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  1. Article ; Online: A spatially explicit model for density that accounts for availability: a case study with Mojave desert tortoises

    Zylstra, Erin R. / Allison, L. J. / Averill‐Murray, Roy C. / Landau, Vincent / Pope, Nathaniel S. / Steidl, Robert J.

    Ecosphere. 2023 Mar., v. 14, no. 3 p.e4448-

    2023  

    Abstract: Estimating population density and identifying those areas where density is changing through time are central to prioritizing conservation and management strategies. Obtaining reliable estimates of density and trends can be challenging, however, ... ...

    Abstract Estimating population density and identifying those areas where density is changing through time are central to prioritizing conservation and management strategies. Obtaining reliable estimates of density and trends can be challenging, however, especially for long‐lived species that are rare, have broad geographic distributions, and are difficult to detect reliably during field surveys. We developed a hierarchical model for distance‐sampling data that characterizes spatial variation in density at two scales and simultaneously estimates regional trends while accounting for variation in detection probability and availability across surveys. We applied the model to data collected over a 20‐year period (2001–2020) in an area that encompassed most of the geographic range of the Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). Density of adult tortoises varied with multiple biotic and abiotic features, including topography, aspect, geology, and seasonal precipitation and temperature regimes. Across the entire period and study area, the density of adult tortoises decreased by an average of 1.8% per year (95% CI = −3.5% to −0.2%). Trends varied geographically, however, with the steepest declines in the western part of the range (−4.1%, −6.9% to −1.3%). Accounting for habitat loss across our study area, the abundance of this threatened species declined by an estimated 129,000 adults (36%) between 2001 and 2020. Our modeling approach extends traditional distance‐sampling frameworks by accounting for ecological and observational processes that could mask spatiotemporal variation in density and, at the same time, provides spatially explicit estimates to guide conservation and management strategies for tortoises and other rare species.
    Keywords Gopherus agassizii ; adults ; case studies ; geographical distribution ; habitat destruction ; models ; population density ; probability ; rare species ; temperature ; threatened species ; topography ; Mojave Desert
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2023-03
    Publishing place John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
    Document type Article ; Online
    Note JOURNAL ARTICLE
    ZDB-ID 2572257-8
    ISSN 2150-8925
    ISSN 2150-8925
    DOI 10.1002/ecs2.4448
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  2. Article: Integrating presence-only and occupancy data to model habitat use for the northernmost population of jaguars.

    Landau, Vincent A / Noon, Barry R / Theobald, David M / Hobbs, N Thompson / Nielsen, Clayton K

    Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America

    2022  Volume 32, Issue 6, Page(s) e2619

    Abstract: Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for the management and conservation of imperiled species. However, many at-risk species are rare and characterized by limited data on their spatial distribution and habitat relationships. ... ...

    Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for the management and conservation of imperiled species. However, many at-risk species are rare and characterized by limited data on their spatial distribution and habitat relationships. This has led to the development of SDMs that integrate multiple types and sources of data to leverage more information and provide improved predictions of habitat associations. We developed a novel integrated species distribution model to predict habitat suitability for jaguars (Panthera onca) in the border region between northern Mexico and the southwestern USA. Our model combined presence-only and occupancy data to identify key environmental correlates, and we used model results to develop a probability of use map. We adopted a logistic regression modeling framework, which we found to be more straightforward and less computationally intensive to fit than Poisson point process-based models. Model results suggested that high terrain ruggedness and the presence of riparian vegetation were most strongly related to habitat use by jaguars in our study region. Our best model, on average, predicted that there is currently 25,463 km
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Mexico ; Panthera ; Population Density
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-05-30
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1074505-1
    ISSN 1939-5582 ; 1051-0761
    ISSN (online) 1939-5582
    ISSN 1051-0761
    DOI 10.1002/eap.2619
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    Z 5240: Show issues

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  3. Article: Integrating presence‐only and occupancy data to model habitat use for the northernmost population of jaguars

    Landau, Vincent A. / Noon, Barry R. / Theobald, David M. / Hobbs, N. Thompson / Nielsen, Clayton K.

    Ecological applications. 2022 Sept., v. 32, no. 6

    2022  

    Abstract: Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for the management and conservation of imperiled species. However, many at‐risk species are rare and characterized by limited data on their spatial distribution and habitat relationships. ... ...

    Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for the management and conservation of imperiled species. However, many at‐risk species are rare and characterized by limited data on their spatial distribution and habitat relationships. This has led to the development of SDMs that integrate multiple types and sources of data to leverage more information and provide improved predictions of habitat associations. We developed a novel integrated species distribution model to predict habitat suitability for jaguars (Panthera onca) in the border region between northern Mexico and the southwestern USA. Our model combined presence‐only and occupancy data to identify key environmental correlates, and we used model results to develop a probability of use map. We adopted a logistic regression modeling framework, which we found to be more straightforward and less computationally intensive to fit than Poisson point process‐based models. Model results suggested that high terrain ruggedness and the presence of riparian vegetation were most strongly related to habitat use by jaguars in our study region. Our best model, on average, predicted that there is currently 25,463 km² of usable habitat in our study region. The United States portion of the study region, which makes up 38.6% of the total area, contained 40.6% of the total usable habitat. Even though there have been few detections of jaguars in the southwestern USA in recent decades, our results suggest that protection of currently suitable habitats, along with increased conservation efforts, could significantly contribute to the recovery of jaguars in the USA.
    Keywords Panthera onca ; geographical distribution ; habitat preferences ; habitats ; landscapes ; models ; probability ; regression analysis ; riparian vegetation ; threatened species ; Mexico ; Southwestern United States
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2022-09
    Publishing place John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
    Document type Article
    Note JOURNAL ARTICLE
    ZDB-ID 1074505-1
    ISSN 1939-5582 ; 1051-0761
    ISSN (online) 1939-5582
    ISSN 1051-0761
    DOI 10.1002/eap.2619
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    In stock of ZB MED Bonn / Germany

    Z 5240: Show issues

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  4. Article ; Online: Achieving conservation targets by jointly addressing climate change and biodiversity loss

    Suraci, Justin P. / Farwell, Laura S. / Littlefield, Caitlin / Freeman, Patrick T. / Zachmann, Luke J. / Landau, Vincent A. / Anderson, Jesse J. / Dickson, Brett G.

    Ecosphere. 2023 Apr., v. 14, no. 4 p.e4490-

    2023  

    Abstract: Unprecedented rates of climate change and biodiversity loss have galvanized efforts to expand protected areas (PAs) globally. However, limited spatial overlap between the most important landscapes for mitigating climate change and those with the highest ... ...

    Abstract Unprecedented rates of climate change and biodiversity loss have galvanized efforts to expand protected areas (PAs) globally. However, limited spatial overlap between the most important landscapes for mitigating climate change and those with the highest value for biodiversity may impede efforts to simultaneously address both issues through new protections. At the same time, there is a need to understand how lands with high conservation value align with existing patterns of land management, both public and private, which will inform strategies for developing new conservation areas. To address these challenges, we developed three composite indices to identify the highest conservation value lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) and Alaska, drawing on a suite of key ecological and environmental indicators. Two indices characterize the most important conservation lands for addressing climate change (based on climate accessibility, climate stability, and total carbon storage) and biodiversity (based on species richness, ecological integrity, and ecological connectivity), while a third, combined index simultaneously addresses both conservation challenges. We found that existing PAs in the United States have relatively low overlap with the highest conservation value lands, regardless of the index used (10%–13% in CONUS, 27%–34% in Alaska), suggesting limited effectiveness of current protections but substantial opportunity for expanding conservation into high‐value, unprotected areas. In unprotected landscapes, the highest value lands for addressing climate change generally diverged from those identified as most important for protecting biodiversity (22%–38% overlap, depending on index and geography). Our combined index reconciled these spatial trade‐offs through high overlap with both the climate and biodiversity indices (66%–72%). Of the unprotected high conservation value lands identified by each of our three indices, we found ≥70% are privately managed in CONUS, while 16%–27% are privately managed in Alaska, underscoring the need to engage private landowners and land trusts in efforts to substantially increase the total footprint of conservation lands in the United States. Our findings highlight the importance of balancing climate and biodiversity objectives when identifying new lands for conservation and provide guidance on where to target new protections to simultaneously address both goals. To facilitate planning using the indices, we developed an interactive web application.
    Keywords Internet ; carbon sequestration ; climate ; climate change ; geography ; land management ; species richness ; Alaska
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2023-04
    Publishing place John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
    Document type Article ; Online
    Note JOURNAL ARTICLE
    ZDB-ID 2572257-8
    ISSN 2150-8925
    ISSN 2150-8925
    DOI 10.1002/ecs2.4490
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  5. Article ; Online: Range‐wide occupancy trends for the Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii)

    Kissel, Amanda M. / Wallace, Bryan / Anderson, Jesse / Dickson, Brett G. / Van Neste, Kristen / Landau, Vincent / Averill‐Murray, Roy C. / Allison, L. J. / Fesnock, Amy

    Ecosphere. 2023 Mar., v. 14, no. 3 p.e4462-

    2023  

    Abstract: Data from long‐term monitoring programs, such as the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) line distance sampling (LDS) program for Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii), are increasingly being used in new ways to elucidate trends in population ... ...

    Abstract Data from long‐term monitoring programs, such as the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) line distance sampling (LDS) program for Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii), are increasingly being used in new ways to elucidate trends in population dynamics. We used the USFWS LDS data in a novel way to generate range‐wide predictions of occupancy, colonization, and local extinction rates from 2001 to 2018. We developed a dynamic occupancy model to answer fundamental questions posed by Bureau of Land Management personnel regarding how G. agassizii are distributed across the landscape over space and time. We transformed the LDS data into detection/nondetection data and constructed a Bayesian dynamic occupancy model using several time‐varying (e.g., temperature, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index, fire, and a proxy for invasive grasses) and static covariates (e.g., soil properties, topography, distance to roads, distance to urban areas) hypothesized to influence G. agassizii occupancy dynamics. We estimated that over the entire time series (2001–2018) the probability of G. agassizii occupancy is declining in over one quarter (26%) of the range, largely in the northeastern part of the range, but that from 2011 to 2018, 77% of the range has a declining trend. Drawing on these model outputs, we developed an interactive, web‐based tool for exploring trends in dynamic occupancy across the species range, allowing users to focus on areas of management interest or concern.
    Keywords Bayesian theory ; Gopherus agassizii ; Internet ; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ; extinction ; human resources ; land management ; landscapes ; models ; population dynamics ; probability ; soil ; space and time ; temperature ; time series analysis ; topography ; vegetation index ; Mojave Desert
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2023-03
    Publishing place John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
    Document type Article ; Online
    Note JOURNAL ARTICLE
    ZDB-ID 2572257-8
    ISSN 2150-8925
    ISSN 2150-8925
    DOI 10.1002/ecs2.4462
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  6. Article: Dominant sonoran desert plant species have divergent phenological responses to climate change

    Zachmann, Luke J. / Wiens, John F. / Franklin, Kim / Crausbay, Shelley D. / Landau, Vincent A. / Munson, Seth M.

    Madroño. 2021 Dec. 23, v. 68, no. 4

    2021  

    Abstract: The southwestern U.S. is a global hotspot of climate change. Models project that temperatures will continue to rise through the end of the 21st century, accompanied by significant changes to the hydrological cycle. Within the Sonoran Desert, a limited ... ...

    Abstract The southwestern U.S. is a global hotspot of climate change. Models project that temperatures will continue to rise through the end of the 21st century, accompanied by significant changes to the hydrological cycle. Within the Sonoran Desert, a limited number of studies have documented climate change impacts on the phenology of native plant species. Much of this phenological work to understand climate change impacts to phenology builds on research conducted nearly three decades ago to define flowering triggers and developmental requirements for native keystone Sonoran Desert woody species. Here we expand on the drivers and explore recent phenological trends for six species using a unique 36-year observational data set. We use statistical models to determine which aspects of climate influence the probability of flowering, and how flowering time may respond to climate change. We move beyond traditional models of phenology by incorporating different metrics of moisture availability in addition to temperature, weather, and climate at several time scales, including daily, weekly, seasonal, and antecedent conditions. Our results provide evidence of a trend towards earlier flowering (on the order of 1–4 days per decade) for five of the six species analyzed, and no trend for one species. The species we evaluated had contrasting phenological responses to different aspects of climate, suggesting individualistic changes in phenology and the potential of divergent plant community flowering patterns under future climate change. Understanding recent changes in flowering phenology and their climatic triggers is important to anticipating whether plant species can attract pollinators, reproduce, and persist within the community under continued climate change.
    Keywords climate ; climate change ; data collection ; hydrologic cycle ; indigenous species ; observational studies ; phenology ; plant communities ; probability ; temperature ; weather ; woody plants ; xerophytes ; Sonoran Desert ; Southwestern United States
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2021-1223
    Size p. 473-486.
    Publishing place California Botanical Society
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 2276951-1
    ISSN 1943-6297 ; 0024-9637
    ISSN (online) 1943-6297
    ISSN 0024-9637
    DOI 10.3120/0024-9637-68.4.473
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  7. Article: PS3: The Pheno-Synthesis software suite for integration and analysis of multi-scale, multi-platform phenological data

    Morisette, Jeffrey T. / Duffy, Katharyn A. / Weltzin, Jake F. / Browning, Dawn M. / Marsh, R. Lee / Friesz, Aaron M. / Zachmann, Luke J. / Enns, Kyle D. / Landau, Vincent A. / Gerst, Katharine L. / Crimmins, Theresa M. / Jones, Katherine D. / Chang, Tony / Miller, Brian W. / Maiersperger, Thomas K. / Richardson, Andrew D.

    Ecological informatics. 2021 Nov., v. 65

    2021  

    Abstract: Phenology is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages which can be observed across spatial and temporal scales that span orders of magnitude (e.g., organisms to landscapes). The variety of scales at which phenological processes operate ... ...

    Abstract Phenology is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages which can be observed across spatial and temporal scales that span orders of magnitude (e.g., organisms to landscapes). The variety of scales at which phenological processes operate is reflected in the range of methods for collecting phenologically relevant data, and the programs focused on these collections. Consideration of the scale at which phenological observations are made, and the platform used for observation, is critical for the interpretation of phenological data and the application of these data to both research questions and land management objectives. However, there is currently little capacity to facilitate access, integration and analysis of cross-scale, multi-platform phenological data. This paper reports on a new suite of software and analysis tools – the “Pheno-Synthesis Software Suite,” or PS3 – to facilitate integration and analysis of phenological and ancillary data, enabling investigation and interpretation of phenological processes at scales ranging from organisms to landscapes and from days to decades. We use PS3 to investigate phenological processes in a semi-aride, mixed shrub-grass ecosystem, and find that the apparent importance of seasonal precipitation to vegetation activity (i.e., “greenness”) is affected by the scale and platform of observation. We end by describing potential applications of PS3 to phenological modeling and forecasting, understanding patterns and drivers of phenological activity in real-world ecosystems, and supporting agricultural and natural resource management and decision-making.
    Keywords animals ; computer software ; decision making ; ecosystems ; land management ; phenology ; vegetation
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2021-11
    Publishing place Elsevier B.V.
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 2212016-6
    ISSN 1878-0512 ; 1574-9541
    ISSN (online) 1878-0512
    ISSN 1574-9541
    DOI 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101400
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    Z 7643: Show issues

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