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  1. Article: Political Budget Cycles in Early Versus Regular Elections: The Case of Serbia.

    Ivanovic, Vladan / Lami, Endrit / Imami, Drini

    Comparative economic studies

    2023  , Page(s) 1–31

    Abstract: The paper analyses Political Budget Cycles in the context of a young post-communist democracy, Serbia. The authors deploy well-established methodological (time series) approaches to examine the general government budget balance (fiscal deficit) in ... ...

    Abstract The paper analyses Political Budget Cycles in the context of a young post-communist democracy, Serbia. The authors deploy well-established methodological (time series) approaches to examine the general government budget balance (fiscal deficit) in conjunction with elections. The findings suggest that there is clear evidence of higher fiscal deficit prior to elections-however, this is the case only for regular (scheduled) elections and not so for snap (early called) elections. The paper contributes to the PBC literature by revealing different incumbent behaviour in regular versus early elections, thus highlighting the importance of distinguishing between these types of elections in the domain of PBC research.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-03-07
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 0888-7233
    ISSN 0888-7233
    DOI 10.1057/s41294-023-00210-0
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article: Informal construction as political currency: A theory of ‘election-driven informality’

    Imami, Drini / Lami, Endrit / Pojani, Dorina

    Land use policy. 2022 Jan., v. 112

    2022  

    Abstract: Incumbent governments commonly increase public expenditures prior to elections in order to curry favor with voters and boost their chances of retaining office. This study, set in Albania, focuses on a non-fiscal approach to winning votes: condoning, or ... ...

    Abstract Incumbent governments commonly increase public expenditures prior to elections in order to curry favor with voters and boost their chances of retaining office. This study, set in Albania, focuses on a non-fiscal approach to winning votes: condoning, or at least tolerating, informal construction activities in the residential sector prior to elections. We term this approach ‘election-driven informality’ (EDI). This study provides longitudinal statistical evidence for EDI using a proxy indicator for informal construction. We hypothesize and prove that EDI is a reality rather than a mere perception - primarily for the 2017 election. That was when the government’s enforcement capacity in the construction sector was effective outside the election period. In a context where there is little moral value attached to law abidance, businesses or households that engage in informal economic activities might perceive a tolerant government as “magnanimous” and might be persuaded to support it in upcoming elections. From government’s perspective, EDI presents an opportunity for a version of “pork barrel” politics where “tolerance” is applied selectively or differentially to households, businesses, or whole regions.
    Keywords land policy ; morality ; politics ; Albania
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2022-01
    Publishing place Elsevier Ltd
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 852476-2
    ISSN 0264-8377
    ISSN 0264-8377
    DOI 10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105785
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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    In stock of ZB MED Bonn / Germany

    Z 4283: Show issues

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  3. Article: Election cycles in mining licensing: theory and evidence from Albania

    Imami, Drini / Lami, Endrit / Uberti, Luca J

    Post-communist economies Vol. 30, No. 1 , p. 99-116

    2018  Volume 30, Issue 1, Page(s) 99–116

    Author's details Drini Imami, Endrit Lami and Luca J. Uberti
    Keywords Political business cycles ; licensing ; mining ; corruption ; transition ; Poisson
    Language English
    Publisher Routledge
    Publishing place Abingdon, Oxfordshire
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 1470552-7 ; 1485001-1
    ISSN 1465-3958 ; 1463-1377 ; 1351-4393 ; 0954-0113
    ISSN (online) 1465-3958
    ISSN 1463-1377 ; 1351-4393 ; 0954-0113
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  4. Article: Fuelling political fiscal cycles by opportunistic privatization in transition economies

    Lami, Endrit / Imami, Drini / Kächelein, Holger

    Economic systems Vol. 40, No. 2 , p. 220-231

    the case of Albania

    2016  Volume 40, Issue 2, Page(s) 220–231

    Author's details Endrit Lami, Drini Imami, Holger Kächelein
    Keywords Privatization ; Political business cycles ; Elections ; Albania
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier
    Publishing place Amsterdam [u.a.]
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 1072886-7 ; 1459021-9
    ISSN 0939-3625
    ISSN 0939-3625
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  5. Article ; Online: Searching for political fiscal cycles in Hungary

    Lami, Endrit / Imami, Drini

    Contemporary economics Vol. 7, No. 4 , p. 73-98

    2013  Volume 7, Issue 4, Page(s) 73–98

    Abstract: Hungary has had a remarkably high public debt throughout the transition, and it has continued to increase during recent years, exceeding 80% of the GDP. Its debt and fiscal deficit were the highest among the Visegrád countries during the transition. One ... ...

    Author's details Endrit Lami; Drini Imami
    Abstract Hungary has had a remarkably high public debt throughout the transition, and it has continued to increase during recent years, exceeding 80% of the GDP. Its debt and fiscal deficit were the highest among the Visegrád countries during the transition. One factor triggering the debt increase may be elections-related fiscal policies. By analyzing quarterly data for Hungary, we found clear empirical evidence of fiscal expansion before elections and contractions afterwards. These events are widely known as political fiscal cycles. We observed statistically significant incremental increases in fiscal deficits as elections approach, both in nominal and in GDP ratios, followed by contractions after elections. Thus, it can be concluded that incumbents in Hungary are engaged in opportunistic political fiscal cycles by embracing expansionary fiscal policy before parliamentary elections. Our findings also suggest that political fiscal cycles in Hungary may be an underlying factor contributing to the accumulation of public debt.
    Keywords political fiscal cycles ; deficit ; Hungary
    Language English
    Size Online-Ressource, graph. Darst.
    Publisher Vizja Press & IT
    Publishing place Warszawa
    Document type Article ; Online
    ZDB-ID 2605668-9
    ISSN 2084-0845 ; 1897-9254
    ISSN (online) 2084-0845
    ISSN 1897-9254
    DOI 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.124
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  6. Article: A new view into political business cycles

    Lami, Endrit / Imami, Drini / Kächelein, Holger

    Acta oeconomica : periodical of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences Vol. 64 , p. 201-224

    household behaviour in Albania

    2014  Volume 64, Page(s) 201–224

    Author's details Endrit Lami - Holger Kächelein - Drini Imami
    Keywords political business cycle ; household behaviour ; elections ; Albania
    Language English
    Size graph. Darst.
    Publisher Akad.
    Publishing place Budapest
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 301591-9 ; 2110475-X
    ISSN 1588-2659 ; 0001-6373
    ISSN (online) 1588-2659
    ISSN 0001-6373
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  7. Book ; Online: A new view into political business cycles

    Imami, Drini / Kächelein, Holger / Lami, Endrit

    household expenditures in Albania

    (BERG Working paper series on government and growth ; 60)

    2008  

    Abstract: Over the last decades, there has been plenty of research and articles on Political Business Cycles (PBC), aiming at analyzing and explaining the use of fiscal and monetary instruments to stimulate economic growth before elections, to impress the voters. ... ...

    Author's details Holger Kächelein; Drini Imami; Endrit Lami
    Series title BERG Working paper series on government and growth ; 60
    Abstract Over the last decades, there has been plenty of research and articles on Political Business Cycles (PBC), aiming at analyzing and explaining the use of fiscal and monetary instruments to stimulate economic growth before elections, to impress the voters. Following other researches for PBC in Albania, in which there was found clear evidence of fiscal expansion before elections, but no significant changes in inflation and GDP, as theory predicts, we analyze the peoples’ expectations related to elections outcomes, and the way these expectations influence their decisions to spend, and consequently the macroeconomic variables. -- Political Business Cycle

    Household Behaviour

    Albanian
    Keywords Politischer Konjunkturzyklus ; Wahlverhalten ; Konsumentenverhalten ; Privater Haushalt ; Albanien
    Language English
    Size Online-Ressource (12 S.)
    Publisher Univ., Volkswirtschaftliche Forschungsstelle
    Publishing place Bamberg
    Document type Book ; Online
    Note IMD-Felder maschinell generiert
    ISBN 9783931052652 ; 3931052656
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  8. Book ; Online: Political cycles in income from privatization

    Imami, Drini / Kächelein, Holger / Lami, Endrit

    the case of Albania

    (BERG working paper series on government and growth ; 77)

    2011  

    Abstract: The phenomenon of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose is called Political Business Cycles (PBC). Using policy control economic instruments, such as fiscal and monetary instruments, governments may manipulate the economy to ... ...

    Author's details Drini Imami; Endrit Lami; Holger Kächelein
    Series title BERG working paper series on government and growth ; 77
    Abstract The phenomenon of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose is called Political Business Cycles (PBC). Using policy control economic instruments, such as fiscal and monetary instruments, governments may manipulate the economy to gain electoral advantage by producing growth and decreasing unemployment before elections. Earlier research on PBC in Albania found clear evidence of fiscal expansion before elections. In addition to increased income from taxes and borrowing, another source of financing the increased fiscal expansion in transition countries may be income from privatization, which is also the object of the analysis of this paper. In our analysis we apply standard econometric approach, used widely for research related to PBC. We test if income from privatization increases before elections. We find statistically significant increase of income from privatization before general (parliamentary) elections, which may lead us to conclude that one of the reasons may be to finance increased expenditures before elections. Another motivation, behind this behavior of the incumbent, may be rent – seeking. These results are of particular interest, as it is for the first time that income from privatization is analyzed in conjunction with PBC. -- Albania

    Political Business Cycle

    Privatization
    Keywords Privatisierung ; Öffentliche Einnahmen ; Politischer Konjunkturzyklus ; Finanzpolitik ; Rent-Seeking ; Albanien
    Language English
    Size Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 13 S., 274 KB)
    Publisher BERG
    Publishing place Bamberg
    Document type Book ; Online
    Note IMD-Felder maschinell generiert
    ISBN 9783931052874 ; 3931052877
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  9. Book ; Online: Elections related cycles in publicly supplied goods in Albania

    Kächelein, Holger / Imami, Drini / Lami, Endrit

    (BERG Working paper series on government and growth ; 71)

    2010  

    Abstract: The phenomena of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose are called Political Business Cycles (PBC), introduced by Nordhaus (1975). Using policy control economic instruments, as fiscal and monetary instruments, government may ... ...

    Author's details Holger Kächelein; Endrit Lami; Drini Imami
    Series title BERG Working paper series on government and growth ; 71
    Abstract The phenomena of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose are called Political Business Cycles (PBC), introduced by Nordhaus (1975). Using policy control economic instruments, as fiscal and monetary instruments, government may manipulate the economy to gain electoral advantage by producing growth and decreasing unemployment before elections. In addition to increased public expenditures, also the production/supply of certain publicly provided goods may score improvements. In Albania, production and supply of electricity (for the time span of our analyzes) was controlled by KESH (Korporata Energjitike Shqiptare – Albanian Energy Corporation) which is a quasi- monopoly in the supply of electricity in Albania, and it is publicly run. Throughout the transition, supply of electricity, due to various technical and economic reasons, has not been stable, and characterized by systematic interruption for households and businesses users, affecting their well-being and performance (electricity is a main source of energy for households, including heating and cooking). Therefore, it seems so that there is an incentive and rationale for the incumbent to use also the provision of electricity to impress the voters before elections, beside of the classical instruments of expenditures. In this paper we analyze consumption, production and import of electricity in Albania. Our hypothesis is that before elections, electricity consumption may increase above usual levels, followed by a contraction after elections. In our analysis we use modern standard econometric approach, used widely for research related to PBC. By ARMA modelling it is possible to prove if elections can explain changes in electricity production, in addition to the past history of the variable and the random error term. -- Political Business Cycle

    Electricity

    Albania
    Keywords Elektrizitätspolitik ; Elektrizitätswirtschaft ; Politischer Konjunkturzyklus ; Öffentliche Güter ; Albanien
    Language English
    Size Online-Ressource (23 S.)
    Publisher Univ., Volkswirtschaftliche Forschungsstelle
    Publishing place Bamberg
    Document type Book ; Online
    Note IMD-Felder maschinell generiert
    ISBN 9783931052799 ; 3931052796
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  10. Book ; Article ; Online: Elections related cycles in publicly supplied goods in Albania

    Kächelein, Holger / Lami, Endrit / Imami, Drini

    2010  

    Abstract: The phenomena of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose are called Political Business Cycles (PBC), introduced by Nordhaus (1975). Using policy control economic instruments, as fiscal and monetary instruments, government may ... ...

    Abstract The phenomena of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose are called Political Business Cycles (PBC), introduced by Nordhaus (1975). Using policy control economic instruments, as fiscal and monetary instruments, government may manipulate the economy to gain electoral advantage by producing growth and decreasing unemployment before elections. In addition to increased public expenditures, also the production/supply of certain publicly provided goods may score improvements. In Albania, production and supply of electricity (for the time span of our analyzes) was controlled by KESH (Korporata Energjitike Shqiptare - Albanian Energy Corporation) which is a quasi- monopoly in the supply of electricity in Albania, and it is publicly run. Throughout the transition, supply of electricity, due to various technical and economic reasons, has not been stable, and characterized by systematic interruption for households and businesses users, affecting their well-being and performance (electricity is a main source of energy for households, including heating and cooking). Therefore, it seems so that there is an incentive and rationale for the incumbent to use also the provision of electricity to impress the voters before elections, beside of the classical instruments of expenditures. In this paper we analyze consumption, production and import of electricity in Albania. Our hypothesis is that before elections, electricity consumption may increase above usual levels, followed by a contraction after elections. In our analysis we use modern standard econometric approach, used widely for research related to PBC. By ARMA modelling it is possible to prove if elections can explain changes in electricity production, in addition to the past history of the variable and the random error term.
    Keywords ddc:330 ; P26 ; E32 ; D72 ; H72 ; Political Business Cycle ; Electricity ; Albania ; Elektrizitätspolitik ; Elektrizitätswirtschaft ; Politischer Konjunkturzyklus ; Öffentliches Gut ; Albanien
    Subject code 660
    Language English
    Publisher Bamberg: Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group on Government and Growth (BERG)
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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