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Article ; Online: Confirmation bias is adaptive when coupled with efficient metacognition.

Rollwage, Max / Fleming, Stephen M

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences

2021 Volume 376, Issue 1822, Page(s) 20200131

Abstract: Biases in the consideration of evidence can reduce the chances of consensus between people with different viewpoints. While such altered information processing typically leads to detrimental performance in laboratory tasks, the ubiquitous nature of ... ...

Abstract	Biases in the consideration of evidence can reduce the chances of consensus between people with different viewpoints. While such altered information processing typically leads to detrimental performance in laboratory tasks, the ubiquitous nature of confirmation bias makes it unlikely that selective information processing is universally harmful. Here, we suggest that confirmation bias is adaptive to the extent that agents have good metacognition, allowing them to downweight contradictory information when correct but still able to seek new information when they realize they are wrong. Using simulation-based modelling, we explore how the adaptiveness of holding a confirmation bias depends on such metacognitive insight. We find that the behavioural consequences of selective information processing are systematically affected by agents' introspective abilities. Strikingly, we find that selective information processing can even improve decision-making when compared with unbiased evidence accumulation, as long as it is accompanied by good metacognition. These results further suggest that interventions which boost people's metacognition might be efficient in alleviating the negative effects of selective information processing on issues such as political polarization. This article is part of the theme issue 'The political brain: neurocognitive and computational mechanisms'.
MeSH term(s)	Bias ; Decision Making ; Humans ; Metacognition ; Models, Psychological
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-22
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	208382-6
ISSN	1471-2970 ; 0080-4622 ; 0264-3839 ; 0962-8436
ISSN (online)	1471-2970
ISSN	0080-4622 ; 0264-3839 ; 0962-8436
DOI	10.1098/rstb.2020.0131
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Article ; Online: Closing the accessibility gap to mental health treatment with a personalized self-referral chatbot.

Habicht, Johanna / Viswanathan, Sruthi / Carrington, Ben / Hauser, Tobias U / Harper, Ross / Rollwage, Max

Nature medicine

2024 Volume 30, Issue 2, Page(s) 595–602

Abstract: Inequality in treatment access is a pressing issue in most healthcare systems across many medical disciplines. In mental healthcare, reduced treatment access for minorities is ubiquitous but remedies are sparse. Here we demonstrate that digital tools can ...

Abstract	Inequality in treatment access is a pressing issue in most healthcare systems across many medical disciplines. In mental healthcare, reduced treatment access for minorities is ubiquitous but remedies are sparse. Here we demonstrate that digital tools can reduce the accessibility gap by addressing several key barriers. In a multisite observational study of 129,400 patients within England's NHS services, we evaluated the impact of a personalized artificial intelligence-enabled self-referral chatbot on patient referral volume and diversity in ethnicity, gender and sexual orientation. We found that services that used this digital solution identified substantially increased referrals (15% increase versus 6% increase in control services). Critically, this increase was particularly pronounced in minorities, such as nonbinary (179% increase) and ethnic minority individuals (29% increase). Using natural language processing to analyze qualitative feedback from 42,332 individuals, we found that the chatbot's human-free nature and the patients' self-realization of their need for treatment were potential drivers for the observed improvement in the diversity of access. This provides strong evidence that digital tools may help overcome the pervasive inequality in mental healthcare.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Male ; Female ; Ethnicity/psychology ; Minority Groups/psychology ; Artificial Intelligence ; Mental Health ; Health Services Accessibility ; Referral and Consultation
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-02-05
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Observational Study ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1220066-9
ISSN	1546-170X ; 1078-8956
ISSN (online)	1546-170X
ISSN	1078-8956
DOI	10.1038/s41591-023-02766-x
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Article ; Online: Why and When Beliefs Change.

Sharot, Tali / Rollwage, Max / Sunstein, Cass R / Fleming, Stephen M

Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science

2022 Volume 18, Issue 1, Page(s) 142–151

Abstract: Why people do or do not change their beliefs has been a long-standing puzzle. Sometimes people hold onto false beliefs despite ample contradictory evidence; sometimes they change their beliefs without sufficient reason. Here, we propose that the utility ... ...

Abstract	Why people do or do not change their beliefs has been a long-standing puzzle. Sometimes people hold onto false beliefs despite ample contradictory evidence; sometimes they change their beliefs without sufficient reason. Here, we propose that the utility of a belief is derived from the potential outcomes associated with holding it. Outcomes can be internal (e.g., positive/negative feelings) or external (e.g., material gain/loss), and only some are dependent on belief accuracy. Belief change can then be understood as an economic transaction in which the multidimensional utility of the old belief is compared against that of the new belief. Change will occur when potential outcomes alter across attributes, for example because of changing environments or when certain outcomes are made more or less salient.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Emotions
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-08-08
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2224911-4
ISSN	1745-6924 ; 1745-6916
ISSN (online)	1745-6924
ISSN	1745-6916
DOI	10.1177/17456916221082967
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Article ; Online: Dogmatism manifests in lowered information search under uncertainty.

Schulz, Lion / Rollwage, Max / Dolan, Raymond J / Fleming, Stephen M

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

2020 Volume 117, Issue 49, Page(s) 31527–31534

Abstract: When knowledge is scarce, it is adaptive to seek further information to resolve uncertainty and obtain a more accurate worldview. Biases in such information-seeking behavior can contribute to the maintenance of inaccurate views. Here, we investigate ... ...

Abstract	When knowledge is scarce, it is adaptive to seek further information to resolve uncertainty and obtain a more accurate worldview. Biases in such information-seeking behavior can contribute to the maintenance of inaccurate views. Here, we investigate whether predispositions for uncertainty-guided information seeking relate to individual differences in dogmatism, a phenomenon linked to entrenched beliefs in political, scientific, and religious discourse. We addressed this question in a perceptual decision-making task, allowing us to rule out motivational factors and isolate the role of uncertainty. In two independent general population samples (
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-11-19
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	209104-5
ISSN	1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
ISSN (online)	1091-6490
ISSN	0027-8424
DOI	10.1073/pnas.2009641117
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Article ; Online: Metacognitive Failure as a Feature of Those Holding Radical Beliefs.

Rollwage, Max / Dolan, Raymond J / Fleming, Stephen M

Current biology : CB

2018 Volume 28, Issue 24, Page(s) 4014–4021.e8

Abstract: Widening polarization about political, religious, and scientific issues threatens open societies, leading to entrenchment of beliefs, reduced mutual understanding, and a pervasive negativity surrounding the very idea of consensus [1, 2]. Such ... ...

Abstract	Widening polarization about political, religious, and scientific issues threatens open societies, leading to entrenchment of beliefs, reduced mutual understanding, and a pervasive negativity surrounding the very idea of consensus [1, 2]. Such radicalization has been linked to systematic differences in the certainty with which people adhere to particular beliefs [3-6]. However, the drivers of unjustified certainty in radicals are rarely considered from the perspective of models of metacognition, and it remains unknown whether radicals show alterations in confidence bias (a tendency to publicly espouse higher confidence), metacognitive sensitivity (insight into the correctness of one's beliefs), or both [7]. Within two independent general population samples (n = 381 and n = 417), here we show that individuals holding radical beliefs (as measured by questionnaires about political attitudes) display a specific impairment in metacognitive sensitivity about low-level perceptual discrimination judgments. Specifically, more radical participants displayed less insight into the correctness of their choices and reduced updating of their confidence when presented with post-decision evidence. Our use of a simple perceptual decision task enables us to rule out effects of previous knowledge, task performance, and motivational factors underpinning differences in metacognition. Instead, our findings highlight a generic resistance to recognizing and revising incorrect beliefs as a potential driver of radicalization.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Aged ; Culture ; Decision Making ; Female ; Humans ; Judgment ; Male ; Metacognition ; Middle Aged ; Politics ; Young Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-12-16
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1071731-6
ISSN	1879-0445 ; 0960-9822
ISSN (online)	1879-0445
ISSN	0960-9822
DOI	10.1016/j.cub.2018.10.053
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Article ; Online: Confidence drives a neural confirmation bias.

Rollwage, Max / Loosen, Alisa / Hauser, Tobias U / Moran, Rani / Dolan, Raymond J / Fleming, Stephen M

Nature communications

2020 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 2634

Abstract: A prominent source of polarised and entrenched beliefs is confirmation bias, where evidence against one's position is selectively disregarded. This effect is most starkly evident when opposing parties are highly confident in their decisions. Here we ... ...

Abstract	A prominent source of polarised and entrenched beliefs is confirmation bias, where evidence against one's position is selectively disregarded. This effect is most starkly evident when opposing parties are highly confident in their decisions. Here we combine human magnetoencephalography (MEG) with behavioural and neural modelling to identify alterations in post-decisional processing that contribute to the phenomenon of confirmation bias. We show that holding high confidence in a decision leads to a striking modulation of post-decision neural processing, such that integration of confirmatory evidence is amplified while disconfirmatory evidence processing is abolished. We conclude that confidence shapes a selective neural gating for choice-consistent information, reducing the likelihood of changes of mind on the basis of new information. A central role for confidence in shaping the fidelity of evidence accumulation indicates that metacognitive interventions may help ameliorate this pervasive cognitive bias.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Bias ; Brain/physiology ; Choice Behavior/physiology ; Decision Making/physiology ; Female ; Humans ; Magnetoencephalography ; Male ; Metacognition/physiology ; Models, Neurological ; Models, Psychological ; Self Concept ; Young Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-05-26
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2553671-0
ISSN	2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
ISSN (online)	2041-1723
ISSN	2041-1723
DOI	10.1038/s41467-020-16278-6
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Article ; Online: Judgments of effort exerted by others are influenced by received rewards.

Rollwage, Max / Pannach, Franziska / Stinson, Caedyn / Toelch, Ulf / Kagan, Igor / Pooresmaeili, Arezoo

Scientific reports

2020 Volume 10, Issue 1, Page(s) 1868

Abstract: Estimating invested effort is a core dimension for evaluating own and others' actions, and views on the relationship between effort and rewards are deeply ingrained in various societal attitudes. Internal representations of effort, however, are ... ...

Abstract	Estimating invested effort is a core dimension for evaluating own and others' actions, and views on the relationship between effort and rewards are deeply ingrained in various societal attitudes. Internal representations of effort, however, are inherently noisy, e.g. due to the variability of sensorimotor and visceral responses to physical exertion. The uncertainty in effort judgments is further aggravated when there is no direct access to the internal representations of exertion - such as when estimating the effort of another person. Bayesian cue integration suggests that this uncertainty can be resolved by incorporating additional cues that are predictive of effort, e.g. received rewards. We hypothesized that judgments about the effort spent on a task will be influenced by the magnitude of received rewards. Additionally, we surmised that such influence might further depend on individual beliefs regarding the relationship between hard work and prosperity, as exemplified by a conservative work ethic. To test these predictions, participants performed an effortful task interleaved with a partner and were informed about the obtained reward before rating either their own or the partner's effort. We show that higher rewards led to higher estimations of exerted effort in self-judgments, and this effect was even more pronounced for other-judgments. In both types of judgment, computational modelling revealed that reward information and sensorimotor markers of exertion were combined in a Bayes-optimal manner in order to reduce uncertainty. Remarkably, the extent to which rewards influenced effort judgments was associated with conservative world-views, indicating links between this phenomenon and general beliefs about the relationship between effort and earnings in society.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Bayes Theorem ; Cues ; Female ; Humans ; Judgment/physiology ; Male ; Physical Exertion/physiology ; Reward
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-02-05
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-020-58686-0
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Article: Postdecision Evidence Integration and Depressive Symptoms.

Moses-Payne, Madeleine E / Rollwage, Max / Fleming, Stephen M / Roiser, Jonathan P

Frontiers in psychiatry

2019 Volume 10, Page(s) 639

Abstract: Background: ...

Abstract	Background:
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-09-23
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2564218-2
ISSN	1664-0640
ISSN	1664-0640
DOI	10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00639
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Article ; Online: What Underlies Political Polarization? A Manifesto for Computational Political Psychology.

Rollwage, Max / Zmigrod, Leor / de-Wit, Lee / Dolan, Raymond J / Fleming, Stephen M

Trends in cognitive sciences

2019 Volume 23, Issue 10, Page(s) 820–822

Abstract: Polarization is one of the biggest societal challenges of our time, yet its drivers are poorly understood. Here we propose a novel approach - computational political psychology - which uses behavioral tasks in combination with formal computational models ...

Abstract	Polarization is one of the biggest societal challenges of our time, yet its drivers are poorly understood. Here we propose a novel approach - computational political psychology - which uses behavioral tasks in combination with formal computational models to identify candidate cognitive processes underpinning susceptibility to polarized beliefs about political and societal issues.
MeSH term(s)	Cognition ; Cognitive Science ; Computer Simulation ; Humans ; Politics
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-08-15
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Review
ZDB-ID	2010989-1
ISSN	1879-307X ; 1364-6613
ISSN (online)	1879-307X
ISSN	1364-6613
DOI	10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.006
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Article ; Online: Post-decision wagering after perceptual judgments reveals bi-directional certainty readouts.

Moreira, Caio M / Rollwage, Max / Kaduk, Kristin / Wilke, Melanie / Kagan, Igor

Cognition

2018 Volume 176, Page(s) 40–52

Abstract: Humans and other animals constantly evaluate their decisions in order to learn and behave adaptively. Experimentally, such evaluation processes are accessed using metacognitive reports made after decisions, typically using verbally formulated confidence ... ...

Abstract	Humans and other animals constantly evaluate their decisions in order to learn and behave adaptively. Experimentally, such evaluation processes are accessed using metacognitive reports made after decisions, typically using verbally formulated confidence scales. When subjects report high confidence, it reflects a high certainty of being correct, but a low confidence might signify either low certainty about the outcome, or a high certainty of being incorrect. Hence, metacognitive reports might reflect not only different levels of decision certainty, but also two certainty directions (certainty of being correct and certainty of being incorrect). It is important to test if such bi-directional processing can be measured because, for decision-making under uncertainty, information about being incorrect is as important as information about being correct for guidance of subsequent behavior. We were able to capture implicit bi-directional certainty readouts by asking subjects to bet money on their perceptual decision accuracy using a six-grade wager scale (post-decision wagering, PDW). To isolate trial-specific aspects of metacognitive judgments, we used pre-decision wagering (wagering before the perceptual decision) to subtract, from PDW trials, influences resulting from non-trial-specific assessment of expected difficulty and psychological biases. This novel design allowed independent quantification of certainty of being correct and certainty of being incorrect, showing that subjects were able to read out certainty in a bi-directional manner. Certainty readouts about being incorrect were particularly associated with metacognitive sensitivity exceeding perceptual sensitivity (i.e. meta-d' > d'), suggesting that such enhanced metacognitive efficiency is driven by information about incorrect decisions. Readouts of certainty in both directions increased on easier trials, and both certainty directions were also associated with faster metacognitive reaction times, indicating that certainty of being incorrect was not confounded with low certainty. Finally, both readouts influenced the amount of money subjects earned through PDW, suggesting that bi-directional readouts are important for planning future actions when feedback about previous decisions is unavailable.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Decision Making ; Female ; Games, Experimental ; Humans ; Judgment ; Male ; Metacognition ; Models, Psychological ; Reaction Time ; Visual Perception ; Young Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-03-20
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1499940-7
ISSN	1873-7838 ; 0010-0277
ISSN (online)	1873-7838
ISSN	0010-0277
DOI	10.1016/j.cognition.2018.02.026
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