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  1. Article ; Online: How heterogeneity in density dependence affects disease spread: when lifestyle matters.

    Kribs, Christopher M / Alharbi, Mohammed H

    Journal of biological dynamics

    2023  Volume 17, Issue 1, Page(s) 2242389

    Abstract: People's lifestyles play a major role in disease risk. Some employment sectors and transport modes involve fixed exposures regardless of community size, while in other settings exposure tracks with population density. MERS-CoV, a coronavirus discovered ... ...

    Abstract People's lifestyles play a major role in disease risk. Some employment sectors and transport modes involve fixed exposures regardless of community size, while in other settings exposure tracks with population density. MERS-CoV, a coronavirus discovered in Saudi Arabia in 2012 closely related to those causing SARS and COVID-19, appears to need extended contact time for transmission, making some segments of a community at greater risk than others. We model mathematically how heterogeneity in contact rate structure impacts disease spread, using as a case study a MERS outbreak in two Saudi Arabian communities. We divide the at-risk population into segments with exposure rates either independent of population density or density-dependent. Analysis shows disease spread is minimized for intermediate size populations with a limited proportion of individuals in the density-independent group. In the case study, the high proportion of density-independent exposure may explain the historical outbreak's extinction in the larger city.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Saudi Arabia/epidemiology ; Models, Biological ; Disease Outbreaks ; Life Style
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-07-31
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
    ZDB-ID 2274786-2
    ISSN 1751-3766 ; 1751-3758
    ISSN (online) 1751-3766
    ISSN 1751-3758
    DOI 10.1080/17513758.2023.2242389
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Impact of tetravalent dengue vaccination with screening, ADE, and altered infectivity on single-serotype dengue and Zika transmission.

    Kribs, Christopher / Greenhalgh, David

    Journal of mathematical biology

    2023  Volume 86, Issue 5, Page(s) 85

    Abstract: Acquired immunity to a dengue virus serotype (whether by infection or the only licensed dengue vaccine) can produce antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in later infections with another dengue serotype, resulting in higher viral loads and more severe ... ...

    Abstract Acquired immunity to a dengue virus serotype (whether by infection or the only licensed dengue vaccine) can produce antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in later infections with another dengue serotype, resulting in higher viral loads and more severe symptoms such as dengue hemorrhagic fever, unless the person already has immunity to multiple dengue serotypes. Screening to confirm dengue seropositivity is therefore recommended before vaccination. Recent studies suggest that the closely-related Zika virus may also interact with dengue through ADE. This study uses a mathematical model to evaluate the likely impact of imperfect screening and dengue vaccination on the spread of both viruses in a population where only one dengue serotype circulates, although the vaccine may take against any or all of the four recognized serotypes. Analysis focuses on the reproductive numbers of the viruses. Results indicate that vaccination increases the spread of Zika through induced ADE, while its impact on the spread of dengue depends on screening specificity and serotype-specific vaccine efficacies, as well as the intensity of ADE. Numerical analysis identifies the roles played by age-in and catch-up vaccination as well as screening characteristics and prior dengue exposure.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Dengue ; Zika Virus ; Dengue Virus ; Serogroup ; Antibodies, Viral ; Antibody-Dependent Enhancement ; Zika Virus Infection/prevention & control ; Vaccines ; Vaccination
    Chemical Substances Antibodies, Viral ; Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-04-29
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 187101-8
    ISSN 1432-1416 ; 0303-6812
    ISSN (online) 1432-1416
    ISSN 0303-6812
    DOI 10.1007/s00285-023-01915-7
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  3. Article ; Online: Correction to: A Mathematical Modeling Study: Assessing Impact of Mismatch Between Influenza Vaccine Strains and Circulating Strains in Hajj.

    Alharbi, Mohammed H / Kribs, Christopher M

    Bulletin of mathematical biology

    2022  Volume 84, Issue 8, Page(s) 83

    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-07-06
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Published Erratum
    ZDB-ID 184905-0
    ISSN 1522-9602 ; 0007-4985 ; 0092-8240
    ISSN (online) 1522-9602
    ISSN 0007-4985 ; 0092-8240
    DOI 10.1007/s11538-022-01038-y
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  4. Article ; Online: How influenza vaccination and virus interference may impact combined influenza-coronavirus disease burden.

    Alharbi, Mohammed H / Kribs, Christopher M

    Journal of mathematical biology

    2022  Volume 85, Issue 1, Page(s) 10

    Abstract: Demand for influenza vaccine rose as countries prepared for the second COVID-19 wave over the winter months of 2020-2021. High coverage of the influenza vaccine can significantly reduce morbidity and mortality of the burden of influenza. Natural ... ...

    Abstract Demand for influenza vaccine rose as countries prepared for the second COVID-19 wave over the winter months of 2020-2021. High coverage of the influenza vaccine can significantly reduce morbidity and mortality of the burden of influenza. Natural influenza infection creates short-term non-specific immunity against respiratory viruses (virus interference). We model two viral diseases, both of the SEIR type, to investigate whether the influenza vaccine increases the combined disease burden of influenza and COVID-19 in a dual outbreak. We show that the combined disease burden's behavior depends on virus interference factors and the proportion of the population vaccinated against influenza. Our results indicate that influenza vaccination only lowers the overall disease burden when net virus interference is relatively low.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Cost of Illness ; Humans ; Influenza Vaccines ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Influenza, Human/prevention & control ; Vaccination
    Chemical Substances Influenza Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-07-15
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 187101-8
    ISSN 1432-1416 ; 0303-6812
    ISSN (online) 1432-1416
    ISSN 0303-6812
    DOI 10.1007/s00285-022-01767-7
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 1495: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  5. Article ; Online: Honoring the life and legacy of Fred Brauer.

    Kribs, Christopher M / van den Driessche, Pauline

    Journal of biological dynamics

    2023  Volume 17, Issue 1, Page(s) 2285096

    Abstract: The work of Fred Brauer (1932-2021) broke new ground in several areas of mathematical population biology, especially mathematical epidemiology and population management. This special issue reflects his legacy: the lines of inquiry he opened, the impact ... ...

    Abstract The work of Fred Brauer (1932-2021) broke new ground in several areas of mathematical population biology, especially mathematical epidemiology and population management. This special issue reflects his legacy: the lines of inquiry he opened, the impact of his research and his books, and his mentoring of generations of young researchers. This dedication highlights milestones in his career and connects his work to the contributions in this issue.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-11-21
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2274786-2
    ISSN 1751-3766 ; 1751-3758
    ISSN (online) 1751-3766
    ISSN 1751-3758
    DOI 10.1080/17513758.2023.2285096
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  6. Article ; Online: A celebration of Fred Brauer's legacy in mathematical biology.

    Kribs, Christopher / Ruan, Shigui / Feng, Zhilan

    Journal of mathematical biology

    2023  Volume 87, Issue 2, Page(s) 37

    Abstract: Fred Brauer (1932-2021), one of the pioneers of mathematical population biology, shaped generations of researchers through his lines of research, his books which have become key references in the field, and his mentoring of junior researchers. This ... ...

    Abstract Fred Brauer (1932-2021), one of the pioneers of mathematical population biology, shaped generations of researchers through his lines of research, his books which have become key references in the field, and his mentoring of junior researchers. This dedication reviews some of his work in population harvesting and epidemiological modeling, highlighting how this special collection reflects the impact of his legacy through both his research accomplishments and the formation of new researchers.
    MeSH term(s) Biology ; Mathematics
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-08-03
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 187101-8
    ISSN 1432-1416 ; 0303-6812
    ISSN (online) 1432-1416
    ISSN 0303-6812
    DOI 10.1007/s00285-023-01971-z
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 1495: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
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  7. Article ; Online: Impact of cattle on joint dynamics and disease burden of Japanese encephalitis and leptospirosis.

    Zahid, Mondal Hasan / Kribs, Christopher M

    Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE

    2021  Volume 18, Issue 4, Page(s) 3046–3072

    Abstract: Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne neglected tropical disease. JE is mostly found in rural areas where people usually keep cattle at home for their needs. Cattle in households reduce JE virus infections since they distract vectors and act as ... ...

    Abstract Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne neglected tropical disease. JE is mostly found in rural areas where people usually keep cattle at home for their needs. Cattle in households reduce JE virus infections since they distract vectors and act as a dead-end host for the virus. However, the presence of cattle introduces risk of leptospirosis infections in humans. Leptospirosis is a bacterial disease that spreads through direct or indirect contact of urine of the infected cattle. Thus, cattle have both positive and negative impacts on human disease burden. This study uses a mathematical model to study the joint dynamics of these two diseases in the presence of cattle and to identify the net impact of cattle on the annual disease burden in JE-prevalent areas. Analysis indicates that the presence of cattle helps to reduce the overall disease burden in JE-prevalent areas. However, this reduction is dominated by the vector's feeding pattern. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the joint dynamics of JE and leptospirosis.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Cattle ; Cost of Illness ; Encephalitis Virus, Japanese ; Encephalitis, Japanese/epidemiology ; Encephalitis, Japanese/veterinary ; Leptospirosis/epidemiology ; Leptospirosis/veterinary
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-07-01
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2265126-3
    ISSN 1551-0018 ; 1551-0018
    ISSN (online) 1551-0018
    ISSN 1551-0018
    DOI 10.3934/mbe.2021153
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  8. Article ; Online: A Mathematical Modeling Study: Assessing Impact of Mismatch Between Influenza Vaccine Strains and Circulating Strains in Hajj.

    Alharbi, Mohammed H / Kribs, Christopher M

    Bulletin of mathematical biology

    2021  Volume 83, Issue 1, Page(s) 7

    Abstract: The influenza virus causes severe respiratory illnesses and deaths worldwide every year. It spreads quickly in an overcrowded area like the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. Vaccination is the primary strategy for protection against influenza. Due ... ...

    Abstract The influenza virus causes severe respiratory illnesses and deaths worldwide every year. It spreads quickly in an overcrowded area like the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. Vaccination is the primary strategy for protection against influenza. Due to the occurrence of antigenic shift and drift of the influenza virus, a mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating strains of influenza may occur. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating strains during Hajj, which brings together individuals from all over the globe. To this end, we develop deterministic mathematical models of influenza with different populations and strains from the northern and southern hemispheres. Our results show that the existence and duration of an influenza outbreak during Hajj depend on vaccine efficacy. In this concern, we discuss four scenarios: vaccine strains for both groups match/mismatch circulating strains, and vaccine strains match their target strains and mismatch the other strains. Further, there is a scenario where a novel pandemic strain arises. Our results show that as long as the influenza vaccines match their target strains, there will be no outbreak of strain H1N1 and only a small outbreak of strain H3N2. Mismatching for non-target strains causes about 10,000 new H3N2 cases, and mismatching for both strains causes about 2,000 more new H1N1 cases and 6,000 additional H3N2 cases during Hajj. Complete mismatch in a pandemic scenario may infect over 342,000 additional pilgrims (13.75%) and cause more cases in their home countries.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype ; Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype ; Influenza Vaccines/immunology ; Influenza Vaccines/standards ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Influenza, Human/prevention & control ; Influenza, Human/virology ; Islam ; Models, Biological ; Saudi Arabia/epidemiology
    Chemical Substances Influenza Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-01-02
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 184905-0
    ISSN 1522-9602 ; 0007-4985 ; 0092-8240
    ISSN (online) 1522-9602
    ISSN 0007-4985 ; 0092-8240
    DOI 10.1007/s11538-020-00836-6
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.B 754: Show issues Location:
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  9. Article ; Online: Competition between obligate and facultative scavengers and infection: vulture-jackal-anthrax dynamics in Etosha National Park.

    Kribs, Christopher M / Mackey, Crystal

    Journal of theoretical biology

    2021  Volume 537, Page(s) 110981

    Abstract: Different species of scavengers may compete for the same food in an ecosystem. This case study considers the competition between jackals and vultures in Etosha National Park in Namibia. While jackals are facultative scavengers, able to hunt for food if ... ...

    Abstract Different species of scavengers may compete for the same food in an ecosystem. This case study considers the competition between jackals and vultures in Etosha National Park in Namibia. While jackals are facultative scavengers, able to hunt for food if necessary, vultures are obligate scavengers wholly dependent on carcasses of animals like zebras for persistence. This competition may be further affected by outbreaks of infections such as anthrax, which temporarily increase the number of carcasses but lower the zebra population, acting in some ways as a third competitor. We use a dynamical system to model the interplay between competition dynamics and infection dynamics, and how it is affected by the nature of the competition: indirect (exploitative) or direct (interference). A bifurcation analysis using reproduction numbers shows how vultures' survival may depend on their direct competitive edge in reaching carcasses faster than jackals, and how the infection and the scavengers complicate each other's persistence. Vultures' interference causes a backward bifurcation which enables them to persist. One possible outcome is a "strange bedfellows" bistability in which anthrax and vultures persist only together, not apart, despite being competitors.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Anthrax ; Ecosystem ; Falconiformes ; Jackals ; Parks, Recreational
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-12-14
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2972-5
    ISSN 1095-8541 ; 0022-5193
    ISSN (online) 1095-8541
    ISSN 0022-5193
    DOI 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110981
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 923: Show issues Location:
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  10. Article ; Online: Can scavengers save zebras from anthrax? A modeling study.

    Mackey, Crystal / Kribs, Christopher

    Infectious Disease Modelling

    2020  Volume 6, Page(s) 56–74

    Abstract: Namibia's Etosha National Park (ENP) is home to many different animals such as lions, jackals, hyenas, zebras, elephants, etc. Each year, grazing animals are infected and die from anthrax caused by the ... ...

    Abstract Namibia's Etosha National Park (ENP) is home to many different animals such as lions, jackals, hyenas, zebras, elephants, etc. Each year, grazing animals are infected and die from anthrax caused by the bacteria
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-11-07
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 3015225-2
    ISSN 2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
    ISSN (online) 2468-0427
    ISSN 2468-2152
    DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.016
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