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Article ; Online: Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change.

Liang, Zhuoran / Sun, Laixiang / Tian, Zhan / Fischer, Günther / Yan, Huimin

PNAS nexus

2023 Volume 2, Issue 3, Page(s) pgad057

Abstract: The rapid growth of China's demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture ... ...

Abstract	The rapid growth of China's demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture under climate change and the extent of China's dependence on world food markets. While the existing literature in both agronomy and climate economics indicates a dominance of the adverse impacts of climate change on rice, wheat, and maize yields, there is a lack of study to assess changes in multi-cropping opportunities induced by climate change. Multi-cropping benefits crop production by harvesting more than once per year from a given plot. To address this important gap, we established a procedure within the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) modeling framework to assess future spatial shifts of multi-cropping conditions. The assessment was based on an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the phase five of coupled model inter-comparison project and accounted for the water scarcity constraints. The results show significant northward extensions of single-, double-, and triple-cropping zones in the future which would provide good opportunities for crop-rotation-based adaptation. The increasing multi-cropping opportunities would be able to boost the annual grain production potential by an average scale of 89(±49) Mt at the current irrigation efficiency and 143(±46) Mt at the modernized irrigation efficiency with improvement between the baseline (1981-2010) and the mid-21st century (2041-2070).
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-14
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2752-6542
ISSN (online)	2752-6542
DOI	10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad057
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Book ; Online: Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities

Sun, Qi / Olschewski, Patrick / Wei, Jianhui / Tian, Zhan / Sun, Laixiang / Kunstmann, Harald / Laux, Patrick

eISSN: 1607-7938

2024

Abstract: There is evidence of an increased frequency of rapid intensification events of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global offshore regions. This will not only result in increased peak wind speeds but may lead to more intense heavy precipitation events, leading to ...

Abstract	There is evidence of an increased frequency of rapid intensification events of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global offshore regions. This will not only result in increased peak wind speeds but may lead to more intense heavy precipitation events, leading to flooding in coastal regions. Therefore, high impacts are expected for urban agglomerations in coastal regions such as the densely populated Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. Regional climate models (RCMs) such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are state-of-the-art tools commonly applied to predict TCs. However, typhoon simulations are connected with high uncertainties due to the high number of parameterization schemes of relevant physical processes (including possible interactions between the parameterization schemes) such as cumulus (CU) and microphysics (MP), as well as other crucial model settings such as domain setup, initial times, and spectral nudging. Since previous studies mostly focus on either individual typhoon cases or individual parameterization schemes, in this study a more comprehensive analysis is provided by considering four different typhoons of different intensity categories with landfall near the PRD, i.e. Typhoon Neoguri (2008), Typhoon Hagupit (2008), Typhoon Hato (2017), and Typhoon Usagi (2013), as well as two different schemes for CU and MP, respectively. Moreover, the impact of the model initialization and the driving data is studied by using three different initial times and two spectral nudging settings. Compared with the best-track reference data, the results show that the four typhoons show some consistency. For track bias, nudging only horizontal wind has a positive effect on reducing the track distance bias; for intensity, compared with a model explicitly resolving cumulus convection, i.e. without cumulus parameterization (CuOFF; nudging potential temperature and horizontal wind; late initial time), using the Kain–Fritsch scheme (KF; nudging only horizontal wind; early initial time) configuration shows relatively ...
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-02-20
Publishing country	de
Document type	Book ; Online
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Article ; Online: Application of stable index and transport index for regional air pollution over Twain-Hu Basin

Yanyu Yue / Yongqing Bai / Huan He / Lin Xu / Xuan Chen / Yue Zhou / Zijun Tang / Tian Zhan

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Vol

2023 Volume 10

Abstract: Affected by stagnant and transmission air pollution, Regional pollution day (RPD) frequently occurs in Twain-Hu Basin. In the winter halfaear of 2015–2021 (November to March of following year), the Regional pollution days reached 331 days. A variety of ... ...

Abstract	Affected by stagnant and transmission air pollution, Regional pollution day (RPD) frequently occurs in Twain-Hu Basin. In the winter halfaear of 2015–2021 (November to March of following year), the Regional pollution days reached 331 days. A variety of weather systems together lead to regional air pollution. Based on the observation data of PM2.5 concentration and multi-source meteorological elements during the study period, the weather types of Regional pollution days in Twain-Hu Basin can be divided into four types by using the T-model (T-PCA) classification method, namely, uniform pressure field (42 days), front of cold high-pressure bottom (180 days), back of high-pressure (81 days), and low pressure with an inverted trough field (28 days). Under the influence of uniform pressure field and front of cold high-pressure bottom, it shows the meteorological characteristics of static pollution and transmission pollution, respectively. A stable index (STI) is constructed to describe the PM2.5 pollution caused by the stagnant weather, and a transport index (TRI) is constructed to describe the PM2.5 pollution caused by the transport weather. They have a satisfactory evaluation effect on PM2.5 pollution under the influence of uniform pressure field and front of cold high-pressure bottom, respectively. Interestingly, the correlation coefficients between the pollution index (A stable index + transport index) and PM2.5 concentration could increase obviously to 0.48–0.71 when A stable index and transport index are considered comprehensively. Furthermore, the validation in the winter halfaear of 2021/2022 show that the correlation coefficient of most stations is above 0.70. Therefore, satisfactory performance in validation suggests that this index construction method can be well applied to regional pollution assessment in Twain-Hu Basin.
Keywords	meteorological conditions ; regional pollution day ; stable pollution index ; transport pollution index ; Twain-Hu Basin ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
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Article: Evaluation of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China using a 1.5 km mesh convection‑permitting regional climate model

Dong, Guangtao / Jiang, Zhiyu / Wang, Ya / Tian, Zhan / Liu, Junguo

Climate dynamics. 2022 Oct., v. 59, no. 7-8

2022

Abstract: Realistic representation of rainfall characteristics on local scales by state-of-the-art climate models remains a key challenge, especially on sub-daily timescales. In this study, the convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model ... ...

Abstract	Realistic representation of rainfall characteristics on local scales by state-of-the-art climate models remains a key challenge, especially on sub-daily timescales. In this study, the convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configured with 1.5 km grid spacing is used to simulate precipitation on sub-daily timescales over the Yangtze River Delta Region of China for continuous 10 years (2005–2014). The simulations are compared with rain gauge observations, reanalysis data, and the simulations of a lower resolution WRF with 9 km grid spacing that has a parameterization of convection. The results show that precipitation over the region can be well captured by using the convection-permitting model (CPM). Furthermore, the intensity, duration and coverage of these precipitation events can be more accurately described by the CPM. On the convection timescales of 1–4 h, especially for heavy rainfall events, the CPM is more accurate than the convection-parameterized model in capturing the short-duration events, which may be due to its better account of physical processes related to the convection on the convection-permitting scale. In addition, the extreme events which are more localized and with short-duration can be represented better by the CPM while the convection-parameterized model tends to produce widespread precipitation events covering more grid cells than observations Biases of the simulation by the 9-km mesh convection-parameterized mode appear to be related to the deficiencies in the representation of convections.
Keywords	climate ; climate models ; convection ; dynamics ; rain ; rain gauges ; river deltas ; China ; Yangtze River
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-10
Size	p. 2257-2273.
Publishing place	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	1471747-5
ISSN	1432-0894 ; 0930-7575
ISSN (online)	1432-0894
ISSN	0930-7575
DOI	10.1007/s00382-022-06208-1
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Article ; Online: Spatial and temporal distribution and trend in flood and drought disasters in East China.

Shi, Jun / Cui, Linli / Tian, Zhan

Environmental research

2020 Volume 185, Page(s) 109406

Abstract: Frequent floods and droughts have brought serious impact on economy, society and living environment in East China. Based on the disaster census data of rainstorm-induced flood (including landslide and mud-rock flow) and drought disasters in 637 counties ( ...

Abstract	Frequent floods and droughts have brought serious impact on economy, society and living environment in East China. Based on the disaster census data of rainstorm-induced flood (including landslide and mud-rock flow) and drought disasters in 637 counties (districts) in East China, the distribution and change of flood and drought disasters were analyzed. The results indicate that the number of records of flood disaster increased at a rate of 77.4 times per decade from 1984 to 2010, while that of drought disaster had no significant trend in East China as a whole. Population affected by floods and droughts increased at rates of 8.7 million and 3.8 million persons per decade, respectively, and the direct economic losses increased at rates of 12.6 billion and 1.9 billion Chinese Yuan per decade respectively, whereas the affected area and the total failure area of crops caused by floods and droughts showed no clear trends. Spatially, the number of records of floods in the southern parts of East China was higher than that in the northern parts, and Anhui, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian had more records of affected population, deaths, affected crops, total crop failures and direct economic losses, as well as more affected population and deaths. The affected crop area and total crop failure area by floods were also larger in Anhui, Jiangxi and Jiangsu. Drought disaster had higher number of records of affected population, affected crops, total crop failures and direct economic losses in Anhui, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Shandong, and also affected more people and larger area of crops, leading to larger area of total crop failures and higher direct economic losses in Anhui, Jiangxi and Shandong. The results can provide reference for disaster risk regionalization and environmental risk assessment in East China.
MeSH term(s)	China ; Disasters ; Droughts ; Floods ; Humans ; Risk Assessment
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-03-18
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	205699-9
ISSN	1096-0953 ; 0013-9351
ISSN (online)	1096-0953
ISSN	0013-9351
DOI	10.1016/j.envres.2020.109406
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Article: Spatial and temporal distribution and trend in flood and drought disasters in East China

Shi, Jun / Cui, Linli / Tian, Zhan

Environmental research. 2020 June, v. 185

2020

Abstract	Frequent floods and droughts have brought serious impact on economy, society and living environment in East China. Based on the disaster census data of rainstorm-induced flood (including landslide and mud-rock flow) and drought disasters in 637 counties (districts) in East China, the distribution and change of flood and drought disasters were analyzed. The results indicate that the number of records of flood disaster increased at a rate of 77.4 times per decade from 1984 to 2010, while that of drought disaster had no significant trend in East China as a whole. Population affected by floods and droughts increased at rates of 8.7 million and 3.8 million persons per decade, respectively, and the direct economic losses increased at rates of 12.6 billion and 1.9 billion Chinese Yuan per decade respectively, whereas the affected area and the total failure area of crops caused by floods and droughts showed no clear trends. Spatially, the number of records of floods in the southern parts of East China was higher than that in the northern parts, and Anhui, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian had more records of affected population, deaths, affected crops, total crop failures and direct economic losses, as well as more affected population and deaths. The affected crop area and total crop failure area by floods were also larger in Anhui, Jiangxi and Jiangsu. Drought disaster had higher number of records of affected population, affected crops, total crop failures and direct economic losses in Anhui, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Shandong, and also affected more people and larger area of crops, leading to larger area of total crop failures and higher direct economic losses in Anhui, Jiangxi and Shandong. The results can provide reference for disaster risk regionalization and environmental risk assessment in East China.
Keywords	census data ; crop failure ; drought ; environmental assessment ; landslides ; people ; research ; risk ; China
Language	English
Dates of publication	2020-06
Publishing place	Elsevier Inc.
Document type	Article
Note	NAL-AP-2-clean
ZDB-ID	205699-9
ISSN	1096-0953 ; 0013-9351
ISSN (online)	1096-0953
ISSN	0013-9351
DOI	10.1016/j.envres.2020.109406
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Article ; Online: Rapid Determination of Polysaccharides in Cistanche Tubulosa Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Combined with Machine Learning.

Wang, Yu / Tian, Zhan-Ping / Xie, Jia-Jia / Luo, Ying / Yao, Jun / Shen, Jing

Journal of AOAC International

2022 Volume 106, Issue 4, Page(s) 1118–1125

Abstract: Background: Cistanche tubulosa, as a homology of medicine and food, not only has a unique medicinal value but also is widely used in healthcare products. Polysaccharide is one of its important quality indicators.: Objective: In this study, an ... ...

Abstract	Background: Cistanche tubulosa, as a homology of medicine and food, not only has a unique medicinal value but also is widely used in healthcare products. Polysaccharide is one of its important quality indicators. Objective: In this study, an analytical model based on near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy combined with machine learning was established to predict the polysaccharide content of C. tubulosa. Methods: The polysaccharide content in the samples determined by the phenol-sulfuric acid method was used as a reference value, and machine learning was applied to relate the spectral information to the reference value. Dividing the samples into a calibration set and a prediction set using the Kennard-Stone algorithm. The model was optimized by various preprocessing methods, including Savitzky-Golay (SG), standard normal variate (SNV), multiple scattering correction (MSC), first-order derivative (FD), second-order derivative (SD), and combinations of them. Variable selection was performed through the successive projections algorithm (SPA) and stability competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (sCARS). Four machine learning models were used to build quantitative models, including the random forest (RF), partial least-squares (PLS), principal component regression (PCR), and support vector machine (SVM). The evaluation indexes of the model were the coefficient of determination (R2), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and residual prediction deviation (RPD). Results: RF performs best among the four machine learning models. R2c （calibration set coefficient of determination） and RMSEC （root mean square error of the calibration set）, %, were 0.9763. and 0.3527 for calibration, respectively. R2p （prediction set coefficient of determination）, RMSEP （root mean square error of the prediction set）, %, and RPD were 0.9230, 0.5130, and 3.33 for prediction, respectively. Conclusion: The results indicate that NIR combined with the RF is an effective method applied to the quality evaluation of the polysaccharides of C. tubulosa. Highlights: Four quantitative models were developed to predict the polysaccharide content in C. tubulosa, and good results were obtained. The characteristic variables were basically determined by the sCARS algorithm, and the corresponding characteristic groups were analyzed.
MeSH term(s)	Machine Learning ; Spectroscopy, Near-Infrared ; Cistanche/chemistry ; Polysaccharides/chemistry ; Time Factors
Chemical Substances	Polysaccharides
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-09
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1103149-9
ISSN	1944-7922 ; 1060-3271
ISSN (online)	1944-7922
ISSN	1060-3271
DOI	10.1093/jaoacint/qsac144
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Article ; Online: The highly selective and sensitive fluorescence probe for detection of copper (II) ions and its bioimaging in vitro and vivo.

Wang, Yi-Ru / Tan, Yu-Wei / Zhang, Ai-Hong / Li, Yuan-Yuan / Hu, Jia-Ling / Wu, Ji-Rou / Tian, Zhan-Qiang / Ting-Liang / Kang, Yan-Fei

Spectrochimica acta. Part A, Molecular and biomolecular spectroscopy

2024 Volume 316, Page(s) 124328

Abstract: We designed and developed the probe W-3 for detection of ... ...

Abstract	We designed and developed the probe W-3 for detection of Cu
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-23
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	210413-1
ISSN	1873-3557 ; 0370-8322 ; 0584-8539 ; 1386-1425
ISSN (online)	1873-3557
ISSN	0370-8322 ; 0584-8539 ; 1386-1425
DOI	10.1016/j.saa.2024.124328
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Book ; Online: Key ingredients in regional climate modeling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities

Sun, Qi / Olschewski, Patrick / Wei, Jianhui / Tian, Zhan / Sun, Laixiang / Kunstmann, Harald / Laux, Patrick

eISSN: 1607-7938

2023

Abstract	There is evidence of an increased frequency of rapid intensification events of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global offshore regions. This will not only result in increased peak wind speeds but may lead to more intense heavy precipitation events, leading to flooding in coastal regions. Therefore, high impacts are expected for urban agglomerations in coastal regions such as the densely-populated Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. Regional climate models (RCMs) such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are state-of-the-art tools commonly applied to predict TCs. However, typhoon simulations are connected with high uncertainties due to the high number of parameterization schemes of relevant physical processes (including possible interactions between the parameterization schemes) such as Cumulus (CU) and Micro Physics (MP), and other crucial model settings such as domain setup, initial times, and spectral nudging. Since previous studies mostly focus on either individual typhoon cases or individual parameterization schemes, in this study a more comprehensive analysis is provided by considering four different typhoons of different intensity categories with landfall near the PRD, i.e., Neoguri (2008), Hagupit (2008), Hato (2017), and Usagi (2013), as well as two different schemes for Cu and MP, respectively. Moreover, the impact of the model initialization and the driving data is studied by using three different initial times and two spectral nudging settings. Compared with the best-track reference data, the results show that four typhoons show some consistency. For track bias, nudging only horizontal wind has a positive effect on reducing the track distance error; for intensity, compared with a convective-permitting (CP; nudging potential temperature and horizontal wind; late initial time) model, using Kain-Fritsch scheme (KF; nudging only horizontal wind; early initial time) configuration shows relatively lower minimum sea level pressures and higher maximum wind speeds which means stronger typhoon ...
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-05
Publishing country	de
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: The potential contribution of growing rapeseed in winter fallow fields across Yangtze River Basin to energy and food security in China

Tian, Zhan / Ji, Yinghao / Xu, Hanqing / Qiu, Huanguang / Sun, Laixiang / Zhong, Honglin / Liu, Junguo

Resources, conservation, and recycling. 2021 Jan., v. 164

2021

Abstract: To solve the energy crisis and protect the ecological environment has been the central concern of the sustainable development debate. The reproducibility and lower environmental impacts of bioenergy have attracted increasing attention in the debate. This ...

Abstract	To solve the energy crisis and protect the ecological environment has been the central concern of the sustainable development debate. The reproducibility and lower environmental impacts of bioenergy have attracted increasing attention in the debate. This research investigates the potentials of growing rapeseed in winter fallow fields across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) to serve the goal of boosting bioenergy production and improving edible oil security in China. It first quantifies the extent of winter fallow fields in the Basin and identifies the accurate starting and ending dates of the fallowing at the grid-cell level. It then matches the fallowing periods with the growing period grid-by-grid and assesses the current and future potentials of rapeseed production across the matched grid-cells in the region. The assessments take into consideration of climate change adaptations on sowing dates and on the choice of varieties with suitable growth cycle length. Finally, by coupling the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model and CHINAGRO-II economic model, this research simulates economically meaningful levels of rapeseeds production and trade for 2020 and 2030. A 60% realization of the production potential would increase total rapeseed supply by 9.1 million tons, reduce China's rapeseed import to zero and further reduce soybean import by 8.1 million tons in 2020. In 2030, the import of rapeseed would be reduced from 15 million tons under baseline to 7.3 million tons.
Keywords	agroecological zones ; basins ; bioenergy ; climate change ; cooking fats and oils ; econometric models ; energy ; environment ; environmental impact ; fallow ; fields ; food security ; imports ; length ; rapeseed ; recycling ; reproducibility ; research ; sowing date ; soybeans ; supply ; sustainable development ; varieties ; watersheds ; winter ; China ; Yangtze River
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-01
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
Note	NAL-light
ZDB-ID	1498716-8
ISSN	0921-3449
ISSN	0921-3449
DOI	10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105159
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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