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Article: Coastal wetland adaptation to sea level rise: Quantifying potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze

Borchert, Sinéad M / Kereen T. Griffith / Michael J. Osland / Nicholas M. Enwright

Journal of applied ecology. 2018 Nov., v. 55, no. 6

2018

Abstract: Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landwards in response to rising seas. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate migration. Low‐lying urban areas can constrain ... ...

Abstract	Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landwards in response to rising seas. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate migration. Low‐lying urban areas can constrain migration and lead to wetland loss (i.e. coastal squeeze), especially where existing wetlands cannot keep pace with rising seas via vertical adjustments. In many estuaries, there is a pressing need to identify landward migration corridors and better quantify the potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze. We quantified and compared the area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and the area where urban development is expected to prevent migration for 39 estuaries along the wetland‐rich USA Gulf of Mexico coast. We did so under three sea level rise scenarios (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m by 2100). Within the region, the potential for wetland migration is highest within certain estuaries in Louisiana and southern Florida (e.g. Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays, Mermentau River, Barataria Bay, and the North and South Ten Thousand Islands estuaries). The potential for coastal squeeze is highest in estuaries containing major metropolitan areas that extend into low‐lying lands. The Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay, and Crystal‐Pithlachascotee estuaries (Florida) have the highest amounts of urban land expected to constrain wetland migration. Urban barriers to migration are also high in the Galveston Bay (Texas) and Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays (Louisiana) estuaries. Synthesis and applications. Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that benefit human health and well‐being, including shoreline protection and fish and wildlife habitat. As the rate of sea level rise accelerates in response to climate change, coastal wetland resources could be lost in areas that lack space for landward migration. Migration corridors are particularly important in highly urbanized estuaries where, due to low‐lying coastal development, there is not space for wetlands to move and adapt to sea level rise. Future‐focused landscape conservation plans that incorporate the protection of wetland migration corridors can increase the adaptive capacity of these valuable ecosystems and simultaneously decrease the vulnerability of coastal human communities to the harmful effects of rising seas.
Keywords	climate change ; coasts ; ecosystem services ; ecosystems ; estuaries ; fish ; human communities ; human health ; islands ; landscape management ; metropolitan areas ; rivers ; sea level ; shorelines ; topography ; urbanization ; wetlands ; wildlife habitats ; Florida ; Gulf of Mexico ; Louisiana ; Texas
Language	English
Dates of publication	2018-11
Size	p. 2876-2887.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	410405-5
ISSN	1365-2664 ; 0021-8901
ISSN (online)	1365-2664
ISSN	0021-8901
DOI	10.1111/1365-2664.13169
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Modeling Barrier Island Habitats Using Landscape Position Information

Nicholas M. Enwright / Lei Wang / Hongqing Wang / Michael J. Osland / Laura C. Feher / Sinéad M. Borchert / Richard H. Day

Remote Sensing, Vol 11, Iss 8, p

2019 Volume 976

Abstract: Barrier islands are dynamic environments because of their position along the marine–estuarine interface. Geomorphology influences habitat distribution on barrier islands by regulating exposure to harsh abiotic conditions. Researchers have identified ... ...

Abstract	Barrier islands are dynamic environments because of their position along the marine–estuarine interface. Geomorphology influences habitat distribution on barrier islands by regulating exposure to harsh abiotic conditions. Researchers have identified linkages between habitat and landscape position, such as elevation and distance from shore, yet these linkages have not been fully leveraged to develop predictive models. Our aim was to evaluate the performance of commonly used machine learning algorithms, including K-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, and random forest, for predicting barrier island habitats using landscape position for Dauphin Island, Alabama, USA. Landscape position predictors were extracted from topobathymetric data. Models were developed for three tidal zones: subtidal, intertidal, and supratidal/upland. We used a contemporary habitat map to identify landscape position linkages for habitats, such as beach, dune, woody vegetation, and marsh. Deterministic accuracy, fuzzy accuracy, and hindcasting were used for validation. The random forest algorithm performed best for intertidal and supratidal/upland habitats, while the K-nearest neighbor algorithm performed best for subtidal habitats. A posteriori application of expert rules based on theoretical understanding of barrier island habitats enhanced model results. For the contemporary model, deterministic overall accuracy was nearly 70%, and fuzzy overall accuracy was over 80%. For the hindcast model, deterministic overall accuracy was nearly 80%, and fuzzy overall accuracy was over 90%. We found machine learning algorithms were well-suited for predicting barrier island habitats using landscape position. Our model framework could be coupled with hydrodynamic geomorphologic models for forecasting habitats with accelerated sea-level rise, simulated storms, and restoration actions.
Keywords	habitat modeling ; machine learning ; geocomputation ; dune ; wetlands ; marsh ; lidar ; uncertainty ; restoration ; monitoring ; Science ; Q
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-04-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with seaâlevel rise

Enwright, Nicholas M / Kereen T Griffith / Michael J Osland

Frontiers in ecology and the environment. 2016 Aug., v. 14, no. 6

2016

Abstract: In the 21st century, accelerated seaâlevel rise and continued coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. Historically, many coastal ecosystems have responded to seaâlevel fluctuations via horizontal and ... ...

Abstract	In the 21st century, accelerated seaâlevel rise and continued coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. Historically, many coastal ecosystems have responded to seaâlevel fluctuations via horizontal and vertical movement on the landscape. However, anthropogenic activities, including urbanization and the construction of floodâprevention infrastructure, can produce barriers that impede ecosystem migration. Here we show where tidal saline wetlands have the potential to migrate landward along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most seaâlevel rise sensitive and wetlandârich regions of the world. Our findings can be used to identify migration corridors and develop seaâlevel rise adaptation strategies to help ensure the continued availability of wetlandâassociated ecosystem goods and services.
Keywords	anthropogenic activities ; coasts ; ecosystem services ; ecosystems ; flood control ; infrastructure ; landscapes ; sea level ; urbanization ; wetlands ; Gulf of Mexico
Language	English
Dates of publication	2016-08
Size	p. 307-316.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	2110853-5
ISSN	1540-9309 ; 1540-9295
ISSN (online)	1540-9309
ISSN	1540-9295
DOI	10.1002/fee.1282
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: The Impact of Lidar Elevation Uncertainty on Mapping Intertidal Habitats on Barrier Islands

Nicholas M. Enwright / Lei Wang / Sinéad M. Borchert / Richard H. Day / Laura C. Feher / Michael J. Osland

Remote Sensing, Vol 10, Iss 1, p

2017 Volume 5

Abstract: While airborne lidar data have revolutionized the spatial resolution that elevations can be realized, data limitations are often magnified in coastal settings. Researchers have found that airborne lidar can have a vertical error as high as 60 cm in ... ...

Abstract	While airborne lidar data have revolutionized the spatial resolution that elevations can be realized, data limitations are often magnified in coastal settings. Researchers have found that airborne lidar can have a vertical error as high as 60 cm in densely vegetated intertidal areas. The uncertainty of digital elevation models is often left unaddressed; however, in low-relief environments, such as barrier islands, centimeter differences in elevation can affect exposure to physically demanding abiotic conditions, which greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. In this study, we used airborne lidar elevation data, in situ elevation observations, lidar metadata, and tide gauge information to delineate low-lying lands and the intertidal wetlands on Dauphin Island, a barrier island along the coast of Alabama, USA. We compared three different elevation error treatments, which included leaving error untreated and treatments that used Monte Carlo simulations to incorporate elevation vertical uncertainty using general information from lidar metadata and site-specific Real-Time Kinematic Global Position System data, respectively. To aid researchers in instances where limited information is available for error propagation, we conducted a sensitivity test to assess the effect of minor changes to error and bias. Treatment of error with site-specific observations produced the fewest omission errors, although the treatment using the lidar metadata had the most well-balanced results. The percent coverage of intertidal wetlands was increased by up to 80% when treating the vertical error of the digital elevation models. Based on the results from the sensitivity analysis, it could be reasonable to use error and positive bias values from literature for similar environments, conditions, and lidar acquisition characteristics in the event that collection of site-specific data is not feasible and information in the lidar metadata is insufficient. The methodology presented in this study should increase efficiency and enhance ...
Keywords	lidar ; elevation ; uncertainty ; Monte Carlo ; barrier islands ; intertidal wetlands ; coastal environments ; habitat mapping ; Science ; Q
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Mangrove species' responses to winter air temperature extremes in China

Luzhen Chen / Wenqing Wang / Qingshun Q. Li / Yihui Zhang / Shengchang Yang / Michael J. Osland / Jinliang Huang / Congjiao Peng

Ecosphere, Vol 8, Iss 6, Pp n/a-n/a (2017)

2017

Abstract: Abstract The global distribution and diversity of mangrove forests is greatly influenced by the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes. However, our understanding of how different mangrove species respond to winter temperature ... ...

Abstract	Abstract The global distribution and diversity of mangrove forests is greatly influenced by the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes. However, our understanding of how different mangrove species respond to winter temperature extremes has been lacking because extreme freezing and chilling events are, by definition, relatively uncommon and also difficult to replicate experimentally. In this study, we investigated species‐specific variation in mangrove responses to winter temperature extremes in China. In 10 sites that span a latitudinal gradient, we quantified species‐specific damage and recovery following a chilling event, for mangrove species within and outside of their natural range (i.e., native and non‐native species, respectively). To characterize plant stress, we measured tree defoliation and chlorophyll fluorescence approximately one month following the chilling event. To quantify recovery, we measured chlorophyll fluorescence approximately nine months after the chilling event. Our results show high variation in the geographic‐ and species‐specific responses of mangroves to winter temperature extremes. While many species were sensitive to the chilling temperatures (e.g., Bruguiera sexangula and species in the Sonneratia and Rhizophora genera), the temperatures during this event were not cold enough to affect certain species (e.g., Kandelia obovata, Aegiceras corniculatum, Avicennia marina, and Bruguiera gymnorrhiza). As expected, non‐native species were less tolerant of winter temperature extremes than native species. Interestingly, tidal inundation modulated the effects of chilling. In comparison with other temperature‐controlled mangrove range limits across the world, the mangrove range limit in China is unique due to the combination of the following three factors: (1) Mangrove species diversity is comparatively high; (2) winter air temperature extremes, rather than means, are particularly intense and play an important ecological role; and (3) due to afforestation and restoration efforts, several species of non‐native mangroves have been introduced beyond their natural range limits. Hence, from a global perspective, mangroves in China provide valuable opportunities to advance understanding of the effects of freezing and chilling temperatures on mangroves. Within the context of climate change, our findings provide a foundation for better understanding and preparing for mangrove species‐specific responses to future changes in the duration and intensity of winter temperature extremes.
Keywords	chilling temperature ; China ; climate change ; climate extreme ; coastal wetland ; defoliation ; Ecology ; QH540-549.5
Subject code	590
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-06-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Wiley
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans)

Michael J Osland / Richard H Day / Jack C Larriviere / Andrew S From

PLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 6, p e

equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

2014 Volume 99604

Abstract: Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia ... ...

Abstract	Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Sensitivity of mangrove range limits to climate variability

Cavanaugh, Kyle C / André S. Rovai / Gustavo Hinojosa‐Arango / John D. Parker / Juan M. López‐Vivas / Michael J. Osland / Rémi Bardou

Global ecology and biogeography. 2018 Aug., v. 27, no. 8

2018

Abstract: AIM: Correlative distribution models have been used to identify potential climatic controls of mangrove range limits, but there is still uncertainty about the relative importance of these factors across different regions. To provide insights into the ... ...

Abstract	AIM: Correlative distribution models have been used to identify potential climatic controls of mangrove range limits, but there is still uncertainty about the relative importance of these factors across different regions. To provide insights into the strength of climatic control of different mangrove range limits, we tested whether temporal variability in mangrove abundance increases near range limits and whether this variability is correlated with climatic factors thought to control large‐scale mangrove distributions. LOCATION: North and South America. TIME PERIOD: 1984–2011. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Avicennia germinans, Avicennia schuaeriana, Rhizophora mangle, Laguncularia racemosa. METHODS: We characterized temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) at mangrove range limits using Landsat satellite imagery collected between 1984–2011. We characterized greening trends at each range limit, examined variability in EVI along latitudinal gradients near each range limit, and assessed correlations between changes in EVI and temperature and precipitation. RESULTS: Spatial variability in mean EVI was generally correlated with temperature and precipitation, but the relationships were region specific. Greening trends were most pronounced at range limits in eastern North America. In these regions variability in EVI increased toward the range limit and was sensitive to climatic factors. In contrast, EVI at range limits on the Pacific coast of North America and both coasts of South America was relatively stable and less sensitive to climatic variability. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that range limits in eastern North America are strongly controlled by climate factors. Mangrove expansion in response to future warming is expected to be rapid in regions that are highly sensitive to climate variability (e.g. eastern North America), but the response in other range limits (e.g. South America) is likely to be more complex and modulated by additional factors such as dispersal limitation, habitat constraints, and/or changing climatic means rather than just extremes.
Keywords	Avicennia germinans ; climatic factors ; coasts ; habitats ; Laguncularia racemosa ; Landsat ; models ; remote sensing ; Rhizophora mangle ; temperature ; temporal variation ; uncertainty ; vegetation index ; North America ; South America
Language	English
Dates of publication	2018-08
Size	p. 925-935.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	2021283-5
ISSN	1466-8238 ; 1466-822X ; 0960-7447
ISSN (online)	1466-8238
ISSN	1466-822X ; 0960-7447
DOI	10.1111/geb.12751
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Salt marshâmangrove ecotones: using structural gradients to investigate the effects of woody plant encroachment on plantâsoil interactions and ecosystem carbon pools

Yando, Erik S / Michael J. Osland / Jonathan M. Willis / Richard H. Day / Ken W. Krauss / Mark W. Hester

journal of ecology. 2016 July, v. 104, no. 4

2016

Abstract: Changing winter climate extremes are expected to result in the poleward migration of mangrove forests at the expense of salt marshes. Although mangroves and marshes are both highly valued ecosystems, the ecological implications of mangrove expansion have ...

Abstract	Changing winter climate extremes are expected to result in the poleward migration of mangrove forests at the expense of salt marshes. Although mangroves and marshes are both highly valued ecosystems, the ecological implications of mangrove expansion have not been fully investigated. Here, we examined the effects of mangrove expansion on belowâground properties related to peat development and carbon storage. We investigated plantâsoil interactions in marshes and across mangrove forest structural gradients in three locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA). We compared our results to those from terrestrial grasslands where the effects of woody plant encroachment are often influenced by rainfall and plant traits. Abiotic conditions at our study locations differed, particularly in terms of physicochemical properties related to precipitation. Marsh species composition, marsh aboveâground biomass, and mangrove forest structural complexity also varied across these locations. Marshes in the driest location (Central Texas) had higher salinities and were dominated by low biomass succulent plants and lower soil carbon pools. Marshes in the wetter, less saline locations (Louisiana and North Florida) contained high biomass grasses and higher soil carbon pools. At all locations, aboveâground biomass and aboveâground carbon pools were higher in mangroves than marshes; however, belowâground soil carbon pools were only higher in mangroves than marshes in the driest location. In the wetter locations, the linkages between mangrove forest structure and soil properties were minimal or not significant. However, in the driest location, there was a significant increase in soil properties related to peat development and carbon storage with increased mangrove forest structural development. Synthesis: Our results indicate that the ecological implications of woody plant encroachment in tidal saline wetlands are dependent upon precipitation controls of plantâsoil interactions. Although the aboveâground effects of mangrove expansion are consistently large, belowâground influences of mangrove expansion appear to be greatest along lowârainfall coasts where salinities are high and marshes being replaced are carbon poor and dominated by succulent plants. Collectively, these findings complement those from terrestrial ecosystems and reinforce the importance of considering rainfall and plantâsoil interactions within predictions of the ecological effects of woody plant encroachment.
Keywords	aboveground biomass ; carbon ; carbon sequestration ; carbon sinks ; climate ; coasts ; complement ; ecotones ; grasses ; grasslands ; mangrove forests ; peat ; prediction ; rain ; salinity ; salt marshes ; soil structure ; soil-plant interactions ; species diversity ; terrestrial ecosystems ; woody plants ; Florida ; Gulf of Mexico ; Louisiana ; Texas
Language	English
Dates of publication	2016-07
Size	p. 1020-1031.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	3023-5
ISSN	0022-0477
ISSN	0022-0477
DOI	10.1111/1365-2745.12571
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Linear and nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands

Feher, Laura C / Camille L. Stagg / Christopher A. Gabler / James B. Grace / Ken W. Krauss / Kereen T. Griffith / Kerrylee Rogers / Michael J. Osland / Nicholas M. Enwright / Rebecca J. Howard / Richard H. Day

Ecosphere. 2017 Oct., v. 8, no. 10

2017

Abstract: Climate greatly influences the structure and functioning of tidal saline wetland ecosystems. However, there is a need to better quantify the effects of climatic drivers on ecosystem properties, particularly near climateâsensitive ecological transition ... ...

Abstract	Climate greatly influences the structure and functioning of tidal saline wetland ecosystems. However, there is a need to better quantify the effects of climatic drivers on ecosystem properties, particularly near climateâsensitive ecological transition zones. Here, we used climateâ and literatureâderived ecological data from tidal saline wetlands to test hypotheses regarding the influence of climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and precipitation regimes) on the following six ecosystem properties: canopy height, biomass, productivity, decomposition, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation. Our analyses quantify and elucidate linear and nonlinear effects of climatic drivers. We quantified positive linear relationships between temperature and aboveâground productivity and strong positive nonlinear (sigmoidal) relationships between (1) temperature and aboveâground biomass and canopy height and (2) precipitation and canopy height. Near temperatureâcontrolled mangrove range limits, small changes in temperature are expected to trigger comparatively large changes in biomass and canopy height, as mangrove forests grow, expand, and, in some cases, replace salt marshes. However, within these same transition zones, temperatureâinduced changes in productivity are expected to be comparatively small. Interestingly, despite the significant aboveâground height, biomass, and productivity relationships across the tropicalâtemperate mangroveâmarsh transition zone, the relationships between temperature and soil carbon density or soil carbon accumulation were not significant. Our literature review identifies several ecosystem properties and many regions of the world for which there are insufficient data to fully evaluate the influence of climatic drivers, and the identified data gaps can be used by scientists to guide future research. Our analyses indicate that near precipitationâcontrolled transition zones, small changes in precipitation are expected to trigger comparatively large changes in canopy height. However, there are scant data to evaluate the influence of precipitation on other ecosystem properties. There is a need for more decomposition data across climatic gradients, and to advance understanding of the influence of changes in precipitation and freshwater availability, additional ecological data are needed from tidal saline wetlands in arid climates. Collectively, our results can help scientists and managers better anticipate the linear and nonlinear ecological consequences of climate change for coastal wetlands.
Keywords	aboveground biomass ; canopy ; carbon ; climate change ; climatic factors ; ecosystems ; environmental impact ; freshwater ; mangrove forests ; primary productivity ; salt marshes ; scientists ; soil ; temperature
Language	English
Dates of publication	2017-10
Size	p. .
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	2572257-8
ISSN	2150-8925
ISSN	2150-8925
DOI	10.1002/ecs2.1956
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

Ken W. Krauss / Nicole Cormier / Michael J. Osland / Matthew L. Kirwan / Camille L. Stagg / Janet A. Nestlerode / Marc J. Russell / Andrew S. From / Amanda C. Spivak / Darrin D. Dantin / James E. Harvey / Alejandro E. Almario

Scientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2017 Volume 11

Abstract: Abstract Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-04-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nature Portfolio
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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