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Article ; Online: Evaluating area-specific adaptation strategies for rainfed maize under future climates of India.

Subba Rao, A V M / Sarath Chandran, M A / Bal, Santanu Kumar / Pramod, V P / Sandeep, V M / Manikandan, N / Raju, B M K / Prabhakar, M / Islam, Adlul / Naresh Kumar, S / Singh, V K

The Science of the total environment

2022 Volume 836, Page(s) 155511

Abstract: This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes in maize yield under projected climate and identified the potential adaptation measures to reduce the negative impact. Future climate data derived from 30 general circulation models were used to assess ... ...

Abstract	This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes in maize yield under projected climate and identified the potential adaptation measures to reduce the negative impact. Future climate data derived from 30 general circulation models were used to assess the impact of future climate on yield in 16 major maize growing districts of India. DSSAT model was used to simulate maize yield and evaluate adaptation strategies during mid (2040-69) and end-centuries (2070-99) under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Genetic coefficients were calibrated and validated for each of the study locations. The projected climate indicated a substantial increase in mean seasonal maximum (0.9-6.0 °C) and minimum temperatures (1.1-6.1 °C) in the future (the range denotes the lowest and highest change during all the four future scenarios). Without adaptation strategies, climate change could reduce maize yield in the range of 16% (Tumkur) to 46% (Jalandhar) under RCP 4.5 and 21% (Tumkur) to 80% (Jalandhar) under RCP 8.5. Only at Dharwad, the yield could remain slightly higher or the same compared to the baseline period (1980-2009). Six adaptation strategies were evaluated (delayed sowing, increase in fertilizer dose, supplemental irrigation, and their combinations) in which a combination of those was found to be effective in majority of the districts. District-specific adaptation strategies were identified for each of the future scenarios. The findings of this study will enable in planning adaptation strategies to minimize the negative impact of projected climate in major maize growing districts of India.
MeSH term(s)	Adaptation, Physiological ; Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Zea mays
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-28
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	121506-1
ISSN	1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
ISSN (online)	1879-1026
ISSN	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155511
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Article: Variability in Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) Germplasm and Hybrids for Fatty Acid Profile of Oil

Naresh Kumar, S

Journal of agricultural and food chemistry. 2011 Dec. 28, v. 59, no. 24

2011

Abstract: Coconut oil, the main product of coconut fruit, is the richest source of glycerol and lauric acid and hence is called lauric oil. This paper reports the fatty acid profile of oil from 60 Talls, 14 Dwarfs, and 34 hybrids. These include collections from 13 ...

Abstract	Coconut oil, the main product of coconut fruit, is the richest source of glycerol and lauric acid and hence is called lauric oil. This paper reports the fatty acid profile of oil from 60 Talls, 14 Dwarfs, and 34 hybrids. These include collections from 13 countries covering a large coconut-growing area of the world, apart from the indigenous ones. Capillary gas chromatography analysis of oil indicated a wider variation for the fatty acid profile than earlier reported. Apart from this, for the first time other fatty acids such as behenic and lignoceric acids were detected. Oil from cultivars and hybrids of coconut has significantly differed, particularly for commercially important fatty acids such as lauric acid and unsaturated fatty acids. However, coconut oil seems to have a conserved fatty acid profile, mainly because of low unsaturated fatty acids, indicating the possibility of grouping cultivars on the basis of their fatty acid profiles. The cluster analysis based on fatty acid profile indicated grouping together of geographically and typically closely related cultivars. Cultivars with high concentrations of specific fatty acids can be of potential use for industrial exploitation, whereas those with high concentrations of short- and medium-chain fatty acids and unsaturated fatty acids are more suitable for human consumption. Cultivars and hybrids with high and low values for each of the fatty acids are also identified.
Keywords	Cocos nucifera ; capillary gas chromatography ; cluster analysis ; coconut oil ; coconuts ; cultivars ; dodecanoic acid ; fatty acid composition ; germplasm ; glycerol ; hybrids ; unsaturated fatty acids
Language	English
Size	p. 13050–13058.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	241619-0
ISSN	1520-5118 ; 0021-8561
ISSN (online)	1520-5118
ISSN	0021-8561
DOI	10.1021/jf203182d
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Climate change and coconut plantations in India: Impacts and potential adaptation gains

Naresh Kumar, S / Aggarwal, P.K

Agricultural systems. 2013 May, v. 117

2013

Abstract: The assessment of impact of climate change on coconut, a plantation crop, is challenging. However, the development of a simulation model (InfoCrop-COCONUT) has enabled the process. We present the first simulation analysis of the potential impacts of ... ...

Abstract	The assessment of impact of climate change on coconut, a plantation crop, is challenging. However, the development of a simulation model (InfoCrop-COCONUT) has enabled the process. We present the first simulation analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on coconut productivity in India following two approaches, namely: (i) ‘fixed increase in temperature and CO₂, and (ii) scenarios as per PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) – a regional climate model. Impact of changed management on coconut productivity in current as well as in future climates is also assessed. Climate change is projected to increase coconut productivity in western coastal region, Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra (provided current level of water and management is made available in future climates as well) and also in North-Eastern states, islands of Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep while negative impacts are projected for Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Gujarat and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. On all India basis, even with current management, climate change is projected to increase coconut productivity by 4.3% in A1B 2030, 1.9% in A1B 2080, 6.8% in A2 2080 and 5.7% in B2 2080 scenarios of PRECIS over mean productivity of 2000–2005 period. Agronomic adaptations like soil moisture conservation, summer irrigation, drip irrigation, and fertilizer application cannot only minimize losses in majority of coconut growing regions, but also improve productivity substantially. Further, genetic adaptation measures like growing improved local Tall cultivars and hybrids under improved crop management is needed for long-term adaptation of plantation to climate change, particularly in regions that are projected to be negatively impacted by climate change. Such strategy can increase the productivity by about 33% in 2030, and by 25–32% in 2080 climate scenarios. In fact, productivity can be improved by 20% to almost double if all plantations in India are provided with above mentioned management even in current climates. In places where positive impacts are projected, current poor management may become a limiting factor in reaping the benefits of CO₂ fertilization, while in negatively affected regions adaptation strategies can reduce the impacts. Thus, intensive genetic and agronomic adaptation to climate change can substantially benefit the coconut production in India.
Keywords	carbon dioxide ; climate ; climate change ; coconuts ; crop management ; crop production ; cultivars ; fertilizer application ; hybrids ; microirrigation ; plantations ; simulation models ; soil water ; summer ; temperature ; India
Language	English
Dates of publication	2013-05
Size	p. 45-54.
Publishing place	Elsevier Ltd
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	413255-5
ISSN	0308-521X
ISSN	0308-521X
DOI	10.1016/j.agsy.2013.01.001
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Prioritization of global climate models using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and reliability index

Panjwani, Shweta / Ahuja, Laxmi / Islam, Adlul / Naresh Kumar, S

Theoretical and applied climatology. 2019 Aug., v. 137, no. 3-4

2019

Abstract: Climate scenarios derived from the global climate models (GCMs) are used for climate change impact studies in several sectors including agriculture, hydrological, and health. Globally, more than 50 climate models exist and choosing suitable models based ... ...

Abstract	Climate scenarios derived from the global climate models (GCMs) are used for climate change impact studies in several sectors including agriculture, hydrological, and health. Globally, more than 50 climate models exist and choosing suitable models based on reproducibility of observed weather for a study region is a challenging task. This step is important to reduce uncertainty. This study compared the simulation performance of 12 global climate models for temperatures and rainfall in past 30 years over Indian region. For this, Priority index from Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Reliability index were used and both methods were compared. Study revealed all 12 models overestimated minimum and maximum temperatures in most regions of India, which resulted in hot bias especially in northern region. However, models showed significant cold bias for the Himalayan region. In general, simulated rainfall was underestimated by many GCMs. The analysis indicated that FAHP method is good to shortlist GCMs based on their spatial and temporal performance in reproducing observed weather. Among 12 models, NORESM1 model has performed better in reproducing maximum temperature. The IPSL-LR, FIO-ESM, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5 models have performed better for minimum temperature. In case of rainfall, CSIRO, MIROC5, HADGEM2, GFDL-ESM 2 M, and IPSL-LR have performed better as compared to other models.
Keywords	climate ; climate change ; climate models ; cold ; hydrology ; prioritization ; rain ; rainfall simulation ; temperature ; uncertainty ; Himalayan region ; India
Language	English
Dates of publication	2019-08
Size	p. 2381-2392.
Publishing place	Springer Vienna
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	1463177-5
ISSN	1434-4483 ; 0177-798X
ISSN (online)	1434-4483
ISSN	0177-798X
DOI	10.1007/s00704-018-2707-y
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Evaluating area-specific adaptation strategies for rainfed maize under future climates of India

Subba Rao, A.V.M. / Sarath Chandran, M.A. / Bal, Santanu Kumar / Pramod, V.P. / Sandeep, V.M. / Manikandan, N. / Raju, B.M.K. / Prabhakar, M. / Islam, Adlul / Naresh Kumar, S. / Singh, V.K.

Science of the total environment. 2022 Aug. 25, v. 836

2022

Abstract	This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes in maize yield under projected climate and identified the potential adaptation measures to reduce the negative impact. Future climate data derived from 30 general circulation models were used to assess the impact of future climate on yield in 16 major maize growing districts of India. DSSAT model was used to simulate maize yield and evaluate adaptation strategies during mid (2040-69) and end-centuries (2070-99) under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Genetic coefficients were calibrated and validated for each of the study locations. The projected climate indicated a substantial increase in mean seasonal maximum (0.9–6.0 °C) and minimum temperatures (1.1–6.1 °C) in the future (the range denotes the lowest and highest change during all the four future scenarios). Without adaptation strategies, climate change could reduce maize yield in the range of 16% (Tumkur) to 46% (Jalandhar) under RCP 4.5 and 21% (Tumkur) to 80% (Jalandhar) under RCP 8.5. Only at Dharwad, the yield could remain slightly higher or the same compared to the baseline period (1980–2009). Six adaptation strategies were evaluated (delayed sowing, increase in fertilizer dose, supplemental irrigation, and their combinations) in which a combination of those was found to be effective in majority of the districts. District-specific adaptation strategies were identified for each of the future scenarios. The findings of this study will enable in planning adaptation strategies to minimize the negative impact of projected climate in major maize growing districts of India.
Keywords	climate ; climate change ; corn ; environment ; fertilizer rates ; irrigation ; meteorological data ; India
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-0825
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	121506-1
ISSN	1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
ISSN (online)	1879-1026
ISSN	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155511
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Seasonal variations in fatty acid composition of oil in developing coconut

Naresh Kumar, S / Balakrishna, A

Journal of food quality. 2009 Apr., v. 32, no. 2

2009

Abstract: Studies on seasonal variation in oil and fatty acid profile of developing solid endosperm of two cultivars, West Coast Tall (WCT) and Chowghat Orange Dwarf (COD), and their hybrids indicated that oil percentage increased from 30% in 6-month-old nuts to ... ...

Abstract	Studies on seasonal variation in oil and fatty acid profile of developing solid endosperm of two cultivars, West Coast Tall (WCT) and Chowghat Orange Dwarf (COD), and their hybrids indicated that oil percentage increased from 30% in 6-month-old nuts to 63% in matured nuts (12 months old). Nuts sampled during July from different levels of maturity had high oil percentage and followed by those sampled during April, October and January. During nut development to maturity, the percentages and contents of medium and long chain saturated fatty acids increased except that of palmitic and myristic acids. Concentration of long chain unsaturated fatty acids (LCUFAs) in developing coconut kernel were high at 5 and 6 months after fertilization and then decreased toward maturity. The LCUFAs were high in nuts developing during October; consequently, saturated to unsaturated fatty acid ratios were low during October. Results indicated that nuts matured during October had better nutritional quality for human consumption and those matured during January are more suitable for industrial purpose due to higher medium chain fatty acid concentrations. Coconut is consumed either as the tender nut (5-6 months after fertilization) or as the kernel from mature nut (12 months after fertilization). Recent technologies of making snowball tender nut use the nuts aged 7-8 months old. Kernel also is consumed in this product. Apart from this, the coconut is being increasingly used for making different kernel-based value-added products. This information is useful, as the value-added products are being developed using different maturities of coconut. Hence, it is of paramount importance that the fatty acid profile of coconut kernel is known in detail for assessing the safety of food consumption from the human health point of view. Apart from this, information on the seasonal variation in fatty acid profile of developing endosperm gives an integrated knowledge so as to optimize the usage of coconut kernel for both human consumption and industrial exploitation.
Keywords	coasts ; coconut oil ; coconuts ; cultivars ; endosperm ; fatty acid composition ; food consumption ; food safety ; human health ; hybrids ; long chain saturated fatty acids ; long chain unsaturated fatty acids ; medium chain fatty acids ; nutritive value ; nuts ; palmitic acid ; seasonal variation ; seeds ; unsaturated fatty acids ; value-added products
Language	English
Dates of publication	2009-04
Size	p. 158-176.
Publisher	Blackwell Publishing Inc
Publishing place	Malden, USA
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	428332-6
ISSN	0146-9428
ISSN	0146-9428
DOI	10.1111/j.1745-4557.2009.00243.x
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Climate change and coconut plantations in India

Naresh Kumar, Soora / Aggarwal, Pramod K.

Agricultural Systems

Impacts and potential adaptation gains

2014

Abstract	The assessment of impact of climate change on coconut, a plantation crop, is challenging. However, the development of a simulation model (InfoCrop-COCONUT) has enabled the process. We present the first simulation analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on coconut productivity in India following two approaches, namely: (i) ‘fixed increase in temperature and CO2, and (ii) scenarios as per PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) – a regional climate model. Impact of changed management on coconut productivity in current as well as in future climates is also assessed. Climate change is projected to increase coconut productivity in western coastal region, Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra (provided current level of water and management is made available in future climates as well) and also in North-Eastern states, islands of Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep while negative impacts are projected for Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Gujarat and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. On all India basis, even with current management, climate change is projected to increase coconut productivity by 4.3% in A1B 2030, 1.9% in A1B 2080, 6.8% in A2 2080 and 5.7% in B2 2080 scenarios of PRECIS over mean productivity of 2000–2005 period. Agronomic adaptations like soil moisture conservation, summer irrigation, drip irrigation, and fertilizer application cannot only minimize losses in majority of coconut growing regions, but also improve productivity substantially. Further, genetic adaptation measures like growing improved local Tall cultivars and hybrids under improved crop management is needed for long-term adaptation of plantation to climate change, particularly in regions that are projected to be negatively impacted by climate change. Such strategy can increase the productivity by about 33% in 2030, and by 25–32% in 2080 climate scenarios. In fact, productivity can be improved by 20% to almost double if all plantations in India are provided with above mentioned management even ...
Keywords	climate ; agriculture ; adaptation ; coconuts ; cocos nucifera ; simulation models
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-12-16T06:37:33Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Publishing country	fr
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Assessment on vulnerability of sorghum to climate change in India

Srivastava, Aditi / Naresh Kumar, S / Aggarwal, P.K

Agriculture, ecosystems & environment. 2010 Aug. 15, v. 138, no. 3-4

2010

Abstract: It is important to analyse the impacts of climate change on target production system. However, it is more important to deduce possible adaptation strategies so that the research and developmental policies can be guided to meet the challenges of climate ... ...

Abstract	It is important to analyse the impacts of climate change on target production system. However, it is more important to deduce possible adaptation strategies so that the research and developmental policies can be guided to meet the challenges of climate change. Impacts of climate change on the sorghum production system in India are analysed using InfoCrop-SORGHUM simulation model. In general, impact of climate change is projected to be more on winter crop in central (CZ) and south-central zones (SCZ), while in south-west zone (SWZ) the impacts are likely to be higher on monsoon crop. Climate change is projected to reduce monsoon sorghum grain yield to the tune of 14% in CZ and SWZ and by 2% in SCZ by 2020. Yields are likely to be affected even more in 2050 and 2080 scenarios. Climate change impacts on winter crop are projected to reduce yields up to 7% by 2020, up to 11% by 2050 and up to 32% by 2080. Impacts are projected to be more in SWZ region than in SCZ and CZ. But, the yield loss due to rise in temperature is likely to be offset by projected increase in rainfall. However, complete amelioration of yield loss beyond 2°C rise may not be attained even after doubling of rainfall in south-central zone (SCZ) and in central zone (CZ). Results indicate that adaptation strategies like changing variety and sowing date can reduce the vulnerability of monsoon sorghum to about 10%, 2% and 3% in CZ, SCZ and SWZ regions in 2020 scenario. Adaptation strategies reduced the climate change impacts and vulnerability of winter crop to 1-2% in 2020, 3-8% in 2050 and 4-9% in 2080. This indicates that more low-cost adaptation strategies should be explored to further reduce the net vulnerability of sorghum production system in India.
Keywords	Sorghum bicolor ; grain sorghum ; plant adaptation ; climate change ; cropping systems ; crop models ; geographical variation ; seasonal variation ; grain yield ; climate models ; sowing date ; cultivars ; air temperature ; rain ; India
Language	English
Dates of publication	2010-0815
Size	p. 160-169.
Publishing place	Amsterdam; New York: Elsevier
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	602345-9
ISSN	0167-8809
ISSN	0167-8809
DOI	10.1016/j.agee.2010.04.012
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India

Byjesh, K. / Naresh Kumar, Soora / Aggarwal, Pramod K.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

2013

Abstract: Climate change associated global warming, rise in carbon dioxide concentration and uncertainties in precipitation has profound implications on Indian agriculture. Maize (Zea mays L.), the third most important cereal crop in India, has a major role to ... ...

Abstract	Climate change associated global warming, rise in carbon dioxide concentration and uncertainties in precipitation has profound implications on Indian agriculture. Maize (Zea mays L.), the third most important cereal crop in India, has a major role to play in countryﾒs food security. Thus, it is important to analyze the consequence of climate change on maize productivity in major maize producing regions in India and elucidate potential adaptive strategy to minimize the adverse effects. Calibrated and validated InfoCrop-MAIZE model was used for analyzing the impacts of increase in temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2) and change in rainfall apart from HadCM3 A2a scenario for 2020, 2050 and 2080. The main insights from the analysis are threefold. First, maize yields in monsoon are projected to be adversely affected due to rise in atmospheric temperature; but increased rainfall can partly offset those loses. During winter, maize grain yield is projected to reduced with increase in temperature in two of the regions (Mid Indo-Gangetic Plains or MIGP, Southern Plateau or SP), but in the Upper Indo-Gangetic Plain (UIGP), where relatively low temperatures prevail during winter, yield increased up to a 2.7ﾰC rise in temperature. Variation in rainfall may not have a major impact on winter yields, as the crop is already well irrigated. Secondly, the spatio-temporal variations in projected changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to lead to differential impacts in the different regions. In particular, monsoon yield is reduced most in SP (up to 35%), winter yield is reduced most in MIGP (up to 55%), while UIGP yields are relatively unaffected. Third, developing new cultivars with growth pattern in changed climate scenarios similar to that of current varieties in present conditions could be an advantageous adaptation strategy for minimizing the vulnerability of maize production in India.
Keywords	agriculture ; maize ; carbon dioxide ; yields ; climate
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-07-31T11:48:07Z
Publisher	Springer
Publishing country	fr
Document type	Article ; Online
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Article ; Online: Assessment on vulnerability of sorghum to climate change in India

Srivastava A / Naresh Kumar, Soora / Aggarwal, Pramod K.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

2013

Abstract	It is important to analyse the impacts of climate change on target production system. However, it is more important to deduce possible adaptation strategies so that the research and developmental policies can be guided to meet the challenges of climate change. Impacts of climate change on the sorghum production system in India are analysed using InfoCrop-SORGHUM simulation model. In general, impact of climate change is projected to be more on winter crop in central (CZ) and south-central zones (SCZ), while in south-west zone (SWZ) the impacts are likely to be higher on monsoon crop. Climate change is projected to reduce monsoon sorghum grain yield to the tune of 14% in CZ, SWZ and by 2% in SCZ by 2020. Yields are likely to be affected even more in 2050 and 2080 scenarios. Climate change impacts on winter crop are projected to reduce yields up to 7% by 2020, up to 11% by 2050 and up to 32% by 2080. Impacts are projected to be more in SWZ region than in SCZ,Z Z. But, the yield loss due to rise in temperature is likely to be offset by projected increase in rainfall. However, complete amelioration of yield loss beyond 2 °C rise may not be attained even after doubling of rainfall in south-central zone (SCZ) and in central zone (CZ). Results indicate that adaptation strategies like changing variety and sowing date can reduce the vulnerability of monsoon sorghum to about 10%, 2% and 3% in CZ, SCZ,Z WZ regions in 2020 scenario. Adaptation strategies reduced the climate change impacts and vulnerability of winter crop to 1–2% in 2020, 3–8% in 2050 and 4–9% in 2080. This indicates that more low-cost adaptation strategies should be explored to further reduce the net vulnerability of sorghum production system in India.
Keywords	adaptation ; agriculture ; climate ; yields
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-07-31T11:48:15Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Publishing country	fr
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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