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Article ; Online: Effectiveness of spatially targeted interventions for control of HIV, tuberculosis, leprosy and malaria

Ted Cohen / Peter MacPherson / Elizabeth L Corbett / Marriott Nliwasa / McEwen Khundi

BMJ Open, Vol 11, Iss

a systematic review

2021 Volume 7

Abstract: Background As infectious diseases approach global elimination targets, spatial targeting is increasingly important to identify community hotspots of transmission and effectively target interventions. We aimed to synthesise relevant evidence to define ... ...

Abstract	Background As infectious diseases approach global elimination targets, spatial targeting is increasingly important to identify community hotspots of transmission and effectively target interventions. We aimed to synthesise relevant evidence to define best practice approaches and identify policy and research gaps.Objective To systematically appraise evidence for the effectiveness of spatially targeted community public health interventions for HIV, tuberculosis (TB), leprosy and malaria.Design Systematic review.Data sources We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews between 1 January 1993 and 22 March 2021.Study selection The studies had to include HIV or TB or leprosy or malaria and spatial hotspot definition, and community interventions.Data extraction and synthesis A data extraction tool was used. For each study, we summarised approaches to identifying hotpots, intervention design and effectiveness of the intervention.Results Ten studies, including one cluster randomised trial and nine with alternative designs (before–after, comparator area), satisfied our inclusion criteria. Spatially targeted interventions for HIV (one USA study), TB (three USA) and leprosy (two Brazil, one Federated States of Micronesia) each used household location and disease density to define hotspots followed by community-based screening. Malaria studies (one each from India, Indonesia and Kenya) used household location and disease density for hotspot identification followed by complex interventions typically combining community screening, larviciding of stagnant water bodies, indoor residual spraying and mass drug administration. Evidence of effect was mixed.Conclusions Studies investigating spatially targeted interventions were few in number, and mostly underpowered or otherwise limited methodologically, affecting interpretation of intervention impact. Applying advanced epidemiological methodologies supporting more robust hotspot identification and larger or more intensive ...
Keywords	Medicine ; R
Subject code	306
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-07-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMJ Publishing Group
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Interventions to reduce deaths in people living with HIV admitted to hospital in low- and middle-income countries

Rachael M Burke / Hussein H Twabi / Cheryl Johnston / Marriott Nliwasa / Ankur Gupta-Wright / Katherine Fielding / Nathan Ford / Peter MacPherson / Elizabeth L Corbett

PLOS Global Public Health, Vol 3, Iss 2, p e

A systematic review.

2023 Volume 0001557

Abstract: People living with HIV (PLHIV) admitted to hospital have a high risk of death. We systematically appraised evidence for interventions to reduce mortality among hospitalised PLHIV in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using a broad search strategy ... ...

Abstract	People living with HIV (PLHIV) admitted to hospital have a high risk of death. We systematically appraised evidence for interventions to reduce mortality among hospitalised PLHIV in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using a broad search strategy with terms for HIV, hospitals, and clinical trials, we searched for reports published between 1 Jan 2003 and 23 August 2021. Studies of interventions among adult HIV positive inpatients in LMICs were included if there was a comparator group and death was an outcome. We excluded studies restricted only to inpatients with a specific diagnosis (e.g. cryptococcal meningitis). Of 19,970 unique studies identified in search, ten were eligible for inclusion with 7,531 participants in total: nine randomised trials, and one before-after study. Three trials investigated systematic screening for tuberculosis; two showed survival benefit for urine TB screening vs. no urine screening, and one which compared Xpert MTB/RIF versus smear microscopy showed no difference in survival. One before-after study implemented 2007 WHO guidelines to improve management of smear negative tuberculosis in severely ill PLHIV, and showed survival benefit but with high risk of bias. Two trials evaluated complex interventions aimed at overcoming barriers to ART initiation in newly diagnosed PLHIV, one of which showed survival benefit and the other no difference. Two small trials evaluated early inpatient ART start, with no difference in survival. Two trials investigated protocol-driven fluid resuscitation for emergency-room attendees meeting case-definitions for sepsis, and showed increased mortality with use of a protocol for fluid administration. In conclusion, ten studies published since 2003 investigated interventions that aimed to reduce mortality in hospitalised adults with HIV, and weren't restricted to people with a defined disease diagnosis. Inpatient trials of diagnostics, therapeutics or a package of interventions to reduce mortality should be a research priority. Trial registration: ...
Keywords	Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	610
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Impact of active case-finding for tuberculosis on case-notifications in Blantyre, Malawi

Helena R A Feasey / McEwen Khundi / Rebecca Nzawa Soko / Christian Bottomley / Lingstone Chiume / Helen E D Burchett / Marriott Nliwasa / Hussein H Twabi / James A Mpunga / Peter MacPherson / Elizabeth L Corbett

PLOS Global Public Health, Vol 3, Iss 12, p e

A community-based cluster-randomised trial (SCALE).

2023 Volume 0002683

Abstract: Active case-finding (ACF) for tuberculosis can help find the "missing millions" with undiagnosed tuberculosis. In a cluster-randomised trial, we investigated impact of ACF on case-notifications in Blantyre, Malawi, where ACF has been intensively ... ...

Abstract	Active case-finding (ACF) for tuberculosis can help find the "missing millions" with undiagnosed tuberculosis. In a cluster-randomised trial, we investigated impact of ACF on case-notifications in Blantyre, Malawi, where ACF has been intensively implemented following 2014 estimates of ~1,000 per 100,000 adults with undiagnosed TB. Following a pre-intervention prevalence survey (May 2019 to March 2020), constrained randomisation allocated neighbourhoods to either door-to-door ACF (sputum microscopy for reported cough >2 weeks) or standard-of-care (SOC). Implementation was interrupted by COVID-19. Cluster-level bacteriologically-confirmed case-notification rate (CNR) ratio within 91 days of ACF was our redefined primary outcome; comparison between arms used Poisson regression with random effects. Secondary outcomes were 91-day CNR ratios comparing all tuberculosis registrations and all non-ACF registrations. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of CNRs in the SOC arm examined prevalence survey impact. (ISRCTN11400592). 72 clusters served by 10 study-supported tuberculosis registration centres were randomised to ACF (261,244 adults, 58,944 person-years follow-up) or SOC (256,713 adults, 52,805 person-years). Of 1,192 ACF participants, 13 (1.09%) were smear-positive. Within 91 days, 113 (42 bacteriologically-confirmed) and 108 (33 bacteriologically-confirmed) tuberculosis patients were identified as ACF or SOC cluster residents, respectively. There was no difference by arm, with adjusted 91-day CNR ratios 1.12 (95% CI: 0.61-2.07) for bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis; 0.93 (95% CI: 0.68-1.28) for all tuberculosis registrations; and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.63-1.16) for non-ACF (routinely) diagnosed. Of 7,905 ACF and 7,992 SOC pre-intervention survey participants, 12 (0.15%) and 17 (0.21%), respectively, had culture/Xpert-confirmed tuberculosis. ITS analysis showed no survey impact on SOC CNRs. Despite residual undiagnosed tuberculosis of 150 per 100,000 population, there was no increase in tuberculosis ...
Keywords	Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Prevalence of bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in urban Blantyre, Malawi 2019-20

Helena R A Feasey / McEwen Khundi / Rebecca Nzawa Soko / Emily Nightingale / Rachael M Burke / Marc Y R Henrion / Mphatso D Phiri / Helen E Burchett / Lingstone Chiume / Marriott Nliwasa / Hussein H Twabi / James A Mpunga / Peter MacPherson / Elizabeth L Corbett

PLOS Global Public Health, Vol 3, Iss 10, p e

Substantial decline compared to 2013-14 national survey.

2023 Volume 0001911

Abstract: Recent evidence shows rapidly changing tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in Southern and Eastern Africa, with need for subdistrict prevalence estimates to guide targeted interventions. We conducted a pulmonary TB prevalence survey to estimate current TB ... ...

Abstract	Recent evidence shows rapidly changing tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in Southern and Eastern Africa, with need for subdistrict prevalence estimates to guide targeted interventions. We conducted a pulmonary TB prevalence survey to estimate current TB burden in Blantyre city, Malawi. From May 2019 to March 2020, 115 households in middle/high-density residential Blantyre, were randomly-selected from each of 72 clusters. Consenting eligible participants (household residents ≥ 18 years) were interviewed, including for cough (any duration), and offered HIV testing and chest X-ray; participants with cough and/or abnormal X-ray provided two sputum samples for microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and mycobacterial culture. TB disease prevalence and risk factors for prevalent TB were calculated using complete-case analysis, multiple imputation, and inverse probability weighting. Of 20,899 eligible adults, 15,897 (76%) were interviewed, 13,490/15,897 (85%) had X-ray, and 1,120/1,394 (80%) sputum-eligible participants produced at least one specimen, giving 15,318 complete cases (5,895, 38% men). 29/15,318 had bacteriologically-confirmed TB (189 per 100,000 complete-case (cc) / 150 per 100,000 with inverse weighting (iw)). Men had higher burden (cc: 305 [95% CI:144-645] per 100,000) than women (cc: 117 [95% CI:65-211] per 100,000): cc adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.70 (1.26-5.78). Other significant risk factors for prevalent TB on complete-case analysis were working age (25-49 years) and previous TB treatment, but not HIV status. Multivariable analysis of imputed data was limited by small numbers, but previous TB and age group 25-49 years remained significantly associated with higher TB prevalence. Pulmonary TB prevalence for Blantyre was considerably lower than the 1,014 per 100,000 for urban Malawi in the 2013-14 national survey, at 150-189 per 100,000 adults, but some groups, notably men, remain disproportionately affected. TB case-finding is still needed for TB elimination in Blantyre, and similar urban centres, but should focus on ...
Keywords	Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	331
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Effect of patient-delivered household contact tracing and prevention for tuberculosis

Kruger Kaswaswa / Peter MacPherson / Moses Kumwenda / James Mpunga / Deus Thindwa / Marriott Nliwasa / Mphatso Mwapasa / Jon Odland / Tamiwe Tomoka / Geoffrey Chipungu / Mavuto Mukaka / Elizabeth L Corbett

PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss 9, p e

A household cluster-randomised trial in Malawi.

2022 Volume 0269219

Abstract: Background Household contact tracing provides TB screening and TB preventive therapy (TPT) to contacts at high risk of TB disease. However, it is resource intensive, inconvenient, and often poorly implemented. We investigated a novel model aiming to ... ...

Abstract	Background Household contact tracing provides TB screening and TB preventive therapy (TPT) to contacts at high risk of TB disease. However, it is resource intensive, inconvenient, and often poorly implemented. We investigated a novel model aiming to improve uptake. Methods Between May and December 2014, we randomised patient with TB who consented to participate in the trial to either standard of care (SOC) or intervention (PACTS) arms. Participants randomised to PACTS received one screening/triage tool (adapted from WHO integrated management of adolescent and adult illnesses [IMAI] guidelines) and sputum pots for each reported household contact. The tool guided participants through symptom screening; TPT (6-months of isoniazid) eligibility; and sputum collection for contacts. Patients randomised to SOC were managed in accordance with national guidelines, that is, they received verbal instruction on who to bring to clinics for investigation using national guidelines. Main outcome and measures The primary outcome was the proportion of adult contacts receiving treatment for TB within 3 months of randomisation. Secondary outcomes were the proportions of child contacts under age 5 years (U5Y) who were commenced on, and completed, TPT. Data were analyzed by logistic regression with random effects to adjust for household clustering. Results Two hundred and fourteen index TB participants were block-randomized from two sites (107 PACTS, reporting 418 contacts; and 107 SOC, reporting 420 contacts). Overall, 62.8% of index TB participants were HIV-positive and 52.1% were TB culture-positive. 250 otherwise eligible TB patients declined participation and 6 households (10 PACTS, 6 SOC) were lost to follow-up and were not included in the analysis. By three months, nine contacts (PACTS: 6, [1.4%]; SOC: 3, [0.7%]) had TB diagnosed, with no difference between groups (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.18, 95% CI: 0.60-7.95). Eligible PACTS contacts (37/96, 38.5%) were more likely to initiate TPT by 3-months compared to SOC contacts ...
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	150
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Design and protocol for a cluster randomised trial of enhanced diagnostics for tuberculosis screening among people living with HIV in hospital in Malawi (CASTLE study).

Rachael M Burke / Saulos Nyirenda / Hussein H Twabi / Marriott Nliwasa / Elizabeth Joekes / Naomi Walker / Rose Nyirenda / Ankur Gupta-Wright / Katherine Fielding / Peter MacPherson / Elizabeth L Corbett

PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss 1, p e

2022 Volume 0261877

Abstract: Background People living with HIV (PLHIV) have a high risk of death if hospitalised in low-income countries. Tuberculosis has long been the leading cause of admission and death, in part due to suboptimal diagnostics. Two promising new diagnostic tools ... ...

Abstract	Background People living with HIV (PLHIV) have a high risk of death if hospitalised in low-income countries. Tuberculosis has long been the leading cause of admission and death, in part due to suboptimal diagnostics. Two promising new diagnostic tools are digital chest Xray with computer-aided diagnosis (DCXR-CAD) and urine testing with Fujifilm SILVAMP LAM (FujiLAM). Neither test has been rigorously evaluated among inpatients. Test characteristics may be complementary, with FujiLAM especially sensitive for disseminated tuberculosis and DCXR-CAD especially sensitive for pulmonary tuberculosis, making combined interventions of interest. Design and methods An exploratory unblinded, single site, two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial, with day of admission as the unit of randomisation. A third, smaller, integrated cohort arm (4:4:1 random allocation) contributes to understanding case-mix, but not trial outcomes. Participants are adults living with HIV not currently on TB treatment. The intervention (DCXR-CAD plus urine FujiLAM plus usual care) is compared to usual care alone. The primary outcome is proportion of participants started on tuberculosis treatment by day 56, with secondary outcomes of mortality (time to event) measured to to 56 days from enrolment, proportions with undiagnosed tuberculosis at death or hospital discharge and comparing proportions with enrolment-day tuberculosis treatment initiation. Discussion Both DCXR-CAD and FujiLAM have potential clinical utility and may have complementary diagnostic performance. To our knowledge, this is the first randomised trial to evaluate these tests among hospitalised PLHIV.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: “Are we getting the biometric bioethics right?” – the use of biometrics within the healthcare system in Malawi

Mphatso Mwapasa / Kate Gooding / Moses Kumwenda / Marriott Nliwasa / Kruger Kaswaswa / Rodrick Sambakunsi / Michael Parker / Susan Bull / Nicola Desmond

Global Bioethics, Vol 31, Iss 1, Pp 67-

2020 Volume 80

Abstract: Biometrics is the science of establishing the identity of an individual based on their physical attributes. Ethical concerns surrounding the appropriate use of biometrics have been raised, especially in resource-poor settings. A qualitative investigation ...

Abstract	Biometrics is the science of establishing the identity of an individual based on their physical attributes. Ethical concerns surrounding the appropriate use of biometrics have been raised, especially in resource-poor settings. A qualitative investigation was conducted to explore biometrics clients (n = 14), implementers (n = 12) and policy makers as well as bioethicists (n = 4) perceptions of the ethical aspects of implementing biometrics within the healthcare system in Malawi. Informed use, privacy and confidentiality as well as perceptions of benefits and harms were identified as major issues in the application of biometrics. Implementation of biometrics within the healthcare system in Malawi poses a range of potential ethical issues and practical challenges that impact on equitable uptake. There is a need for more research to explore the benefits and harms of biometrics in practice. Improved community engagement and sensitization should be a required component of biometrics introduction in Malawi.
Keywords	biometrics ; bioethics ; healthcare system ; malawi ; Medical philosophy. Medical ethics ; R723-726 ; Social sciences (General) ; H1-99
Subject code	170
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Taylor & Francis Group
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios for adult bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis reveals hotspots of underdiagnosis in Blantyre, Malawi.

McEwen Khundi / James R Carpenter / Elizabeth L Corbett / Helena R A Feasey / Rebecca Nzawa Soko / Marriott Nliwasa / Hussein Twabi / Lingstone Chiume / Rachael M Burke / Katherine C Horton / Peter J Dodd / Ted Cohen / Peter MacPherson

PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss 5, p e

2022 Volume 0268749

Abstract: Local information is needed to guide targeted interventions for respiratory infections such as tuberculosis (TB). Case notification rates (CNRs) are readily available, but systematically underestimate true disease burden in neighbourhoods with high ... ...

Abstract	Local information is needed to guide targeted interventions for respiratory infections such as tuberculosis (TB). Case notification rates (CNRs) are readily available, but systematically underestimate true disease burden in neighbourhoods with high diagnostic access barriers. We explored a novel approach, adjusting CNRs for under-notification (P:N ratio) using neighbourhood-level predictors of TB prevalence-to-notification ratios. We analysed data from 1) a citywide routine TB surveillance system including geolocation, confirmatory mycobacteriology, and clinical and demographic characteristics of all registering TB patients in Blantyre, Malawi during 2015-19, and 2) an adult TB prevalence survey done in 2019. In the prevalence survey, consenting adults from randomly selected households in 72 neighbourhoods had symptom-plus-chest X-ray screening, confirmed with sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and culture. Bayesian multilevel models were used to estimate adjusted neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios, based on summarised posterior draws from fitted adult bacteriologically-confirmed TB CNRs and prevalence. From 2015-19, adult bacteriologically-confirmed CNRs were 131 (479/371,834), 134 (539/415,226), 114 (519/463,707), 56 (283/517,860) and 46 (258/578,377) per 100,000 adults per annum, and 2019 bacteriologically-confirmed prevalence was 215 (29/13,490) per 100,000 adults. Lower educational achievement by household head and neighbourhood distance to TB clinic was negatively associated with CNRs. The mean neighbourhood P:N ratio was 4.49 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.98-11.91), consistent with underdiagnosis of TB, and was most pronounced in informal peri-urban neighbourhoods. Here we have demonstrated a method for the identification of neighbourhoods with high levels of under-diagnosis of TB without the requirement for a prevalence survey; this is important since prevalence surveys are expensive and logistically challenging. If confirmed, this approach may support more efficient and effective ...
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	610
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios for adult bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis reveals hotspots of underdiagnosis in Blantyre, Malawi

McEwen Khundi / James R. Carpenter / Elizabeth L. Corbett / Helena R. A. Feasey / Rebecca Nzawa Soko / Marriott Nliwasa / Hussein Twabi / Lingstone Chiume / Rachael M. Burke / Katherine C. Horton / Peter J. Dodd / Ted Cohen / Peter MacPherson

PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss

2022 Volume 5

Abstract	Local information is needed to guide targeted interventions for respiratory infections such as tuberculosis (TB). Case notification rates (CNRs) are readily available, but systematically underestimate true disease burden in neighbourhoods with high diagnostic access barriers. We explored a novel approach, adjusting CNRs for under-notification (P:N ratio) using neighbourhood-level predictors of TB prevalence-to-notification ratios. We analysed data from 1) a citywide routine TB surveillance system including geolocation, confirmatory mycobacteriology, and clinical and demographic characteristics of all registering TB patients in Blantyre, Malawi during 2015–19, and 2) an adult TB prevalence survey done in 2019. In the prevalence survey, consenting adults from randomly selected households in 72 neighbourhoods had symptom-plus-chest X-ray screening, confirmed with sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and culture. Bayesian multilevel models were used to estimate adjusted neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios, based on summarised posterior draws from fitted adult bacteriologically-confirmed TB CNRs and prevalence. From 2015–19, adult bacteriologically-confirmed CNRs were 131 (479/371,834), 134 (539/415,226), 114 (519/463,707), 56 (283/517,860) and 46 (258/578,377) per 100,000 adults per annum, and 2019 bacteriologically-confirmed prevalence was 215 (29/13,490) per 100,000 adults. Lower educational achievement by household head and neighbourhood distance to TB clinic was negatively associated with CNRs. The mean neighbourhood P:N ratio was 4.49 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.98–11.91), consistent with underdiagnosis of TB, and was most pronounced in informal peri-urban neighbourhoods. Here we have demonstrated a method for the identification of neighbourhoods with high levels of under-diagnosis of TB without the requirement for a prevalence survey; this is important since prevalence surveys are expensive and logistically challenging. If confirmed, this approach may support more efficient and effective ...
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	610
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Durations of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and care-seeking phases of tuberculosis disease with a Bayesian analysis of prevalence survey and notification data

Chu-Chang Ku / Peter MacPherson / McEwen Khundi / Rebecca H. Nzawa Soko / Helena R. A. Feasey / Marriott Nliwasa / Katherine C. Horton / Elizabeth L. Corbett / Peter J. Dodd

BMC Medicine, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2021 Volume 13

Abstract: Abstract Background Ratios of bacteriologically positive tuberculosis (TB) prevalence to notification rates are used to characterise typical durations of TB disease. However, this ignores the clinical spectrum of tuberculosis disease and potentially long ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Ratios of bacteriologically positive tuberculosis (TB) prevalence to notification rates are used to characterise typical durations of TB disease. However, this ignores the clinical spectrum of tuberculosis disease and potentially long infectious periods with minimal or no symptoms prior to care-seeking. Methods We developed novel statistical models to estimate progression from initial bacteriological positivity including smear conversion, symptom onset and initial care-seeking. Case-detection ratios, TB incidence, durations, and other parameters were estimated by fitting the model to tuberculosis prevalence survey and notification data (one subnational and 11 national datasets) within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Results Analysis across 11 national datasets found asymptomatic tuberculosis durations in the range 4–8 months for African countries; three countries in Asia (Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Philippines) showed longer durations of > 1 year. For the six countries with relevant data, care-seeking typically began half-way between symptom onset and notification. For Kenya and Blantyre, Malawi, individual-level data were available. The sex-specific durations of asymptomatic bacteriologically-positive tuberculosis were 9.0 months (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.2–11.2) for men and 8.1 months (95% CrI: 6.2–10.3) for women in Kenya, and 4.9 months (95% CrI: 2.6–7.9) for men and 3.5 months (95% CrI: 1.3–6.2) for women in Blantyre. Age-stratified analysis of data for Kenya showed no strong age-dependence in durations. For Blantyre, HIV-stratified analysis estimated an asymptomatic duration of 1.3 months (95% CrI: 0.3–3.0) for HIV-positive people, shorter than the 8.5 months (95% CrI: 5.0–12.7) for HIV-negative people. Additionally, case-detection ratios were higher for people living with HIV than HIV-negative people (93% vs 71%). Conclusion Asymptomatic TB disease typically lasts around 6 months. We found no evidence of age-dependence, but much shorter durations among people living with HIV, and longer durations in some Asian settings. To eradicate TB transmission, greater gains may be achieved by proactively screening people without symptoms through active case finding interventions
Keywords	Tuberculosis ; Sub-clinical tuberculosis ; Bayesian statistics ; Care-seeking ; Epidemiology ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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