Article ; Online: Prediction of volatility and seasonality vegetation by using the GARCH and Holt-Winters models.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
2024 Volume 196, Issue 3, Page(s) 288
Abstract: Seasonality and volatility of vegetation in the ecosystem are associated with climatic sensitivity, which can have severe consequences for the environment as well as on the social and economic well-being of the nation. Monitoring and forecasting ... ...
| Abstract | Seasonality and volatility of vegetation in the ecosystem are associated with climatic sensitivity, which can have severe consequences for the environment as well as on the social and economic well-being of the nation. Monitoring and forecasting vegetation growth patterns in ecosystems significantly rely on remotely sensed vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A novel integration of the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and the Holt-Winters (H-W) models was used to simulate the seasonality and volatility of the three different agro-climatic zones in Jharkhand, India: the central north-eastern, eastern, and south-eastern agro-climatic zones. MODIS Terra Vegetation Indices NDVI data MOD13Q1, from 2001 to 2021, was used to create NDVI time series volatility and seasonality modeled by the GARCH and the H-W models, respectively. GARCH-based Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) [1,1] and Standard GARCH (SGARCH) [1,1] models were used to check the volatility of vegetation growth in three different agro-climatic zones of Jharkhand. The SGARCH [1,1] and EGARCH [1,1] models for the western agro-climatic zone experienced the best indicator as it has maximum likelihood and minimal Schwarz-Bayesian criterion and Akaike information criterion. The seasonality results showed that the additive H-W model showed better results in the eastern agro-climatic zone with the optimized values of MAE (16.49), MAPE (0.49), NSE (0.86), RMSE (0.49), and R |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MeSH term(s) | Ecosystem ; Bayes Theorem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Seasons ; India | |||||
| Language | English | |||||
| Publishing date | 2024-02-21 | |||||
| Publishing country | Netherlands | |||||
| Document type | Journal Article | |||||
| ZDB-ID | 782621-7 | |||||
| ISSN | 1573-2959 ; 0167-6369 | |||||
| ISSN (online) | 1573-2959 | |||||
| ISSN | 0167-6369 | |||||
| DOI | 10.1007/s10661-024-12437-0 | |||||
| Shelf mark |
|
|||||
| Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
Full text online
More links
Kategorien
In stock of ZB MED Bonn / Germany
| Z 5186: Show issues |
Order via subito
This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.
Inter-library loan at ZB MED
Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.