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  1. Article ; Online: Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Mutono, Nyamai / Basáñez, Maria-Gloria / James, Ananthu / Stolk, Wilma A / Makori, Anita / Kimani, Teresia Njoki / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre / Vasconcelos, Andreia / Dixon, Matthew A / de Vlas, Sake J / Thumbi, S M

    The Lancet. Global health

    2024  Volume 12, Issue 5, Page(s) e771–e782

    Abstract: Background: WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main ... ...

    Abstract Background: WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.
    Methods: For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar databases for all articles published from database inception to Aug 19, 2023, without language restrictions. The search terms used were "onchocerciasis" AND "ivermectin" AND "mass drug administration". The three inclusion criteria were (1) focus or foci located in Africa, (2) reporting of elimination of transmission or at least 10 years of ivermectin mass drug administration in the focus or foci, and (3) inclusion of at least one of the following assessments: microfilarial prevalence, nodule prevalence, Ov16 antibody seroprevalence, and blackfly infectivity prevalence. Epidemiological modelling studies and reviews were excluded. Four reviewers (NM, AJ, AM, and TNK) extracted data in duplicate from the full-text articles using a data extraction tool developed in Excel with columns recording the data of interest to be extracted, and a column where important comments for each study could be highlighted. We did not request any individual-level data from authors. Foci were classified as achieving elimination of transmission, being close to elimination of transmission, or with ongoing transmission. We used mixed-effects meta-regression models to identify factors associated with transmission status. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42022338986.
    Findings: Of 1525 articles screened after the removal of duplicates, 75 provided 282 records from 238 distinct foci in 19 (70%) of the 27 onchocerciasis-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Elimination of transmission was reported in 24 (9%) records, being close to elimination of transmission in 86 (30%) records, and ongoing transmission in 172 (61%) records. I
    Interpretation: Mass drug administration duration, frequency, and coverage; baseline endemicity; and vector elimination or disappearance are important determinants of elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings underscore the importance of improving and sustaining high therapeutic coverage and increasing treatment frequency if countries are to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis transmission.
    Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium, UK Medical Research Council, and Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking.
    Translations: For the Swahili, French, Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Onchocerciasis/drug therapy ; Onchocerciasis/epidemiology ; Onchocerciasis/prevention & control ; Ivermectin/therapeutic use ; Onchocerciasis, Ocular/drug therapy ; Onchocerciasis, Ocular/epidemiology ; Onchocerciasis, Ocular/prevention & control ; Mass Drug Administration ; Seroepidemiologic Studies ; Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology
    Chemical Substances Ivermectin (70288-86-7)
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-11
    Publishing country England
    Document type Meta-Analysis ; Systematic Review ; Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2723488-5
    ISSN 2214-109X ; 2214-109X
    ISSN (online) 2214-109X
    ISSN 2214-109X
    DOI 10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00043-3
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.

    Kimani, Teresia Njoki / Nyamai, Mutono / Owino, Lillian / Makori, Anita / Ombajo, Loice Achieng / Maritim, MaryBeth / Anzala, Omu / Thumbi, S M

    Epidemics

    2022  Volume 40, Page(s) 100610

    Abstract: Applied epidemiological models have played a critical role in understanding the transmission and control of disease outbreaks. Their utility and accuracy in decision-making on appropriate responses during public health emergencies is however a factor of ... ...

    Abstract Applied epidemiological models have played a critical role in understanding the transmission and control of disease outbreaks. Their utility and accuracy in decision-making on appropriate responses during public health emergencies is however a factor of their calibration to local data, evidence informing model assumptions, speed of obtaining and communicating their results, ease of understanding and willingness by policymakers to use their insights. We conducted a systematic review of infectious disease models focused on SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to determine: a) spatial and temporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 modelling in Africa, b) use of local data to calibrate the models and local expertise in modelling activities, and c) key modelling questions and policy insights. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and MedRxiv databases following the PRISMA guidelines to obtain all SARS-CoV-2 dynamic modelling papers for one or multiple African countries. We extracted data on countries studied, authors and their affiliations, modelling questions addressed, type of models used, use of local data to calibrate the models, and model insights for guiding policy decisions. A total of 74 papers met the inclusion criteria, with nearly two-thirds of these coming from 6% (3) of the African countries. Initial papers were published 2 months after the first cases were reported in Africa, with most papers published after the first wave. More than half of all papers (53, 78%) and (48, 65%) had a first and last author affiliated to an African institution respectively, and only 12% (9) used local data for model calibration. A total of 60% (46) of the papers modelled assessment of control interventions. The transmission rate parameter was found to drive the most uncertainty in the sensitivity analysis for majority of the models. The use of dynamic models to draw policy insights was crucial and therefore there is need to increase modelling capacity in the continent.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Policy ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-07-14
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article ; Systematic Review ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
    ZDB-ID 2467993-8
    ISSN 1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
    ISSN (online) 1878-0067
    ISSN 1755-4365
    DOI 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100610
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis.

    Whittaker, Charles / Watson, Oliver J / Alvarez-Moreno, Carlos / Angkasekwinai, Nasikarn / Boonyasiri, Adhiratha / Carlos Triana, Luis / Chanda, Duncan / Charoenpong, Lantharita / Chayakulkeeree, Methee / Cooke, Graham S / Croda, Julio / Cucunubá, Zulma M / Djaafara, Bimandra A / Estofolete, Cassia F / Grillet, Maria Eugenia / Faria, Nuno R / Figueiredo Costa, Silvia / Forero-Peña, David A / Gibb, Diana M /
    Gordon, Anthony C / Hamers, Raph L / Hamlet, Arran / Irawany, Vera / Jitmuang, Anupop / Keurueangkul, Nukool / Kimani, Teresia Njoki / Lampo, Margarita / Levin, Anna S / Lopardo, Gustavo / Mustafa, Rima / Nayagam, Shevanthi / Ngamprasertchai, Thundon / Njeri, Ng'ang'a Irene Hannah / Nogueira, Mauricio L / Ortiz-Prado, Esteban / Perroud, Mauricio W / Phillips, Andrew N / Promsin, Panuwat / Qavi, Ambar / Rodger, Alison J / Sabino, Ester C / Sangkaew, Sorawat / Sari, Djayanti / Sirijatuphat, Rujipas / Sposito, Andrei C / Srisangthong, Pratthana / Thompson, Hayley A / Udwadia, Zarir / Valderrama-Beltrán, Sandra / Winskill, Peter / Ghani, Azra C / Walker, Patrick G T / Hallett, Timothy B

    Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

    2021  Volume 75, Issue 1, Page(s) e224–e233

    Abstract: Background: The public health impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research ... ...

    Abstract Background: The public health impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear.
    Methods: Using a mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care.
    Results: The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R = 1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalization) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics.
    Conclusions: Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focused on hospitalized-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.
    MeSH term(s) Cost of Illness ; Humans ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Pharmaceutical Preparations ; SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19 Drug Treatment
    Chemical Substances Pharmaceutical Preparations
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-09-20
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1099781-7
    ISSN 1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
    ISSN (online) 1537-6591
    ISSN 1058-4838
    DOI 10.1093/cid/ciab837
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article ; Online: Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties On SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis

    Whittaker, Charles / Watson, Oliver / Alvarez-Moreno, Carlos / Angkasekwinai, Nasikarn / Boonyasiri, Adhiratha / Carlos-Triana, Luis / Chanda, Duncan / Charoenpong, Lantharita / Chayakulkeeree, Methee / Cooke, Graham / Croda, Julio / Cucunuba, Zulma / Djafaara, Bimandra / Estofolete, Cassia / Eugenia-Grillet, Maria / Faria, Nuno / Figueiredo-Costa, Silva / Forero-Pena, David / Gibb, Diana /
    Gordon, Anthony / Hamers, Raph / Hamlet, Arran / Irawany, Vera / Jitmuang, Anupop / Keurueangkul, Nukool / Kimani, Teresia Njoki / Lampo, Margarita / Levin, Anna / Lopardo, Gustavo / Mustafa, Rima / Nayagam, Shevanthi / Ngamprasertchai, Thundon / Njeri, Ng'ang'a Irene Hannah / Nogueira, Mauricio / Ortiz-Prado, Esteban / Perroud, Mauricio / Phillips, Andrew / Promsin, Panuwat / Qavi, Ambar / Rodger, Alison / Sabino, Ester / Sangkaew, Sorawat / Sari, Djayanti / Sirijatuphat, Rujipas / Sposito, Andrei / Srisangthong, Pratthana / Thompson, Hayley / Udwadia, Zarir / Valderrama-Beltran, Sandra / Winskill, Peter / Ghani, Azra / Walker, Patrick / Hallett, Timothy

    medRxiv

    Abstract: Background The unprecedented public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement ... ...

    Abstract Background The unprecedented public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. Methods and Findings We develop a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care to explore the potential public-health impact of a range of different potential therapeutics, under a range of different scenarios varying: i) healthcare capacity, ii) epidemic trajectories; and iii) drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. In each case, the outcome of interest was the number of COVID-19 deaths averted in scenarios with the therapeutic compared to scenarios without. We find the impact of drugs like dexamethasone (which are delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R=1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalisation) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. Conclusions There is a global asymmetry in who is likely to benefit from advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date, which have been focussed on hospitalised-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics that can feasibly be delivered to those earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-06-20
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2021.06.17.21259078
    Database COVID19

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