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Article ; Online: Impacts of metal mining on river systems: a global assessment.

Macklin, M G / Thomas, C J / Mudbhatkal, A / Brewer, P A / Hudson-Edwards, K A / Lewin, J / Scussolini, P / Eilander, D / Lechner, A / Owen, J / Bird, G / Kemp, D / Mangalaa, K R

Science (New York, N.Y.)

2023 Volume 381, Issue 6664, Page(s) 1345–1350

Abstract: An estimated 23 million people live on floodplains affected by potentially dangerous concentrations of toxic waste derived from past and present metal mining activity. We analyzed the global dimensions of this hazard, particularly in regard to lead, zinc, ...

Abstract	An estimated 23 million people live on floodplains affected by potentially dangerous concentrations of toxic waste derived from past and present metal mining activity. We analyzed the global dimensions of this hazard, particularly in regard to lead, zinc, copper, and arsenic, using a georeferenced global database detailing all known metal mining sites and intact and failed tailings storage facilities. We then used process-based and empirically tested modeling to produce a global assessment of metal mining contamination in river systems and the numbers of human populations and livestock exposed. Worldwide, metal mines affect 479,200 kilometers of river channels and 164,000 square kilometers of floodplains. The number of people exposed to contamination sourced from long-term discharge of mining waste into rivers is almost 50 times greater than the number directly affected by tailings dam failures.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-09-21
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	128410-1
ISSN	1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
ISSN (online)	1095-9203
ISSN	0036-8075
DOI	10.1126/science.adg6704
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Book ; Online: Paleo Agulhas rings enter the subtropical gyre during the penultimate deglaciation

Scussolini, P. / van Sebille, E. / Durgadoo, J. V.

eISSN: 1814-9332

2018

Abstract: A maximum in the strength of Agulhas leakage has been registered at the interface between the Indian and South Atlantic oceans during glacial Termination II (T-II). This presumably transported the salt and heat necessary for maintaining the Atlantic ... ...

Abstract	A maximum in the strength of Agulhas leakage has been registered at the interface between the Indian and South Atlantic oceans during glacial Termination II (T-II). This presumably transported the salt and heat necessary for maintaining the Atlantic circulation at rates similar to the present day. However, it was never shown whether these waters were effectively incorporated into the South Atlantic gyre, or whether they retroflected into the Indian and/or Southern oceans. To resolve this question, we investigate the presence of paleo Agulhas rings from a sediment core on the central Walvis Ridge, almost 1800 km farther into the Atlantic Basin than previously studied. Analysis of a 60 yr data set from the global-nested INALT01 model allows us to relate density perturbations at the depth of the thermocline to the passage of individual rings over the core site. Using this relation from the numerical model as the basis for a proxy, we generate a time series of variability of individual Globorotalia truncatulinoides δ 18 O. We reveal high levels of pycnocline depth variability at the site, suggesting enhanced numbers of Agulhas rings moving into the South Atlantic Gyre around T-II. Our record closely follows the published quantifications of Agulhas leakage from the east of the Cape Basin, and thus shows that Indian Ocean waters entered the South Atlantic circulation. This provides crucial support for the view of a prominent role of the Agulhas leakage in the shift from a glacial to an interglacial mode of the Atlantic circulation.
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-09-27
Publishing country	de
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Book ; Online: Assessing Chinese flood protection and its social divergence

Wang, Dan / Scussolini, Paolo / Du, Shiqiang

eISSN: 1684-9981

2021

Abstract: China is one of the most flood-prone countries, and development within floodplains is intensive. However, flood protection levels (FPLs) across the country are mostly unknown, hampering the present assertive efforts on flood risk management. Based on the ...

Abstract	China is one of the most flood-prone countries, and development within floodplains is intensive. However, flood protection levels (FPLs) across the country are mostly unknown, hampering the present assertive efforts on flood risk management. Based on the flood-protection prescriptions contained in the national flood policies, this paper develops a dataset of likely FPLs for China and investigates the protection granted to different demographic groups. The new dataset corresponds to local flood protection designs in 91 (53.2 % ) of the 171 validation counties, and in 154 counties (90.1 % ) it is very close to the designed FPLs. This suggests that the policy-based FPLs could be a valuable proxy for designed FPLs in China. The FPLs are significantly higher than previously estimated in the FLOPROS (FLOod PROtection Standards) global dataset, suggesting that Chinese flood risk was probably overestimated. Relatively high FPLs (return period of ≥50 years) are seen in 282 or only 12.6 % of the evaluated 2237 counties, which host a majority (55.1 % ) of the total exposed population. However, counties with low FPLs (return period of <50 years) host a disproportionate share (52.3 % ) of the exposed vulnerable population (children and elders), higher than their share (44.9 % ) of the exposed population. These results imply that to reduce social vulnerability and decrease potential casualties, investment in flood risk management should also consider the demographic characteristics of the exposed population.
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-24
Publishing country	de
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Book ; Online: Modelled storm surge changes in a warmer world

Scussolini, Paolo / Dullaart, Job / Muis, Sanne / Rovere, Alessio / Bakker, Pepijn / Coumou, Dim / Renssen, Hans / Ward, Philip J. / Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

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the Last Interglacial

2023

Abstract: The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, ... ...

Abstract	The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, suggests that the LIG may have featured enhanced patterns of ocean storminess, but this remains hotly debated. Here, we apply state-of-the-art climate and hydrodynamic modeling to simulate changes in sea level extremes caused by storm surges, under LIG and pre-industrial climate forcings. Significantly higher seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along northern Australia, the Indonesian archipelago, much of northern and eastern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, the Arabian Sea, the east coast of North America, and islands of the Pacific Ocean and of the Caribbean. Lower seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along the North Sea, the Bay of Bengal, China, Vietnam, and parts of Central America. Most of these anomalies are associated with anomalies in seasonal sea level pressure minima and in eddy kinetic energy calculated from near-surface wind fields, and therefore seem to originate from anomalies in the meridional position and intensity of the predominant wind bands. In a qualitative comparison, LIG sea level extremes seem generally higher than those projected for future warmer climates. These results help to constrain the interpretation of coastal archives of LIG sea level indicators.
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-16
Publishing country	de
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Book ; Online: Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world

Scussolini, Paolo / Dullaart, Job / Muis, Sanne / Rovere, Alessio / Bakker, Pepijn / Coumou, Dim / Renssen, Hans / Ward, Philip J. / Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

eISSN: 1814-9332

the Last Interglacial

2023

Abstract	The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, suggests that the LIG may have featured enhanced patterns of ocean storminess, but this remains hotly debated. Here, we apply state-of-the-art climate and hydrodynamic modeling to simulate changes in sea level extremes caused by storm surges, under LIG and pre-industrial climate forcings. Significantly higher seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along northern Australia, the Indonesian archipelago, much of northern and eastern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, the Arabian Sea, the east coast of North America, and islands of the Pacific Ocean and of the Caribbean. Lower seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along the North Sea, the Bay of Bengal, China, Vietnam, and parts of Central America. Most of these anomalies are associated with anomalies in seasonal sea level pressure minima and in eddy kinetic energy calculated from near-surface wind fields, and therefore seem to originate from anomalies in the meridional position and intensity of the predominant wind bands. In a qualitative comparison, LIG sea level extremes seem generally higher than those projected for future warmer climates. These results help to constrain the interpretation of coastal archives of LIG sea level indicators.
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-16
Publishing country	de
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: A Flood Risk Framework Capturing the Seasonality of and Dependence Between Rainfall and Sea Levels—An Application to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Couasnon, A. / Scussolini, P. / Tran, T. V. T. / Eilander, D. / Muis, S. / Wang, H. / Keesom, J. / Dullaart, J. / Xuan, Y. / Nguyen, H. Q. / Winsemius, H. C. / Ward, P. J.

Water resources research. 2022 Feb., v. 58, no. 2

2022

Abstract: State‐of‐the‐art flood hazard maps in coastal cities are often obtained from simulating coastal or pluvial events separately. This method does not account for the seasonality of flood drivers and their mutual dependence. In this article, we include the ... ...

Abstract	State‐of‐the‐art flood hazard maps in coastal cities are often obtained from simulating coastal or pluvial events separately. This method does not account for the seasonality of flood drivers and their mutual dependence. In this article, we include the impact of these two factors in a computationally efficient probabilistic framework for flood risk calculation, using Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) as a case study. HCMC can be flooded subannually by high tide, rainfall, and storm surge events or a combination thereof during the monsoon or tropical cyclones. Using long gauge observations, we stochastically model 10,000 years of rainfall and sea level events based on their monthly distributions, dependence structure and cooccurrence rate. The impact from each stochastic event is then obtained from a damage function built from selected rainfall and sea level combinations, leading to an expected annual damage (EAD) of $1.02 B (95th annual damage percentile of $2.15 B). We find no dependence for most months and large differences in expected damage across months ($36–166 M) driven by the seasonality of rainfall and sea levels. Excluding monthly variability leads to a serious underestimation of the EAD by 72–83%. This is because high‐probability flood events, which can happen multiple times during the year and are properly captured by our framework, contribute the most to the EAD. This application illustrates the potential of our framework and advocates for the inclusion of flood drivers' dynamics in coastal risk assessments.
Keywords	case studies ; monsoon season ; rain ; research ; risk ; sea level ; water ; Vietnam
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-02
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	5564-5
ISSN	1944-7973 ; 0043-1397
ISSN (online)	1944-7973
ISSN	0043-1397
DOI	10.1029/2021WR030002
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Paleo Agulhas rings enter the subtropical gyre during the penultimate deglaciation

Scussolini, P. / van Sebille, E. / Durgadoo, Jonathan V.

2013

Abstract	A maximum in the strength of Agulhas leakage has been registered at the interface between the Indian and South Atlantic oceans during glacial Termination II (T-II). This presumably transported the salt and heat necessary for maintaining the Atlantic circulation at rates similar to the present day. However, it was never shown whether these waters were effectively incorporated into the South Atlantic gyre, or whether they retroflected into the Indian and/or Southern oceans. To resolve this question, we investigate the presence of paleo Agulhas rings from a sediment core on the central Walvis Ridge, almost 1800 km farther into the Atlantic Basin than previously studied. Analysis of a 60 yr data set from the global-nested INALT01 model allows us to relate density perturbations at the depth of the thermocline to the passage of individual rings over the core site. Using this relation from the numerical model as the basis for a proxy, we generate a time series of variability of individual Globorotalia truncatulinoides delta O-18. We reveal high levels of pycnocline depth variability at the site, suggesting enhanced numbers of Agulhas rings moving into the South Atlantic Gyre around T-II. Our record closely follows the published quantifications of Agulhas leakage from the east of the Cape Basin, and thus shows that Indian Ocean waters entered the South Atlantic circulation. This provides crucial support for the view of a prominent role of the Agulhas leakage in the shift from a glacial to an interglacial mode of the Atlantic circulation.
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-11-25
Publisher	Copernicus Publications (EGU)
Publishing country	de
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Rapid Population Growth in Chinese Floodplains from 1990 to 2015.

Fang, Yongqiang / Du, Shiqiang / Scussolini, Paolo / Wen, Jiahong / He, Chunyang / Huang, Qingxu / Gao, Jun

International journal of environmental research and public health

2018 Volume 15, Issue 8

Abstract: Although China suffers from frequent and disastrous floods, the spatiotemporal pattern of its population living in the floodplain (PopF) is still unknown. This strongly limits our understanding of flood risk and the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. ... ...

Abstract	Although China suffers from frequent and disastrous floods, the spatiotemporal pattern of its population living in the floodplain (PopF) is still unknown. This strongly limits our understanding of flood risk and the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. Here we present the first quantification of Chinese PopF and its dynamics, based on newly-available population datasets for years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 and on a flood map. We found that the PopF in 2015 was 453.3 million and accounted for 33.0% of the total population, with a population density 3.6 times higher than outside floodplains. From 1990 to 2015, the PopF increased by 1.3% annually, overwhelmingly faster than elsewhere (0.5%). A rising proportion (from 53.2% in 1990 to 55.6% in 2015) of the PopF resided in flood zones deeper than 2 m. Moreover, the PopF is expected to increase rapidly in the coming decades. We also found the effect of flood memory on controlling PopF growth and its decay over time. These findings imply an exacerbating flood risk in China, which is concerning in the light of climate change and rapid socioeconomic development.
MeSH term(s)	China ; Climate Change ; Disasters ; Floods ; Population Growth
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-07-28
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ISSN	1660-4601
ISSN (online)	1660-4601
DOI	10.3390/ijerph15081602
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: A Multidisciplinary Analysis for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Scussolini, Paolo / Tran, Thi Van Thu / Koks, Elco / Diaz‐Loaiza, Andres / Ho, Phi Long / Lasage, Ralph

Water resources research. 2017 Dec., v. 53, no. 12

2017

Abstract: One of the most critical impacts of sea level rise is that flooding suffered by ever larger settlements in tropical deltas will increase. Here we look at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and quantify the threats that coastal floods pose to safety and to the ... ...

Abstract	One of the most critical impacts of sea level rise is that flooding suffered by ever larger settlements in tropical deltas will increase. Here we look at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and quantify the threats that coastal floods pose to safety and to the economy. For this, we produce flood maps through hydrodynamic modeling and, by combining these with data sets of exposure and vulnerability, we estimate two indicators of risk: the damage to assets and the number of potential casualties. We simulate current and future (2050 and 2100) flood risk using IPCC scenarios of sea level rise and socioeconomic change. We find that annual damage may grow by more than 1 order of magnitude, and potential casualties may grow 5–20‐fold until the end of the century, in the absence of adaptation. Impacts depend strongly on the climate and socioeconomic scenarios considered. Next, we simulate the implementation of adaptation measures and calculate their effectiveness in reducing impacts. We find that a ring dike would protect the inner city but increase risk in more rural districts, whereas elevating areas at risk and dryproofing buildings will reduce impacts to the city as a whole. Most measures perform well from an economic standpoint. Combinations of measures seem to be the optimal solution and may address potential equity conflicts. Based on our results, we design possible adaptation pathways for Ho Chi Minh City for the coming decades; these can inform policy‐making and strategic thinking.
Keywords	climate ; hydrodynamics ; research ; risk ; sea level ; water ; Vietnam
Language	English
Dates of publication	2017-12
Size	p. 10841-10857.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	5564-5
ISSN	1944-7973 ; 0043-1397
ISSN (online)	1944-7973
ISSN	0043-1397
DOI	10.1002/2017WR021344
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Substantial light woodland and open vegetation characterized the temperate forest biome before

Pearce, Elena A / Mazier, Florence / Normand, Signe / Fyfe, Ralph / Andrieu, Valérie / Bakels, Corrie / Balwierz, Zofia / Bińka, Krzysztof / Boreham, Steve / Borisova, Olga K / Brostrom, Anna / de Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis / Gao, Cunhai / González-Sampériz, Penélope / Granoszewski, Wojciech / Hrynowiecka, Anna / Kołaczek, Piotr / Kuneš, Petr / Magri, Donatella /

Malkiewicz, Małgorzata / Mighall, Tim / Milner, Alice M / Möller, Per / Nita, Małgorzata / Noryśkiewicz, Bożena / Pidek, Irena Agnieszka / Reille, Maurice / Robertsson, Ann-Marie / Salonen, J Sakari / Schläfli, Patrick / Schokker, Jeroen / Scussolini, Paolo / Šeirienė, Vaida / Strahl, Jaqueline / Urban, Brigitte / Winter, Hanna / Svenning, Jens-Christian

Science advances

2023 Volume 9, Issue 45, Page(s) eadi9135

Abstract: The extent of vegetation openness in past European landscapes is widely debated. In particular, the temperate forest biome has traditionally been defined as dense, closed-canopy forest; however, some argue that large herbivores maintained greater ... ...

Abstract	The extent of vegetation openness in past European landscapes is widely debated. In particular, the temperate forest biome has traditionally been defined as dense, closed-canopy forest; however, some argue that large herbivores maintained greater openness or even wood-pasture conditions. Here, we address this question for the Last Interglacial period (129,000-116,000 years ago), before
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Biodiversity ; Pollen ; Wood ; Trees
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-10
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2810933-8
ISSN	2375-2548 ; 2375-2548
ISSN (online)	2375-2548
ISSN	2375-2548
DOI	10.1126/sciadv.adi9135
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