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Article ; Online: COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in South Africa and epidemiological characteristics of three variants of concern (Beta, Delta, and Omicron).

Yang, Wan / Shaman, Jeffrey L

2022 Volume 11

Abstract: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) have been key drivers of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic waves. To better understand variant epidemiologic characteristics, here we apply a model- ... ...

Abstract	Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) have been key drivers of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic waves. To better understand variant epidemiologic characteristics, here we apply a model-inference system to reconstruct SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in South Africa, a country that has experienced three VOC pandemic waves (i.e. Beta, Delta, and Omicron BA.1) by February 2022. We estimate key epidemiologic quantities in each of the nine South African provinces during March 2020 to February 2022, while accounting for changing detection rates, infection seasonality, nonpharmaceutical interventions, and vaccination. Model validation shows that estimated underlying infection rates and key parameters (e.g. infection-detection rate and infection-fatality risk) are in line with independent epidemiological data and investigations. In addition, retrospective predictions capture pandemic trajectories beyond the model training period. These detailed, validated model-inference estimates thus enable quantification of both the immune erosion potential and transmissibility of three major SARS-CoV-2 VOCs, that is, Beta, Delta, and Omicron BA.1. These findings help elucidate changing COVID-19 dynamics and inform future public health planning.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; Disease Susceptibility ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Retrospective Studies ; SARS-CoV-2 ; South Africa/epidemiology ; United States
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-08-09
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S. ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2687154-3
ISSN	2050-084X ; 2050-084X
ISSN (online)	2050-084X
ISSN	2050-084X
DOI	10.7554/eLife.78933
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Correction to: Heat stress morbidity among US military personnel: daily exposure and lagged response (1998-2019).

Lewandowski, Stephen A / Shaman, Jeffrey L

International journal of biometeorology

2022 Volume 66, Issue 6, Page(s) 1209–1217

Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-20
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Published Erratum
ZDB-ID	280324-0
ISSN	1432-1254 ; 0020-7128
ISSN (online)	1432-1254
ISSN	0020-7128
DOI	10.1007/s00484-022-02291-5
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Heat stress morbidity among US military personnel: Daily exposure and lagged response (1998-2019).

Lewandowski, Stephen A / Shaman, Jeffrey L

International journal of biometeorology

2022 Volume 66, Issue 6, Page(s) 1199–1208

Abstract: Heat stress illnesses represent a rising public health threat; however, associations between environmental heat and observed adverse health outcomes across populations and geographies remain insufficiently elucidated to evaluate risk and develop ... ...

Abstract	Heat stress illnesses represent a rising public health threat; however, associations between environmental heat and observed adverse health outcomes across populations and geographies remain insufficiently elucidated to evaluate risk and develop prevention strategies. In particular, military-relevant large-scale studies of daily heat stress morbidity responses among physically active, working-age adults to various indices of heat have been limited. We evaluated daily means, maximums, minimums, and early morning measures of temperature, heat index, and wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) indices, assessing their association with 31,642 case-definition heat stroke and heat exhaustion encounters among active duty servicemembers diagnosed at 24 continental US installations from 1998 to 2019. We utilized anonymized encounter data consisting of hospitalizations, ambulatory (out-patient) visits, and reportable events to define heat stress illness cases and select the 24 installations with the highest case counts. We derived daily indices of heat from hourly-scale gridded climate data and applied a case-crossover study design incorporating distributed-lag, nonlinear models with 5 days of lag to estimate odds ratios at one-degree increments for each index of heat. All indices exhibited nonlinear odds ratios with short-term lag effects throughout observed temperature ranges. Responses were positive, monotonic, and exponential in nature, except for maximum daily WBGT, minimum daily temperature, temperature at 0600 h (local), and WBGT at 0600 h (local), which, while generally increasing, showed decreasing risk for the highest heat category days. The risk for a heat stress illness on a day with a maximum WBGT of 32.2 °C (90.0 °F) was 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82 - 2.05) times greater than on a day with a maximum WBGT of 28.6 °C (83.4 °F). The risk was 2.53 (2.36-2.71) times greater on days with a maximum heat index of 40.6 °C (105 °F) compared to 32.8 °C (91.0 °F). Our findings suggest that prevention efforts may benefit from including prior-day heat levels in risk assessments, from monitoring temperature and heat index in addition to WBGT, and by promoting control measures and awareness across all heat categories.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Cross-Over Studies ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology ; Heat Stress Disorders/prevention & control ; Heat-Shock Response ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Military Personnel ; Morbidity
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-03-15
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	280324-0
ISSN	1432-1254 ; 0020-7128
ISSN (online)	1432-1254
ISSN	0020-7128
DOI	10.1007/s00484-022-02269-3
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Article ; Online: Heat stress illness outcomes and annual indices of outdoor heat at U.S. Army installations.

Lewandowski, Stephen A / Kioumourtzoglou, Marianthi-Anna / Shaman, Jeffrey L

PloS one

2022 Volume 17, Issue 11, Page(s) e0263803

Abstract: This study characterized associations between annually scaled thermal indices and annual heat stress illness (HSI) morbidity outcomes, including heat stroke and heat exhaustion, among active-duty soldiers at ten Continental U.S. (CONUS) Army ... ...

Abstract	This study characterized associations between annually scaled thermal indices and annual heat stress illness (HSI) morbidity outcomes, including heat stroke and heat exhaustion, among active-duty soldiers at ten Continental U.S. (CONUS) Army installations from 1991 to 2018. We fit negative binomial models for 3 types of HSI morbidity outcomes and annual indices for temperature, heat index, and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), adjusting for installation-level effects and long-term trends in the negative binomial regression models using block-bootstrap resampling. Ambulatory (out-patient) and reportable event HSI outcomes displayed predominately positive association patterns with the assessed annual indices of heat, whereas hospitalization associations were mostly null. For example, a one-degree Fahrenheit (°F) (or 0.55°C) increase in mean temperature between May and September was associated with a 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11, 1.29) times greater rate of ambulatory encounters. The annual-scaled rate ratios and their uncertainties may be applied to climate projections for a wide range of thermal indices to estimate future military and civilian HSI burdens and impacts to medical resources.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Military Personnel ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology ; Temperature ; Climate ; Heat-Shock Response
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-23
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0263803
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: Heat stress morbidity among US military personnel: Daily exposure and lagged response (1998–2019) [Erratum: June 2022, v.66(6); p.1209]

Lewandowski, Stephen A. / Shaman, Jeffrey L.

International journal of biometeorology. 2022 June, v. 66, no. 6

2022

Abstract	Heat stress illnesses represent a rising public health threat; however, associations between environmental heat and observed adverse health outcomes across populations and geographies remain insufficiently elucidated to evaluate risk and develop prevention strategies. In particular, military-relevant large-scale studies of daily heat stress morbidity responses among physically active, working-age adults to various indices of heat have been limited. We evaluated daily means, maximums, minimums, and early morning measures of temperature, heat index, and wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) indices, assessing their association with 31,642 case-definition heat stroke and heat exhaustion encounters among active duty servicemembers diagnosed at 24 continental US installations from 1998 to 2019. We utilized anonymized encounter data consisting of hospitalizations, ambulatory (out-patient) visits, and reportable events to define heat stress illness cases and select the 24 installations with the highest case counts. We derived daily indices of heat from hourly-scale gridded climate data and applied a case-crossover study design incorporating distributed-lag, nonlinear models with 5 days of lag to estimate odds ratios at one-degree increments for each index of heat. All indices exhibited nonlinear odds ratios with short-term lag effects throughout observed temperature ranges. Responses were positive, monotonic, and exponential in nature, except for maximum daily WBGT, minimum daily temperature, temperature at 0600 h (local), and WBGT at 0600 h (local), which, while generally increasing, showed decreasing risk for the highest heat category days. The risk for a heat stress illness on a day with a maximum WBGT of 32.2 °C (90.0 °F) was 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82 – 2.05) times greater than on a day with a maximum WBGT of 28.6 °C (83.4 °F). The risk was 2.53 (2.36—2.71) times greater on days with a maximum heat index of 40.6 °C (105 °F) compared to 32.8 °C (91.0 °F). Our findings suggest that prevention efforts may benefit from including prior-day heat levels in risk assessments, from monitoring temperature and heat index in addition to WBGT, and by promoting control measures and awareness across all heat categories.
Keywords	experimental design ; heat ; heat exhaustion ; heat stress ; heat stroke ; meteorological data ; military personnel ; morbidity ; public health ; risk ; risk assessment ; temperature
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-06
Size	p. 1199-1208.
Publishing place	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	127361-9
ISSN	0067-8902 ; 0020-7128
ISSN	0067-8902 ; 0020-7128
DOI	10.1007/s00484-022-02269-3
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Associations Between Built Environment, Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, and SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Pregnant Women in New York City.

Emeruwa, Ukachi N / Ona, Samsiya / Shaman, Jeffrey L / Turitz, Amy / Wright, Jason D / Gyamfi-Bannerman, Cynthia / Melamed, Alexander

JAMA

2020 Volume 324, Issue 4, Page(s) 390–392

MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Betacoronavirus ; Built Environment/classification ; Built Environment/economics ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Crowding ; Female ; Humans ; Income ; Logistic Models ; New York City/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; Population Density ; Pregnancy ; Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/epidemiology ; Residence Characteristics/classification ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Social Class ; Unemployment/statistics & numerical data
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-06-18
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2958-0
ISSN	1538-3598 ; 0254-9077 ; 0002-9955 ; 0098-7484
ISSN (online)	1538-3598
ISSN	0254-9077 ; 0002-9955 ; 0098-7484
DOI	10.1001/jama.2020.11370
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Article ; Online: Inference and control of the nosocomial transmission of methicillin-resistant

Pei, Sen / Morone, Flaviano / Liljeros, Fredrik / Makse, Hernán / Shaman, Jeffrey L

eLife

2018 Volume 7

Abstract: Methicillin- ... ...

Abstract	Methicillin-resistant
MeSH term(s)	Biostatistics ; Carrier State/epidemiology ; Carrier State/microbiology ; Cross Infection/epidemiology ; Cross Infection/microbiology ; Cross Infection/prevention & control ; Cross Infection/transmission ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control ; Epidemiologic Methods ; Hospitals ; Humans ; Infection Control/methods ; Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus/isolation & purification ; Retrospective Studies ; Staphylococcal Infections/epidemiology ; Staphylococcal Infections/microbiology ; Staphylococcal Infections/prevention & control ; Staphylococcal Infections/transmission ; Sweden/epidemiology
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-12-18
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
ZDB-ID	2687154-3
ISSN	2050-084X ; 2050-084X
ISSN (online)	2050-084X
ISSN	2050-084X
DOI	10.7554/eLife.40977
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza.

Chattopadhyay, Ishanu / Kiciman, Emre / Elliott, Joshua W / Shaman, Jeffrey L / Rzhetsky, Andrey

eLife

2018 Volume 7

Abstract: Using several longitudinal datasets describing putative factors affecting influenza incidence and clinical data on the disease and health status of over 150 million human subjects observed over a decade, we investigated the source and the mechanistic ... ...

Abstract	Using several longitudinal datasets describing putative factors affecting influenza incidence and clinical data on the disease and health status of over 150 million human subjects observed over a decade, we investigated the source and the mechanistic triggers of influenza epidemics. We conclude that the initiation of a pan-continental influenza wave emerges from the simultaneous realization of a complex set of conditions. The strongest predictor groups are as follows, ranked by importance: (1) the host population's socio- and ethno-demographic properties; (2) weather variables pertaining to specific humidity, temperature, and solar radiation; (3) the virus' antigenic drift over time; (4) the host population'€™s land-based travel habits, and; (5) recent spatio-temporal dynamics, as reflected in the influenza wave auto-correlation. The models we infer are demonstrably predictive (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve 80%) when tested with out-of-sample data, opening the door to the potential formulation of new population-level intervention and mitigation policies.
MeSH term(s)	Behavior ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Humans ; Incidence ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Influenza, Human/transmission ; Longitudinal Studies ; Orthomyxoviridae/genetics ; Orthomyxoviridae/immunology ; Seasons ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Travel ; Weather
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-02-27
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
ZDB-ID	2687154-3
ISSN	2050-084X ; 2050-084X
ISSN (online)	2050-084X
ISSN	2050-084X
DOI	10.7554/eLife.30756
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: Associations Between Built Environment, Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, and SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Pregnant Women in New York City

Emeruwa, Ukachi N / Ona, Samsiya / Shaman, Jeffrey L / Turitz, Amy / Wright, Jason D / Gyamfi-Bannerman, Cynthia / Melamed, Alexander

JAMA

Keywords	covid19
Publisher	WHO
Document type	Article
Note	WHO #Covidence: #603693
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Associations Between Built Environment, Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, and SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Pregnant Women in New York City

Emeruwa, Ukachi N. / Ona, Samsiya / Shaman, Jeffrey L. / Turitz, Amy / Wright, Jason D. / Gyamfi-Bannerman, Cynthia / Melamed, Alexander

JAMA

2020 Volume 324, Issue 4, Page(s) 390

Keywords	General Medicine ; covid19
Language	English
Publisher	American Medical Association (AMA)
Publishing country	us
Document type	Article ; Online
ZDB-ID	2958-0
ISSN	1538-3598 ; 0254-9077 ; 0002-9955 ; 0098-7484
ISSN (online)	1538-3598
ISSN	0254-9077 ; 0002-9955 ; 0098-7484
DOI	10.1001/jama.2020.11370
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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