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Article ; Online: Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

Toll, Velle / Post, Piia

Theor Appl Climatol. 2018 Apr., v. 132, no. 1-2 p.647-662

2018

Abstract: Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965–2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture ... ...

Abstract	Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965–2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.
Keywords	temperature ; winter ; Baltic Sea
Language	English
Dates of publication	2018-04
Size	p. 647-662.
Publishing place	Springer Vienna
Document type	Article ; Online
ZDB-ID	1463177-5
ISSN	1434-4483 ; 0177-798X
ISSN (online)	1434-4483
ISSN	0177-798X
DOI	10.1007/s00704-017-2114-9
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Author Correction: Weak average liquid-cloud-water response to anthropogenic aerosols.

Toll, Velle / Christensen, Matthew / Quaas, Johannes / Bellouin, Nicolas

Nature

2020 Volume 577, Issue 7791, Page(s) E3–E5

Abstract: An Amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. ...

Abstract	An Amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-01-02
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Published Erratum
ZDB-ID	120714-3
ISSN	1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
ISSN (online)	1476-4687
ISSN	0028-0836
DOI	10.1038/s41586-019-1838-3
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Article ; Online: Weak average liquid-cloud-water response to anthropogenic aerosols.

Toll, Velle / Christensen, Matthew / Quaas, Johannes / Bellouin, Nicolas

Nature

2019 Volume 572, Issue 7767, Page(s) 51–55

Abstract: The cooling of the Earth's climate through the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds offsets an unknown fraction of greenhouse gas warming. An increase in the amount of water inside liquid-phase clouds induced by aerosols, through the suppression ... ...

Abstract	The cooling of the Earth's climate through the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds offsets an unknown fraction of greenhouse gas warming. An increase in the amount of water inside liquid-phase clouds induced by aerosols, through the suppression of rain formation, has been postulated to lead to substantial cooling, which would imply that the Earth's surface temperature is highly sensitive to anthropogenic forcing. Here we provide direct observational evidence that, instead of a strong increase, aerosols cause a relatively weak average decrease in the amount of water in liquid-phase clouds compared with unpolluted clouds. Measurements of polluted clouds downwind of various anthropogenic sources-such as oil refineries, smelters, coal-fired power plants, cities, wildfires and ships-reveal that aerosol-induced cloud-water increases, caused by suppressed rain formation, and decreases, caused by enhanced evaporation of cloud water, partially cancel each other out. We estimate that the observed decrease in cloud water offsets 23% of the global climate-cooling effect caused by aerosol-induced increases in the concentration of cloud droplets. These findings invalidate the hypothesis that increases in cloud water cause a substantial climate cooling effect and translate into reduced uncertainty in projections of future climate.
MeSH term(s)	Aerosols/analysis ; Aerosols/chemistry ; Air Pollution/analysis ; Climate Change/statistics & numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention & control ; Greenhouse Effect/statistics & numerical data ; Human Activities ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; Water/analysis ; Water/chemistry
Chemical Substances	Aerosols ; Water (059QF0KO0R)
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-07-31
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	120714-3
ISSN	1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
ISSN (online)	1476-4687
ISSN	0028-0836
DOI	10.1038/s41586-019-1423-9
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Article: Volcano and ship tracks indicate excessive aerosol-induced cloud water increases in a climate model.

Toll, Velle / Christensen, Matthew / Gassó, Santiago / Bellouin, Nicolas

Geophysical research letters

2017 Volume 44, Issue 24, Page(s) 12492–12500

Abstract: Aerosol-cloud interaction is the most uncertain mechanism of anthropogenic radiative forcing of Earth's climate, and aerosol-induced cloud water changes are particularly poorly constrained in climate models. By combining satellite retrievals of volcano ... ...

Abstract	Aerosol-cloud interaction is the most uncertain mechanism of anthropogenic radiative forcing of Earth's climate, and aerosol-induced cloud water changes are particularly poorly constrained in climate models. By combining satellite retrievals of volcano and ship tracks in stratocumulus clouds, we compile a unique observational dataset and confirm that liquid water path (LWP) responses to aerosols are bidirectional, and on average the increases in LWP are closely compensated by the decreases. Moreover, the meteorological parameters controlling the LWP responses are strikingly similar between the volcano and ship tracks. In stark contrast to observations, there are substantial unidirectional increases in LWP in the Hadley Centre climate model, because the model accounts only for the decreased precipitation efficiency and not for the enhanced entrainment drying. If the LWP increases in the model were compensated by the decreases as the observations suggest, its indirect aerosol radiative forcing in stratocumulus regions would decrease by 45%.
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-12-04
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	7403-2
ISSN	0094-8276
ISSN	0094-8276
DOI	10.1002/2017GL075280
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Article ; Online: Physical science research needed to evaluate the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening.

Feingold, Graham / Ghate, Virendra P / Russell, Lynn M / Blossey, Peter / Cantrell, Will / Christensen, Matthew W / Diamond, Michael S / Gettelman, Andrew / Glassmeier, Franziska / Gryspeerdt, Edward / Haywood, James / Hoffmann, Fabian / Kaul, Colleen M / Lebsock, Matthew / McComiskey, Allison C / McCoy, Daniel T / Ming, Yi / Mülmenstädt, Johannes / Possner, Anna /

Prabhakaran, Prasanth / Quinn, Patricia K / Schmidt, K Sebastian / Shaw, Raymond A / Singer, Clare E / Sorooshian, Armin / Toll, Velle / Wan, Jessica S / Wood, Robert / Yang, Fan / Zhang, Jianhao / Zheng, Xue

Science advances

2024 Volume 10, Issue 12, Page(s) eadi8594

Abstract: Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science ... ...

Abstract	Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science perspective, the consensus of a broad international group of scientists is that the viability of MCB will ultimately depend on whether observations and models can robustly assess the scale-up of local-to-global brightening in today's climate and identify strategies that will ensure an equitable geographical distribution of the benefits and risks associated with projected regional changes in temperature and precipitation. To address the physical science knowledge gaps required to assess the societal implications of MCB, we propose a substantial and targeted program of research-field and laboratory experiments, monitoring, and numerical modeling across a range of scales.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-20
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Review
ZDB-ID	2810933-8
ISSN	2375-2548 ; 2375-2548
ISSN (online)	2375-2548
ISSN	2375-2548
DOI	10.1126/sciadv.adi8594
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Article: Hindcast experiments of the derecho in Estonia on 08 August, 2010: Modelling derecho with NWP model HARMONIE

Toll, Velle / Aarne MÃ¤nnik / Andres Luhamaa / Rein RÃµÃµm

Atmospheric research. 2015 May 01, v. 158-159

2015

Abstract: On August 8, 2010, a derecho swept over Northern Europe, causing widespread wind damage and more than 2 million Euros in economic loss in Estonia during its most destructive stage. This paper presents a modelling study of the derecho-producing storm ... ...

Abstract	On August 8, 2010, a derecho swept over Northern Europe, causing widespread wind damage and more than 2 million Euros in economic loss in Estonia during its most destructive stage. This paper presents a modelling study of the derecho-producing storm utilising the Hirlam Aladin Research for Mesoscale Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in Europe (HARMONIE) model. The model setup is chosen to mimic near-future, nearly kilometre-scale, operational environments in European national weather services. The model simulations are compared to remote sensing and in situ observations. The HARMONIE model is capable of reproducing the wind gust severity and precipitation intensity. Moreover, 2.5-km grid spacing is shown to be sufficient for producing a reliable signal of the severe convective storm. Storm dynamics are well simulated, including the rear inflow jet. Although the model performance is promising, a strong dependence on the initial data, a weak trailing stratiform precipitation region and an incorrect timing of the storm are identified.
Keywords	financial economics ; model validation ; prediction ; remote sensing ; simulation models ; storms ; wind ; wind damage ; Estonia ; Northern European region
Language	English
Dates of publication	2015-0501
Size	p. 179-191.
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ISSN	0169-8095
DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.10.011
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing.

Christensen, Matthew W / Gettelman, Andrew / Cermak, Jan / Dagan, Guy / Diamond, Michael / Douglas, Alyson / Feingold, Graham / Glassmeier, Franziska / Goren, Tom / Grosvenor, Daniel P / Gryspeerdt, Edward / Kahn, Ralph / Li, Zhanqing / Ma, Po-Lun / Malavelle, Florent / McCoy, Isabel L / McCoy, Daniel T / McFarquhar, Greg / Mülmenstädt, Johannes /

Pal, Sandip / Possner, Anna / Povey, Adam / Quaas, Johannes / Rosenfeld, Daniel / Schmidt, Anja / Schrödner, Roland / Sorooshian, Armin / Stier, Philip / Toll, Velle / Watson-Parris, Duncan / Wood, Robert / Yang, Mingxi / Yuan, Tianle

Atmospheric chemistry and physics

2022 Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 641–674

Abstract: Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in ... ...

Abstract	Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide "opportunistic experiments" (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-17
Publishing country	Germany
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	1680-7316
ISSN	1680-7316
DOI	10.5194/acp-22-641-2022
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Book ; Online: Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Christensen, Matthew W. / Gettelman, Andrew / Cermak, Jan / Dagan, Guy / Diamond, Michael / Douglas, Alyson / Feingold, Graham / Glassmeier, Franziska / Goren, Tom / Grosvenor, Daniel P. / Gryspeerdt, Edward / Kahn, Ralph / Li, Zhanqing / Ma, Po-Lun / Malavelle, Florent / McCoy, Isabel L. / McCoy, Daniel T. / McFarquhar, Greg / Mülmenstädt, Johannes /

eISSN: 1680-7324

2022

Abstract: Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in ... ...

Abstract	Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-17
Publishing country	de
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Book ; Online: Opportunistic Experiments to Constrain Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing

Christensen, Matthew / Gettelman, Andrew / Cermak, Jan / Dagan, Guy / Diamond, Michael / Douglas, Alyson / Feingold, Graham / Glassmeier, Franziska / Goren, Tom / Grosvenor, Daniel / Gryspeerdt, Edward / Kahn, Ralph / Li, Zhanqing / Ma, Po-Lun / Malavelle, Florent / McCoy, Isabel / McCoy, Daniel / McFarquhar, Greg / Mülmenstädt, Johannes /

eISSN: 1680-7324

2021

Abstract: Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The non-linearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in ... ...

Abstract	Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The non-linearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can also be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatio-temporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite data sets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus, demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.
Subject code	551
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-20
Publishing country	de
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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