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  1. Article ; Online: How do women prepare for pregnancy in a low-income setting? Prevalence and associated factors.

    Loveness Mwase-Musicha / Michael G Chipeta / Judith Stephenson / Jennifer A Hall

    PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss 3, p e

    2022  Volume 0263877

    Abstract: Background Despite growing evidence of pregnancy preparation benefits, there is little knowledge on how women in developing countries prepare for pregnancy and factors influencing their preparedness for pregnancy. Here, we determine how women in Malawi ... ...

    Abstract Background Despite growing evidence of pregnancy preparation benefits, there is little knowledge on how women in developing countries prepare for pregnancy and factors influencing their preparedness for pregnancy. Here, we determine how women in Malawi prepare for pregnancy and factors associated with pregnancy preparation. Methods We used data from a previous cohort study comprising 4,244 pregnant mothers, recruited between March and December 2013 in Mchinji district, Malawi. Associations of pregnancy preparation with socio-demographic and obstetric factors were tested for using mixed effects ordinal regression, with the likelihood ratio and Wald's tests used for variable selection and independently testing the associations. Results Most mothers (63.9%) did not take any action to prepare for their pregnancies. For those who did (36.1%), eating more healthily (71.9%) and saving money (42.8%) were the most common forms of preparation. Mothers who were married (adjusted odds-ratio (AOR 7.77 (95% CI [5.31, 11.25]) or with no or fewer living children were more likely to prepare for pregnancy (AOR 4.71, 95% CI [2.89,7.61]. Mothers with a period of two to three years (AOR 2.51, 95% CI [1.47, 4.22]) or at least three years (AOR 3.67, 95%CI [2.18, 6.23]) between pregnancies were more likely to prepare for pregnancy than women with first pregnancy or shorter intervals. On the other hand, teenage and older (≥ 35 years old) mothers were less likely to prepare for pregnancy (AOR 0.61, 95%CI [0.47, 0.80]) and AOR 0.49 95%CI [0.33, 0.73], respectively). Conclusion While preconception care may not be formally available in Malawi, our study has revealed that over a third of mothers took some action to prepare for pregnancy before conception. Although this leaves around two thirds of women who did not make any form of pregnancy preparation, our findings form a basis for future research and development of a preconception care package that suits the Malawian context.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 150
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: Spatiotemporal analysis of the first wave of COVID-19 hospitalisations in Birmingham, UK

    Samuel I Watson / Richard J Lilford / Peter J Diggle / Michael G Chipeta

    BMJ Open, Vol 11, Iss

    2021  Volume 10

    Keywords Medicine ; R
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-10-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher BMJ Publishing Group
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article ; Online: Distinct climate influences on the risk of typhoid compared to invasive non-typhoid Salmonella disease in Blantyre, Malawi

    Deus Thindwa / Michael G. Chipeta / Marc Y. R. Henrion / Melita A. Gordon

    Scientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2019  Volume 11

    Abstract: Abstract Invasive Salmonella diseases, both typhoid and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS), are seasonal bloodstream infections causing important morbidity and mortality globally in Africa. The reservoirs and transmission of both are not fully ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Invasive Salmonella diseases, both typhoid and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS), are seasonal bloodstream infections causing important morbidity and mortality globally in Africa. The reservoirs and transmission of both are not fully understood. We hypothesised that differences in the time-lagged relationships of rainfall or temperature with typhoid and iNTS incidence might infer differences in epidemiology. We assessed the dynamics of invasive Salmonella incidence over a 16-year period of surveillance, quantifying incidence peaks, seasonal variations, and nonlinear effects of rainfall and temperature exposures on the relative risks of typhoid and iNTS, using monthly lags. An increased relative risk of iNTS incidence was short-lasting but immediate after the onset of the rains, whereas that of typhoid was long-lasting but with a two months delayed start, implying a possible difference in transmission. The relative-risk function of temperature for typhoid was bimodal, with higher risk at both lower (with a 1 month lag) and higher (with a ≥4 months lag) temperatures, possibly reflecting the known patterns of short and long cycle typhoid transmission. In contrast, the relative-risk of iNTS was only increased at lower temperatures, suggesting distinct transmission mechanisms. Environmental and sanitation control strategies may be different for iNTS compared to typhoid disease.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 610
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Analysis of Schistosomiasis haematobium infection prevalence and intensity in Chikhwawa, Malawi

    Michael G Chipeta / Bagrey Ngwira / Lawrence N Kazembe

    PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 3, p e

    an application of a two part model.

    2013  Volume 2131

    Abstract: BACKGROUND: Urinary Schistosomiasis infection, a common cause of morbidity especially among children in less developed countries, is measured by the number of eggs per urine. Typically a large proportion of individuals are non-egg excretors, leading to a ...

    Abstract BACKGROUND: Urinary Schistosomiasis infection, a common cause of morbidity especially among children in less developed countries, is measured by the number of eggs per urine. Typically a large proportion of individuals are non-egg excretors, leading to a large number of zeros. Control strategies require better understanding of its epidemiology, hence appropriate methods to model infection prevalence and intensity are crucial, particularly if such methods add value to targeted implementation of interventions. METHODS: We consider data that were collected in a cluster randomized study in 2004 in Chikhwawa district, Malawi, where eighteen (18) villages were selected and randomised to intervention and control arms. We developed a two-part model, with one part for analysis of infection prevalence and the other to model infection intensity. In both parts of the model we adjusted for age, sex, education level, treatment arm, occupation, and poly-parasitism. We also assessed for spatial correlation in the model residual using variogram analysis and mapped the spatial variation in risk. The model was fitted using maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The study had a total of 1642 participants with mean age of 32.4 (Standard deviation: 22.8), of which 55.4 % were female. Schistosomiasis prevalence was 14.2 %, with a large proportion of individuals (85.8 %) being non-egg excretors, hence zero-inflated data. Our findings showed that S. haematobium was highly localized even after adjusting for risk factors. Prevalence of infection was low in males as compared to females across all the age ranges. S. haematobium infection increased with presence of co-infection with other parasite infection. Infection intensity was highly associated with age; with highest intensity in school-aged children (6 to 15 years). Fishing and working in gardens along the Shire River were potential risk factors for S. haematobium infection intensity. Intervention reduced both infection intensity and prevalence in the intervention arm ...
    Keywords Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Language English
    Publishing date 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article ; Online: Hotspots and super-spreaders

    Luigi Sedda / Robert S McCann / Alinune N Kabaghe / Steven Gowelo / Monicah M Mburu / Tinashe A Tizifa / Michael G Chipeta / Henk van den Berg / Willem Takken / Michèle van Vugt / Kamija S Phiri / Russell Cain / Julie-Anne A Tangena / Christopher M Jones

    PLoS Pathogens, Vol 18, Iss 7, p e

    Modelling fine-scale malaria parasite transmission using mosquito flight behaviour.

    2022  Volume 1010622

    Abstract: Malaria hotspots have been the focus of public health managers for several years due to the potential elimination gains that can be obtained from targeting them. The identification of hotspots must be accompanied by the description of the overall network ...

    Abstract Malaria hotspots have been the focus of public health managers for several years due to the potential elimination gains that can be obtained from targeting them. The identification of hotspots must be accompanied by the description of the overall network of stable and unstable hotspots of malaria, especially in medium and low transmission settings where malaria elimination is targeted. Targeting hotspots with malaria control interventions has, so far, not produced expected benefits. In this work we have employed a mechanistic-stochastic algorithm to identify clusters of super-spreader houses and their related stable hotspots by accounting for mosquito flight capabilities and the spatial configuration of malaria infections at the house level. Our results show that the number of super-spreading houses and hotspots is dependent on the spatial configuration of the villages. In addition, super-spreaders are also associated to house characteristics such as livestock and family composition. We found that most of the transmission is associated with winds between 6pm and 10pm although later hours are also important. Mixed mosquito flight (downwind and upwind both with random components) were the most likely movements causing the spread of malaria in two out of the three study areas. Finally, our algorithm (named MALSWOTS) provided an estimate of the speed of malaria infection progression from house to house which was around 200-400 meters per day, a figure coherent with mark-release-recapture studies of Anopheles dispersion. Cross validation using an out-of-sample procedure showed accurate identification of hotspots. Our findings provide a significant contribution towards the identification and development of optimal tools for efficient and effective spatio-temporal targeted malaria interventions over potential hotspot areas.
    Keywords Immunologic diseases. Allergy ; RC581-607 ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-07-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article ; Online: The effect of community-driven larval source management and house improvement on malaria transmission when added to the standard malaria control strategies in Malawi

    Robert S. McCann / Alinune N. Kabaghe / Paula Moraga / Steven Gowelo / Monicah M. Mburu / Tinashe Tizifa / Michael G. Chipeta / William Nkhono / Aurelio Di Pasquale / Nicolas Maire / Lucinda Manda-Taylor / Themba Mzilahowa / Henk van den Berg / Peter J. Diggle / Dianne J. Terlouw / Willem Takken / Michèle van Vugt / Kamija S. Phiri

    Malaria Journal, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    a cluster-randomized controlled trial

    2021  Volume 16

    Abstract: Abstract Background Current standard interventions are not universally sufficient for malaria elimination. The effects of community-based house improvement (HI) and larval source management (LSM) as supplementary interventions to the Malawi National ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Background Current standard interventions are not universally sufficient for malaria elimination. The effects of community-based house improvement (HI) and larval source management (LSM) as supplementary interventions to the Malawi National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) interventions were assessed in the context of an intensive community engagement programme. Methods The study was a two-by-two factorial, cluster-randomized controlled trial in Malawi. Village clusters were randomly assigned to four arms: a control arm; HI; LSM; and HI + LSM. Malawi NMCP interventions and community engagement were used in all arms. Household-level, cross-sectional surveys were conducted on a rolling, 2-monthly basis to measure parasitological and entomological outcomes over 3 years, beginning with one baseline year. The primary outcome was the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Secondary outcomes included mosquito density, Plasmodium falciparum prevalence, and haemoglobin levels. All outcomes were assessed based on intention to treat, and comparisons between trial arms were conducted at both cluster and household level. Results Eighteen clusters derived from 53 villages with 4558 households and 20,013 people were randomly assigned to the four trial arms. The mean nightly EIR fell from 0.010 infectious bites per person (95% CI 0.006–0.015) in the baseline year to 0.001 (0.000, 0.003) in the last year of the trial. Over the full trial period, the EIR did not differ between the four trial arms (p = 0.33). Similar results were observed for the other outcomes: mosquito density and P. falciparum prevalence decreased over 3 years of sampling, while haemoglobin levels increased; and there were minimal differences between the trial arms during the trial period. Conclusions In the context of high insecticide-treated bed net use, neither community-based HI, LSM, nor HI + LSM contributed to further reductions in malaria transmission or prevalence beyond the reductions observed over two years across all four trial arms. This was ...
    Keywords Malaria ; Larval source management ; House improvement ; Community engagement ; Cluster randomised trial ; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216
    Subject code 630
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-05-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher BMC
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  7. Article ; Online: Identifying Plasmodium falciparum transmission patterns through parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate

    Benjamin Amoah / Robert S McCann / Alinune N Kabaghe / Monicah Mburu / Michael G Chipeta / Paula Moraga / Steven Gowelo / Tinashe Tizifa / Henk van den Berg / Themba Mzilahowa / Willem Takken / Michele van Vugt / Kamija S Phiri / Peter J Diggle / Dianne J Terlouw / Emanuele Giorgi

    eLife, Vol

    2021  Volume 10

    Abstract: Background: Monitoring malaria transmission is a critical component of efforts to achieve targets for elimination and eradication. Two commonly monitored metrics of transmission intensity are parasite prevalence (PR) and the entomological inoculation ... ...

    Abstract Background: Monitoring malaria transmission is a critical component of efforts to achieve targets for elimination and eradication. Two commonly monitored metrics of transmission intensity are parasite prevalence (PR) and the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Comparing the spatial and temporal variations in the PR and EIR of a given geographical region and modelling the relationship between the two metrics may provide a fuller picture of the malaria epidemiology of the region to inform control activities. Methods: Using geostatistical methods, we compare the spatial and temporal patterns of Plasmodium falciparum EIR and PR using data collected over 38 months in a rural area of Malawi. We then quantify the relationship between EIR and PR by using empirical and mechanistic statistical models. Results: Hotspots identified through the EIR and PR partly overlapped during high transmission seasons but not during low transmission seasons. The estimated relationship showed a 1-month delayed effect of EIR on PR such that at lower levels of EIR, increases in EIR are associated with rapid rise in PR, whereas at higher levels of EIR, changes in EIR do not translate into notable changes in PR. Conclusions: Our study emphasises the need for integrated malaria control strategies that combine vector and human host managements monitored by both entomological and parasitaemia indices. Funding: This work was supported by Stichting Dioraphte grant number 13050800.
    Keywords Plasmodium falciparum ; entomological inoculation rate ; parasite prevalence ; model-based geostatistics ; malaria ; disease mapping ; Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-10-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article ; Online: Adaptive geostatistical sampling enables efficient identification of malaria hotspots in repeated cross-sectional surveys in rural Malawi.

    Alinune N Kabaghe / Michael G Chipeta / Robert S McCann / Kamija S Phiri / Michèle van Vugt / Willem Takken / Peter Diggle / Anja D Terlouw

    PLoS ONE, Vol 12, Iss 2, p e

    2017  Volume 0172266

    Abstract: INTRODUCTION:In the context of malaria elimination, interventions will need to target high burden areas to further reduce transmission. Current tools to monitor and report disease burden lack the capacity to continuously detect fine-scale spatial and ... ...

    Abstract INTRODUCTION:In the context of malaria elimination, interventions will need to target high burden areas to further reduce transmission. Current tools to monitor and report disease burden lack the capacity to continuously detect fine-scale spatial and temporal variations of disease distribution exhibited by malaria. These tools use random sampling techniques that are inefficient for capturing underlying heterogeneity while health facility data in resource-limited settings are inaccurate. Continuous community surveys of malaria burden provide real-time results of local spatio-temporal variation. Adaptive geostatistical design (AGD) improves prediction of outcome of interest compared to current random sampling techniques. We present findings of continuous malaria prevalence surveys using an adaptive sampling design. METHODS:We conducted repeated cross sectional surveys guided by an adaptive sampling design to monitor the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia and anaemia in children below five years old in the communities living around Majete Wildlife Reserve in Chikwawa district, Southern Malawi. AGD sampling uses previously collected data to sample new locations of high prediction variance or, where prediction exceeds a set threshold. We fitted a geostatistical model to predict malaria prevalence in the area. FINDINGS:We conducted five rounds of sampling, and tested 876 children aged 6-59 months from 1377 households over a 12-month period. Malaria prevalence prediction maps showed spatial heterogeneity and presence of hotspots-where predicted malaria prevalence was above 30%; predictors of malaria included age, socio-economic status and ownership of insecticide-treated mosquito nets. CONCLUSIONS:Continuous malaria prevalence surveys using adaptive sampling increased malaria prevalence prediction accuracy. Results from the surveys were readily available after data collection. The tool can assist local managers to target malaria control interventions in areas with the greatest health impact and is ready for assessment in other diseases.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 310
    Language English
    Publishing date 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Article ; Online: Global antibiotic consumption and usage in humans, 2000–18

    Annie J Browne, DPhil / Michael G Chipeta, PhD / Georgina Haines-Woodhouse, MSc / Emmanuelle P A Kumaran, MPH / Bahar H Kashef Hamadani, MPH / Sabra Zaraa, MPH / Nathaniel J Henry, BSc / Aniruddha Deshpande, MPH / Robert C Reiner, Jr, PhD / Nicholas P J Day, ProfFMedSci / Alan D Lopez, ProfPhD / Susanna Dunachie, ProfPhD / Catrin E Moore, DPhil / Andy Stergachis, ProfPhD / Simon I Hay, ProfDSc / Christiane Dolecek, PhD

    The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol 5, Iss 12, Pp e893-e

    a spatial modelling study

    2021  Volume 904

    Abstract: Summary: Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious threat to global public health. WHO emphasises the need for countries to monitor antibiotic consumption to combat AMR. Many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack surveillance ... ...

    Abstract Summary: Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious threat to global public health. WHO emphasises the need for countries to monitor antibiotic consumption to combat AMR. Many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack surveillance capacity; we aimed to use multiple data sources and statistical models to estimate global antibiotic consumption. Methods: In this spatial modelling study, we used individual-level data from household surveys to inform a Bayesian geostatistical model of antibiotic usage in children (aged <5 years) with lower respiratory tract infections in LMICs. Antibiotic consumption data were obtained from multiple sources, including IQVIA, WHO, and the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network (ESAC-Net). The estimates of the antibiotic usage model were used alongside sociodemographic and health covariates to inform a model of total antibiotic consumption in LMICs. This was combined with a single model of antibiotic consumption in high-income countries to produce estimates of antibiotic consumption covering 204 countries and 19 years. Findings: We analysed 209 surveys done between 2000 and 2018, covering 284 045 children with lower respiratory tract infections. We identified large national and subnational variations of antibiotic usage in LMICs, with the lowest levels estimated in sub-Saharan Africa and the highest in eastern Europe and central Asia. We estimated a global antibiotic consumption rate of 14·3 (95% uncertainty interval 13·2–15·6) defined daily doses (DDD) per 1000 population per day in 2018 (40·2 [37·2–43·7] billion DDD), an increase of 46% from 9·8 (9·2–10·5) DDD per 1000 per day in 2000. We identified large spatial disparities, with antibiotic consumption rates varying from 5·0 (4·8–5·3) DDD per 1000 per day in the Philippines to 45·9 DDD per 1000 per day in Greece in 2018. Additionally, we present trends in consumption of different classes of antibiotics for selected Global Burden of Disease study regions using the IQVIA, WHO, and ESAC-net input data. We identified large increases in the consumption of fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins in North Africa and Middle East, and south Asia. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates antibiotic usage and consumption data and uses geostatistical modelling techniques to estimate antibiotic consumption for 204 countries from 2000 to 2018. Our analysis identifies both high rates of antibiotic consumption and a lack of access to antibiotics, providing a benchmark for future interventions. Funding: Fleming Fund, UK Department of Health and Social Care; Wellcome Trust; and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    Keywords Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Subject code 310
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Elsevier
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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