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Article: Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

Khanal, S. / Lutz, A.F. / Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A. / van den Hurk, B. / Yao, T. / Immerzeel, W. W.

Water resources research. 2021 May, v. 57, no. 5

2021

Abstract: The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment to large river basin scale and from sub‐daily to decade and century scale. To robustly assess the 21st ... ...

Abstract	The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment to large river basin scale and from sub‐daily to decade and century scale. To robustly assess the 21st century climate change impact for hydrology in entire High Mountain Asia (HMA) at a wide range of scales, we use a high resolution cryospheric‐hydrological model covering 15 upstream HMA basins to quantify the compound effects of future changes in precipitation and temperature based on the range of climate change projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate model ensemble. Our analysis reveals contrasting responses for HMA's rivers, dictated by their hydrological regimes. At the seasonal scale, the earlier onset of melting causes a shift in the magnitude and peak of water availability, to earlier in the year. At the decade to century scale, after an initial increase, the glacier melt declines by the mid or end of the century except for the Tarim river basin, where it continues to increase. Despite a large variability in hydrological regimes across HMA's rivers, our results indicate relatively consistent climate change responses across HMA in terms of total water availability at decadal time scales. Although total water availability increases for the headwaters, changes in seasonality and magnitude may diverge widely between basins and need to be addressed while adapting to future changes in a region where food security, energy security as well as biodiversity, and the livelihoods of many depend on water from HMA.
Keywords	biodiversity ; climate change ; climate models ; energy ; food security ; glaciers ; mountains ; research ; temperature ; water ; watersheds ; Asia
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-05
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	5564-5
ISSN	1944-7973 ; 0043-1397
ISSN (online)	1944-7973
ISSN	0043-1397
DOI	10.1029/2020WR029266
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Heterogeneous Influence of Glacier Morphology on the Mass Balance Variability in High Mountain Asia

Brun, F. / Wagnon, P. / Berthier, E. / Jomelli, V. / Maharjan, S. B. / Shrestha, F. / Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.

Journal of geophysical research. 2019 June, v. 124, no. 6

2019

Abstract: We investigate the control of the morphological variables on the 2000–2016 glacier‐wide mass balances of 6,470 individual glaciers of High Mountain Asia. We separate the data set into 12 regions assumed to be climatically homogeneous. We find that the ... ...

Abstract	We investigate the control of the morphological variables on the 2000–2016 glacier‐wide mass balances of 6,470 individual glaciers of High Mountain Asia. We separate the data set into 12 regions assumed to be climatically homogeneous. We find that the slope of the glacier tongue, mean glacier elevation, percentage of supraglacial debris cover, and avalanche contributing area all together explain a maximum of 48% and a minimum of 8% of the glacier‐wide mass balance variability, within a given region. The best predictors of the glacier‐wide mass balance are the slope of the glacier tongue and the mean glacier elevation for most regions, with the notable exception of the inner Tibetan Plateau. Glacier‐wide mass balances do not differ significantly between debris‐free and debris‐covered glaciers in 7 of the 12 regions analyzed. Lake‐terminating glaciers have more negative mass balances than the regional averages, the influence of lakes being stronger on small glaciers than on large glaciers.
Keywords	data collection ; geophysics ; glaciers ; research ; China
Language	English
Dates of publication	2019-06
Size	p. 1331-1345.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ISSN	2169-9003
DOI	10.1029/2018JF004838
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's glaciers.

Kraaijenbrink, P D A / Bierkens, M F P / Lutz, A F / Immerzeel, W W

Nature

2017 Volume 549, Issue 7671, Page(s) 257–260

Abstract: Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia (HMA) make a substantial contribution to the water supply of millions of people, and they are retreating and losing mass as a result of anthropogenic climate change at similar rates to those seen elsewhere. In the ... ...

Abstract	Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia (HMA) make a substantial contribution to the water supply of millions of people, and they are retreating and losing mass as a result of anthropogenic climate change at similar rates to those seen elsewhere. In the Paris Agreement of 2015, 195 nations agreed on the aspiration to limit the level of global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius ( °C) above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not known what an increase of 1.5 °C would mean for the glaciers in HMA. Here we show that a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C will lead to a warming of 2.1 ± 0.1 °C in HMA, and that 64 ± 7 per cent of the present-day ice mass stored in the HMA glaciers will remain by the end of the century. The 1.5 °C goal is extremely ambitious and is projected by only a small number of climate models of the conservative IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 ensemble. Projections for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 reveal that much of the glacier ice is likely to disappear, with projected mass losses of 49 ± 7 per cent, 51 ± 6 per cent and 64 ± 5 per cent, respectively, by the end of the century; these projections have potentially serious consequences for regional water management and mountain communities.
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-09-13
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	120714-3
ISSN	1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
ISSN (online)	1476-4687
ISSN	0028-0836
DOI	10.1038/nature23878
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Article ; Online: Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

Lutz, A F / Immerzeel, W W / Kraaijenbrink, P D A / Shrestha, A B / Bierkens, M F P

PloS one

2016 Volume 11, Issue 11, Page(s) e0165630

Abstract: The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are ... ...

Abstract	The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.
MeSH term(s)	Afghanistan ; China ; Climate ; Climate Change/statistics & numerical data ; Hydrology/methods ; Hydrology/statistics & numerical data ; Ice Cover ; India ; Models, Statistical ; Pakistan ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Snow ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; Water Supply/statistics & numerical data
Language	English
Publishing date	2016
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0165630
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: Object-based analysis of unmanned aerial vehicle imagery to map and characterise surface features on a debris-covered glacier

Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A / F. Pellicciotti / J.M. Shea / S.M. de Jong / W.W. Immerzeel

Remote sensing of environment. 2016 Dec. 01, v. 186

2016

Abstract: Debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya may have spatially-averaged rates of surface height change that are similar to those observed on bare-ice glaciers, despite the insulating effects of thick debris. Spatially heterogeneous melt patterns caused by ... ...

Abstract	Debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya may have spatially-averaged rates of surface height change that are similar to those observed on bare-ice glaciers, despite the insulating effects of thick debris. Spatially heterogeneous melt patterns caused by the development and evolution of ice cliffs and supraglacial pond systems result in substantial mass losses over time. However, mechanisms controlling the formation and survival of cliffs and ponds remain largely unknown. To study the distribution and characteristics of these surface features we deploy an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) over a stretch of the debris-covered Langtang Glacier, Nepal. Acquired images are processed into high-resolution orthomosaics and elevation models with the Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry algorithm. Ice cliffs and ponds are classified using object-based image analysis (OBIA) and their morphology and spatial distribution are analysed and evaluated using object, pixel and point cloud approaches. Results show that ice cliffs are predominantly north-facing, and larger ice cliffs are generally coupled with supraglacial ponds, which may affect their evolution considerably. The spatial distribution of ice cliffs indicates that they are more likely to form in areas where high strain rates are expected. The spatial configuration of ponds over the entire tongue reveals high pond density near confluences, possibly due to closure of conduits via transverse compression. We conclude that the combination of OBIA and UAV imagery is a valuable tool in the semi-automatic and objective analysis of surface features on debris-covered glaciers. The technique may also have potential for upscaling to the use of spaceborne imagery, and the use of UAV-derived point clouds to analyse ice cliff undercuts is promising.
Keywords	algorithms ; cliffs ; deformation ; glaciers ; ice ; image analysis ; melting ; models ; photogrammetry ; ponds ; remote sensing ; unmanned aerial vehicles ; Himalayan region ; Nepal
Language	English
Dates of publication	2016-1201
Size	p. 581-595.
Publishing place	Elsevier Inc.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	431483-9
ISSN	0034-4257
ISSN	0034-4257
DOI	10.1016/j.rse.2016.09.013
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers.

Immerzeel, W W / Lutz, A F / Andrade, M / Bahl, A / Biemans, H / Bolch, T / Hyde, S / Brumby, S / Davies, B J / Elmore, A C / Emmer, A / Feng, M / Fernández, A / Haritashya, U / Kargel, J S / Koppes, M / Kraaijenbrink, P D A / Kulkarni, A V / Mayewski, P A /

Nepal, S / Pacheco, P / Painter, T H / Pellicciotti, F / Rajaram, H / Rupper, S / Sinisalo, A / Shrestha, A B / Viviroli, D / Wada, Y / Xiao, C / Yao, T / Baillie, J E M

Nature

2019 Volume 577, Issue 7790, Page(s) 364–369

Abstract: Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water ... ...

Abstract	Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands
MeSH term(s)	Altitude ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Water ; Water Supply
Chemical Substances	Water (059QF0KO0R)
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-12-09
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	120714-3
ISSN	1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
ISSN (online)	1476-4687
ISSN	0028-0836
DOI	10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y
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Article ; Online: Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers

Immerzeel, W.W. / Lutz, A.F. / Andrade, M. / Bahl, A. / Biemans, H. / Bolch, T. / Hyde, S. / Brumby, S. / Davies, B.J. / Elmore, A.C. / Emmer, A. / Feng, M. / Fernández, A. / Haritashya, U. / Kargel, J.S. / Koppes, M. / Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A. / Kulkarni, A.V. / Mayewski, P.A. /

Nepal, S. / Pacheco, P. / Painter, T.H. / Pellicciotti, F. / Rajaram, H. / Rupper, S. / Sinisalo, A. / Shrestha, A.B. / Viviroli, D. / Wada, Y. / Xiao, C. / Yao, T. / Baillie, J.E.M.

Nature

2020 Volume 577, Issue 7790

Abstract: Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands1,2. They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change3,4, yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the ...

Abstract	Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands1,2. They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change3,4, yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here we present a global water tower index (WTI), which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each water tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socio-economic changes. We conclude that the most important (highest WTI) water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountainous areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world’s most important and vulnerable water towers.
Keywords	Life Science
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing country	nl
Document type	Article ; Online
ZDB-ID	120714-3
ISSN	1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
ISSN (online)	1476-4687
ISSN	0028-0836
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Nepal, S. / Pacheco, P. / Painter, T.H. / Pelliccioti, F. / Rajaram, H. / Rupper, S. / Sinisalo, A. / Shrestha, A.B. / Viviroli, D. / Wada, Y. / Xiao, C. / Yao, T. / Baillie, J.E.M.

Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers

2019

Keywords	importance ; mountains ; vulnerability ; water towers
Publisher	Utrecht University
Publishing country	nl
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal's 2015 Gorkha earthquake.

Kargel, J S / Leonard, G J / Shugar, D H / Haritashya, U K / Bevington, A / Fielding, E J / Fujita, K / Geertsema, M / Miles, E S / Steiner, J / Anderson, E / Bajracharya, S / Bawden, G W / Breashears, D F / Byers, A / Collins, B / Dhital, M R / Donnellan, A / Evans, T L /

Geai, M L / Glasscoe, M T / Green, D / Gurung, D R / Heijenk, R / Hilborn, A / Hudnut, K / Huyck, C / Immerzeel, W W / Liming, Jiang / Jibson, R / Kääb, A / Khanal, N R / Kirschbaum, D / Kraaijenbrink, P D A / Lamsal, D / Shiyin, Liu / Mingyang, Lv / McKinney, D / Nahirnick, N K / Zhuotong, Nan / Ojha, S / Olsenholler, J / Painter, T H / Pleasants, M / Pratima, K C / Yuan, Q I / Raup, B H / Regmi, D / Rounce, D R / Sakai, A / Donghui, Shangguan / Shea, J M / Shrestha, A B / Shukla, A / Stumm, D / van der Kooij, M / Voss, K / Xin, Wang / Weihs, B / Wolfe, D / Lizong, Wu / Xiaojun, Yao / Yoder, M R / Young, N

Science (New York, N.Y.)

2016 Volume 351, Issue 6269, Page(s) aac8353

Abstract: The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, ... ...

Abstract	The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes' induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision-makers. We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage but found only nine landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.
MeSH term(s)	Disasters/prevention & control ; Earthquakes/mortality ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Floods ; Humans ; Lakes ; Landslides/mortality ; Nepal ; Safety Management/methods ; Satellite Imagery
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-01-08
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
ZDB-ID	128410-1
ISSN	1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
ISSN (online)	1095-9203
ISSN	0036-8075
DOI	10.1126/science.aac8353
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