Article ; Online: An integrated molecular risk score early in life for subsequent childhood asthma risk.
2024 Volume 54, Issue 5, Page(s) 314–328
Abstract: Background: Numerous children present with early wheeze symptoms, yet solely a subgroup develops childhood asthma. Early identification of children at risk is key for clinical monitoring, timely patient-tailored treatment, and preventing chronic, severe ...
Abstract | Background: Numerous children present with early wheeze symptoms, yet solely a subgroup develops childhood asthma. Early identification of children at risk is key for clinical monitoring, timely patient-tailored treatment, and preventing chronic, severe sequelae. For early prediction of childhood asthma, we aimed to define an integrated risk score combining established risk factors with genome-wide molecular markers at birth, complemented by subsequent clinical symptoms/diagnoses (wheezing, atopic dermatitis, food allergy). Methods: Three longitudinal birth cohorts (PAULINA/PAULCHEN, n = 190 + 93 = 283, PASTURE, n = 1133) were used to predict childhood asthma (age 5-11) including epidemiological characteristics and molecular markers: genotype, DNA methylation and mRNA expression (RNASeq/NanoString). Apparent (ap) and optimism-corrected (oc) performance (AUC/R2) was assessed leveraging evidence from independent studies (Naïve-Bayes approach) combined with high-dimensional logistic regression models (LASSO). Results: Asthma prediction with epidemiological characteristics at birth (maternal asthma, sex, farm environment) yielded an ocAUC = 0.65. Inclusion of molecular markers as predictors resulted in an improvement in apparent prediction performance, however, for optimism-corrected performance only a moderate increase was observed (upto ocAUC = 0.68). The greatest discriminate power was reached by adding the first symptoms/diagnosis (up to ocAUC = 0.76; increase of 0.08, p = .002). Longitudinal analysis of selected mRNA expression in PASTURE (cord blood, 1, 4.5, 6 years) showed that expression at age six had the strongest association with asthma and correlation of genes getting larger over time (r = .59, p < .001, 4.5-6 years). Conclusion: Applying epidemiological predictors alone showed moderate predictive abilities. Molecular markers from birth modestly improved prediction. Allergic symptoms/diagnoses enhanced the power of prediction, which is important for clinical practice and for the design of future studies with molecular markers. |
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MeSH term(s) | Humans ; Asthma/epidemiology ; Asthma/genetics ; Asthma/diagnosis ; Female ; Male ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Risk Factors ; Longitudinal Studies ; DNA Methylation ; Biomarkers ; Birth Cohort |
Chemical Substances | Biomarkers |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2024-03-31 |
Publishing country | England |
Document type | Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
ZDB-ID | 645204-8 |
ISSN | 1365-2222 ; 0954-7894 ; 0960-2178 |
ISSN (online) | 1365-2222 |
ISSN | 0954-7894 ; 0960-2178 |
DOI | 10.1111/cea.14475 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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