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  1. AU="Philippe Ciais"
  2. AU="Suprasert, Prapaporn"
  3. AU="Chang, Yinshui"
  4. AU="de Oliveira, Alexandre Adalardo"
  5. AU="D'Angelo Exeni, Maria Eugenia"
  6. AU="Godoy, Carla"

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  1. Article ; Online: Relative benefits of allocating land to bioenergy crops and forests vary by region

    Irina Melnikova / Philippe Ciais / Katsumasa Tanaka / Nicolas Vuichard / Olivier Boucher

    Communications Earth & Environment, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2023  Volume 12

    Abstract: Abstract Carbon dioxide removal is essential for achieving the Paris Agreement targets. Here we compare bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation and reforestation in terms of their carbon removal potentials and impacts on ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Carbon dioxide removal is essential for achieving the Paris Agreement targets. Here we compare bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation and reforestation in terms of their carbon removal potentials and impacts on carbon cycle and surface climate under an overshoot pathway using Earth System Model simulations. Althought initially BECCS can remove more carbon in allocated areas, carbon dioxide emissions from land use change regionally offset the benefits of BECCS compared to afforestation, depending on the carbon capture and storage efficiency and timescales required to achieve mitigation targets. Furthermore, BECCS may cause local cooling in high- and mid-latitude subregions of the Northern Hemisphere dominated by albedo effects, while afforestation causes local cooling in subtropical and tropical subregions through non-radiative mechanisms. The decision to allocate land to bioenergy crops or forests should account for their respective carbon removal potentials, modulated by carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks, and the effects on climate.
    Keywords Geology ; QE1-996.5 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: Asymmetrical Precipitation Sensitivity to Temperature Across Global Dry and Wet Regions

    Juan Liang / Xianfeng Liu / Amir AghaKouchak / Philippe Ciais / Bojie Fu

    Earth's Future, Vol 11, Iss 9, Pp n/a-n/a (2023)

    2023  

    Abstract: Abstract Global warming is expected to increase precipitation extremes. However, the response of extreme precipitation to global warming in various climates remains unclear. Here, we analyzed changes in the sensitivities of extreme and mean precipitation ...

    Abstract Abstract Global warming is expected to increase precipitation extremes. However, the response of extreme precipitation to global warming in various climates remains unclear. Here, we analyzed changes in the sensitivities of extreme and mean precipitation to temperature across the dry and wet regions of the world during 1960–1999 and 2060–2099 using global climate models. Both extreme and mean precipitation exhibited similar spatial patterns; however, the magnitude of sensitivity for extreme precipitation was approximately three times higher (19%/K) than for mean precipitation (6%/K). A higher precipitation sensitivity to temperature was observed in the dry regions than in the wet regions. Dry regions exhibited a four‐ to five‐fold higher temperature sensitivity for mean precipitation, and marginally higher temperature sensitivity for extreme precipitation than wet regions. These findings highlight the importance of implementing adaptive strategies to alleviate the effects of global warming on dryland ecosystems.
    Keywords temperature sensitivity ; global warming ; drylands ; extreme precipitation ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350 ; Ecology ; QH540-549.5
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-09-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Wiley
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article ; Online: French crop yield, area and production data for ten staple crops from 1900 to 2018 at county resolution

    Bernhard Schauberger / Hiromi Kato / Tomomichi Kato / Daiki Watanabe / Philippe Ciais

    Scientific Data, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2022  Volume 6

    Abstract: Measurement(s) crop yield • crop area • crop production Technology Type(s) digital curation Sample Characteristic - Environment agricultural field Sample Characteristic - Location Metropolitan France Machine-accessible metadata file describing the ... ...

    Abstract Measurement(s) crop yield • crop area • crop production Technology Type(s) digital curation Sample Characteristic - Environment agricultural field Sample Characteristic - Location Metropolitan France Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17213105
    Keywords Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-02-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Uncovering the Past and Future Climate Drivers of Wheat Yield Shocks in Europe With Machine Learning

    Peng Zhu / Rose Abramoff / David Makowski / Philippe Ciais

    Earth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 5, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)

    2021  

    Abstract: Abstract Recently, yield shocks due to extreme weather events and their consequences for food security have become a major concern. Although long yield time series are available in Europe, few studies have been conducted to analyze them in order to ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Recently, yield shocks due to extreme weather events and their consequences for food security have become a major concern. Although long yield time series are available in Europe, few studies have been conducted to analyze them in order to investigate the impact of adverse climate events on yield shocks under current and future climate conditions. Here we designated the lowest 10th percentile of the relative yield anomaly as yield shock and analyzed subnational wheat yield shocks across Europe during the last four decades. We applied a data‐driven attribution framework to quantify primary climate drivers of wheat yield shock probability based on machine learning and game theory, and used this framework to infer the most critical climate variables that will contribute to yield shocks in the future, under two climate change scenarios. During the period 1980–2018, our attribution analysis showed that 32% of the observed wheat yield shocks were primarily driven by water limitation, making it the leading climate driver. Projection to future climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 suggested an increased risk of yield shock and a paradigm shift from water limitation dominated yield shock to extreme warming induced shocks over 2070–2099: 46% and 54% of areas were primarily driven by extreme warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. A similar analysis conducted on yields simulated by an ensemble of crop models showed that models can capture the negative impact of low water supply but missed the impact of excess water. These discrepancies between observed and simulated yield data call for improvement in crop models.
    Keywords attribution analysis ; extreme climate ; extreme warming ; random forest ; winter wheat ; yield shock ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350 ; Ecology ; QH540-549.5
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-05-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Wiley
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article ; Online: Strong direct and indirect influences of climate change on water yield confirmed by the Budyko framework

    Hui Yang / Hao Xu / Chris Huntingford / Philippe Ciais / Shilong Piao

    Geography and Sustainability, Vol 2, Iss 4, Pp 281-

    2021  Volume 287

    Abstract: Research findings concerning the main processes influencing water resources differ substantially, and so the topic remains controversial. Recent studies indicate that the changes in water yield, expressed through the n-parameter of Budyko framework, are ... ...

    Abstract Research findings concerning the main processes influencing water resources differ substantially, and so the topic remains controversial. Recent studies indicate that the changes in water yield, expressed through the n-parameter of Budyko framework, are associated with vegetation coverage changes. Here, we use runoff measurements and outputs from 13 dynamic global vegetation models, to investigate the underlying drivers of the n-parameter changes. Unlike previous studies, we instead find that climate change is the primary driver of adjustments on water resources. Changing climatic characteristics, particularly the intensity and seasonality of rainfall, modulates the runoff generation process. Indirect effects of climate change occur through altering vegetation properties, which in turn also impact river flow. We also find that in the arid and sparse vegetation regions, water yield is more sensitive to changes in n-parameter. Thus, the Budyko framework provides a reliable parameter-sparse representation of runoff changes, and reveals that terrestrial water cycle is changing substantially under climate change. This climate forcing requires on-going investigation to generate more refined and reliable projections of future water availability.
    Keywords Water cycle ; Climate change ; Atmospheric CO2 ; Land cover change ; Runoff ; Geography (General) ; G1-922 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Elsevier
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article ; Online: Observed strong atmospheric water constraints on forest photosynthesis using eddy covariance and satellite-based data across the Northern Hemisphere

    Yongxian Su / Xueqin Yang / Pierre Gentine / Fabienne Maignan / Jiali Shang / Philippe Ciais

    International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation, Vol 110, Iss , Pp 102808- (2022)

    2022  

    Abstract: Soil water deficit and high atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) are major environmental limitations on carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, it is still unclear how climate seasonality influences seasonal soil water supply and ... ...

    Abstract Soil water deficit and high atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) are major environmental limitations on carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, it is still unclear how climate seasonality influences seasonal soil water supply and atmospheric water demand, and consequently limits plant photosynthesis. Here, we analyzed the impacts of the seasonal radiation-rainfall coupling on soil moisture limitations versus atmospheric dryness limitations on plant photosynthesis across the Northern Hemisphere north of 15°N, using the eddy covariance data of 83 forest sites and multiple satellite-based data. Our results show that forest photosynthesis is strongly reduced by low soil water availability that is accompanied by a high atmospheric dryness during warm seasons for sites and regions where there is a strong negative covariation between radiation and rainfall availability, which we denote as asynchronous climate. However, under climates with positive covariation between radiation and rainfall availability, i.e. synchronous climate, forest photosynthesis experiences only a small soil water stress, but tends to be limited by high atmospheric dryness during warm seasons. Both the site and regional analyses imply that atmospheric dryness exhibits stronger constraints on forest photosynthesis in synchronous climate over a larger area than in asynchronous climate across the Northern Hemisphere.
    Keywords Atmospheric water constraint ; Soil water constraint ; Forest photosynthesis ; Northern hemisphere ; Climate change ; Physical geography ; GB3-5030 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Elsevier
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  7. Article ; Online: Decarbonising the iron and steel sector for a 2 °C target using inherent waste streams

    Yongqi Sun / Sicong Tian / Philippe Ciais / Zhenzhong Zeng / Jing Meng / Zuotai Zhang

    Nature Communications, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2022  Volume 8

    Abstract: The iron and steel industry is emissions intensive. Here the authors explore its decarbonisation potential based on recovering energy and recycling materials from waste streams in 2020-2050. 28.5% of CO2 emissions under sectoral 2 °C target requirements ... ...

    Abstract The iron and steel industry is emissions intensive. Here the authors explore its decarbonisation potential based on recovering energy and recycling materials from waste streams in 2020-2050. 28.5% of CO2 emissions under sectoral 2 °C target requirements can be reduced in a high-potential pathway.
    Keywords Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article ; Online: Reliance on fossil fuels increases during extreme temperature events in the continental United States

    Wenli Zhao / Biqing Zhu / Steven J. Davis / Philippe Ciais / Chaopeng Hong / Zhu Liu / Pierre Gentine

    Communications Earth & Environment, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2023  Volume 11

    Abstract: Abstract Increasing extreme climate events driven by climate change raise the question of their impacts on the power production system, and implications for renewable versus fossil power supply. Here, using climate reanalysis data and daily electricity ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Increasing extreme climate events driven by climate change raise the question of their impacts on the power production system, and implications for renewable versus fossil power supply. Here, using climate reanalysis data and daily electricity generation (2018–2023), we systematically quantify the impact of extreme climate events, specifically extreme cold events and extreme hot events on United States state-level carbon emissions and on the carbon intensity of electricity. We find that extreme climate events increase the carbon intensity of the energy production, increasing the reliance on fossil-based sources of energy and reducing the capacity of renewables. The states with more renewable electricity generation were also more affected by extreme temperatures. Our results reveal the extent to which the reliability and resilience of the current United States electricity system depends on fossil energy during extreme climate events, and suggest a need for adaptation measures as the country will transition to higher shares of renewable energy while extreme events will become more frequent.
    Keywords Geology ; QE1-996.5 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Article ; Online: Modeling the Vegetation Dynamics of Northern Shrubs and Mosses in the ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model

    Arsène Druel / Philippe Ciais / Gerhard Krinner / Philippe Peylin

    Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol 11, Iss 7, Pp 2020-

    2019  Volume 2035

    Abstract: Abstract Parameterizations of plant competition processes involving shrubs, mosses, grasses, and trees were introduced with the recently implemented shrubs and mosses plant functional types in the ORCHIDEE dynamic global vegetation model in order to ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Parameterizations of plant competition processes involving shrubs, mosses, grasses, and trees were introduced with the recently implemented shrubs and mosses plant functional types in the ORCHIDEE dynamic global vegetation model in order to improve the representation of high latitude vegetation dynamics. Competition is based on light capture for growth, net primary productivity, and survival to cold‐induced mortality during winter. Trees are assumed to outcompete shrubs and grasses for light, and shrubs outcompete grasses. Shrubs are modeled to have a higher survival than trees to extremely cold winters because of thermic protection by snow. The fractional coverage of each plant type is based on their respective net primary productivity and winter mortality of trees and shrubs. Gridded simulations were carried out for the historical period and the 21st century following the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We evaluate the simulated present‐day vegetation with an observation‐based distribution map and literature data of boreal shrubs. The simulation produces a realistic present‐day boreal vegetation distribution, with shrubs, mosses north of trees and grasses. Nevertheless, the model underestimated local shrub expansion compared to observations from selected sites in the Arctic during the last 30 years suggesting missing processes (nutrients and microscale effects). The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections show a substantial decrease of bare soil, an increase in tree and moss cover and an increase of shrub net primary productivity. Finally, the impact of new vegetation types and associated processes is discussed in the context of climate feedbacks.
    Keywords land surface ; modeling ; dynamical vegetation ; boreal ; Arctic greening ; competition ; Physical geography ; GB3-5030 ; Oceanography ; GC1-1581
    Subject code 910 ; 580
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  10. Article ; Online: High temperature sensitivity of monoterpene emissions from global vegetation

    Efstratios Bourtsoukidis / Andrea Pozzer / Jonathan Williams / David Makowski / Josep Peñuelas / Vasileios N. Matthaios / Georgia Lazoglou / Ana Maria Yañez-Serrano / Jos Lelieveld / Philippe Ciais / Mihalis Vrekoussis / Nikos Daskalakis / Jean Sciare

    Communications Earth & Environment, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2024  Volume 10

    Abstract: Abstract Terrestrial vegetation emits vast amounts of monoterpenes into the atmosphere, influencing ecological interactions and atmospheric chemistry. Global emissions are simulated as a function of temperature with a fixed exponential relationship (β ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Terrestrial vegetation emits vast amounts of monoterpenes into the atmosphere, influencing ecological interactions and atmospheric chemistry. Global emissions are simulated as a function of temperature with a fixed exponential relationship (β coefficient) across forest ecosystems and environmental conditions. We applied meta-analysis algorithms on 40 years of published monoterpene emission data and show that relationship between emissions and temperature is more sensitive and intricate than previously thought. Considering the entire dataset, a higher temperature sensitivity (β = 0.13 ± 0.01 °C−1) is derived but with a linear increase with the reported coefficients of determination (R2), indicating that co-occurring environmental factors modify the temperature sensitivity of the emissions that is primarily related to the specific plant functional type (PFT). Implementing a PFT-dependent β in a biogenic emission model, coupled with a chemistry – climate model, demonstrated that atmospheric processes are exceptionally dependent on monoterpene emissions which are subject to amplified variations under rising temperatures.
    Keywords Geology ; QE1-996.5 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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