LIVIVO - Search results -

Search results

Result 1 - 10 of total 23

Search options

Article ; Online: Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures.

Trevisin, Cristiano / Lemaitre, Joseph C / Mari, Lorenzo / Pasetto, Damiano / Gatto, Marino / Rinaldo, Andrea

2022 Volume 19, Issue 188, Page(s) 20210844

Abstract: The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic ... ...

Abstract	The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic metrics of unfolding outbreaks are of particular importance when designing adaptive emergency interventions facing real-time assimilation of epidemiological evidence. Our aim here is twofold. First, we propose a novel form of the epidemicity index for the characterization of cholera epidemics in spatial models of disease spread. Second, we examine in hindsight the survey of infections, treatments and containment measures carried out for the now extinct 2010-2019 Haiti cholera outbreak, to suggest that magnitude and timing of non-pharmaceutical and vaccination interventions imply epidemiological responses recapped by the evolution of epidemicity indices. Achieving negative epidemicity greatly accelerates fading of infections and thus proves a worthwhile target of containment measures. We also show that, in our model, effective reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices are explicitly related. Therefore, providing an upper bound to the effective reproduction number (significantly lower than the unit threshold) warrants negative epidemicity and, in turn, a rapidly fading outbreak preventing coalescence of sparse local sub-threshold flare-ups.
MeSH term(s)	Basic Reproduction Number ; Cholera/epidemiology ; Cholera/prevention & control ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control ; Epidemics ; Haiti/epidemiology ; Humans ; Infection Control
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-03-09
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2156283-0
ISSN	1742-5662 ; 1742-5689
ISSN (online)	1742-5662
ISSN	1742-5689
DOI	10.1098/rsif.2021.0844
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

Order via subito

This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.

Article: A stratified compartmental model for the transmission of

Stella, Elisa / Pastres, Roberto / Pasetto, Damiano / Kolega, Matko / Mejdandžić, Danijel / Čolak, Slavica / Musmanno, Antares / Gustinelli, Andrea / Mari, Lorenzo / Bertuzzo, Enrico

Royal Society open science

2023 Volume 10, Issue 5, Page(s) 221377

Abstract: The rapid development of intensive fish farming has been associated with the spreading of infectious diseases, pathogens and parasites. One such parasite ... ...

Abstract	The rapid development of intensive fish farming has been associated with the spreading of infectious diseases, pathogens and parasites. One such parasite is
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-05-17
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2787755-3
ISSN	2054-5703
ISSN	2054-5703
DOI	10.1098/rsos.221377
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

Order via subito

Article ; Online: Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data.

Trevisin, Cristiano / Bertuzzo, Enrico / Pasetto, Damiano / Mari, Lorenzo / Miccoli, Stefano / Casagrandi, Renato / Gatto, Marino / Rinaldo, Andrea

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

2023 Volume 120, Issue 20, Page(s) e2219816120

Abstract: Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections ... ...

Abstract	Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections among different communities may thus be misrepresented unless explicitly measured and accounted for in the renewal equations. Here, we first derive the equations that include spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers, ℛ
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Incidence ; Bayes Theorem ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Likelihood Functions
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-05-09
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	209104-5
ISSN	1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
ISSN (online)	1091-6490
ISSN	0027-8424
DOI	10.1073/pnas.2219816120
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

Zs.A 1148: Show issues

Location:
Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

Order via subito

Details ▾
- See ZB MED holdings
- Order with fees

Article ; Online: The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Mari, Lorenzo / Casagrandi, Renato / Bertuzzo, Enrico / Pasetto, Damiano / Miccoli, Stefano / Rinaldo, Andrea / Gatto, Marino

Nature communications

2021 Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 2752

Abstract: Several indices can predict the long-term fate of emerging infectious diseases and the effect of their containment measures, including a variety of reproduction numbers (e.g. [Formula: see text]). Other indices evaluate the potential for transient ... ...

Abstract	Several indices can predict the long-term fate of emerging infectious diseases and the effect of their containment measures, including a variety of reproduction numbers (e.g. [Formula: see text]). Other indices evaluate the potential for transient increases of epidemics eventually doomed to disappearance, based on generalized reactivity analysis. They identify conditions for perturbations to a stable disease-free equilibrium ([Formula: see text]) to grow, possibly causing significant damage. Here, we introduce the epidemicity index e
MeSH term(s)	Algorithms ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/virology ; Computer Simulation ; Geography ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ; SARS-CoV-2/physiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-12
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2553671-0
ISSN	2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
ISSN (online)	2041-1723
ISSN	2041-1723
DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-22878-7
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

Order via subito

Article ; Online: Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study.

Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi / Pasetto, Damiano / Zanon, Mario / Bertuzzo, Enrico / Mari, Lorenzo / Miccoli, Stefano / Casagrandi, Renato / Gatto, Marino / Rinaldo, Andrea

PLoS computational biology

2022 Volume 18, Issue 7, Page(s) e1010237

Abstract: While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or ... ...

Abstract	While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history and transmission, we explore spatial allocation strategies as a complement to existing approaches. Given the practical constraints and complex epidemiological dynamics, designing effective vaccination strategies at a country scale is an intricate task. We propose a novel optimal control framework to derive the best possible vaccine allocation for given disease transmission projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistics. As a proof-of-concept, we couple our framework with an existing spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We optimize the vaccine allocation on scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021. For each scenario, the optimal solution significantly outperforms alternative strategies that prioritize provinces based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities implies highly non-trivial prioritization strategies for effective vaccination campaigns. Our work demonstrates the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological landscapes at country, and possibly global, scales.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Humans ; Immunization Programs ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vaccination/methods
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-07-08
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2193340-6
ISSN	1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
ISSN (online)	1553-7358
ISSN	1553-734X
DOI	10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010237
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

Order via subito

Article ; Online: A minimalist model of extinction and range dynamics of virtual mountain species driven by warming temperatures.

Giezendanner, Jonathan / Bertuzzo, Enrico / Pasetto, Damiano / Guisan, Antoine / Rinaldo, Andrea

PloS one

2019 Volume 14, Issue 3, Page(s) e0213775

Abstract: A longstanding question in ecology concerns the prediction of the fate of mountain species under climate change, where climatic and geomorphic factors but also endogenous species characteristics are jointly expected to control species distributions. A ... ...

Abstract	A longstanding question in ecology concerns the prediction of the fate of mountain species under climate change, where climatic and geomorphic factors but also endogenous species characteristics are jointly expected to control species distributions. A significant step forward would single out reliably landscape effects, given their constraining role and relative ease of theoretical manipulation. Here, we address population dynamics in ecosystems where the substrates for ecological interactions are mountain landscapes subject to climate warming. We use a minimalist model of metapopulation dynamics based on virtual species (i.e. a suitable assemblage of focus species) where dispersal processes interact with the spatial structure of the landscape. Climate warming is subsumed by an upward shift of species habitat altering the metapopulation capacity of the landscape and hence species viability. We find that the landscape structure is a powerful determinant of species survival, owing to the specific role of the predictably evolving connectivity of the various habitats. Range shifts and lags in tracking suitable habitat experienced by virtual species under warming conditions are singled out in different landscapes. The range of parameters is identified for which these virtual species (characterized by comparable viability thus restricting their possible fitnesses and niche widths) prove unable to cope with environmental change. The statistics of the proportion of species bound to survive is identified for each landscape, providing the temporal evolution of species range shifts and the related expected occupation patterns. A baseline dynamic model for predicting species fates in evolving habitats is thus provided.
MeSH term(s)	Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Temperature
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-03-18
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0213775
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

Order via subito

Article: Integration of moment equations in a reduced-order modeling strategy for Monte Carlo simulations of groundwater flow

Xia, Chuan-An / Pasetto, Damiano / Hu, Bill X / Putti, Mario / Guadagnini, Alberto

Journal of hydrology. 2020 Nov., v. 590

2020

Abstract: We illustrate and test an approach grounded on embedding moment equations (MEs) of groundwater flow within a Monte Carlo based modeling strategy to yield a Reduced-Order Model (ROM) that enables the efficient and accurate evaluation of probability ... ...

Abstract	We illustrate and test an approach grounded on embedding moment equations (MEs) of groundwater flow within a Monte Carlo based modeling strategy to yield a Reduced-Order Model (ROM) that enables the efficient and accurate evaluation of probability distributions of hydraulic heads in randomly heterogeneous transmissivity fields. The projection space determining the accuracy of the ROM solution is typically computed through the principal component analysis of a selected number of full system model solutions (the so-called snapshots). Computationally expensive sensitivity analyses are then required to assess the independence of the ROM from the snapshots. Here, we propose to compute the projection vectors upon relying on the hydraulic head covariance evaluated from the solution of corresponding MEs of groundwater flow.Our workflow to compute hydraulic head distributions is organized according to the following steps: (i) approximation of mean hydraulic head and head covariance matrix through (second-order accurate) solutions of MEs; (ii) computation of the leading eigenvectors of the head covariance matrix to form the basis set for the ROM projection space; and (iii) construction of the ROM. Sample probability density functions of hydraulic heads are then efficiently obtained via Monte Carlo simulations relying on the developed ROM. The proposed methodology is compared against snapshot-based ROMs and the full system model in a two- and a three-dimensional steady-state groundwater flow setting where pumping from a point source is superimposed to a mean uniform flow. Our results show that the projection space computed by relying on MEs provides a more accurate ROM solution than the one resulting from reliance on snapshots.
Keywords	groundwater ; groundwater flow ; head ; models ; principal component analysis ; probability ; probability distribution ; variance covariance matrix
Language	English
Dates of publication	2020-11
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
Note	NAL-AP-2-clean
ZDB-ID	1473173-3
ISSN	1879-2707 ; 0022-1694
ISSN (online)	1879-2707
ISSN	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125257
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

Order via subito

Article ; Online: Range of reproduction number estimates for COVID-19 spread.

Pasetto, Damiano / Lemaitre, Joseph C / Bertuzzo, Enrico / Gatto, Marino / Rinaldo, Andrea

Biochemical and biophysical research communications

2020 Volume 538, Page(s) 253–258

Abstract: To monitor local and global COVID-19 outbreaks, and to plan containment measures, accessible and comprehensible decision-making tools need to be based on the growth rates of new confirmed infections, hospitalization or case fatality rates. Growth rates ... ...

Abstract	To monitor local and global COVID-19 outbreaks, and to plan containment measures, accessible and comprehensible decision-making tools need to be based on the growth rates of new confirmed infections, hospitalization or case fatality rates. Growth rates of new cases form the empirical basis for estimates of a variety of reproduction numbers, dimensionless numbers whose value, when larger than unity, describes surging infections and generally worsening epidemiological conditions. Typically, these determinations rely on noisy or incomplete data gained over limited periods of time, and on many parameters to estimate. This paper examines how estimates from data and models of time-evolving reproduction numbers of national COVID-19 infection spread change by using different techniques and assumptions. Given the importance acquired by reproduction numbers as diagnostic tools, assessing their range of possible variations obtainable from the same epidemiological data is relevant. We compute control reproduction numbers from Swiss and Italian COVID-19 time series adopting both data convolution (renewal equation) and a SEIR-type model. Within these two paradigms we run a comparative analysis of the possible inferences obtained through approximations of the distributions typically used to describe serial intervals, generation, latency and incubation times, and the delays between onset of symptoms and notification. Our results suggest that estimates of reproduction numbers under these different assumptions may show significant temporal differences, while the actual variability range of computed values is rather small.
MeSH term(s)	Basic Reproduction Number ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Stochastic Processes
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-12-09
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	205723-2
ISSN	1090-2104 ; 0006-291X ; 0006-291X
ISSN (online)	1090-2104 ; 0006-291X
ISSN	0006-291X
DOI	10.1016/j.bbrc.2020.12.003
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

Zs.A 116: Show issues

Location:
Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

Order via subito

Details ▾
- See ZB MED holdings
- Order with fees

Article ; Online: The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures.

Bertuzzo, Enrico / Mari, Lorenzo / Pasetto, Damiano / Miccoli, Stefano / Casagrandi, Renato / Gatto, Marino / Rinaldo, Andrea

Nature communications

2020 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 4264

Abstract: The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly ... ...

Abstract	The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily ~5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown.
MeSH term(s)	Basic Reproduction Number ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Communicable Disease Control/standards ; Communicable Disease Control/trends ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data ; Hospitalization/trends ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Social Isolation
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-08-26
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2553671-0
ISSN	2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
ISSN (online)	2041-1723
ISSN	2041-1723
DOI	10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

Order via subito

Article: Real-time projections of cholera outbreaks through data assimilation and rainfall forecasting

Pasetto, Damiano / Andrea Rinaldo / Enrico Bertuzzo / Flavio Finger

Advances in water resources. 2017 Oct., v. 108

2017

Abstract: Although treatment for cholera is well-known and cheap, outbreaks in epidemic regions still exact high death tolls mostly due to the unpreparedness of health care infrastructures to face unforeseen emergencies. In this context, mathematical models for ... ...

Abstract	Although treatment for cholera is well-known and cheap, outbreaks in epidemic regions still exact high death tolls mostly due to the unpreparedness of health care infrastructures to face unforeseen emergencies. In this context, mathematical models for the prediction of the evolution of an ongoing outbreak are of paramount importance. Here, we test a real-time forecasting framework that readily integrates new information as soon as available and periodically issues an updated forecast. The spread of cholera is modeled by a spatially-explicit scheme that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks. The framework presents two major innovations for cholera modeling: the use of a data assimilation technique, specifically an ensemble Kalman filter, to update both state variables and parameters based on the observations, and the use of rainfall forecasts to force the model. The exercise of simulating the state of the system and the predictive capabilities of the novel tools, set at the initial phase of the 2010 Haitian cholera outbreak using only information that was available at that time, serves as a benchmark. Our results suggest that the assimilation procedure with the sequential update of the parameters outperforms calibration schemes based on Markov chain Monte Carlo. Moreover, in a forecasting mode the model usefully predicts the spatial incidence of cholera at least one month ahead. The performance decreases for longer time horizons yet allowing sufficient time to plan for deployment of medical supplies and staff, and to evaluate alternative strategies of emergency management.
Keywords	cholera ; death ; health services ; humans ; hydrology ; infrastructure ; Markov chain ; mathematical models ; rain ; water resources ; weather forecasting
Language	English
Dates of publication	2017-10
Size	p. 345-356.
Publishing place	Elsevier Ltd
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	2023320-6
ISSN	1872-9657 ; 0309-1708
ISSN (online)	1872-9657
ISSN	0309-1708
DOI	10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.10.004
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

Order via subito

To top

More links

Kategorien

Order via subito

More links

Kategorien

Order via subito

More links

Kategorien

In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

Order via subito

More links

Kategorien

Order via subito

More links

Kategorien

Order via subito

More links

Kategorien

Order via subito

More links

Kategorien

Order via subito

More links

Kategorien

In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

Order via subito

More links

Kategorien

Order via subito

More links

Kategorien

Order via subito