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  1. Article ; Online: Asymptomatiske personer står for stor andel af COVID-19-smitte

    Simonsen, Lone

    Simonsen , L 2020 , ' Asymptomatiske personer står for stor andel af COVID-19-smitte ' , Ugeskrift for Laeger , bind 2020 , nr. 9 . < https://ugeskriftet.dk/videnskab/asymptomatiske-personer-star-stor-andel-af-covid-19-smitte >

    2020  

    Abstract: Smittespredning fra klinisk raske spiller en stor rolle for den hurtige udbredelse af coronavirus. ...

    Abstract Smittespredning fra klinisk raske spiller en stor rolle for den hurtige udbredelse af coronavirus.
    Keywords covid19
    Language Danish
    Publishing date 2020-04-21
    Publishing country dk
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: The counterintuitive implications of superspreading diseases.

    Nielsen, Bjarke Frost / Sneppen, Kim / Simonsen, Lone

    Nature communications

    2023  Volume 14, Issue 1, Page(s) 6954

    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-10-31
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2553671-0
    ISSN 2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
    ISSN (online) 2041-1723
    ISSN 2041-1723
    DOI 10.1038/s41467-023-42612-9
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  3. Article ; Online: Disentangling the relationship between cancer mortality and COVID-19

    Hansen, Chelsea L. / Viboud, Cécile / Simonsen, Lone

    medRxiv

    Abstract: Several countries have reported that deaths with a primary code of cancer did not rise during COVID-19 pandemic waves compared to baseline pre-pandemic levels. This is in apparent conflict with findings from cohort studies where cancer has been ... ...

    Abstract Several countries have reported that deaths with a primary code of cancer did not rise during COVID-19 pandemic waves compared to baseline pre-pandemic levels. This is in apparent conflict with findings from cohort studies where cancer has been identified as a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality. Here we further elucidate the relationship between cancer mortality and COVID-19 on a population level in the US by testing the impact of death certificate coding changes during the pandemic and leveraging heterogeneity in pandemic intensity across US states. We computed excess mortality from weekly deaths during 2014-2020 nationally and for three states with distinct COVID-19 wave timing (NY, TX, and CA). We compared pandemic-related mortality patterns from underlying and multiple causes (MC) death data for six types of cancer and high-risk chronic conditions such as diabetes and Alzheimer’s. Any coding change should be captured in MC data. Nationally in 2020, we found only modest excess MC cancer mortality (~12,000 deaths), representing a 2% elevation over baseline. Mortality elevation was measurably higher for less deadly cancers (breast, colorectal, and hematologic, 2-5%) than cancers with a poor 5-year survival (lung and pancreatic, 0-1%). In comparison, there was substantial elevation in MC deaths from diabetes (39%) and Alzheimer’s (31%). Homing in on the intense spring 2020 COVID-19 wave in NY, mortality elevation was 2-15% for cancer and 126% and 55% for diabetes and Alzheimer’s, respectively. Simulations based on a demographic model indicate that differences in life expectancy for these conditions, along with the age and size of the at-risk populations, largely explain the observed differences in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.In conclusion, we found limited elevation in cancer mortality during COVID-19 waves, even after considering coding changes. Our demographic model predicted low expected excess mortality in populations living with certain types of cancer, even if cancer is a risk factor for COVID-19 fatality risk, due to competing mortality risk. We also find a moderate increase in excess mortality from blood cancers, aligned with other types of observational studies. While our study concentrates on the immediate consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer mortality, further research should consider the pandemic impact on hospitalizations, delayed diagnosis/treatment and risk of Long COVID in cancer patients.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-01-03
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2024.01.02.24300715
    Database COVID19

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  4. Article ; Online: A comprehensive look at the COVID-19 pandemic death toll.

    Simonsen, Lone / Viboud, Cecile

    eLife

    2021  Volume 10

    Abstract: COVID-19 'excess mortality' has been estimated for more than 100 countries and shows a dramatic death toll in many countries. ...

    Abstract COVID-19 'excess mortality' has been estimated for more than 100 countries and shows a dramatic death toll in many countries.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Humans ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-08-12
    Publishing country England
    Document type Editorial ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 2687154-3
    ISSN 2050-084X ; 2050-084X
    ISSN (online) 2050-084X
    ISSN 2050-084X
    DOI 10.7554/eLife.71974
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  5. Article ; Online: The 1919-21 influenza pandemic in Greenland.

    Ingholt, Mathias Mølbak / Simonsen, Lone / Mamelund, Svenn-Erik / Noahsen, Paneeraq / van Wijhe, Maarten

    International journal of circumpolar health

    2024  Volume 83, Issue 1, Page(s) 2325711

    Abstract: In Alaska, the 1918-20 influenza pandemic was devastating, with mortality rates up to 90% of the population, while in other arctic regions in northern Sweden and Norway mortality was considerably lower. We investigated the timing and age-patterns in ... ...

    Abstract In Alaska, the 1918-20 influenza pandemic was devastating, with mortality rates up to 90% of the population, while in other arctic regions in northern Sweden and Norway mortality was considerably lower. We investigated the timing and age-patterns in excess mortality in Greenland during the period 1918-21 and compare these to other epidemics and the 1889-92 pandemic. We accessed the Greenlandic National Archives and transcribed all deaths from 1880 to 1921 by age, geography, and cause of death. We estimated monthly excess mortality and studied the spatial-temporal patterns of the pandemics and compared them to other mortality crises in the 40-year period. The 1918-21 influenza pandemic arrived in Greenland in the summer of 1919, one year delayed due to ship traffic interruptions during the winter months. We found that 5.2% of the Greenland population died of the pandemic with substantial variability between counties (range, 0.1% to 11%). We did not see the typical pandemic age-pattern of high young-adult mortality, possibly due to high baseline mortality in this age-group or remoteness. However, despite substantial mortality, the mortality impact was not standing out relative to other mortality crises, or of similar devastation reported in Alaskan populations.
    MeSH term(s) Adult ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Greenland/epidemiology ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Alaska ; Archives
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-06
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1386707-6
    ISSN 2242-3982 ; 1239-9736
    ISSN (online) 2242-3982
    ISSN 1239-9736
    DOI 10.1080/22423982.2024.2325711
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  6. Article ; Online: Spatial model of Ebola outbreaks contained by behavior change.

    Halvorsen, Gustav S / Simonsen, Lone / Sneppen, Kim

    PloS one

    2022  Volume 17, Issue 3, Page(s) e0264425

    Abstract: The West African Ebola (2014-2016) epidemic caused an estimated 11.310 deaths and massive social and economic disruption. The epidemic was comprised of many local outbreaks of varying sizes. However, often local outbreaks recede before the arrival of ... ...

    Abstract The West African Ebola (2014-2016) epidemic caused an estimated 11.310 deaths and massive social and economic disruption. The epidemic was comprised of many local outbreaks of varying sizes. However, often local outbreaks recede before the arrival of international aid or susceptible depletion. We modeled Ebola virus transmission under the effect of behavior changes acting as a local inhibitor. A spatial model is used to simulate Ebola epidemics. Our findings suggest that behavior changes can explain why local Ebola outbreaks recede before substantial international aid was mobilized during the 2014-2016 epidemic.
    MeSH term(s) Africa, Western/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Ebolavirus ; Epidemics ; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola ; Humans
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-03-14
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2267670-3
    ISSN 1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
    ISSN (online) 1932-6203
    ISSN 1932-6203
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0264425
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  7. Article ; Online: Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

    Nielsen, Bjarke Frost / Eilersen, Andreas / Simonsen, Lone / Sneppen, Kim

    Epidemics

    2022  Volume 40, Page(s) 100613

    Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain has caused pronounced superspreading events, reflecting a disease characterized by overdispersion, where about 10% of infected people cause 80% of infections. New variants of the disease have different person-to-person ... ...

    Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain has caused pronounced superspreading events, reflecting a disease characterized by overdispersion, where about 10% of infected people cause 80% of infections. New variants of the disease have different person-to-person variability in viral load, suggesting for example that the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant is more infectious but relatively less prone to superspreading. Meanwhile, non-pharmaceutical mitigation of the pandemic has focused on limiting social contacts (lockdowns, regulations on gatherings) and decreasing transmission risk through mask wearing and social distancing. Using a mathematical model, we show that the competitive advantage of disease variants may heavily depend on the restrictions imposed. In particular, we find that lockdowns exert an evolutionary pressure which favours variants with lower levels of overdispersion. Our results suggest that overdispersion is an evolutionarily unstable trait, with a tendency for more homogeneously spreading variants to eventually dominate.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; Communicable Disease Control ; Humans ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-07-30
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2467993-8
    ISSN 1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
    ISSN (online) 1878-0067
    ISSN 1755-4365
    DOI 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100613
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  8. Article ; Online: Integrated vaccine economics for countries transitioning from Gavi support.

    van Wijhe, Maarten / Simonsen, Lone

    The Lancet. Global health

    2019  Volume 7, Issue 12, Page(s) e1591–e1592

    MeSH term(s) Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Immunization Programs ; Rotavirus ; Vaccination ; Vaccines
    Chemical Substances Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-11-09
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 2723488-5
    ISSN 2214-109X ; 2214-109X
    ISSN (online) 2214-109X
    ISSN 2214-109X
    DOI 10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30461-9
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  9. Article ; Online: COVID-19 Superspreading Suggests Mitigation by Social Network Modulation.

    Nielsen, Bjarke Frost / Simonsen, Lone / Sneppen, Kim

    Physical review letters

    2021  Volume 126, Issue 11, Page(s) 118301

    Abstract: Although COVID-19 has caused severe suffering globally, the efficacy of nonpharmaceutical interventions has been greater than typical models have predicted. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that the pandemic is characterized by superspreading. Capturing ... ...

    Abstract Although COVID-19 has caused severe suffering globally, the efficacy of nonpharmaceutical interventions has been greater than typical models have predicted. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that the pandemic is characterized by superspreading. Capturing this phenomenon theoretically requires modeling at the scale of individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that superspreading drastically enhances mitigations which reduce the overall personal contact number and that social clustering increases this effect.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Infection Control/methods ; Infection Control/statistics & numerical data ; Models, Statistical ; Pandemics ; Physical Distancing ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ; Social Networking
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-04-02
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 208853-8
    ISSN 1079-7114 ; 0031-9007
    ISSN (online) 1079-7114
    ISSN 0031-9007
    DOI 10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.118301
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    In stock of ZB MED Bonn / Germany

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  10. Article ; Online: The association between influenza vaccination uptake and influenza and pneumonia-associated deaths in the United States.

    Newall, Anthony T / Nazareno, Allen L / Muscatello, David J / Boettiger, David / Viboud, Cécile / Simonsen, Lone / Turner, Robin M

    Vaccine

    2024  Volume 42, Issue 8, Page(s) 2044–2050

    Abstract: Background: The influenza mortality burden has remained substantial in the United States (US) despite relatively high levels of influenza vaccine uptake. This has led to questions regarding the effectiveness of the program against this outcome, ... ...

    Abstract Background: The influenza mortality burden has remained substantial in the United States (US) despite relatively high levels of influenza vaccine uptake. This has led to questions regarding the effectiveness of the program against this outcome, particularly in the elderly. The aim of this evaluation was to develop and explore a new approach to estimating the population-level effect of influenza vaccination uptake on pneumonia and influenza (P&I) associated deaths.
    Methods: Using publicly available data we examined the association between state-level influenza vaccination and all-age P&I associated deaths in the US from the 2013-2014 influenza season to the 2018-2019 season. In the main model, we evaluated influenza vaccine uptake in all those age 6 months and older. We used a mixed-effects regression analysis with generalised least squares estimation to account for within state correlation in P&I mortality.
    Results: From 2013-2014 through 2018-2019, the total number of all-age P&I related deaths during the influenza seasons was 480,111. The mean overall cumulative influenza vaccine uptake (age 6 months and older) across the states and years considered was 46.7%, with higher uptake (64.8%) observed in those aged ≥ 65 years. We found that overall influenza vaccine uptake (6 months and older) had a statistically significant protective association with the P&I death rate. This translated to a 0.33 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.47) per 100,000 population reduction in P&I deaths in the influenza season per 1% increase in overall influenza vaccine uptake.
    Discussion: These results using a population-level statistical approach provide additional support for the overall effectiveness of the US influenza vaccination program. This reassurance is critical given the importance of ensuring confidence in this life saving program. Future research is needed to expand on our approach using more refined data.
    MeSH term(s) Aged ; Humans ; United States/epidemiology ; Influenza, Human ; Influenza Vaccines ; Vaccination ; Pneumonia/prevention & control ; Immunization Programs ; Seasons
    Chemical Substances Influenza Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-24
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 605674-x
    ISSN 1873-2518 ; 0264-410X
    ISSN (online) 1873-2518
    ISSN 0264-410X
    DOI 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.01.089
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