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Article ; Online: Modeling the impacts of influenza antiviral prophylaxis strategies in nursing homes

Casey Zipfel / Sinead Morris / Prabasaj Paul / Matthew Biggerstaff / Rachel Slayton

Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology, Vol 3, Pp s18-s

2023 Volume 19

Abstract: Background: Antiviral chemoprophylaxis for influenza is recommended in nursing homes to prevent transmission and severe disease among residents with higher risk of severe influenza complications. Interim CDC guidance recommends that long-term care ... ...

Abstract	Background: Antiviral chemoprophylaxis for influenza is recommended in nursing homes to prevent transmission and severe disease among residents with higher risk of severe influenza complications. Interim CDC guidance recommends that long-term care facilities initiate antiviral chemoprophylaxis with oral oseltamivir for all non-ill residents living in the same unit following the start of an outbreak in a facility (ie, ≥2 patients ill within 72 hours and of whom at least 1 resident has laboratory-confirmed influenza). Prophylaxis continues for a minimum of 2 weeks and for at least 7 days after the last laboratory-confirmed case. However, facilities may not strictly adhere to this guidance, with 1 study showing up to 68% of facilities were nonadherent to national guidance (Silva et al 2020). Here, we model the potential impacts of different antiviral prophylaxis strategies. Methods: We developed a susceptible–exposed–asymptomatic–infected–recovered (SEAIR) compartmental model of an average-sized nursing home comprising short-stay residents, long-stay residents, and healthcare personnel (HCP). Persons treated with antiviral chemoprophylaxis were less susceptible to infection, had a lower probability of symptoms if infected, a reduced viral load, and a shortened duration of infectiousness. We included influenza vaccination for residents and HCP through reduced probability of symptomatic infection. Coverage rates were estimated from CDC FluVaxView and CMS COVID-19 nursing home data. As a base case, we modeled a scenario with prophylaxis implemented according to guidance. We varied uptake by residents and HCP (from 10% to 90%), case thresholds for prophylaxis initiation (1–5 cases identified), and timing of prophylaxis cessation: either time dependent (ie, 10–14 days of prophylaxis) or case-dependent (ie, continuing prophylaxis for 1–7 days with no cases). Results: In the scenario based on current guidance, prophylaxis reduced resident cases by 16% and resident hospitalizations by 45%, compared to no prophylaxis (Fig. ...
Keywords	Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	610 ; 360
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-06-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Cambridge University Press
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Decolonization of hospital patients may aid efforts to reduce transmission of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales

Brajendra K. Singh / Prabasaj Paul / Camden D. Gowler / Sujan C. Reddy / Rachel B. Slayton

Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology, Vol 3, Pp s59-s

2023 Volume 60

Abstract: Background: Multimodal approaches are often used to prevent transmission of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens among patients in healthcare settings; understanding the effect of individual interventions is challenging. We designed a model to compare the ... ...

Abstract	Background: Multimodal approaches are often used to prevent transmission of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens among patients in healthcare settings; understanding the effect of individual interventions is challenging. We designed a model to compare the effectiveness of hand hygiene (HH) with or without decolonization in reducing patient colonization with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE). Methods: We developed an agent-based model to represent transmission of CRE in an acute-care hospital comprising 3 general wards and 2 ICUs, each with 20 single-occupancy rooms, located in a community of 85,000 people. The model accounted for the movement of healthcare personnel (HCP), including their visits to patients. CRE dynamics were modeled using a susceptible–infectious–susceptible framework with transmission occurring via HCP–patient contacts. The mean time to clearance of CRE colonization without intervention was 387 days (Zimmerman et al, 2013). Our baseline included a facility-level HH compliance of 30%, with an assumed efficacy of 50%. Contact precautions were employed for patients with CRE-positive cultures with assumed adherence and efficacy of 80% and 50%, respectively. Intervention scenarios included decolonization of culture-positive CRE patients, with a mean time to decolonization of 3 days. We considered 2 hypothetical intervention scenarios: (A) decolonization of patients with the baseline HH compliance and (B) decolonization with a slightly improved HH compliance of 35%. The hospital-level CRE incidence rate was used to compare the results from these intervention scenarios. Results: CRE incidence rates were lower in intervention scenarios than the baseline scenario (Fig. 1). The baseline mean incidence rate was 29.1 per 10,000 patient days. For decolonization with the baseline HH, the mean incidence rate decreased to 14.5 per 10,000 patient days, which is a 50.2% decrease relative to the baseline incidence (Table 1). The decolonization scenario with a slightly improved HH compliance of 35% ...
Keywords	Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	616
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-06-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Cambridge University Press
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Predicting the regional impact of interventions to prevent and contain multidrug-resistant organisms

Samuel Cincotta / Elizabeth Soda / Rachel Slayton / David Ham / Maroya Walters / Prabasaj Paul

Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology, Vol 2, Pp s13-s

2022 Volume 14

Abstract: Background: Multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs), such as carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE), can spread rapidly in a region. Facilities that care for high-acuity patients with long average lengths of stay (eg, long-term acute-care hospitals or ...

Abstract	Background: Multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs), such as carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE), can spread rapidly in a region. Facilities that care for high-acuity patients with long average lengths of stay (eg, long-term acute-care hospitals or LTACHs and ventilator-capable skilled nursing facilities or vSNFs) may amplify this spread. We assessed the impact of interventions on CRE spread within a region individually, bundled, and implemented at different facility types. Methods: We developed a deterministic compartmental model, parametrized using CRE data reported to the NHSN and patient transfer data from the CMS specific to a US state. The model includes the community and the healthcare facilities within the state. Individuals may be either susceptible or infected and infectious. Infected patients determined to have CRE through admission screening or point-prevalence surveys at a facility are placed in a state of lower transmissibility if enhanced infection prevention and control (IPC) practices are in place. Results: Intervention bundles that included periodic point-prevalence surveys and enhanced IPC at high-acuity postacute-care facilities had the greatest impact on regional prevalence 10 years into an outbreak; the benefits of including admission screening and improved interfacility communication were more modest (Fig. 1A). Delaying interventions by 3 years is predicted to result in smaller reductions in prevalence (Fig. 1B). Increasing the frequency of point-prevalence surveys from biannually to quarterly resulted in a substantial relative reduction in prevalence (from 25% to 44%) if conducted from the start of an outbreak. IPC improvements in vSNFs resulted in greater relative reductions than in LTACHs. Admission screening at LTACHs and vSNFs was predicted to have a greater impact on prevalence if in place prior to CRE introduction (~20% reduction), and the impact decreased by approximately half if implementation was delayed until 3 years after CRE introduction. In contrast, the effect of ...
Keywords	Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	360
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-07-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Cambridge University Press
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Evaluation of different types of face masks to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2

Brian M. Gurbaxani / Andrew N. Hill / Prabasaj Paul / Pragati V. Prasad / Rachel B. Slayton

Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-

a modeling study

2022 Volume 11

Abstract: Abstract We expanded a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with complex, age-structured transmission and with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on ... ...

Abstract	Abstract We expanded a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with complex, age-structured transmission and with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in the United States. The model was also improved to allow realistic age-structured transmission with a pre-specified R0 of transmission, and to include more compartments and parameters, e.g. for groups such as detected and undetected asymptomatic infectious cases who mask up at different rates. When masks are used at typically-observed population rates of 80% for those ≥ 65 years and 60% for those < 65 years, face masks are associated with 69% (cloth) to 78% (medical procedure mask) reductions in cumulative COVID-19 infections and 82% (cloth) to 87% (medical procedure mask) reductions in related deaths over a 6-month timeline in the model, assuming a basic reproductive number of 2.5. If cloth or medical procedure masks’ source control and wearer protection efficacies are boosted about 30% each to 84% and 60% by cloth over medical procedure masking, fitters, or braces, the COVID-19 basic reproductive number of 2.5 could be reduced to an effective reproductive number ≤ 1.0, and from 6.0 to 2.3 for a variant of concern similar to delta (B.1.617.2). For variants of concern similar to omicron (B.1.1.529) or the sub-lineage BA.2, modeled reductions in effective reproduction number due to similar high quality, high prevalence mask wearing is more modest (to 3.9 and 5.0 from an R0 = 10.0 and 13.0, respectively). None-the-less, the ratio of incident risk for masked vs. non-masked populations still shows a benefit of wearing masks even with the higher R0 variants.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nature Portfolio
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Quantifying the roles of vomiting, diarrhea, and residents vs. staff in norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home outbreaks.

Carly Adams / David Young / Paul A Gastañaduy / Prabasaj Paul / Zach Marsh / Aron J Hall / Benjamin A Lopman

PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 16, Iss 3, p e

2020 Volume 1007271

Abstract: The role of individual case characteristics, such as symptoms or demographics, in norovirus transmissibility is poorly understood. Six nursing home norovirus outbreaks occurring in South Carolina, U.S. from 2014 to 2016 were examined. We aimed to ... ...

Abstract	The role of individual case characteristics, such as symptoms or demographics, in norovirus transmissibility is poorly understood. Six nursing home norovirus outbreaks occurring in South Carolina, U.S. from 2014 to 2016 were examined. We aimed to quantify the contribution of symptoms and other case characteristics in norovirus transmission using the reproduction number (REi) as an estimate of individual case infectivity and to examine how transmission changes over the course of an outbreak. Individual estimates of REi were calculated using a maximum likelihood procedure to infer the average number of secondary cases generated by each case. The associations between case characteristics and REi were estimated using a weighted multivariate mixed linear model. Outbreaks began with one to three index case(s) with large estimated REi's (range: 1.48 to 8.70) relative to subsequent cases. Of the 209 cases, 155 (75%) vomited, 164 (79%) had diarrhea, and 158 (76%) were nursing home residents (vs. staff). Cases who vomited infected 2.12 (95% CI: 1.68, 2.68) times the number of individuals as non-vomiters, cases with diarrhea infected 1.39 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.87) times the number of individuals as cases without diarrhea, and resident-cases infected 1.53 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.02) times the number of individuals as staff-cases. Index cases tended to be residents (vs. staff) who vomited and infected considerably more secondary cases compared to non-index cases. Results suggest that individuals, particularly residents, who vomit are more infectious and tend to drive norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home norovirus outbreaks. While diarrhea also plays a role in norovirus transmission, it is to a lesser degree than vomiting in these settings. Results lend support for prevention and control measures that focus on cases who vomit, particularly if those cases are residents.
Keywords	Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Subject code	360
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-03-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Quantifying the roles of vomiting, diarrhea, and residents vs. staff in norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home outbreaks

Carly Adams / David Young / Paul A Gastañaduy / Prabasaj Paul / Zach Marsh / Aron J Hall / Benjamin A Lopman

Abstract: AbstractThe role of individual case characteristics, such as symptoms or demographics, in norovirus transmissibility is poorly understood. Six nursing home norovirus outbreaks occurring in South Carolina, U.S. from 2014 to 2016 were examined. We aimed to ...

Abstract	AbstractThe role of individual case characteristics, such as symptoms or demographics, in norovirus transmissibility is poorly understood. Six nursing home norovirus outbreaks occurring in South Carolina, U.S. from 2014 to 2016 were examined. We aimed to quantify the contribution of symptoms and other case characteristics in norovirus transmission using the reproduction number (REi) as an estimate of individual case infectivity and to examine how transmission changes over the course of an outbreak. Individual estimates of REi were calculated using a maximum likelihood procedure to infer the average number of secondary cases generated by each case. The associations between case characteristics and REi were estimated using a multivariate mixed linear model. Outbreaks began with one to three index case(s) with large estimated REi’s (range: 1.48 to 8.70) relative to subsequent cases. Of the 209 cases, 155 (75%) vomited, 164 (79%) had diarrhea, and 158 (76%) were nursing home residents (vs. staff). Cases who vomited infected 2.74 (95% CI: 1.90, 3.94) more individuals than non-vomiters, cases with diarrhea infected 1.62 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.41) more individuals than cases without diarrhea, and resident-cases infected 1.69 (95% CI: 1.18, 2.42) more individuals than staff-cases. Index cases tended to be residents (vs. staff) who vomited and infected considerably more secondary cases compared to non-index cases. Results suggest that individuals, particularly residents, who vomit are more infectious and tend to drive norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home norovirus outbreaks. While diarrhea also plays a role in norovirus transmission, it is to a lesser degree than vomiting in these settings. Results lend support for prevention and control measures that focus on cases who vomit, particularly if those cases are residents.Author summaryThe majority of all norovirus outbreaks reported to the CDC occur in long-term care facilities (LTCFs), including nursing homes, where older residents are at risk for more severe or prolonged infection. Because there is currently no publicly available norovirus vaccine, sound control measures are key to controlling norovirus outbreaks, but there is little evidence that standard control measures are effective in reducing the size and/or duration of LTCF norovirus outbreaks. Hence, studies leading to a better understanding of disease spread and prevention of additional cases, and thus more effective control measures, are needed. To this end, we aimed to quantify factors associated with norovirus transmission and to examine how transmission changes over the course of an outbreak. We show that vomiting and, to a lesser extent, diarrhea are critical in initiating and sustaining norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home norovirus outbreaks. We also show that nursing home residents, rather than staff, are the primary drivers of transmission. Results suggest that control measures focusing on cases who vomit, particularly if those cases are residents, would be most effective at curtailing norovirus transmission in these settings.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	biorxiv
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/707356
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Reducing travel-related SARS-CoV-2 transmission with layered mitigation measures

Michael A. Johansson / Hannah Wolford / Prabasaj Paul / Pamela S. Diaz / Tai-Ho Chen / Clive M. Brown / Martin S. Cetron / Francisco Alvarado-Ramy

BMC Medicine, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-

symptom monitoring, quarantine, and testing

2021 Volume 13

Abstract: Abstract Background Balancing the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with the resumption of travel is a global priority. Current recommendations include mitigation measures before, during, and after travel. Pre- and post-travel strategies including ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Balancing the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with the resumption of travel is a global priority. Current recommendations include mitigation measures before, during, and after travel. Pre- and post-travel strategies including symptom monitoring, antigen or nucleic acid amplification testing, and quarantine can be combined in multiple ways considering different trade-offs in feasibility, adherence, effectiveness, cost, and adverse consequences. Methods We used a mathematical model to analyze the expected effectiveness of symptom monitoring, testing, and quarantine under different estimates of the infectious period, test-positivity relative to time of infection, and test sensitivity to reduce the risk of transmission from infected travelers during and after travel. Results If infection occurs 0–7 days prior to travel, immediate isolation following symptom onset prior to or during travel reduces risk of transmission while traveling by 30–35%. Pre-departure testing can further reduce risk, with testing closer to the time of travel being optimal even if test sensitivity is lower than an earlier test. For example, testing on the day of departure can reduce risk while traveling by 44–72%. For transmission risk after travel with infection time up to 7 days prior to arrival at the destination, isolation based on symptom monitoring reduced introduction risk at the destination by 42–56%. A 14-day quarantine after arrival, without symptom monitoring or testing, can reduce post-travel risk by 96–100% on its own. However, a shorter quarantine of 7 days combined with symptom monitoring and a test on day 5–6 after arrival is also effective (97--100%) at reducing introduction risk and is less burdensome, which may improve adherence. Conclusions Quarantine is an effective measure to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from travelers and can be enhanced by the addition of symptom monitoring and testing. Optimal test timing depends on the effectiveness of quarantine: with low adherence or no quarantine, ...
Keywords	SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19 ; Travel ; Testing ; Quarantine ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	380
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and superspreading in Salt Lake County, Utah, March-May 2020.

PLoS ONE, Vol 18, Iss 6, p e

2023 Volume 0275125

Abstract: Background Understanding the drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission can inform the development of interventions. We evaluated transmission identified by contact tracing investigations between March-May 2020 in Salt Lake County, Utah, to quantify the impact ... ...

Abstract	Background Understanding the drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission can inform the development of interventions. We evaluated transmission identified by contact tracing investigations between March-May 2020 in Salt Lake County, Utah, to quantify the impact of this intervention and identify risk factors for transmission. Methods RT-PCR positive and untested symptomatic contacts were classified as confirmed and probable secondary case-patients, respectively. We compared the number of case-patients and close contacts generated by different groups, and used logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with transmission. Results Data were collected on 184 index case-patients and up to six generations of contacts. Of 1,499 close contacts, 374 (25%) were classified as secondary case-patients. Decreased transmission odds were observed for contacts aged <18 years (OR = 0.55 [95% CI: 0.38-0.79]), versus 18-44 years, and for workplace (OR = 0.36 [95% CI: 0.23-0.55]) and social (OR = 0.44 [95% CI: 0.28-0.66]) contacts, versus household contacts. Higher transmission odds were observed for case-patient's spouses than other household contacts (OR = 2.25 [95% CI: 1.52-3.35]). Compared to index case-patients identified in the community, secondary case-patients identified through contract-tracing generated significantly fewer close contacts and secondary case-patients of their own. Transmission was heterogeneous, with 41% of index case-patients generating 81% of directly-linked secondary case-patients. Conclusions Given sufficient resources and complementary public health measures, contact tracing can contain known chains of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Transmission is associated with age and exposure setting, and can be highly variable, with a few infections generating a disproportionately high share of onward transmission.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	610
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Multi-country cross-sectional study of colonization with multidrug-resistant organisms

BMC Public Health, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-

protocol and methods for the Antibiotic Resistance in Communities and Hospitals (ARCH) studies

2021 Volume 9

Abstract: Abstract Background Antimicrobial resistance is a global health emergency. Persons colonized with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) are at risk for developing subsequent multidrug-resistant infections, as colonization represents an important ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Antimicrobial resistance is a global health emergency. Persons colonized with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) are at risk for developing subsequent multidrug-resistant infections, as colonization represents an important precursor to invasive infection. Despite reports documenting the worldwide dissemination of MDROs, fundamental questions remain regarding the burden of resistance, metrics to measure prevalence, and determinants of spread. We describe a multi-site colonization survey protocol that aims to quantify the population-based prevalence and associated risk factors for colonization with high-threat MDROs among community dwelling participants and patients admitted to hospitals within a defined population-catchment area. Methods Researchers in five countries (Bangladesh, Chile, Guatemala, Kenya, and India) will conduct a cross-sectional, population-based prevalence survey consisting of a risk factor questionnaire and collection of specimens to evaluate colonization with three high-threat MDROs: extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (ESCrE), carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Healthy adults residing in a household within the sampling area will be enrolled in addition to eligible hospitalized adults. Colonizing isolates of these MDROs will be compared by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) to routinely collected invasive clinical isolates, where available, to determine potential pathogenicity. A colonizing MDRO isolate will be categorized as potentially pathogenic if the MLST pattern of the colonizing isolate matches the MLST pattern of an invasive clinical isolate. The outcomes of this study will be estimates of the population-based prevalence of colonization with ESCrE, CRE, and MRSA; determination of the proportion of colonizing ESCrE, CRE, and MRSA with pathogenic characteristics based on MLST; identification of factors independently associated with ESCrE, CRE, and MRSA colonization; and ...
Keywords	MDRO ; Antimicrobial resistance ; Global health security ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	910
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-07-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: National physical activity surveillance

John D. Omura, MD / Susan A. Carlson, PhD / Prabasaj Paul, PhD / Kathleen B. Watson, PhD / Janet E. Fulton, PhD

Preventive Medicine Reports, Vol 5, Iss C, Pp 124-

Users of wearable activity monitors as a potential data source

2017 Volume 126

Abstract: The objective of this study was to assess usage patterns of wearable activity monitors among US adults and how user characteristics might influence physical activity estimates from this type of sample. We analyzed data on 3367 respondents to the 2015 ... ...

Abstract	The objective of this study was to assess usage patterns of wearable activity monitors among US adults and how user characteristics might influence physical activity estimates from this type of sample. We analyzed data on 3367 respondents to the 2015 HealthStyles survey, an annual consumer mail panel survey conducted on a nationwide sample. Approximately 1 in 8 respondents (12.5%) reported currently using a wearable activity monitor. Current use varied by sex, age, and education level. Use increased with physical activity level from 4.3% for inactive adults to 17.4% for active adults. Overall, 49.9% of all adults met the aerobic physical activity guideline, while this prevalence was 69.5% among current activity monitor users. Our findings suggest that current users of wearable activity monitors are not representative of the overall US population. Estimates of physical activity levels using data from wearable activity monitors users may be an overestimate and therefore data from users alone may have a limited role in physical activity surveillance.
Keywords	Physical activity ; Surveillance ; Activity monitor ; Epidemiology ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	302
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-03-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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