factors and predisposing health conditions. Understanding this variability may be critical for targeting COVID-19 control measures, resources and policies, including efforts to return people back to the workplace. We compiled individual level data from the National Health Information Survey and Quarterly Census of Earnings and Wages to estimate the number of at-risk workers for each US county and industry, accounting for both social and health risks. Nearly 80% of all workers have at least one health risk and 11% are over 60 with an additional health risk. We document important variation in the at-risk population across states, counties, and industries that could provide a strategic underpinning to a staged return to work.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher medrxiv
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.04.13.20063776
    Database COVID19

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  7. Article ; Online: Weather, Risk, and Resource Orders on Large Wildland Fires in the Western US

    Jude Bayham / Erin J. Belval / Matthew P. Thompson / Christopher Dunn / Crystal S. Stonesifer / David E. Calkin

    Forests, Vol 11, Iss 2, p

    2020  Volume 169

    Abstract: Research Highlights: Our results suggest that weather is a primary driver of resource orders over the course of extended attack efforts on large fires. Incident Management Teams (IMTs) synthesize information about weather, fuels, and order resources ... ...

    Abstract Research Highlights: Our results suggest that weather is a primary driver of resource orders over the course of extended attack efforts on large fires. Incident Management Teams (IMTs) synthesize information about weather, fuels, and order resources based on expected fire growth rather than simply reacting to observed fire growth. Background and Objectives: Weather conditions are a well-known determinant of fire behavior and are likely to become more erratic under climate change. Yet, there is little empirical evidence demonstrating how IMTs respond to observed or expected weather conditions. An understanding of weather-driven resource ordering patterns may aid in resource prepositioning as well as forecasting suppression costs. Our primary objective is to understand how changing weather conditions influence resource ordering patterns. Our secondary objective is to test how an additional risk factor, evacuation, as well as a constructed risk metric combining fire growth and evacuation, influences resource ordering. Materials and Methods: We compile a novel dataset on over 1100 wildfires in the western US from 2007−2013, integrating data on resource requests, detailed weather conditions, fuel and landscape characteristics, values at risk, fire behavior, and IMT expectations about future fire behavior and values at risk. We develop a two-step regression framework to investigate the extent to which IMTs respond to realized or expected weather-driven fire behavior and risks. Results: We find that IMTs’ expectations about future fire growth are influenced by observed weather and that these expectations influence resource ordering patterns. IMTs order nearly twice as many resources when weather conditions are expected to drive growth events in the near future. However, we find little evidence that our other risk metrics influence resource ordering behavior (all else being equal). Conclusion: Our analysis shows that incident management teams are generally forward-looking and respond to expected rather than recently observed weather-driven fire behavior. These results may have important implications for forecasting resource needs and costs in a changing climate.
    Keywords resource ordering ; weather ; risk ; evacuation ; fire growth ; incident management teams ; Plant ecology ; QK900-989
    Subject code 332
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-02-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article ; Online: Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA

    Andrea G. Buchwald / Jude Bayham / Jimi Adams / David Bortz / Kathryn Colborn / Olivia Zarella / Meghan Buran / Jonathan Samet / Debashis Ghosh / Rachel Herlihy / Elizabeth J. Carlton

    Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol 27, Iss 9, Pp 2312-

    2021  Volume 2322

    Abstract: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic necessitated rapid local public health response, but studies examining the impact of social distancing policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have struggled to capture regional-level ... ...

    Abstract The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic necessitated rapid local public health response, but studies examining the impact of social distancing policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have struggled to capture regional-level dynamics. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered transmission model, parameterized to Colorado, USA‒specific data, to estimate the impact of coronavirus disease‒related policy measures on mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in real time. During March‒June 2020, we estimated unknown parameter values and generated scenario-based projections of future clinical care needs. Early coronavirus disease policy measures, including a stay-at-home order, were accompanied by substantial decreases in mobility and reduced the effective reproductive number well below 1. When some restrictions were eased in late April, mobility increased to near baseline levels, but transmission remained low (effective reproductive number <1) through early June. Over time, our model parameters were adjusted to more closely reflect reality in Colorado, leading to modest changes in estimates of intervention effects and more conservative long-term projections.
    Keywords severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; SARS-CoV-2 ; coronaviruses ; viruses ; coronavirus disease ; COVID-19 ; Medicine ; R ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-09-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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