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Article: Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

Hattermann, Fred / Gosling, Simon / Müller, Christoph / Samaniego, Luis

Environmental research letters, 13(1):015006

2018

Abstract: Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from ... ...

Institution	Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Abstract	Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.
Keywords	ANOVA ; Paris climate agreement ; climate change uncertainty ; hydrology ; multi-model assessment ; water resources
Language	English
Document type	Article
Database	Repository for Life Sciences

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Conference proceedings ; Online: Transferability of hydrologic model parameters for the validation of simulated evapotranspiration variable under data-scarce conditions in Nigeria

Ogbu, K. / Rakovec, O. / Samaniego, L. / Bernhard, T.

XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)

2023

Abstract: The objective of this study is to validate actual evapotranspiration (Aet) simulation (1982 – 2011) over three agro-climatic regions (Sahel, Savannah, and Guinea) within Nigeria. For this investigation, the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) was calibrated ...

Abstract	The objective of this study is to validate actual evapotranspiration (Aet) simulation (1982 – 2011) over three agro-climatic regions (Sahel, Savannah, and Guinea) within Nigeria. For this investigation, the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) was calibrated for streamflow simulation using CHIRPS and ERA5 rainfall datasets in three basins (Jamaare, Hadejia, and Kaduna) in Nigeria. Model parameter sets obtained from these simulations were each used to set up mHM for Aet simulation over Nigeria and the three regions. Model results were compared against estimates from Aet-based products (GLEAM3.5a and FLUXNET). deseasonalized monthly Aet time series plots for all agro-climatic regions and the whole Nigeria domain in comparison to both gridded datasets (GLEAM3.5a and FLUXNET) gave satisfactory correlation scores, especially with the GLEAM3.5a. In the Savannah region, all parameter sets gave satisfactory correlation values (r > 0.5) except that from the Kaduna basin forced with ERA5. Results in the Sahel for all model setups are acceptable (r > 0.5) but poorly correlated (r < 0.5) with both observed datasets in the Guinea region except when using parameters from Jamaare and Hadejia driven with ERA5 and when using model default parameters. For the whole Nigeria domain, simulated Aet results showed satisfactory performance ( r > 0.5) mostly in comparison with the GLEAM3.5a, both for all chirps-driven datasets and for the model default setup. This study demonstrates the potential of using the GLEAM3.5a product for water resources modeling in data-scarce locations such as Nigeria.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-07-11
Publishing country	de
Document type	Conference proceedings ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: AKI-HRS, more than a name change for type-1 hepatorenal syndrome.

Ibáñez-Samaniego, Luis / Baines García, Ainara / Alonso López, Sonia

Revista espanola de enfermedades digestivas

2023 Volume 115, Issue 11, Page(s) 597–600

Abstract: Acute renal failure (ARF) development is likely the most relevant event in the natural history of severely decompensated cirrhosis. It is a common complication affecting 20-49% of inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis. Also, its presence is associated ... ...

Abstract	Acute renal failure (ARF) development is likely the most relevant event in the natural history of severely decompensated cirrhosis. It is a common complication affecting 20-49% of inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis. Also, its presence is associated with a notable increase in morbidity and mortality, and hampers management of classical cirrhosis decompensations such as ascites or hepatic encephalopathy.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Hepatorenal Syndrome/diagnosis ; Hepatorenal Syndrome/etiology ; Hepatorenal Syndrome/therapy ; Ascites/etiology ; Ascites/therapy ; Hepatic Encephalopathy/etiology ; Hepatic Encephalopathy/therapy ; Inpatients ; Liver Cirrhosis/complications
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-05-11
Publishing country	Spain
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1070381-0
ISSN	1130-0108 ; 0212-7512
ISSN	1130-0108 ; 0212-7512
DOI	10.17235/reed.2023.9677/2023
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Article ; Online: Spatial counterfactuals to explore disastrous flooding

Merz, B. / Nguyen, D. / Guse, B. / Han, L. / Guan, X. / Rakovec, O. / Samaniego, L. / Ahrens, B. / Vorogushyn, S.

Environmental Research Letters

2024

Abstract: Flood-prone people and decision-makers are often unwilling to discuss and prepare for exceptional events, as such events are hard to perceive and out of experience for most people. Once an exceptional flood occurs, affected people and decision-makers are ...

Abstract	Flood-prone people and decision-makers are often unwilling to discuss and prepare for exceptional events, as such events are hard to perceive and out of experience for most people. Once an exceptional flood occurs, affected people and decision-makers are able to learn from this event. However, this learning is often focussed narrowly on the specific disaster experienced, thus missing an opportunity to explore and prepare for even more severe, or different, events. We propose spatial counterfactual floods as a means to motivate society to discuss exceptional events and suitable risk management strategies. We generate a set of extreme floods across Germany by shifting observed rainfall events in space and then propagating these shifted fields through a flood model. We argue that the storm tracks that caused past floods could have developed several tens of km away from the actual tracks. The set of spatial counterfactual floods generated contains events which are more than twice as severe as the most disastrous flood since 1950 in Germany. Moreover, regions that have been spared from havoc in the past should not feel safe, as they could have been badly hit as well. We propose spatial counterfactuals as a suitable approach to overcome society's unwillingness to think about and prepare for exceptional floods expected to occur more frequently in a warmer world.
Subject code	910
Language	English
Publishing country	de
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Book ; Article ; Online: Event peak flow dataset for spatial counterfactual events, Germany

Nguyen, D. / Merz, B. / Guse, B. / Han, L. / Guan, X. / Rakovec, O. / Samaniego, L. / Ahrens, B. / Vorogushyn, S.

2024

Abstract: This dataset comprises event peak flows, representing extreme floods at 516 stations in Germany. The data generation process involves several key steps. Initially, observed rainfall events associated with 10 historical flood disasters from 1950 to 2021 ... ...

Abstract	This dataset comprises event peak flows, representing extreme floods at 516 stations in Germany. The data generation process involves several key steps. Initially, observed rainfall events associated with 10 historical flood disasters from 1950 to 2021 are undergone spatial shifts. These shifts involve three distances (20, 50, and 100 km) and eight directions (North, Northeast, East, Southeast, South, Southwest, West, Northwest), resulting in 24 counterfactual precipitation events. Including the factual (no shift) event, a total of 25 distinct shifting events are considered. Subsequently, these shifted fields are used as atmospheric forcing for a mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) set up and calibrated for the entire Germany. The model produces daily stream flows across its domain, from which the event peak flows are derived. This dataset is expected to provide a valuable resource for analyzing and modeling the dynamics extreme flood events in Germany.
Publisher	GFZ Data Services
Publishing country	de
Document type	Book ; Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Conference proceedings ; Online: Synthetic model simulations to understand large regional floods

Guse, B. / Han, L. / Nguyen, D. / Rakovec, O. / Samaniego, L. / Merz, B. / Vorogushyn, S.

XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)

2023

Abstract: Extreme floods are evoked by a variety of factors, including high precipitation volume and/or intensities and specific pre-event conditions in the catchments. Due to that, each extreme regional flood is characterized by event-specific spatio-temporal ... ...

Abstract	Extreme floods are evoked by a variety of factors, including high precipitation volume and/or intensities and specific pre-event conditions in the catchments. Due to that, each extreme regional flood is characterized by event-specific spatio-temporal variability in flood-inducing characteristics. Thus, the flood conditions vary along the course of large rivers and could be higher/lower, in particular after large confluences.In this study, we analyse event characteristics of extreme floods along the Danube river basin. In order to extend the limited number of extreme flood events in historical data, we apply the mesoscale Hydrological Model mHM for the region. mHM is calibrated and validated to a large set of about a hundred gauges in Germany with a focus on peak flow. The model is fed by the stochastic regional weather generator RWG which allows the generation of long synthetic weather data. Through simulations of these two combined models, a set of 60,000 years of synthetic stream flow data series is derived at several gauges. In the next step, a large number of extreme flood events with different characteristics are derived. This event-rich dataset is then used for the analysis to enhance the understanding of large regional floods and to trace the flood characteristics back to the meteorological and catchment event conditions in the catchment.
Subject code	550 ; 910
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-07-11
Publishing country	de
Document type	Conference proceedings ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: High-resolution impact-based early warning system for riverine flooding.

Najafi, Husain / Shrestha, Pallav Kumar / Rakovec, Oldrich / Apel, Heiko / Vorogushyn, Sergiy / Kumar, Rohini / Thober, Stephan / Merz, Bruno / Samaniego, Luis

Nature communications

2024 Volume 15, Issue 1, Page(s) 3726

Abstract: Despite considerable advances in flood forecasting during recent decades, state-of-the-art, operational flood early warning systems (FEWS) need to be equipped with near-real-time inundation and impact forecasts and their associated uncertainties. High- ... ...

Abstract	Despite considerable advances in flood forecasting during recent decades, state-of-the-art, operational flood early warning systems (FEWS) need to be equipped with near-real-time inundation and impact forecasts and their associated uncertainties. High-resolution, impact-based flood forecasts provide insightful information for better-informed decisions and tailored emergency actions. Valuable information can now be provided to local authorities for risk-based decision-making by utilising high-resolution lead-time maps and potential impacts to buildings and infrastructures. Here, we demonstrate a comprehensive floodplain inundation hindcast of the 2021 European Summer Flood illustrating these possibilities for better disaster preparedness, offering a 17-hour lead time for informed and advisable actions.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-05-02
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2553671-0
ISSN	2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
ISSN (online)	2041-1723
ISSN	2041-1723
DOI	10.1038/s41467-024-48065-y
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Article: Current dilemmas in hepatitis virus C management. What should we do after achieving sustained virologic response?

Conthe, Andrés / Ahumada, Adriana / Gallego Durán, Rocío / Marti-Aguado, David / Ibáñez-Samaniego, Luis

Gastroenterologia y hepatologia

2023 Volume 46, Issue 10, Page(s) 826–829

MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Sustained Virologic Response ; Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use ; Ribavirin/therapeutic use ; Hepacivirus ; Drug Therapy, Combination ; Treatment Outcome
Chemical Substances	Antiviral Agents ; Ribavirin (49717AWG6K)
Language	Spanish
Publishing date	2023-10-07
Publishing country	Spain
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	632502-6
ISSN	0210-5705
ISSN	0210-5705
DOI	10.1016/j.gastrohep.2023.10.001
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Article ; Online: Tradeoffs Between Temporal and Spatial Pattern Calibration and Their Impacts on Robustness and Transferability of Hydrologic Model Parameters to Ungauged Basins

Demirel, M. C. / Koch, J. / Rakovec, O. / Kumar, R. / Mai, J. / Müller, S. / Thober, S. / Samaniego, L. / Stisen, S.

Water Resources Research. 2024 Jan., v. 60, no. 1 p.e2022WR034193-

2024

Abstract: Optimization of spatially consistent parameter fields is believed to increase the robustness of parameter estimation and its transferability to ungauged basins. The current paper extends previous multi‐objective and transferability studies by exploring ... ...

Abstract	Optimization of spatially consistent parameter fields is believed to increase the robustness of parameter estimation and its transferability to ungauged basins. The current paper extends previous multi‐objective and transferability studies by exploring the value of both multi‐basin and spatial pattern calibration of distributed hydrologic models as compared to single‐basin and single‐objective model calibrations, with respect to tradeoffs, performance and transferability. The mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) is used across six large central European basins. Model simulations are evaluated against streamflow observations at the basin outlets and remotely sensed evapotranspiration patterns. Several model validation experiments are performed through combinations of single‐ (temporal evaluation through discharge) and multi‐objective (temporal and spatial evaluation through discharge and spatial evapotranspiration patterns) calibrations with holdout experiments saving alternating basins for model evaluation. The study shows that there are very minimal tradeoffs between spatial and temporal performance objectives and that a joint calibration of multiple basins using multiple objective functions provides the most robust estimations of parameter fields that perform better when transferred to ungauged basins. The study indicates that particularly the multi‐basin calibration approach is key for robust parametrizations, and that the addition of an objective function tailored for matching spatial patterns of ET fields alters the spatial parameter fields while significantly improving the spatial pattern performance without any tradeoffs with discharge performance. In light of model equifinality, the minimal tradeoff between spatial and temporal performance shows that adding spatial pattern evaluation to the traditional temporal evaluation of hydrological models can assist in identifying optimal parameter sets.
Keywords	basins ; evapotranspiration ; hydrologic models ; model validation ; remote sensing ; research ; stream flow ; water
Language	English
Dates of publication	2024-01
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article ; Online
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	5564-5
ISSN	1944-7973 ; 0043-1397
ISSN (online)	1944-7973
ISSN	0043-1397
DOI	10.1029/2022WR034193
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Conference proceedings ; Online: Hourly hydrological simulation of extreme events for 2021-flood affected catchments in Western Germany

Han, L. / Guse, B. / Nguyen, D. / Rakovec, O. / Guan, X. / Vorogushyn, S. / Samaniego, L. / Merz, B.

XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)

2023

Abstract: The July 2021 devastating floods in Central Europe, particularly in the river catchments in Western Germany, have resulted in a large number of death toll and vast economic damage. The BMBF-funded joint project KAHR (https://hochwasser-kahr.de) deals ... ...

Abstract	The July 2021 devastating floods in Central Europe, particularly in the river catchments in Western Germany, have resulted in a large number of death toll and vast economic damage. The BMBF-funded joint project KAHR (https://hochwasser-kahr.de) deals with the effects of this flood and develops scientific knowledge to assist the reconstruction process in flood-prone area in Western Germany, with a focus on the fast-reacting catchments of Ahr, Erft, and Rur. Therefore, small-scale flood modeling with high spatial and temporal resolution is employed to understand past floods and to develop future flood management strategies in these regions. Here, we apply the mesoscale hydrological model mHM at hourly timesteps and around 1 km spatial resolution for the three flood-prone catchments. We are able to accurately capture the dynamics of the extreme flood events for the recent period including the flood in 2021. To assess the present and future flood risk, a regional weather generator and a disaggregation procedure are applied to generate 10,000 years of synthetic hourly meteorological data. These data are used to force the mHM model to simulate the long time series of river discharge. Major flood events are extracted from this synthetic dataset to investigate the spatial-temporal characteristics of extreme flood events and associated flood risks under future climate conditions.
Subject code	550
Language	English
Publishing country	de
Document type	Conference proceedings ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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