Conference proceedings ; Online: From Predictability to Controllability
XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Control Simulation Experiment
2023
Abstract: The Observing Systems Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a powerful approach to evaluate observing systems and data assimilation methods in numerical weather prediction (NWP). In this study, we extend the OSSE and design the Control Simulation Experiment ( ... ...
Abstract | The Observing Systems Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a powerful approach to evaluate observing systems and data assimilation methods in numerical weather prediction (NWP). In this study, we extend the OSSE and design the Control Simulation Experiment (CSE), in which we add perturbations to the nature run (NR) and try to modify it to a desired state. Investigating what perturbations are effective to avoid a high-impact weather event would be useful to understand the controllability of such an event. Since the weather system is chaotic, and even more so for disturbances, small differences generally lead to big differences, particularly for high-impact weather events. This suggests potentially effective control, i.e., small interventions would lead to big differences for high-impact weather events. We first tested this idea with the Lorenz-63 3-variable model and found an effective approach to control the trajectory to stay in one side of the Lorenz’s butterfly attractor without shifting to the other. Next, we tested with the Lorenz-96 40-variable model to avoid the occurrences of extreme values, mimicking to avoid extreme events in NWP. Finally, we further extended the idea to test with realistic global and regional NWP models for a typhoon case and a local heavy rainfall case, respectively. This presentation will summarize the concept and methodology of CSE with some proof-of-concept demonstrations with the toy models and realistic NWP models. This is an attempt to a potential paradigm change of NWP research from decades of predictability to the new era of controllability. |
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Subject code | 306 |
Language | English |
Publishing country | de |
Document type | Conference proceedings ; Online |
Database | BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection) |
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