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Article ; Online: Aseismic Creep, Coseismic Slip, and Postseismic Relaxation on Faults in Volcanic Areas

Nicola Alessandro Pino / Stefano Carlino / Lisa Beccaro / Prospero De Martino

Remote Sensing, Vol 15, Iss 1791, p

The Case of Ischia Island

2023 Volume 1791

Abstract: We performed a joined multitemporal and multiscale analysis of ground vertical movements around the main seismogenic source of Ischia island (Southern Italy) that, during historical and recent time, generated the most catastrophic earthquakes on the ... ...

Abstract	We performed a joined multitemporal and multiscale analysis of ground vertical movements around the main seismogenic source of Ischia island (Southern Italy) that, during historical and recent time, generated the most catastrophic earthquakes on the island, in its northern sector (Casamicciola fault). In particular, we considered InSAR (2015–2019) and ground-levelling data (1987–2010), attempting to better define the source that caused the recent 2017 earthquake and interpret its occurrence in the framework of a long-term behavior of the fault responsible for the major historical earthquakes in Casamicciola. Our results unambiguously constrain the location and the kinematics of the 2017 rupture and further confirm the presence of a relatively large sliding area west of the 2017 surface break. Overall, the studied seismogenic fault reveals a complex dynamic, moving differentially and aseismically in the pre- and post-seismic event, in response to the long-term subsidence of the central sector of the island, dominated by Mt. Epomeo. The fault segment that slipped coseismically also is evidence of post-seismic viscous relaxation. The long-term differential vertical movement on the apparently creeping eastern sector of the Casamicciola fault provides an estimate of the slip rate occurring on the fault (0.82 mm/y −1 ). The analysis of the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the known historical earthquakes reveals that this rate is consistent with the recurrence of the earthquakes that occurred during at least the past three centuries and suggests that the time to the next seismic event at Casamicciola might be a few decades. More generally, our findings provide evidence of the link between subsidence and earthquakes in volcanic areas indicating, in this case, a high hazard for the island of Ischia. Results might be also useful for characterizing capable faulting in similar volcano-tectonic settings worldwide.
Keywords	Ischia island ; aseismic sleep ; subsidence ; fault creep ; earthquakes ; viscosity ; Science ; Q
Subject code	550
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Wavelet-like denoising of GNSS data through machine learning. Application to the time series of the Campi Flegrei volcanic area (Southern Italy)

Rolando Carbonari / Umberto Riccardi / Prospero De Martino / Gianpaolo Cecere / Rosa Di Maio

Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk, Vol 14, Iss

2023 Volume 1

Abstract: AbstractThe great potential of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) in monitoring ground deformation is widely recognized. As with other geophysical data, GNSS time series can be significantly noisy, hiding elusive ground deformation signals. ... ...

Abstract	AbstractThe great potential of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) in monitoring ground deformation is widely recognized. As with other geophysical data, GNSS time series can be significantly noisy, hiding elusive ground deformation signals. Several denoising techniques have been proposed to improve the signal-to-noise ratio over the years. One of the most effective denoising techniques has been proved to be multi-resolution decomposition through the discrete wavelet transform. However, wavelet analysis requires long data sets to be effective, as well as long computation times, that hinder its use as a real or near real-time monitoring tool. We propose training by a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to perform the equivalent of wavelet analysis to overcome these limitations. Once trained, the CNN model provides answers within seconds, making it feasible as a real-time data analysis tool. Our Machine Learning algorithm is tested on daily GNSS time series collected in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), which is a highly volcanic risk area. Without significant gaps, the retrieved RMSE and R2 values vary in the ranges 0.65–0.98 and 0.06–0.52 cm, respectively. These results are encouraging, as they hint at the possibility of applying this methodology in more effective real-time monitoring solutions for active volcanoes.
Keywords	GNSS time series ; neural networks ; machine learning ; volcano monitoring ; Campi Flegrei ; Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ; TD1-1066 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350 ; Risk in industry. Risk management ; HD61
Subject code	006
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Taylor & Francis Group
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The Ground Deformation History of the Neapolitan Volcanic Area (Campi Flegrei Caldera, Somma–Vesuvius Volcano, and Ischia Island) from 20 Years of Continuous GPS Observations (2000–2019)

Prospero De Martino / Mario Dolce / Giuseppe Brandi / Giovanni Scarpato / Umberto Tammaro

Remote Sensing, Vol 13, Iss 2725, p

2021 Volume 2725

Abstract: The Neapolitan volcanic area includes three active and high-risk volcanoes: Campi Flegrei caldera, Somma–Vesuvius, and Ischia island. The Campi Flegrei volcanic area is a typical example of a resurgent caldera, characterized by intense uplift periods ... ...

Abstract	The Neapolitan volcanic area includes three active and high-risk volcanoes: Campi Flegrei caldera, Somma–Vesuvius, and Ischia island. The Campi Flegrei volcanic area is a typical example of a resurgent caldera, characterized by intense uplift periods followed by subsidence phases (bradyseism). After about 21 years of subsidence following the 1982–1984 unrest, a new inflation period started in 2005 and, with increasing rates over time, is ongoing. The overall uplift from 2005 to December 2019 is about 65 cm. This paper provides the history of the recent Campi Flegrei caldera unrest and an overview of the ground deformation patterns of the Somma–Vesuvius and Ischia volcanoes from continuous GPS observations. In the 2000–2019 time span, the GPS time series allowed the continuous and accurate tracking of ground and seafloor deformation of the whole volcanic area. With the aim of improving the research on volcano dynamics and hazard assessment, the full dataset of the GPS time series from the Neapolitan volcanic area from January 2000 to December 2019 is presented and made available to the scientific community.
Keywords	GPS time series ; Campi Flegrei caldera ; Vesuvius ; Ischia island ; ground deformation monitoring ; Science ; Q
Subject code	550
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-07-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Thirty years of volcano geodesy from space at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Marco Polcari / Sven Borgstrom / Carlo Del Gaudio / Prospero De Martino / Ciro Ricco / Valeria Siniscalchi / Elisa Trasatti

Scientific Data, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2022 Volume 13

Abstract: Measurement(s) ground deformation process Technology Type(s) satellite imaging of a planet Factor Type(s) Satellite Line-of-Sight Displacement Sample Characteristic - Environment ground deformation process Sample Characteristic - Location Campi ... ...

Abstract	Measurement(s) ground deformation process Technology Type(s) satellite imaging of a planet Factor Type(s) Satellite Line-of-Sight Displacement Sample Characteristic - Environment ground deformation process Sample Characteristic - Location Campi Flegrei
Keywords	Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nature Portfolio
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Defining the Pre-Eruptive States of Active Volcanoes for Improving Eruption Forecasting

Mauro Rosi / Valerio Acocella / Raffaello Cioni / Francesca Bianco / Antonio Costa / Prospero De Martino / Guido Giordano / Salvatore Inguaggiato

Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol

2022 Volume 10

Abstract: A crucial feature to manage a volcanic crisis is the ability of volcanologists to promptly detect an impending eruption. This is often affected by significant uncertainty, mainly for the difficulty in interpreting the monitoring signals in terms of the ... ...

Abstract	A crucial feature to manage a volcanic crisis is the ability of volcanologists to promptly detect an impending eruption. This is often affected by significant uncertainty, mainly for the difficulty in interpreting the monitoring signals in terms of the exact timing of a possible eruption. Here we contribute to this problem, focusing on the states of active volcanoes with closed conduit, as deduced from monitoring data. Four main states can be identified. In the quiescence state 1) the monitoring data lie on a baseline, suggesting the lack of shallow magma/fluid movement. The unrest state is highlighted by minor 2) to major 3) variations in the intensity and rate of monitoring data; in both cases, radial ground deformation pattern and non-migrating seismicity imply shallow magma and/or fluid accumulation. The state of impending eruption 4) is characterised by non-radial, asymmetric ground deformation pattern and migrating seismicity, which suggest that magma approaches the surface through a propagating dyke. As early recognition of this distinctive state is crucial for timely eruption forecast, monitoring activity should be aimed at its prompt detection. The application of this rationale to two types of active volcanoes in densely inhabited areas, a restless caldera (Campi Flegrei) and a quiescent stratovolcano (Vesuvio), highlights its feasibility and importance in eruption forecasting. This rationale may foster a general reference framework to be adopted in case of unrest, supporting in interpreting the monitoring data, as well as more effective: 1) operationally-oriented, monitoring system; 2) probabilistic forecast; 3) use of volcanic alert levels.
Keywords	volcano unrest ; magma accumulation ; dyke propagation ; eruption ; volcano monitoring ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The Volcano-Tectonics of the Northern Sector of Ischia Island Caldera (Southern Italy)

Stefano Carlino / Alessandro Sbrana / Nicola Alessandro Pino / Paola Marianelli / Giuseppe Pasquini / Prospero De Martino / Vincenzo De Novellis

Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol

Resurgence, Subsidence and Earthquakes

2022 Volume 10

Abstract: The island of Ischia, an active volcanic field emerging in the western sector of the Gulf of Naples (Southern Italy), represents an archetypal case of caldera that underwent a very large resurgence related to the intrusion of a shallow magma body. The ... ...

Abstract	The island of Ischia, an active volcanic field emerging in the western sector of the Gulf of Naples (Southern Italy), represents an archetypal case of caldera that underwent a very large resurgence related to the intrusion of a shallow magma body. The resurgence culminated with the formation of a structural high in the central sector of the island, i.e., the Mt. Epomeo block. This is bordered by a system of faults along which volcanic activity occurred up to 1302 A.D., and damaging earthquakes were generated in historical and recent time. The seismicity is located prevalently in the northern sector of the island and appears to be correlated with the most recent phase (<5 ka) of ground movement (subsidence), although the mechanism of earthquakes’ generation is still debated. By jointly analyzing offshore and onshore data (seismic profile and stratigraphy wells, respectively) and new petrological and geochemical data related to the most recent phase of volcano-tectonic activity, we develop a geological and structural layout of the northern sector of the island. In particular, we identify the seismogenic fault associated with the historical and recent destructive earthquakes of Ischia. This fault formed in the northern sector of the island during the final stage of the resurgence. We also propose a conceptual volcano-tectonic model of the northern sector of the Ischia Island, depicting the displacement of the fault zones in the off-shore area and the possible mechanism of stress loading and release in the on-shore zone, which is mainly driven by the subsidence of the Mt. Epomeo block. Our results are crucial for evaluating the dynamics of the seismogenic structures in the framework of the general subsidence of the island, as well as the related seismic hazard.
Keywords	Ischia island ; caldera resurgence ; subsidence ; earthquakes ; faults ; horst-graben ; Science ; Q
Subject code	550 ; 910
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-03-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

Andrea Bevilacqua / Prospero De Martino / Flora Giudicepietro / Patrizia Ricciolino / Abani Patra / E. Bruce Pitman / Marcus Bursik / Barry Voight / Franco Flandoli / Giovanni Macedonio / Augusto Neri

Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2022 Volume 24

Abstract: Abstract Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90–97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40–80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently—the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively for the vertical (RITE GPS) and the horizontal (ACAE GPS) components. In addition, all annual rates show alternating speed-ups and slow-downs, consistent between the signals. We find seven major rate maxima since 2000, one every 2.8–3.5 years, with secondary maxima at fractions of the intervals. A cycle with longer period of 6.5–9 years is also identified. Finally, we apply the probabilistic failure forecast method, a nonlinear regression that calculates the theoretical time limit of the signals going to infinity (interpreted here as a critical state potentially reached by the volcano), conditional on the continuation of the observed nonlinear accelerations. Since 2000, we perform a retrospective analysis of the temporal evolution of these forecasts which highlight the periods of more intense acceleration. The failure forecast method applied on the seismic count from 2001 to 2020 produces upper time limits of [0, 3, 11] years (corresponding to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles, respectively), significantly shorter than those ...
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	550
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nature Portfolio
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Four Years of Continuous Seafloor Displacement Measurements in the Campi Flegrei Caldera

Prospero De Martino / Sergio Guardato / Gian Paolo Donnarumma / Mario Dolce / Tiziana Trombetti / Francesco Chierici / Giovanni Macedonio / Laura Beranzoli / Giovanni Iannaccone

Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol

2020 Volume 8

Abstract: We present 4 years of continuous seafloor deformation measurements carried out in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), one of the most hazardous and populated volcanic areas in the world. The seafloor sector of the caldera has been monitored since ...

Abstract	We present 4 years of continuous seafloor deformation measurements carried out in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), one of the most hazardous and populated volcanic areas in the world. The seafloor sector of the caldera has been monitored since early 2016 by the MEDUSA marine research infrastructure, consisting of four instrumented buoys installed where sea depth is less than 100 m. Each MEDUSA buoy is equipped with a cabled, seafloor module with geophysical and oceanographic sensors and a subaerial GPS station providing seafloor deformation and other environmental measures. Since April 2016, the GPS vertical displacements at the four buoys show a continuous uplift of the seafloor with cumulative measured uplift ranging between 8 and 20 cm. Despite the data being affected by environmental noise associated with sea and meteorological conditions, the horizontal GPS displacements on the buoys show a trend coherent with a radial deformation pattern. We use jointly the GPS horizontal and vertical velocities of seafloor and on-land deformations for modeling the volcanic source, finding that a spherical source fits best the GPS data. The geodetic data produced by MEDUSA has now been integrated with the data flow of other monitoring networks deployed on land at Campi Flegrei.
Keywords	seafloor geodesy ; volcano monitoring ; Campi Flegrei caldera ; Global Positioning System ; time series ; buoy ; Science ; Q
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: GPS time series at Campi Flegrei caldera (2000-2013)

Prospero De Martino / Umberto Tammaro / Francesco Obrizzo

Annals of Geophysics, Vol 57, Iss

2014 Volume 2

Abstract: The Campi Flegrei caldera is an active volcanic system associated to a high volcanic risk, and represents a well known and peculiar example of ground deformations (bradyseism), characterized by intense uplift periods, followed by subsidence phases with ... ...

Abstract	The Campi Flegrei caldera is an active volcanic system associated to a high volcanic risk, and represents a well known and peculiar example of ground deformations (bradyseism), characterized by intense uplift periods, followed by subsidence phases with some episodic superimposed mini-uplifts. Ground deformation is an important volcanic precursor, and, its continuous monitoring, is one of the main tool for short time forecast of eruptive activity. This paper provides an overview of the continuous GPS monitoring of the Campi Flegrei caldera from January 2000 to July 2013, including network operations, data recording and processing, and data products. In this period the GPS time series allowed continuous and accurate tracking of ground deformation of the area. Seven main uplift episodes were detected, and during each uplift period, the recurrent horizontal displacement pattern, radial from the “caldera center”, suggests no significant change in deformation source geometry and location occurs. The complete archive of GPS time series at Campi Flegrei area is reported in the Supplementary materials. These data can be usefull for the scientific community in improving the research on Campi Flegrei caldera dynamic and hazard assessment.
Keywords	GPS ; Time series ; Campi Flegrei ; Ground deformation ; Geophysics. Cosmic physics ; QC801-809 ; Physics ; QC1-999 ; Science ; Q
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The 2019 Eruptive Activity at Stromboli Volcano

Mario Mattia / Bellina Di Lieto / Gaetana Ganci / Valentina Bruno / Pierdomenico Romano / Francesco Ciancitto / Prospero De Martino / Salvatore Gambino / Marco Aloisi / Mariangela Sciotto / Roberto Scarpa / Carmelo Ferlito

Remote Sensing, Vol 13, Iss 4064, p

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Reveal Hidden Features of the “Unexpected” 3 July Paroxysm

2021 Volume 4064

Abstract: In July and August 2019, Stromboli volcano underwent two dangerous paroxysms previously considered “unexpected” because of the absence of significant changes in usually monitored parameters. We applied a multidisciplinary approach to search for signals ... ...

Abstract	In July and August 2019, Stromboli volcano underwent two dangerous paroxysms previously considered “unexpected” because of the absence of significant changes in usually monitored parameters. We applied a multidisciplinary approach to search for signals able to indicate the possibility of larger explosive activity and to devise a model to explain the observed variations. We analysed geodetic data, satellite thermal data, images from remote cameras and seismic data in a timespan crossing the eruptive period of 2019 to identify precursors of the two paroxysms on a medium-term time span (months) and to perform an in-depth analysis of the signals recorded on a short time scale (hours, minutes) before the paroxysm. We developed a model that explains the observations. We call the model “push and go” where the uppermost feeding system of Stromboli is made up of a lower section occupied by a low viscosity, low density magma that is largely composed of gases and a shallower section occupied by the accumulated melt. We hypothesize that the paroxysms are triggered when an overpressure in the lower section is built up; the explosion will occur at the very moment such overpressure overcomes the confining pressure of the highly viscous magma above it.
Keywords	Stromboli volcano ; ground deformations ; thermal monitoring ; modelling of volcanic sources ; physics of volcanism ; geophysical monitoring ; Science ; Q
Subject code	550
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-10-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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