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Article ; Online: A model for the early COVID-19 outbreak in China with case detection and behavioural change

Julien Arino / Khalid El Hail / Mohamed Khaladi / Aziz Ouhinou

Biomath, Vol 11, Iss

2023 Volume 2

Abstract: We investigate a model of the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic comprising undetected infected individuals as well as behavioural change towards the use of self-protection measures. The model is fitted to China data reported between 22 January and 29 ... ...

Abstract	We investigate a model of the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic comprising undetected infected individuals as well as behavioural change towards the use of self-protection measures. The model is fitted to China data reported between 22 January and 29 June 2020. Using fitting results, we then consider model responses to varying screening intensities.
Keywords	COVID-19 ; Behavioural Change ; Screening Intensity ; Protective Measures ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5 ; Mathematics ; QA1-939
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Biomath Forum
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: A simple model for COVID-19

Julien Arino / Stéphanie Portet

Infectious Disease Modelling, Vol 5, Iss , Pp 309-

2020 Volume 315

Abstract: An SL1L2I1I2A1A2R epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a population. The model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating, symptomatically and asymptomatically infectious compartments. Basic ... ...

Abstract	An SL1L2I1I2A1A2R epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a population. The model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating, symptomatically and asymptomatically infectious compartments. Basic properties of the model are explored, with focus on properties important in the context of current COVID-19 pandemic.
Keywords	COVID-19 ; Mathematical model ; Erlang distribution ; Asymptomatic infections ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216 ; covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	KeAi
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Modelling the transmission of dengue, zika and chikungunya

Kamal Raj Acharya / Jhoana P Romero-Leiton / Bouchra Nasri / Jane Elizabeth Parmley / Julien Arino

BMJ Open, Vol 13, Iss

a scoping review protocol

2023 Volume 9

Abstract: Introduction Aedes mosquitoes are the primary vectors for the spread of viruses like dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), all of which affect humans. Those diseases contribute to global public health issues because of their great ... ...

Abstract	Introduction Aedes mosquitoes are the primary vectors for the spread of viruses like dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), all of which affect humans. Those diseases contribute to global public health issues because of their great dispersion in rural and urban areas. Mathematical and statistical models have become helpful in understanding these diseases’ epidemiological dynamics. However, modelling the complexity of a real phenomenon, such as a viral disease, should consider several factors. This scoping review aims to document, identify and classify the most important factors as well as the modelling strategies for the spread of DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV.Methods and analysis We will conduct searches in electronic bibliographic databases such as PubMed, MathSciNet and the Web of Science for full-text peer-reviewed articles written in English, French and Spanish. These articles should use mathematical and statistical modelling frameworks to study dengue, zika and chikungunya, and their cocirculation/coinfection with other diseases, with a publication date between 1 January 2011 and 31 July 2023. Eligible studies should employ deterministic, stochastic or statistical modelling approaches, consider control measures and incorporate parameters’ estimation or considering calibration/validation approaches. We will exclude articles focusing on clinical/laboratory experiments or theoretical articles that do not include any case study. Two reviewers specialised in zoonotic diseases and mathematical/statistical modelling will independently screen and retain relevant studies. Data extraction will be performed using a structured form, and the findings of the study will be summarised through classification and descriptive analysis. Three scoping reviews will be published, each focusing on one disease and its cocirculation/co-infection with other diseases.Ethics and dissemination This protocol is exempt from ethics approval because it is carried out on published manuscripts and without the participation of humans ...
Keywords	Medicine ; R
Subject code	306
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-09-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMJ Publishing Group
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Modelling disease mitigation at mass gatherings

Martin Grunnill / Julien Arino / Zachary McCarthy / Nicola Luigi Bragazzi / Laurent Coudeville / Edward W. Thommes / Amine Amiche / Abbas Ghasemi / Lydia Bourouiba / Mohammadali Tofighi / Ali Asgary / Mortaza Baky-Haskuee / Jianhong Wu

PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 20, Iss

A case study of COVID-19 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

2024 Volume 1

Keywords	Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Estimating social contacts in mass gatherings for disease outbreak prevention and management

Mohammadali Tofighi / Ali Asgary / Ghassem Tofighi / Mahdi M. Najafabadi / Julien Arino / Amine Amiche / Ashrafur Rahman / Zachary McCarthy / Nicola Luigi Bragazzi / Edward Thommes / Laurent Coudeville / Martin David Grunnill / Lydia Bourouiba / Jianhong Wu

Tropical Diseases, Travel Medicine and Vaccines, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-

case of Hajj pilgrimage

2022 Volume 11

Abstract: Abstract Background Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world's largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals. Methods We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram. Results The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site. Conclusions This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events.
Keywords	Social Contacts ; Mass gathering ; Hajj ; Disease Transmission ; Agent-Based Simulation ; COVID-19 ; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-09-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Quantifying the annual incidence and underestimation of seasonal influenza

Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, Vol 17, Iss 1, Pp 1-

A modelling approach

2020 Volume 16

Abstract: Abstract Background Seasonal influenza poses a significant public health and economic burden, associated with the outcome of infection and resulting complications. The true burden of the disease is difficult to capture due to the wide range of ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Seasonal influenza poses a significant public health and economic burden, associated with the outcome of infection and resulting complications. The true burden of the disease is difficult to capture due to the wide range of presentation, from asymptomatic cases to non-respiratory complications such as cardiovascular events, and its seasonal variability. An understanding of the magnitude of the true annual incidence of influenza is important to support prevention and control policy development and to evaluate the impact of preventative measures such as vaccination. Methods We use a dynamic disease transmission model, laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data, and randomized-controlled trial (RCT) data to quantify the underestimation factor, expansion factor, and symptomatic influenza illnesses in the US and Canada during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 influenza seasons. Results Based on 2 case definitions, we estimate between 0.42−3.2% and 0.33−1.2% of symptomatic influenza illnesses were laboratory-confirmed in Canada during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons, respectively. In the US, we estimate between 0.08−0.61% and 0.07−0.33% of symptomatic influenza illnesses were laboratory-confirmed in the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons, respectively. We estimated the symptomatic influenza illnesses in Canada to be 0.32−2.4 million in 2011-2012 and 1.8−8.2 million in 2012-2013. In the US, we estimate the number of symptomatic influenza illnesses to be 4.4−34 million in 2011-2012 and 23−102 million in 2012-2013. Conclusions We illustrate that monitoring a representative group within a population may aid in effectively modelling the transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza. In particular, the utilization of RCTs in models may enhance the accuracy of epidemiological parameter estimation.
Keywords	Mathematical modelling ; influenza ; vaccine ; evidence synthesis ; Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics ; R858-859.7 ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-07-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Towards Standardizing a Lexicon of Infectious Disease Modelling Terms

Rachael Milwid / Andreea Steriu / Julien Arino / Jane Heffernan / Ayaz Hyder / Dena Schanzer / Emma Gardner / Margaret Haworth-Brockman / Harpa Isfeld-Kiely / Joanne Langley / Seyed Moghadas

Frontiers in Public Health, Vol

2016 Volume 4

Abstract: Disease modelling is increasingly being used to evaluate the effect of health intervention strategies, particularly for infectious diseases. However, the utility and application of such models are hampered by the inconsistent use of infectious disease ... ...

Abstract	Disease modelling is increasingly being used to evaluate the effect of health intervention strategies, particularly for infectious diseases. However, the utility and application of such models are hampered by the inconsistent use of infectious disease modelling terms between and within disciplines. We sought to standardize the lexicon of infectious disease modelling terms, and develop a glossary of terms commonly used in describing models’ assumptions, parameters, variables, and outcomes. We combined a comprehensive literature review of relevant terms with an online forum discussion in a virtual community of practice, mod4PH (Modelling for Public Health). Using a convergent discussion process and consensus amongst the members of mod4PH, a glossary of terms was developed as an online resource. We anticipate that the glossary will improve inter- and intra-disciplinary communication, and will result in a greater uptake and understanding of disease modelling outcomes in heath policy decision-making. We highlight the role of the mod4PH community of practice and the methodologies used in this endeavour to link theory, policy, and practice in the public health domain.
Keywords	Public Health ; community of practice ; Reproduction number ; Infectious disease modelling ; Lexicon of terms ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	306
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-09-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Entry and exit screening of airline travellers during the A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic

Kamran Khan / Rose Eckhardt / John S Brownstein / Raza Naqvi / Wei Hu / David Kossowsky / David Scales / Julien Arino / Michael MacDonald / Jun Wang / Jennifer Sears / Martin S Cetron

Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Vol 91, Iss 5, Pp 368-

a retrospective evaluation

2013 Volume 376

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the screening measures that would have been required to assess all travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico by air at the start of the 2009 pandemic. METHODS: Data from flight itineraries for travellers who ... ...

Abstract	OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the screening measures that would have been required to assess all travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico by air at the start of the 2009 pandemic. METHODS: Data from flight itineraries for travellers who flew from Mexico were used to estimate the number of international airports where health screening measures would have been needed, and the number of travellers who would have had to be screened, to assess all air travellers who could have transported the H1N1 influenza virus out of Mexico during the initial stages of the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. FINDINGS: Exit screening at 36 airports in Mexico, or entry screening of travellers arriving on direct flights from Mexico at 82 airports in 26 other countries, would have resulted in the assessment of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico at the start of the pandemic. Entry screening of 116 travellers arriving from Mexico by direct or connecting flights would have been necessary for every one traveller at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09. Screening at just eight airports would have resulted in the assessment of 90% of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico in the early stages of the pandemic. CONCLUSION: During the earliest stages of the A(H1N1) pandemic, most public health benefits potentially attainable through the screening of air travellers could have been achieved by screening travellers at only eight airports.
Keywords	Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270 ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	380
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	World Health Organization
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Entry and exit screening of airline travellers during the A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic

Kamran Khan / Rose Eckhardt / John S Brownstein / Raza Naqvi / Wei Hu / David Kossowsky / David Scales / Julien Arino / Michael MacDonald / Jun Wang / Jennifer Sears / Martin S Cetron

Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Vol 91, Iss 5, Pp 368-

a retrospective evaluation

2013 Volume 376

Abstract	OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the screening measures that would have been required to assess all travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico by air at the start of the 2009 pandemic. METHODS: Data from flight itineraries for travellers who flew from Mexico were used to estimate the number of international airports where health screening measures would have been needed, and the number of travellers who would have had to be screened, to assess all air travellers who could have transported the H1N1 influenza virus out of Mexico during the initial stages of the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. FINDINGS: Exit screening at 36 airports in Mexico, or entry screening of travellers arriving on direct flights from Mexico at 82 airports in 26 other countries, would have resulted in the assessment of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico at the start of the pandemic. Entry screening of 116 travellers arriving from Mexico by direct or connecting flights would have been necessary for every one traveller at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09. Screening at just eight airports would have resulted in the assessment of 90% of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico in the early stages of the pandemic. CONCLUSION: During the earliest stages of the A(H1N1) pandemic, most public health benefits potentially attainable through the screening of air travellers could have been achieved by screening travellers at only eight airports.
Keywords	Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270 ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	380
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	World Health Organization
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Entry and exit screening of airline travellers during the A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic

Kamran Khan / Rose Eckhardt / John S Brownstein / Raza Naqvi / Wei Hu / David Kossowsky / David Scales / Julien Arino / Michael MacDonald / Jun Wang / Jennifer Sears / Martin S Cetron

Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Vol 91, Iss 5, Pp 368-

a retrospective evaluation

2013 Volume 376

Abstract	OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the screening measures that would have been required to assess all travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico by air at the start of the 2009 pandemic. METHODS: Data from flight itineraries for travellers who flew from Mexico were used to estimate the number of international airports where health screening measures would have been needed, and the number of travellers who would have had to be screened, to assess all air travellers who could have transported the H1N1 influenza virus out of Mexico during the initial stages of the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. FINDINGS: Exit screening at 36 airports in Mexico, or entry screening of travellers arriving on direct flights from Mexico at 82 airports in 26 other countries, would have resulted in the assessment of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico at the start of the pandemic. Entry screening of 116 travellers arriving from Mexico by direct or connecting flights would have been necessary for every one traveller at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09. Screening at just eight airports would have resulted in the assessment of 90% of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico in the early stages of the pandemic. CONCLUSION: During the earliest stages of the A(H1N1) pandemic, most public health benefits potentially attainable through the screening of air travellers could have been achieved by screening travellers at only eight airports.
Keywords	Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270 ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	380
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	World Health Organization
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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