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Article ; Online: The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100.

Kirby, Mac / Mainuddin, Mohammed

2022 Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 22344

Abstract: There are concerns that groundwater use for irrigation and for urban water supply is unsustainable in some parts of Bangladesh, particularly in the agriculturally productive northwest region. We use an integrated population - GDP - food - water model to ... ...

Abstract	There are concerns that groundwater use for irrigation and for urban water supply is unsustainable in some parts of Bangladesh, particularly in the agriculturally productive northwest region. We use an integrated population - GDP - food - water model to examine water demand to 2100 in Bangladesh in development scenarios relevant to food and water security. The results indicate that irrigation water demand is projected to increase in coming decades, but later in the century it may decrease due to increasing crop yields and a falling population. The increased demand is greatest in the northwest region and, if unchecked, would increase concerns there about the unsustainable use of groundwater. The growth in demand is determined particularly by growth in crop yields, population growth and the fraction of food demand satisfied by imports. An extreme hot-dry climate change scenario has a lesser impact. This suggests that, in principle, Bangladesh can offset the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand through its domestic policies. Urban water use currently also leads to concerns over unsustainable groundwater use. Our results suggest that urban water demand is likely to grow proportionately significantly more than irrigation water demand. Alternative sources for urban water are therefore urgently required.
MeSH term(s)	Population Growth ; Climate Change ; Bangladesh ; Water ; Models, Theoretical ; Water Supply ; Growth and Development
Chemical Substances	Water (059QF0KO0R)
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-12-26
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-022-26807-6
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Article: Impact of flood inundation and water management on water and salt balance of the polders and islands in the Ganges delta

Mainuddin, Mohammed / Kirby, John M

Ocean & coastal management. 2021 Sept. 01, v. 210

2021

Abstract: Inundation by sea water in coastal areas can devastate cropping; recovery from the impacts can be slow. We used a water and salt balance model of polders to investigate the impacts of and recovery from flood inundation by sea water. We applied the model ... ...

Abstract	Inundation by sea water in coastal areas can devastate cropping; recovery from the impacts can be slow. We used a water and salt balance model of polders to investigate the impacts of and recovery from flood inundation by sea water. We applied the model to three polders in the Ganges delta: Amtali, with high rainfall and low salinity; Dacope with intermediate rainfall and salinity; and Gosaba, with lower rainfall and higher salinity. Dacope and Gosaba were inundated a few years prior to our study, and the model calibration is pertinent to the recovery period. The calculated evapotranspiration from the polder (indicating crop growth) was dramatically reduced following inundation, and the calculated salt concentration in the soil water and shallow groundwater greatly increased. The model simulations showed that recovery depends on several factors, in particular how well the soil in the polder is drained and therefore how well salt is flushed out. Our simulations suggest that with sound maintenance of infrastructure and sound management, particularly of soil drainage, the polders and islands of the Ganges delta could recover fairly quickly from inundation events.
Keywords	coastal zone management ; drainage ; evapotranspiration ; groundwater ; infrastructure ; polders ; rain ; river deltas ; salinity ; salt concentration ; seawater ; soil water ; water management
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-0901
Publishing place	Elsevier Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	NAL-AP-2-clean
ISSN	0964-5691
DOI	10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105740
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Relative performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

Pour, Sahar Hadi / Shahid, Shamsuddin / Mainuddin, Mohammed

Theoretical and applied climatology. 2022 July, v. 149, no. 1-2

2022

Abstract: This study evaluated the skills of global climate models (GCMs) of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) in simulating observed rainfall climatology, seasonal variability, and probability distribution function (PDF) ... ...

Abstract	This study evaluated the skills of global climate models (GCMs) of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) in simulating observed rainfall climatology, seasonal variability, and probability distribution function (PDF) in Peninsular Malaysia. Monthly rainfall records of eighty stations for 1975 − 2005 were employed for this purpose. The Kling-Gupta efficiency was applied to estimate GCMs’ skill to reconstruct rainfall climatology and seasonal variability, while Perkins skill score to replicate PDF. The GCMs of individual CMIP were initially ranked based on the individual metric, and then a compromise rating matric was then employed for the grading. Finally, the highest-ranking CMIP6 GCMs were identified and employed for rainfall projections over Peninsular Malaysia for different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Results revealed higher bias in CMIP6 GCMs than CMIP5 GCMs but the better association in replicating rainfall climatology and seasonal variability. The EC-ERATH was the best performing model in CMIP5, followed by MPI-ESM-LR, FGOALS-g2, and CanESM2. In contrast, MPI-ESM-MR showed the highest skill among CMIP6 models, followed by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, and GFDL-ESM2M. The employment of the most skilled four GMIP6 GCMs in projecting rainfall in the peninsula revealed a non-linear rainfall change for SSPs—an increase in rainfall for SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 and a decrease for SSP2-45 and SSP3-70. Overall, rainfall was projected to increase in the northwest and central south by 10 − 20% and decrease in the northeast and far south by 1 to 30%.
Keywords	climate ; climatology ; probability distribution ; rain ; seasonal variation ; Malaysia
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-07
Size	p. 709-725.
Publishing place	Springer Vienna
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	1463177-5
ISSN	1434-4483 ; 0177-798X
ISSN (online)	1434-4483
ISSN	0177-798X
DOI	10.1007/s00704-022-04076-7
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Article: Rainfall-induced recharge-dynamics of heavily exploited aquifers – A case study in the North-West region of Bangladesh

Mojid, Mohammad Abdul / Aktar, Shamima / Mainuddin, Mohammed

Groundwater for sustainable development. 2021 Nov., v. 15

2021

Abstract: Declining groundwater level (GWL) has posed an immense threat to the groundwater-based irrigated agriculture in the North-West (NW) region of Bangladesh. This study determined time-lag after which GWL responds to rainfall, quantified threshold minimum ... ...

Abstract	Declining groundwater level (GWL) has posed an immense threat to the groundwater-based irrigated agriculture in the North-West (NW) region of Bangladesh. This study determined time-lag after which GWL responds to rainfall, quantified threshold minimum rainfall to initiate rising of GWL, identified locations and durations of recharge deficit and rejection, and quantified these from locally recorded rainfall and GWL data to understand local aquifers’ dynamics and water storage. These objectives were realized by interpreting weekly total rainfall and weekly GWL data of 137 monitoring wells by dividing the data sets into 1985–1994 (10 years), 1995–2004 (10 years) and 2005–2016 (12 years) time spans and the region into three sub-regions: High Barind, Level Barind and Other area. The average lag period varied from 2.1 to 2.9 weeks and threshold rainfall from 34 to 75 mm. Recharge deficit occurred in some years and rejection in the other years at all monitoring well sites; both quantities greatly varied spatio-temporarily, revealing non-uniform development potential of the aquifers. Recharge rejection significantly decreased from 1995 to 2004 to 2005–2016 period in all sub-regions. In spite of clear evidence of continuously declining GWL, recharge rejection was obtained in both the High and Level Barind in each time span. This indicates presence of dominant recharge process(es) other than from rainfalls, and necessity of curtailing groundwater extraction or enhancing of recharge for further development of the aquifers. In contrast, recharge rejection period of 4.7–5.6 weeks per year and 7.8–8.2 years in each time span in Other area with no evidence of permanent decline in GWL reveals scope for further development of the aquifers. The reported parameters of the recharge–depletion characteristics, when estimated, would guide updating groundwater extraction and management policy for the concerned aquifers.
Keywords	case studies ; decline ; groundwater ; groundwater extraction ; irrigated farming ; issues and policy ; rain ; sustainable development ; water storage ; water table ; Bangladesh
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-11
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ISSN	2352-801X
DOI	10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100665
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Article: Exploring strategies to control the cost of food security: Evidence from Bangladesh

Jalilov, Shokhrukh-Mirzo / Rahman, Wakilur / Palash, Salauddin / Jahan, Hasneen / Mainuddin, Mohammed / Ward, Frank A.

Agricultural systems. 2022 Feb., v. 196

2022

Abstract: A classical challenge in the search for principles and guidelines to protect food security affordably in the developing world comes from the well-known dilemma faced by farmers who incur economic losses from low prices brought on by excess production ... ...

Abstract	A classical challenge in the search for principles and guidelines to protect food security affordably in the developing world comes from the well-known dilemma faced by farmers who incur economic losses from low prices brought on by excess production combined with poorly developed policies to anticipate, adapt to, and manage production and price fluctuations. This challenge is elevated in the face of growing evidence of climate change.This work performs a series of policy experiments to discover an affordable set of measures to protect food grain security as well as assure profitability of high valued crops in Bangladesh.This work uses primary and secondary data from Bangladesh agriculture to develop an empirical mathematical programming economic optimization model to achieve each of four alternative food policy objectives.Results show total economic welfare achievable under each policy objectives: protecting baseline observed farm sector outcomes, minimum protection of food grain security, protection of farm income from producing high value crops, and unconstrained food welfare optimization. The application is to an important farming region of northwest Bangladesh. We find that policymakers can achieve both food grain security and farm income from high value crops at a minimum cost of economic welfare displaced.The use of empirical models that describe and predict farm economic optimization behavior can provide guidance in the search for affordable policies for protecting food grain security while protecting farm income in the developing world.
Keywords	climate ; farm income ; farms ; food policy ; food prices ; food security ; profitability ; Bangladesh
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-02
Publishing place	Elsevier Ltd
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	413255-5
ISSN	0308-521X
ISSN	0308-521X
DOI	10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103351
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Article ; Online: COVID-19 induced economic loss and ensuring food security for vulnerable groups: Policy implications from Bangladesh.

Mottaleb, Khondoker Abdul / Mainuddin, Mohammed / Sonobe, Tetsushi

PloS one

2020 Volume 15, Issue 10, Page(s) e0240709

Abstract: At present nearly half of the world's population is under some form of government restriction to curb the spread of COVID-19, an extremely contagious disease. In Bangladesh, in the wake of five deaths and 48 infections from COVID-19, between March 24 and ...

Abstract	At present nearly half of the world's population is under some form of government restriction to curb the spread of COVID-19, an extremely contagious disease. In Bangladesh, in the wake of five deaths and 48 infections from COVID-19, between March 24 and May 30, 2020, the government imposed a nationwide lockdown. While this lockdown restricted the spread of COVID-19, in the absence of effective support, it can generate severe food and nutrition insecurity for daily wage-based workers. Of the 61 million employed labor force in Bangladesh, nearly 35% of them are paid on a daily basis. This study examines the food security and welfare impacts of the COVID-19 induced lockdown on daily wage workers both in the farm and nonfarm sectors in Bangladesh. Using information from more than 50,000 respondents complied with the 2016-17 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) in Bangladesh, this study estimates daily wage rates as Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 272.2 in the farm sector and BDT 361.5 in the nonfarm sector. Using the estimated daily wage earnings, this study estimates that a one-day complete lockdown generates a US$64.2 million equivalent economic loss only considering the wage loss of the daily wage workers. After estimating the daily per capita food expenditure separately for farm and nonfarm households, this study estimates a minimum compensation package for the daily wage-based farm and nonfarm households around the US $ 1 per day per household to ensure minimum food security for the daily wage-based worker households.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/economics ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections/virology ; Family Characteristics ; Farms ; Female ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Male ; Pandemics/economics ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/economics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/virology ; Poverty ; Public Policy/economics ; Quarantine/economics ; Quarantine/methods ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Salaries and Fringe Benefits ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Unemployment ; Vulnerable Populations
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-10-16
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0240709
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Article ; Online: Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin.

Kang, Hyunwoo / Sridhar, Venkataramana / Mainuddin, Mohammed / Trung, Le Duc

Scientific reports

2021 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 9383

Abstract: The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) has experienced droughts in recent decades, causing detrimental economic losses and food security conundrums. This study quantified the impact of climate change on drought, and rainfed rice production in the LMB. The ... ...

Abstract	The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) has experienced droughts in recent decades, causing detrimental economic losses and food security conundrums. This study quantified the impact of climate change on drought, and rainfed rice production in the LMB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and AquaCrop models were used to evaluate long-term drought indices and rainfed rice yields under historical and future climate conditions (1954-2099) with four climate models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We found that rice yield might increase (24-43%) due to the elevated levels of atmospheric CO
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-30
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-021-88405-2
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Article ; Online: Impact of climate change and management strategies on water and salt balance of the polders and islands in the Ganges delta.

Mainuddin, Mohammed / Karim, Fazlul / Gaydon, Donald S / Kirby, John M

Scientific reports

2021 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 7041

Abstract: Enhancing crop production, particularly by growing a crop in the typically-fallow dry season is a key strategy for alleviating poverty in the Ganges delta region. We used a polder water and salt balance model to examine the impact of several crop ... ...

Abstract	Enhancing crop production, particularly by growing a crop in the typically-fallow dry season is a key strategy for alleviating poverty in the Ganges delta region. We used a polder water and salt balance model to examine the impact of several crop management, salt management and climate change scenarios on salinity and crop evapotranspiration at Dacope and Amtali in Bangladesh and Gosaba in India. A key (and unsurprising) finding is that salt management is very important, particularly at the two drier sites, Dacope and Gosaba. Good salt management lowers salinity in the shallow groundwater, soil and water storage ponds, and leads to more irrigation. Climate change is projected to alter rainfall, and this in turn leads to modelled increases or decreases in runoff from the polders, and thence affect salt concentrations in the soil and ponds and canals. Thus, the main impacts of climate change are through the indirect impacts on salt concentrations, rather than the direct impacts of the amount of water supplied as rainfall. Management practices to remove salt from polders are therefore likely to be effective in combatting the impacts of projected climate change particularly at Dacope and Gosaba.
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-03-29
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-021-86206-1
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Article ; Online: Groundwater balance and long-term storage trends in the regional Indo-Gangetic aquifer in northwest Bangladesh

Janardhanan, Sreekanth / Monirul Islam, Md / Islam, Md Tohidul / Peña-Arancibia, Jorge / Hodgson, Geoff / Karim, Fazlul / Mainuddin, Mohammed / Islam, Md Tarikul / Atiqur Rahman, Md / Kirby, John M.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 2023 Oct., v. 49 p.101500-

2023

Abstract: The study region is the northwest region of Bangladesh The study focuses on developing an improved understanding of groundwater balance and long-term groundwater storage trends in the districts of northwest Bangladesh. We used MODFLOW-2005 to construct ... ...

Abstract	The study region is the northwest region of Bangladesh The study focuses on developing an improved understanding of groundwater balance and long-term groundwater storage trends in the districts of northwest Bangladesh. We used MODFLOW-2005 to construct two groundwater models of northwest Bangladesh, which differed in the conceptual representation of groundwater recharge to investigate groundwater balance and storage trends. One approach was based on estimating gross recharge and the other on estimating net recharge by ignoring direct use of groundwater by vegetation. The two models were calibrated by fitting to observed groundwater levels, with a probabilistic method using PEST-IES, resulting in 500 realisations of comparable goodness of fit for each model. The two modelling approaches provided plausible range of groundwater storage decline in the northwest region with long-term average between − 1.1 mm/y and − 5.3 mm/y. In the southern parts of the region groundwater storage is declining with highest rates of − 12.5 mm/y, − 10.6 mm/y and − 8.9 mm/y respectively in Nawabganj, Naogaon and Rajshahi respectively. Groundwater use appears to be unsustainable in this area. The northern part receives greater rainfall, and groundwater storage is declining less. Furthermore, the recharge rates are less than the potential rates. In this part of the region, some further development of groundwater use may be sustainable.
Keywords	aquifers ; decline ; groundwater ; groundwater recharge ; hydrologic models ; rain ; storage time ; vegetation ; Bangladesh ; Groundwater modelling ; Sustainability ; Storage trend ; Uncertainty ; MODFLOW ; PEST
Language	English
Dates of publication	2023-10
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article ; Online
ZDB-ID	2814784-4
ISSN	2214-5818
ISSN	2214-5818
DOI	10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101500
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Article ; Online: Predicted changes in future precipitation and air temperature across Bangladesh using CMIP6 GCMs

Kāmarujjāmāna, Moḥ / Wahid, Shahriar / Shahid, Shamsuddin / Alam, Edris / Mainuddin, Mohammed / Islam, H. M. Touhidul / Cho, Jeapil / Rahman, Md. Mizanur / Chandra Biswas, Jatish / Thorp, Kelly R.

Heliyon. 2023 May 01, v. 9, no. 5 p.e16274-

2023

Abstract: Understanding spatiotemporal variability in precipitation and temperature and their future projections is critical for assessing environmental hazards and planning long-term mitigation. In this study, 18 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the most recent ... ...

Abstract	Understanding spatiotemporal variability in precipitation and temperature and their future projections is critical for assessing environmental hazards and planning long-term mitigation. In this study, 18 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were employed to project the mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation, maximum air temperature (Tmax), and minimum air temperature (Tmin) in Bangladesh. The GCM projections were bias-corrected using the Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) technique. Using the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) mean of the bias-corrected dataset, the expected changes for the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were evaluated for the near (2015-2044), mid (2045-2074), and far (2075-2100) futures in comparison to the historical period (1985-2014). In the far future, the anticipated average annual precipitation increased by 9.48%, 13.63%, 21.07%, and 30.90%, while the average Tmax (Tmin) rose by 1.09 (1.17), 1.60 (1.91), 2.12 (2.80), and 2.99 (3.69) °C for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The post-monsoon season was predicted to experience the most significant increase in precipitation (41.6%) in the far future for SSP5-8.5. In contrast, winter precipitation was predicted to decrease most (15.0%) in the mid-future for SSP3-7.0. Tmax (Tmin) was predicted to rise most in the winter and least in the monsoon for all peri
Keywords	air temperature ; atmospheric precipitation ; climate ; data collection ; models ; monsoon season ; winter ; Bangladesh ; Global climate models ; Multi-model ensemble ; Shared socioeconomic pathways ; Downscaling ; Projections
Language	English
Dates of publication	2023-0501
Publishing place	Elsevier BV
Document type	Article ; Online
Note	Resource is Open Access
ZDB-ID	2835763-2
ISSN	2405-8440
ISSN	2405-8440
DOI	10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16274
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