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Article ; Online: Can we distinguish the roles of demographic and temporal changes in the incidence and prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders? A systematic review

Hanifa Bouziri / Alexis Descatha / Yves Roquelaure / William Dab / Kévin Jean

Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health, Vol 48, Iss 4, Pp 253-

2022 Volume 263

Abstract: OBJECTIVES: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) represent a major public health issue, affecting more then 40 million European workers in 2017. The overall aging of the working population is expected to increase the burden of disease, but temporal changes in ...

Abstract	OBJECTIVES: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) represent a major public health issue, affecting more then 40 million European workers in 2017. The overall aging of the working population is expected to increase the burden of disease, but temporal changes in exposures or diagnosis may also drive the global trends in MSD. We therefore conducted a systematic review to summarize the evidence on the role of demographic and temporal changes in the occurrence of MSD. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of articles reporting temporal trends in MSD in the general working-age population. Only articles controlling for age in the analysis were included. The risk of bias was assessed. The main indicators extracted were age-controlled time trends in MSD incidence or prevalence. RESULTS: Among 966 articles, 16 fulfilled the inclusion criteria, representing 23 results according to the indicators extracted. No study was found with a high risk of bias. Results presenting time trends in prevalence were found in 12 studies and incidence in 11. After controlling for age, the reported temporal trends varied, mostly between non-monotonic changes (N=12/23) and increases (N=10/23). One article also highlighted an increase among women and non-monotonic changes among men (N=1/23). Several factors other than aging were suggested to explain temporal trends in MSD, mainly trends in obesity, changing occupational exposures, and cultural factors regarding pain tolerance. CONCLUSION: This review shows that different kind of factors in addition to aging may contribute to varying or increasing trends in MSD. This review also highlighted the scarcity of evidence regarding time trends in the burden of MSD and their underlying causes.
Keywords	epidemiology ; musculoskeletal disorder ; occupational health ; systematic review ; musculoskeletal pain ; chronic disease ; demographic change ; temporal change ; temporal trend ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	610
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nordic Association of Occupational Safety and Health (NOROSH)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Investigating inequalities in HIV testing in sub-Saharan Africa

Kevin Jean / Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar / Tarik Benmarhnia / Laura Temime / Pearl Anne Ante-Testard

BMJ Open, Vol 13, Iss

spatial analysis of cross-sectional population-based surveys in 25 countries

2023 Volume 12

Abstract: Objectives We aim to explore spatial variations in socioeconomic inequalities in HIV testing uptake in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at different geographical scales to identify potential geographical hotspots of inequalities. Additionally, to evaluate the ... ...

Abstract	Objectives We aim to explore spatial variations in socioeconomic inequalities in HIV testing uptake in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at different geographical scales to identify potential geographical hotspots of inequalities. Additionally, to evaluate the potential benefits of HIV testing programmes, we assess whether local levels of HIV testing match the local levels of HIV prevalence.Design A multi-country analysis of population-based cross-sectional surveys in SSA.Setting We analysed data from 25 SSA countries with Demographic and Health Surveys between 2011 and 2019.Participants Country-level analysis included 473 775 participants (312 104 women and 161 671 men) and cluster-level analysis included 328 283 individuals (241 084 women and 87 199 men). Women aged 15–49 years and men aged 15–54/59 years in selected households who were tested for HIV in the last 12 months were eligible. We quantified inequalities in self-reported recent HIV testing with the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) across geographical scales to capture sex-specific within-country spatial variations. We also conducted local Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to consider the autocorrelation in fine-scale SII and RII across countries. To assess the efficiency of HIV testing programmes, we measured the correlation between recent HIV testing and HIV prevalence through Spearman correlation across geographical scales.Results We observed varying inequalities in recent HIV testing in magnitude and spatial distribution on both absolute and relative scales in many countries for both sexes at national and subnational levels. Hotspots of absolute and relative inequalities were mostly observed in Western and Central Africa with a few regions in Eastern and Southern Africa. Despite significant sex-specific correlations between testing and prevalence in all countries when assessed at the national level, we report an absence of such a correlation at fine scale in 17 of 50 sex-country combinations.Conclusions We highlight the ...
Keywords	Medicine ; R
Subject code	360
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMJ Publishing Group
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Quantifying model evidence for yellow fever transmission routes in Africa.

Katy A M Gaythorpe / Kévin Jean / Laurence Cibrelus / Tini Garske

PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 15, Iss 9, p e

2019 Volume 1007355

Abstract: Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease endemic in tropical regions of Africa, where 90% of the global burden occurs, and Latin America. It is notoriously under-reported with uncertainty arising from a complex transmission cycle including a sylvatic ... ...

Abstract	Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease endemic in tropical regions of Africa, where 90% of the global burden occurs, and Latin America. It is notoriously under-reported with uncertainty arising from a complex transmission cycle including a sylvatic reservoir and non-specific symptom set. Resulting estimates of burden, particularly in Africa, are highly uncertain. We examine two established models of yellow fever transmission within a Bayesian model averaging framework in order to assess the relative evidence for each model's assumptions and to highlight possible data gaps. Our models assume contrasting scenarios of the yellow fever transmission cycle in Africa. The first takes the force of infection in each province to be static across the observation period; this is synonymous with a constant infection pressure from the sylvatic reservoir. The second model assumes the majority of transmission results from the urban cycle; in this case, the force of infection is dynamic and defined through a fixed value of R0 in each province. Both models are coupled to a generalised linear model of yellow fever occurrence which uses environmental covariates to allow us to estimate transmission intensity in areas where data is sparse. We compare these contrasting descriptions of transmission through a Bayesian framework and trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in order to assess each model's evidence given the range of uncertainty in parameter values. The resulting estimates allow us to produce Bayesian model averaged predictions of yellow fever burden across the African endemic region. We find strong support for the static force of infection model which suggests a higher proportion of yellow fever transmission occurs as a result of infection from an external source such as the sylvatic reservoir. However, the model comparison highlights key data gaps in serological surveys across the African endemic region. As such, conclusions concerning the most prevalent transmission routes for yellow fever will be limited by ...
Keywords	Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-09-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Uptake of HIV testing in Burkina Faso

Fati Kirakoya-Samadoulougou / Kévin Jean / Mathieu Maheu-Giroux

BMC Public Health, Vol 17, Iss 1, Pp 1-

an assessment of individual and community-level determinants

2017 Volume 11

Abstract: Abstract Background Previous studies have highlighted a range of individual determinants associated with HIV testing but few have assessed the role of contextual factors. The objective of this paper is to examine the influence of both individual and ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Previous studies have highlighted a range of individual determinants associated with HIV testing but few have assessed the role of contextual factors. The objective of this paper is to examine the influence of both individual and community-level determinants of HIV testing uptake in Burkina Faso. Methods Using nationally representative cross-sectional data from the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey, the determinants of lifetime HIV testing were examined for sexually active women (n = 14,656) and men (n = 5680) using modified Poisson regression models. Results One third of women (36%; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 33–37%) reported having ever been tested for HIV compared to a quarter of men (26%; 95% CI: 24–27%). For both genders, age, education, religious affiliation, household wealth, employment, media exposure, sexual behaviors, and HIV knowledge were associated with HIV testing. After adjustment, women living in communities where the following characteristics were higher than the median were more likely to report uptake of HIV testing: knowledge of where to access testing (Prevalence Ratio [PR] = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.34–1.48), willing to buy food from an infected vendor (PR = 2.06; 95% CI: 1.31–3.24), highest wealth quintiles (PR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.10–1.27), not working year-round (PR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.84–0.96), and high media exposure (PR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03–1.19). Men living in communities where the proportion of respondents were more educated (PR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.07–1.41) than the median were more likely to be tested. Conclusions This study shed light on potential mechanisms through which HIV testing could be increased in Burkina Faso. Both individual and contextual factors should be considered to design effective strategies for scaling-up HIV testing.
Keywords	HIV/AIDS ; Contextual determinants ; Human immunodeficiency virus ; Multilevel models ; Voluntary counselling and testing ; West Africa ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The global burden of yellow fever

Katy AM Gaythorpe / Arran Hamlet / Kévin Jean / Daniel Garkauskas Ramos / Laurence Cibrelus / Tini Garske / Neil Ferguson

eLife, Vol

2021 Volume 10

Abstract: Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is ... ...

Abstract	Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling. We refine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data, we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000–173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000–82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%–77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.
Keywords	yellow fever ; mathematical modelling ; vaccine impact ; vector-borne ; Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Subject code	306
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-03-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa

Kévin Jean / Arran Hamlet / Justus Benzler / Laurence Cibrelus / Katy A M Gaythorpe / Amadou Sall / Neil M Ferguson / Tini Garske

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 5, p e

Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling.

2020 Volume 0008304

Abstract: Background To counter the increasing global risk of Yellow fever (YF), the World Health Organisation initiated the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. Estimating YF burden, as well as vaccine impact, while accounting for the features of ... ...

Abstract	Background To counter the increasing global risk of Yellow fever (YF), the World Health Organisation initiated the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. Estimating YF burden, as well as vaccine impact, while accounting for the features of urban YF transmission such as indirect benefits of vaccination, is key to informing this strategy. Methods and findings We developed two model variants to estimate YF burden in sub-Saharan Africa, assuming all infections stem from either the sylvatic or the urban cycle of the disease. Both relied on an ecological niche model fitted to the local presence of any YF reported event in 34 African countries. We calibrated under-reporting using independent estimates of transmission intensity provided by 12 serological surveys performed in 11 countries. We calculated local numbers of YF infections, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost based on estimated transmission intensity while accounting for time-varying vaccination coverage. We estimated vaccine demand and impact of future preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs) according to various vaccination scenarios. Vaccination activities conducted in Africa between 2005 and 2017 were estimated to prevent from 3.3 (95% CI 1.2-7.7) to 6.1 (95% CI 2.4-13.2) millions of deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, representing extreme scenarios of none or maximal herd effects, respectively. By prioritizing provinces based on the risk of urban YF transmission in future PMVCs, an average of 37.7 million annual doses for PMVCs over eight years would avert an estimated 9,900,000 (95% CI 7,000,000-13,400,000) infections and 480,000 (180,000-1,140,000) deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, corresponding to 1.7 (0.7-4.1) deaths averted per 1,000 vaccine doses. Conclusions By estimating YF burden and vaccine impact over a range of spatial and temporal scales, while accounting for the specificity of urban transmission, our model can be used to inform the current EYE strategy.
Keywords	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa

Kévin Jean / Hanaya Raad / Katy A M Gaythorpe / Arran Hamlet / Judith E Mueller / Dan Hogan / Tewodaj Mengistu / Heather J Whitaker / Tini Garske / Mounia N Hocine

PLoS Medicine, Vol 18, Iss 2, p e

A population-level self-controlled case series study.

2021 Volume 1003523

Abstract: Background The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination ... ...

Abstract	Background The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak has not yet been quantified. Methods and findings We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. As all time-invariant confounders are implicitly controlled for in the SCCS method, this method is an alternative to classical cohort or case-control study designs when the risk of residual confounding is high, in particular confounding by indication. The locations and dates of outbreaks were identified from international epidemiological records, and information on PMVCs was provided by coordinators of vaccination activities and international funders. The study sample consisted of provinces that were both affected by an outbreak and targeted for a PMVC between 2005 and 2018. We compared the incidence of outbreaks before and after the implementation of a PMVC. The sensitivity of our estimates to a range of assumptions was explored, and the results of the SCCS method were compared to those obtained through a retrospective cohort study design. We further derived the number of yellow fever outbreaks that have been prevented by PMVCs. The study sample consisted of 33 provinces from 11 African countries. Among these, the first outbreak occurred during the pre-PMVC period in 26 (79%) provinces, and during the post-PMVC period in 7 (21%) provinces. At the province level, the post-PMVC period was associated with an 86% reduction (95% CI 66% to 94%, p < 0.001) in the risk of outbreak as compared to the pre-PMVC period. This negative association between exposure to PMVCs and outbreak was robustly observed across a ...
Keywords	Medicine ; R
Subject code	910
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa.

Arran Hamlet / Kévin Jean / William Perea / Sergio Yactayo / Joseph Biey / Maria Van Kerkhove / Neil Ferguson / Tini Garske

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 12, Iss 3, p e

2018 Volume 0006284

Abstract: Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a vector-borne flavivirus endemic to Africa and Latin America. Ninety per cent of the global burden occurs in Africa where it is primarily transmitted by Aedes spp, with Aedes aegypti the main vector for urban yellow fever (YF) ...

Abstract	Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a vector-borne flavivirus endemic to Africa and Latin America. Ninety per cent of the global burden occurs in Africa where it is primarily transmitted by Aedes spp, with Aedes aegypti the main vector for urban yellow fever (YF). Mosquito life cycle and viral replication in the mosquito are heavily dependent on climate, particularly temperature and rainfall. We aimed to assess whether seasonal variations in climatic factors are associated with the seasonality of YF reports.We constructed a temperature suitability index for YFV transmission, capturing the temperature dependence of mosquito behaviour and viral replication within the mosquito. We then fitted a series of multilevel logistic regression models to a dataset of YF reports across Africa, considering location and seasonality of occurrence for seasonal models, against the temperature suitability index, rainfall and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as covariates alongside further demographic indicators. Model fit was assessed by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and models were ranked by Akaike's Information Criterion which was used to weight model outputs to create combined model predictions. The seasonal model accurately captured both the geographic and temporal heterogeneities in YF transmission (AUC = 0.81), and did not perform significantly worse than the annual model which only captured the geographic distribution. The interaction between temperature suitability and rainfall accounted for much of the occurrence of YF, which offers a statistical explanation for the spatio-temporal variability in transmission.The description of seasonality offers an explanation for heterogeneities in the West-East YF burden across Africa. Annual climatic variables may indicate a transmission suitability not always reflected in seasonal interactions. This finding, in conjunction with forecasted data, could highlight areas of increased transmission and provide insights into the occurrence of large outbreaks, such as those seen in Angola, the ...
Keywords	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	550
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-03-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Temporal trends in socioeconomic inequalities in HIV testing

Pearl Anne Ante-Testard, MPH / Tarik Benmarhnia, PhD / Anne Bekelynck, PhD / Rachel Baggaley, MBBS / Eric Ouattara, PhD / Laura Temime, ProfPhD / Kévin Jean, PhD

The Lancet Global Health, Vol 8, Iss 6, Pp e808-e

an analysis of cross-sectional surveys from 16 sub-Saharan African countries

2020 Volume 818

Abstract: Summary: Background: Overall increases in the uptake of HIV testing in the past two decades might hide discrepancies across socioeconomic groups. We used data from population-based surveys done in sub-Saharan Africa to quantify socioeconomic inequalities ...

Abstract	Summary: Background: Overall increases in the uptake of HIV testing in the past two decades might hide discrepancies across socioeconomic groups. We used data from population-based surveys done in sub-Saharan Africa to quantify socioeconomic inequalities in uptake of HIV testing, and to establish trends in testing uptake in the past two decades. Methods: We analysed data from 16 countries in sub-Saharan Africa where at least one Demographic and Health Survey was done before and after 2008. We assessed the country-specific and sex-specific proportions of participants who had undergone HIV testing in the previous 12 months across wealth and education groups, and quantified socioeconomic inequalities with both the relative and slope indices of inequalities. We assessed time trends in inequalities, and calculated mean results across countries with random-effects meta-analyses. Findings: We analysed data for 537 784 participants aged 15–59 years (most aged 15–49 years) from 32 surveys done between 2003 and 2016 (16 before 2008, and 16 after 2008) in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. A higher proportion of female participants than male participants reported uptake of HIV testing in the previous 12 months in five of 16 countries in the pre-2008 surveys, and in 14 of 16 countries in the post-2008 surveys. After 2008, in the overall sample, the wealthiest female participants were 2·77 (95% CI 1·42–5·40) times more likely to report HIV testing in the previous 12 months than were the poorest female participants, whereas the richest male participants were 3·55 (1·85–6·81) times more likely to report HIV testing than in the poorest male participants. The mean absolute difference in uptake of HIV testing between the richest and poorest participants was 11·1 (95% CI 4·6–17·5) percentage points in female participants and 15·1 (9·6–20·6) in male participants. Over time (ie, when pre-2008 and post-2008 data were ...
Keywords	Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	306
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-06-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?

Susy Echeverria-Londono / Xiang Li / Jaspreet Toor / Margaret J. de Villiers / Shevanthi Nayagam / Timothy B. Hallett / Kaja Abbas / Mark Jit / Petra Klepac / Kévin Jean / Tini Garske / Neil M. Ferguson / Katy A. M. Gaythorpe

BMC Public Health, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2021 Volume 12

Abstract: Abstract Background Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination. Methods We describe the methods implemented by the VIMC to estimate impact by calendar year, birth year and year of vaccination (YoV). The calendar and birth year methods estimate impact in a particular year and over the lifetime of a particular birth cohort, respectively. The YoV method estimates the impact of a particular year’s vaccination activities through the use of impact ratios which have no stratification and stratification by activity type and/or birth cohort. Furthermore, we detail an impact extrapolation (IE) method for use between coverage scenarios. We compare the methods, focusing on YoV for hepatitis B, measles and yellow fever. Results We find that the YoV methods estimate similar impact with routine vaccinations but have greater yearly variation when campaigns occur with the birth cohort stratification. The IE performs well for the YoV methods, providing a time-efficient mechanism for updates to impact estimates. Conclusions These methods provide a robust set of approaches to quantify vaccination impact; however it is vital that the area of impact estimation continues to develop in order to capture the full effect of immunisation.
Keywords	Vaccine ; Impact ; Modelling ; Hepatitis ; Measles ; Yellow fever ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	306
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
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