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  1. Article ; Online: Editorial

    Emily C. Adams / Kathryn Grace / Shraddhanand Shukla

    Frontiers in Climate, Vol

    Gender and social consideration in climate and impacts research and services

    2022  Volume 4

    Keywords social and climate impacts ; women ; climate research ; climate services ; climate equity ; inclusion ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-10-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: A slow rainy season onset is a reliable harbinger of drought in most food insecure regions in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Shraddhanand Shukla / Greg Husak / William Turner / Frank Davenport / Chris Funk / Laura Harrison / Natasha Krell

    PLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 1, p e

    2021  Volume 0242883

    Abstract: Since 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced an unprecedented rise in acute food insecurity (AFI), and current projections for the year 2020 indicate that more than 100 million Africans are estimated to receive emergency food assistance. Climate- ... ...

    Abstract Since 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced an unprecedented rise in acute food insecurity (AFI), and current projections for the year 2020 indicate that more than 100 million Africans are estimated to receive emergency food assistance. Climate-driven drought is one of the main contributing factors to AFI, and timely and appropriate actions can be taken to mitigate impacts of AFI on lives and livelihoods through early warning systems. To support this goal, we use observations of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an indicator of seasonal drought conditions following a rainy season to show that delays in the onset of the rainy season (onset date) can be an effective early indicator of seasonal drought conditions. The core of this study is an evaluation of the relationship of the onset dates and peak NDVI, stratified by AFI risks, calculated using AFI reports by the United States Agency of International Development (USAID)-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). Several parts of SSA, mostly located in East Africa (EA), reported the "Crisis" phase of AFI-requiring emergency food assistance-at least one-third of the time between April 2011 to present. The results show that the onset date can effectively explain much of the interannual variability in peak NDVI in the regions with the highest AFI risk level, particularly in EA where the median of correlation (across all the Administrative Unit 2) varies between -0.42 to -0.68. In general, an onset date delay of at least 1 dekad (10 days) increases the likelihood of seasonal drought conditions. In the regions with highest risks of AFI, an onset delay of just 1 dekad doubles the chance of the standardized anomaly of peak NDVI being below -1, making a -1 anomaly the most probable outcome. In those regions, a 2-dekads delay in the onset date is associated with a very high probability (50%) of seasonal drought conditions (-1 standardized anomaly of NDVI). Finally, a multivariate regression analysis between standardized anomaly and onset date anomaly further substantiates the negative impacts of delay in onset date on NDVI anomaly. This relationship is statistically significant over the SSA as a whole, particularly in the EA region. These results imply that the onset date can be used as an additional critical tool to provide alerts of seasonal drought development in the most food-insecure regions of SSA. Early warning systems using onset date as a tool can help trigger effective mid-season responses to save human lives, livestock, and livelihoods, and, therefore, mitigate the adverse impacts of drought hazards.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 910
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article ; Online: Advancing early warning capabilities with CHIRPS-compatible NCEP GEFS precipitation forecasts

    Laura Harrison / Martin Landsfeld / Greg Husak / Frank Davenport / Shraddhanand Shukla / William Turner / Pete Peterson / Chris Funk

    Scientific Data, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2022  Volume 13

    Abstract: Measurement(s) volume of hydrological precipitation Technology Type(s) forecast bias correction Sample Characteristic - Organism precipitation Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system Sample Characteristic - Location ... ...

    Abstract Measurement(s) volume of hydrological precipitation Technology Type(s) forecast bias correction Sample Characteristic - Organism precipitation Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system Sample Characteristic - Location global
    Keywords Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Enhancing the Application of Earth Observations for Improved Environmental Decision-Making Using the Early Warning eXplorer (EWX)

    Shraddhanand Shukla / Martin Landsfeld / Michelle Anthony / Michael Budde / Gregory J. Husak / James Rowland / Chris Funk

    Frontiers in Climate, Vol

    2021  Volume 2

    Abstract: The mitigation of losses due to extreme climate events and long-term climate adaptation requires climate informed decision-making. In the past few decades, several remote sensing and modeled-based Earth observations (EOs) have been developed to provide ... ...

    Abstract The mitigation of losses due to extreme climate events and long-term climate adaptation requires climate informed decision-making. In the past few decades, several remote sensing and modeled-based Earth observations (EOs) have been developed to provide an unprecedented global overview and routine monitoring of climate and its impacts on vegetation and hydrologic conditions, with the goal of supporting informed decision-making. However, their usage in decision-making is particularly limited in climate-risk vulnerable and in situ data-scarce regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, due to lack of access to EOs. Here, we describe the Early Warning eXplorer (EWX), which was developed to address this crucial limitation and facilitate the application of EOs in decision-making, particularly in the food and water-insecure regions of the world. First, the EWX's core framework, which includes (i) the Viewer, (ii) GeoEngine, and (iii) Support Applications, is described. Then, a comprehensive overview of the Viewer, which is a web-based interface used to access EOs, is provided. This includes a description of (i) the maps and associated features to access gridded EO data and anomalies for different temporal averaging periods, (ii) time series graphs and associated features to access EOs aggregated over polygons such as administrative boundaries, and (iii) commonly used EOs served by the EWX that provide assessments of climate and vegetation conditions. Next, examples are provided to demonstrate how EWX can be used to monitor development, progression, spatial extent, and severity of climate-driven extreme events to support timely decisions related to mitigation of food insecurity and flooding impacts. Finally, the value of a regional implementation of EWX at the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) in Nairobi, Kenya, is highlighted. Regional implementation of the EWX facilitates access to regionally focused EOs and their availability at polygon boundaries most relevant to the local decision-makers. ...
    Keywords earth observation ; food security ; water security ; web service ; drought ; climate services ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article ; Online: Sending out an SOS

    Frank M Davenport / Shraddhanand Shukla / William Turner / Chris Funk / Natasha Krell / Laura Harrison / Greg Husak / Donghoon Lee / Seth Peterson

    Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 8, p

    using start of rainy season indicators for market price forecasting to support famine early warning

    2021  Volume 084050

    Abstract: We examine relationships between the start of rainy season (SOS) and sub-national grain (white maize) market price movements in five African countries. Our work is motivated by three factors: (a) some regions are seeing increasing volatility SOS timing; ( ...

    Abstract We examine relationships between the start of rainy season (SOS) and sub-national grain (white maize) market price movements in five African countries. Our work is motivated by three factors: (a) some regions are seeing increasing volatility SOS timing; (b) SOS represents the first observable occurrence in the agricultural season and starts a chain reaction of decisions that influence planting, labor allocation, and harvest—all of which can have direct impacts on local food prices and availability; and (c) pre- and post-harvest price movements provide key insights into supply-and-demand issues related to food insecurity. We start by exploring a number of different SOS definitions using varying reference periods to define whether an SOS is ‘on-time’ or ‘late’. We then compare how those different definitions perform in seasonal price forecasting models. Specifically, we examine if SOS indicators can predict price means over 6 and 9 month periods, or roughly the length of time from planting to market. We use different reference periods for defining ‘early’ versus ‘late’ seasonal starts based on the previous year’s start date, or median start dates over the past 3, 5, and 10 year periods. We then compare the out-of-sample forecast performance of univariate time-series models (autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)) with time-series (ARIMAX) models that include various SOS definitions as exogenous predictors. We find that using some form of SOS indicator (either an SOS anomaly or 1st month’s rainfall anomaly) leads to increased predictive power when examining prices over a 6 months window. However, the results vary considerably by country. We find the strongest performance of SOS indicators in central Ethiopia, southern Kenya, and southern Somalia. We find less evidence in support of the use of SOS indicators for price forecasting in Malawi and Mozambique.
    Keywords food security ; forecasting ; climate change ; Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ; TD1-1066 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350 ; Science ; Q ; Physics ; QC1-999
    Subject code 330
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher IOP Publishing
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article: Child health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparison of changes in climate and socio-economic factors

    Davenport, Frank / Chris Funk / Kathryn Grace / Shraddhanand Shukla

    Global environmental change. 2017 Sept., v. 46

    2017  

    Abstract: We compare changes in low birth weight and child malnutrition in 13 African countries under projected climate change versus socio-economic development scenarios. Climate scenarios are created by linking surface temperature gradients with declines in ... ...

    Abstract We compare changes in low birth weight and child malnutrition in 13 African countries under projected climate change versus socio-economic development scenarios. Climate scenarios are created by linking surface temperature gradients with declines in seasonal rainfall sea along with warming values of 1°C and 2°C. Socio-economic scenarios are developed by assigning regionally specific changes in access to household electricity and mother's education. Using these scenarios, in combination with established models of children's health, we investigate and compare the changes in predicted health outcomes. We find that the negative effects of warming and drying on child stunting could be mitigated by positive development trends associated with increasing mothers’ educational status and household access to electricity. We find less potential for these trends to mitigate how warming and drying trends impact birth weights. In short, under warming and drying, the risk of more malnourished children is greater than the risk of more children with low birth weights, but increases in child malnutrition could be averted in regions that increase access to educational resources and basic infrastructure.
    Keywords children ; climate ; climate change ; drying ; educational resources ; educational status ; electricity ; growth retardation ; infrastructure ; low birth weight ; malnutrition ; models ; mothers ; rain ; risk ; socioeconomic development ; socioeconomic factors ; surface temperature ; temperature profiles ; Sub-Saharan Africa
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2017-09
    Size p. 72-87.
    Publishing place Elsevier Ltd
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 30436-0
    ISSN 1056-9367 ; 0959-3780
    ISSN 1056-9367 ; 0959-3780
    DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.009
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  7. Article: Linking climate change and health outcomes: Examining the relationship between temperature, precipitation and birth weight in Africa

    Grace, Kathryn / Christopher Funk / Frank Davenport / Heidi Hanson / Shraddhanand Shukla

    Global environmental change. 2015 Nov., v. 35

    2015  

    Abstract: This paper examined the relationship between birth weight, precipitation, and temperature in 19 African countries. We matched recorded birth weights from Demographic and Health Surveys covering 1986 through 2010 with gridded monthly precipitation and ... ...

    Abstract This paper examined the relationship between birth weight, precipitation, and temperature in 19 African countries. We matched recorded birth weights from Demographic and Health Surveys covering 1986 through 2010 with gridded monthly precipitation and temperature data derived from satellite and ground-based weather stations. Observed weather patterns during various stages of pregnancy were also used to examine the effect of temperature and precipitation on birth weight outcomes. In our empirical model we allowed the effect of weather factors to vary by the dominant food production strategy (livelihood zone) in a given region as well as by household wealth, mother's education and birth season. This allowed us to determine if certain populations are more or less vulnerable to unexpected weather changes after adjusting for known covariates. Finally we measured effect size by observing differences in birth weight outcomes in women who have one low birth weight experience and at least one healthy birth weight baby. The results indicated that climate does indeed impact birth weight and at a level comparable, in some cases, to the impact of increasing women's education or household electricity status.
    Keywords atmospheric precipitation ; climate ; climate change ; education ; electricity ; food production ; health surveys ; household income ; livelihood ; low birth weight ; models ; pregnancy ; satellites ; temperature ; weather stations ; women ; Africa
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2015-11
    Size p. 125-137.
    Publishing place Elsevier Ltd
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 30436-0
    ISSN 1056-9367 ; 0959-3780
    ISSN 1056-9367 ; 0959-3780
    DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.010
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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