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Book ; Online: Fair votes in practice

Mollison, Denis

2023

Abstract: Criteria for a good voting system have been given particularly careful scrutiny in recent years, with general agreement that the core values are fair results, voter power and choice, and local representation. This paper reexamines the basic ideas of ... ...

Abstract	Criteria for a good voting system have been given particularly careful scrutiny in recent years, with general agreement that the core values are fair results, voter power and choice, and local representation. This paper reexamines the basic ideas of three widely used voting systems, the Single Transferable Vote, List-PR, and Mixed Member Proportional (MMP); and evaluates their performance in terms of both principles and practice. It looks particularly closely at proportionality, examining three aspects:n linearity, the threshold for representation and the threshold for gaining a majority. As regards local representation, an important question is how to design multi-member constituencies. It will be argued that using constituencies based on natural demographic boundaries (such as local government areas) can combine better local representation with stability over time and better proportionality. STV is unsurprisingly best for voter empowerment and choice, as those are parts of its basic idea. Broad conclusions are summarised within the Summary on page 1 of the paper. The paper makes use of recent public availability of large preferential voting data sets for STV elections, making possible new analyses of how STV functions in practice, and of voter behaviour, particularly examining how voters' second preferences relate to their first preferences. Comment: 31 pages, 12 figures, submitted to J Roy Statist Soc A as a potential Discussion Paper
Keywords	Physics - Physics and Society ; Statistics - Applications
Subject code	303
Publishing date	2023-02-10
Publishing country	us
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Preface: Challenges for future pandemics.

Mollison, Denis / Isham, Valerie / Dangerfield, Ciara / Hollingsworth, Deirdre

Epidemics

2022 Volume 40, Page(s) 100621

MeSH term(s)	Forecasting ; Pandemics
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-08-12
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Editorial
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100621
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Article: Complexities of science and politics.

Mollison, Denis

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases

2008 Volume 12, Issue 5, Page(s) 455–456

MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Cattle ; Disease Reservoirs/microbiology ; Disease Reservoirs/veterinary ; Mustelidae/microbiology ; Pest Control ; Politics ; Public Opinion ; Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic ; Tuberculosis, Bovine/prevention & control ; Tuberculosis, Bovine/transmission ; United Kingdom
Language	English
Publishing date	2008-09
Publishing country	Canada
Document type	Editorial ; Comment
ZDB-ID	1331197-9
ISSN	1878-3511 ; 1201-9712
ISSN (online)	1878-3511
ISSN	1201-9712
DOI	10.1016/j.ijid.2008.07.001
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Article ; Online: The clinico-radiological paradox of cognitive function and MRI burden of white matter lesions in people with multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Mollison, Daisy / Sellar, Robin / Bastin, Mark / Mollison, Denis / Chandran, Siddharthan / Wardlaw, Joanna / Connick, Peter

PloS one

2017 Volume 12, Issue 5, Page(s) e0177727

Abstract: Background: Moderate correlation exists between the imaging quantification of brain white matter lesions and cognitive performance in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). This may reflect the greater importance of other features, including subvisible ... ...

Abstract	Background: Moderate correlation exists between the imaging quantification of brain white matter lesions and cognitive performance in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). This may reflect the greater importance of other features, including subvisible pathology, or methodological limitations of the primary literature. Objectives: To summarise the cognitive clinico-radiological paradox and explore the potential methodological factors that could influence the assessment of this relationship. Methods: Systematic review and meta-analysis of primary research relating cognitive function to white matter lesion burden. Results: Fifty papers met eligibility criteria for review, and meta-analysis of overall results was possible in thirty-two (2050 participants). Aggregate correlation between cognition and T2 lesion burden was r = -0.30 (95% confidence interval: -0.34, -0.26). Wide methodological variability was seen, particularly related to key factors in the cognitive data capture and image analysis techniques. Conclusions: Resolving the persistent clinico-radiological paradox will likely require simultaneous evaluation of multiple components of the complex pathology using optimum measurement techniques for both cognitive and MRI feature quantification. We recommend a consensus initiative to support common standards for image analysis in MS, enabling benchmarking while also supporting ongoing innovation.
MeSH term(s)	Brain/diagnostic imaging ; Brain/pathology ; Cognition ; Humans ; Image Processing, Computer-Assisted ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging ; Multiple Sclerosis/diagnosis ; Multiple Sclerosis/psychology ; Neuropsychological Tests ; Publication Bias ; White Matter/diagnostic imaging ; White Matter/pathology
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-05-15
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Meta-Analysis ; Review ; Systematic Review
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0177727
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Article ; Online: Anteroposterior radiograph of the lumbar spine.

Gibson, Lorna Mary / Mollison, Daisy

BMJ (Clinical research ed.)

2014 Volume 348, Page(s) g1462

MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Lumbar Vertebrae/anatomy & histology ; Lumbar Vertebrae/diagnostic imaging ; Radiography ; Sacroiliac Joint/anatomy & histology ; Sacroiliac Joint/diagnostic imaging
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-03-04
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1362901-3
ISSN	1756-1833 ; 0959-8154 ; 0959-8146 ; 0959-8138 ; 0959-535X ; 1759-2151
ISSN (online)	1756-1833
ISSN	0959-8154 ; 0959-8146 ; 0959-8138 ; 0959-535X ; 1759-2151
DOI	10.1136/bmj.g1462
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Article ; Online: The prevalence of paramagnetic rim lesions in multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Ng Kee Kwong, Koy Chong / Mollison, Daisy / Meijboom, Rozanna / York, Elizabeth N / Kampaite, Agniete / Thrippleton, Michael J / Chandran, Siddharthan / Waldman, Adam D

PloS one

2021 Volume 16, Issue 9, Page(s) e0256845

Abstract: Background: Recent findings from several studies have shown that paramagnetic rim lesions identified using susceptibility-based MRI could represent potential diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers in multiple sclerosis (MS). Here, we perform a systematic ... ...

Abstract	Background: Recent findings from several studies have shown that paramagnetic rim lesions identified using susceptibility-based MRI could represent potential diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers in multiple sclerosis (MS). Here, we perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the existing literature to assess their pooled prevalence at lesion-level and patient-level. Methods: Both database searching (PubMed and Embase) and handsearching were conducted to identify studies allowing the lesion-level and/or patient-level prevalence of rim lesions or chronic active lesions to be calculated. Pooled prevalence was estimated using the DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were performed to explore possible sources of heterogeneity. PROSPERO registration: CRD42020192282. Results: 29 studies comprising 1230 patients were eligible for analysis. Meta-analysis estimated pooled prevalences of 9.8% (95% CI: 6.6-14.2) and 40.6% (95% CI: 26.2-56.8) for rim lesions at lesion-level and patient-level, respectively. Pooled lesion-level and patient-level prevalences for chronic active lesions were 12.0% (95% CI: 9.0-15.8) and 64.8% (95% CI: 54.3-74.0), respectively. Considerable heterogeneity was observed across studies (I2>75%). Subgroup analysis revealed a significant difference in patient-level prevalence between studies conducted at 3T and 7T (p = 0.0312). Meta-regression analyses also showed significant differences in lesion-level prevalence with respect to age (p = 0.0018, R2 = 0.20) and disease duration (p = 0.0018, R2 = 0.48). Other moderator analyses demonstrated no significant differences according to MRI sequence, gender and expanded disability status scale (EDSS). Conclusion: In this study, we show that paramagnetic rim lesions may be present in an important proportion of MS patients, notwithstanding significant variation in their assessment across studies. In view of their possible clinical relevance, we believe that clear guidelines should be introduced to standardise their assessment across research centres to in turn facilitate future analyses.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Biomarkers, Tumor ; Female ; Humans ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging/methods ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Multiple Sclerosis/diagnostic imaging ; Multiple Sclerosis/epidemiology ; Multiple Sclerosis/pathology ; Prevalence ; Prognosis ; Young Adult
Chemical Substances	Biomarkers, Tumor
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-09-08
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Meta-Analysis ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Systematic Review
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0256845
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Article ; Online: Challenges on the interaction of models and policy for pandemic control.

Hadley, Liza / Challenor, Peter / Dent, Chris / Isham, Valerie / Mollison, Denis / Robertson, Duncan A / Swallow, Ben / Webb, Cerian R

Epidemics

2021 Volume 37, Page(s) 100499

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has seen infectious disease modelling at the forefront of government decision-making. Models have been widely used throughout the pandemic to estimate pathogen spread and explore the potential impact of different intervention ... ...

Abstract	The COVID-19 pandemic has seen infectious disease modelling at the forefront of government decision-making. Models have been widely used throughout the pandemic to estimate pathogen spread and explore the potential impact of different intervention strategies. Infectious disease modellers and policymakers have worked effectively together, but there are many avenues for progress on this interface. In this paper, we identify and discuss seven broad challenges on the interaction of models and policy for pandemic control. We then conclude with suggestions and recommendations for the future.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; Humans ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Policy ; SARS-CoV-2
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-30
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100499
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Article: Dependence of epidemic and population velocities on basic parameters.

Mollison, D

Mathematical biosciences

1991 Volume 107, Issue 2, Page(s) 255–287

Abstract: This paper describes the use of linear deterministic models for examining the spread of population processes, discussing their advantages and limitations. Their main advantages are that their assumptions are relatively transparent and that they are easy ... ...

Abstract	This paper describes the use of linear deterministic models for examining the spread of population processes, discussing their advantages and limitations. Their main advantages are that their assumptions are relatively transparent and that they are easy to analyze, yet they generally give the same velocity as more complex linear stochastic and nonlinear deterministic models. Their simplicity, especially if we use the elegant reproduction and dispersal kernel formulation of Diekmann and van den Bosch et al., allows us greater freedom to choose a biologically realistic model and greatly facilitates examination of the dependence of conclusions on model components and of how these are incorporated into the model and fitted from data. This is illustrated by consideration of a range of examples, including both diffusion and dispersal models and by discussion of their application to both epidemic and population dynamic problems. A general limitation on fitting models results from the poor accuracy of most ecological data, especially on dispersal distances. Confirmation of a model is thus rarely as convincing as those cases where we can clearly reject one. We also need to be aware that linear models provide only an upper bound for the velocity of more realistic nonlinear stochastic models and are almost wholly inadequate when it comes to modeling more complex aspects such as the transition to endemicity and endemic patterns. These limitations are, however, to a great extent shared by linear stochastic and nonlinear deterministic models.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data ; Foxes ; Humans ; Linear Models ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Rabies/epidemiology ; Rabies/veterinary
Language	English
Publishing date	1991-12
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1126-5
ISSN	1879-3134 ; 0025-5564
ISSN (online)	1879-3134
ISSN	0025-5564
DOI	10.1016/0025-5564(91)90009-8
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Article ; Online: Modelling: Understanding pandemics and how to control them.

Marion, Glenn / Hadley, Liza / Isham, Valerie / Mollison, Denis / Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina / Pellis, Lorenzo / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia / Scarabel, Francesca / Swallow, Ben / Trapman, Pieter / Villela, Daniel

Epidemics

2022 Volume 39, Page(s) 100588

Abstract: New disease challenges, societal demands and better or novel types of data, drive innovations in the structure, formulation and analysis of epidemic models. Innovations in modelling can lead to new insights into epidemic processes and better use of ... ...

Abstract	New disease challenges, societal demands and better or novel types of data, drive innovations in the structure, formulation and analysis of epidemic models. Innovations in modelling can lead to new insights into epidemic processes and better use of available data, yielding improved disease control and stimulating collection of better data and new data types. Here we identify key challenges for the structure, formulation, analysis and use of mathematical models of pathogen transmission relevant to current and future pandemics.
MeSH term(s)	Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics/prevention & control
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-05-31
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100588
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Article: Simplifying simple epidemic models.

Mollison, D

Nature

1984 Volume 310, Issue 5974, Page(s) 224–225

Abstract: Interest has recently revived in the use of simple models for epidemic diseases. In particular, Anderson et al. have introduced an improved simple differential equation model for diseases such as fox rabies which regulate the population density of their ... ...

Abstract	Interest has recently revived in the use of simple models for epidemic diseases. In particular, Anderson et al. have introduced an improved simple differential equation model for diseases such as fox rabies which regulate the population density of their host. Here I describe how such apparently simple models can be dissected into their basic components. This dissection facilitates a structural sensitivity analysis in which we explore the dependence of features of a model's behaviour on the assumptions regarding each component. I report that particular features can be related to particular components, for example, oscillations depend mainly on population growth and the generation gap of the disease, while estimates of the effect of potential control strategies such as vaccination or culling can be related directly to assumptions concerning the infection term and the way it changes with population density. Some features, for example, the level of prevalence of the disease and the period of any oscillations, turn out to be robust, depending mainly on basic ecological parameters. Others, including the crucial estimates regarding control, prove very sensitive to the details of the model. This is unfortunate, as the detailed form of the components is to a large extent chosen, not for ecological reasons, but to keep models simple, for example, the infectious period of a disease is often assumed to have an exponential distribution because this implies a constant death or recovery rate for infectious individuals which is mathematically very convenient for a continuous-time model. Because our dissection is in terms of components with straightforward ecological interpretations, any required improvements in modelling can be related to observational evidence which either exists or for which experiments can be suggested.
MeSH term(s)	Animal Diseases ; Animals ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Epidemiologic Methods/veterinary ; Foxes ; Mathematics ; Models, Biological ; Population ; Rabies/epidemiology ; Rabies/veterinary
Language	English
Publishing date	1984-07
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	120714-3
ISSN	1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
ISSN (online)	1476-4687
ISSN	0028-0836
DOI	10.1038/310224a0
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