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Book ; Online: Modelling preventive measures and their effect on generation times in emerging epidemics

Favero, Martina / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia / Britton, Tom

2022

Abstract: We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a homogeneously mixing ... ...

Abstract	We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a homogeneously mixing community. The model is based on an infectivity process, which we define through stochastic contact and infectiousness processes, so that each individual has an independent infectivity profile. In particular, we monitor variations of the reproduction number and of the distribution of generation times. We show that some interventions, i.e. uniform reduction and vaccination, affect the former while leaving the latter unchanged, whereas other interventions, i.e. isolation, screening and contact tracing, affect both quantities. We provide a theoretical analysis of the variation of these quantities, and we show that, in practice, the variation of the generation time distribution can be significant and that it can cause biases in the estimation of reproduction numbers. The framework, because of its general nature, captures the properties of many infectious diseases, but particular emphasis is on COVID-19, for which numerical results are provided. Comment: 26 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables
Keywords	Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution ; Mathematics - Probability ; Statistics - Applications
Subject code	612
Publishing date	2022-01-24
Publishing country	us
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Evaluating costs and health consequences of sick leave strategies against pandemic and seasonal influenza in Norway using a dynamic model.

Edwards, Christina Hansen / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia / Sonbo Kristiansen, Ivar / White, Richard / de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

BMJ open

2019 Volume 9, Issue 4, Page(s) e027832

Abstract: Objectives: To quantify population-level health and economic consequences of sick leave among workers with influenza symptoms.: Interventions: Compared with current sick leave practice (baseline), we evaluated the health and cost consequences of: (1) ...

Abstract	Objectives: To quantify population-level health and economic consequences of sick leave among workers with influenza symptoms. Interventions: Compared with current sick leave practice (baseline), we evaluated the health and cost consequences of: (1) increasing the proportion of workers on sick leave from 65% (baseline) to 80% or 90%; (2) shortening the maximum duration from symptom onset to sick leave from 4 days (baseline) to 2 days, 1.5 days, 1 day and 0.5 days; and (3) combinations of 1 and 2. Methods: A dynamic compartmental influenza model was developed using Norwegian population data and survey data on employee sick leave practices. The sick leave interventions were simulated under 12 different seasonal epidemic and 36 different pandemic influenza scenarios. These scenarios varied in terms of transmissibility, the proportion of symptomatic cases and illness severity (risk of primary care consultations, hospitalisations and deaths). Using probabilistic sensitivity analyses, a net health benefit approach was adopted to assess the cost-effectiveness of the interventions from a societal perspective. Results: Compared with current sick leave practice, sick leave interventions were cost-effective for 31 (65%) of the pandemic scenarios, and 11 (92%) of the seasonal scenarios. Economic benefits from sick leave interventions were greatest for scenarios with low transmissibility, high symptomatic proportions and high illness severity. Overall, the health and economic benefits were greatest for the intervention involving 90% of sick workers taking sick leave within one-half day of symptoms. Depending on the influenza scenario, this intervention resulted in a 44.4%-99.7% reduction in the attack rate. Interventions involving sick leave onset beginning 2 days or later, after the onset of symptoms, resulted in economic losses. Conclusions: Prompt sick leave onset and a high proportion of sick leave among workers with influenza symptoms may be cost-effective, particularly during influenza epidemics and pandemics with low transmissibility or high morbidity.
MeSH term(s)	Absenteeism ; Adult ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Female ; Humans ; Influenza, Human/economics ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Norway/epidemiology ; Occupational Health/statistics & numerical data ; Pandemics ; Seasons ; Sick Leave/economics ; Sick Leave/statistics & numerical data ; Young Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-04-03
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2747269-3
ISSN	2044-6055 ; 2044-6055 ; 2053-3624
ISSN (online)	2044-6055
ISSN	2044-6055 ; 2053-3624
DOI	10.1136/bmjopen-2018-027832
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Modelling: Understanding pandemics and how to control them.

Marion, Glenn / Hadley, Liza / Isham, Valerie / Mollison, Denis / Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina / Pellis, Lorenzo / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia / Scarabel, Francesca / Swallow, Ben / Trapman, Pieter / Villela, Daniel

Epidemics

2022 Volume 39, Page(s) 100588

Abstract: New disease challenges, societal demands and better or novel types of data, drive innovations in the structure, formulation and analysis of epidemic models. Innovations in modelling can lead to new insights into epidemic processes and better use of ... ...

Abstract	New disease challenges, societal demands and better or novel types of data, drive innovations in the structure, formulation and analysis of epidemic models. Innovations in modelling can lead to new insights into epidemic processes and better use of available data, yielding improved disease control and stimulating collection of better data and new data types. Here we identify key challenges for the structure, formulation, analysis and use of mathematical models of pathogen transmission relevant to current and future pandemics.
MeSH term(s)	Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics/prevention & control
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-05-31
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100588
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Article ; Online: The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries

Shubin, Mikhail / Brustad, Hilde Kjelgaard / Midtbø, Jørgen Eriksson / Günther, Felix / Alessandretti, Laura / Ala-Nissila, Tapio / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia / Kivelä, Mikko / Hin Chan, Louis Yat / Leskelä, Lasse

medRxiv

Abstract: Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful ... ...

Abstract	Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We investigate the immediate impact of cross-border travel on disease spread and employ counterfactual scenarios to explore the cumulative effects of introducing additional infected individuals into a population during the ongoing epidemic. Our results indicate that border restrictions can significantly influence the course of an epidemic, but this impact is highly contingent on the prevailing epidemic status of the involved countries. In particular, there are several instances in which the contribution of cross-border movement was found to be negligible. Our findings underscore the critical importance of accurate data and models on both epidemic progression and travel patterns in informing decisions related to inter-country mobility restrictions.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-16
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2023.11.15.23297934
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Influenza in workplaces: transmission, workers' adherence to sick leave advice and European sick leave recommendations.

Edwards, Christina Hansen / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia / de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

European journal of public health

2016 Volume 26, Issue 3, Page(s) 478–485

Abstract: Background: Knowledge about influenza transmission in the workplace and whether staying home from work when experiencing influenza-like illness can reduce the spread of influenza is crucial for the design of efficient public health initiatives.: Aim: ...

Abstract	Background: Knowledge about influenza transmission in the workplace and whether staying home from work when experiencing influenza-like illness can reduce the spread of influenza is crucial for the design of efficient public health initiatives. Aim: This review synthesizes current literature on sickness presenteeism and influenza transmission in the workplace and provides an overview of sick leave recommendations in Europe for influenza. Methods: A search was performed on Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, Cinahl, Web of Science, Scopus and SweMed to identify studies related to workplace contacts, -transmission, -interventions and compliance with recommendations to take sick leave. A web-based survey on national recommendations and policies for sick leave during influenza was issued to 31 European countries. Results: Twenty-two articles (9 surveys; 13 modelling articles) were eligible for this review. Results from social mixing studies suggest that 20-25% of weekly contacts are made in the workplace, while modelling studies suggest that on average 16% (range 9-33%) of influenza transmission occurs in the workplace. The effectiveness of interventions to reduce workplace presenteeism is largely unknown. Finally, estimates from studies reporting expected compliance with sick leave recommendations ranged from 71 to 95%. Overall, 18 countries participated in the survey of which nine (50%) had issued recommendations encouraging sick employees to stay at home during the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic, while only one country had official recommendations for seasonal influenza. Conclusions: During the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic, many European countries recommended ill employees to take sick leave. Further research is warranted to quantify the effect of reduced presenteeism during influenza illness.
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-06
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1129243-x
ISSN	1464-360X ; 1101-1262
ISSN (online)	1464-360X
ISSN	1101-1262
DOI	10.1093/eurpub/ckw031
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Estimates of cocaine use in Milan.

Zuzzi, Sara / Rossi, Carla / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia

Current drug abuse reviews

2013 Volume 6, Issue 2, Page(s) 165–175

Abstract: A comparative analysis of three different estimation methods of cocaine use in Milan, Italy, is carried out, including an analysis of the size and trends of the underlying reference population. The three cocaine use estimates are derived from wastewater ... ...

Abstract	A comparative analysis of three different estimation methods of cocaine use in Milan, Italy, is carried out, including an analysis of the size and trends of the underlying reference population. The three cocaine use estimates are derived from wastewater analysis, a "street" survey and one-source capture-recapture analysis of administrative sanctions for drug possession. All three data sources span several years during the decade 2000-2010. For each method, assumptions and limitations are discussed. It is concluded, although the amount of data regarding cocaine use in Milan during the years 2000-2010 is considerable, that none of the estimates is completely reliable, mainly because of the many assumptions needed for inference to the whole community, that all three estimates however agree on a substantial reduction in cocaine use and users between the years 2007 and 2010. The recently developed wastewater analysis technique yields estimates comparable to those derived from the street based survey, while capture-recapture analysis of administrative data on identification by law enforcement agencies as cocaine user probably targets only a subpopulation of all users.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Cocaine/administration & dosage ; Cocaine/urine ; Cocaine-Related Disorders/epidemiology ; Data Collection/methods ; Female ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Reproducibility of Results ; Substance Abuse Detection/methods ; Time Factors ; Waste Water/analysis ; Young Adult
Chemical Substances	Waste Water ; Cocaine (I5Y540LHVR)
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-04-05
Publishing country	United Arab Emirates
Document type	Comparative Study ; Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ISSN	1874-4745
ISSN (online)	1874-4745
DOI	10.2174/1874473706666131205153203
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Methods for estimating incidence of drug use: a review.

Sánchez-Niubò, Albert / Mammone, Alessia / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia

Current drug abuse reviews

2013 Volume 6, Issue 2, Page(s) 130–143

Abstract: Several methods for estimating drug use incidence, that have been used in the literature or that could be used, having been used in a different framework, are described and commented. The applicability of the different methods depends on available data ... ...

Abstract	Several methods for estimating drug use incidence, that have been used in the literature or that could be used, having been used in a different framework, are described and commented. The applicability of the different methods depends on available data and knowledge about relevant parameters. The many similarities between drug use incidence estimation and estimation of disease incidence are highlighted, but also the distinguishing aspects that make drug use incidence estimation a challenge to standard statistical methods.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Incidence ; Models, Statistical ; Substance-Related Disorders/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-04-05
Publishing country	United Arab Emirates
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Review
ISSN	1874-4745
ISSN (online)	1874-4745
DOI	10.2174/187447370602140401221416
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Article ; Online: Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.

Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben de / Iversen, Bjørn G / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia

PloS one

2012 Volume 7, Issue 1, Page(s) e30018

Abstract: To evaluate the impact of mass vaccination with adjuvanted vaccines (eventually 40% population coverage) and antivirals during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Norway, we fitted an age-structured SEIR model using data on vaccinations and sales of ... ...

Abstract	To evaluate the impact of mass vaccination with adjuvanted vaccines (eventually 40% population coverage) and antivirals during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Norway, we fitted an age-structured SEIR model using data on vaccinations and sales of antivirals in 2009/10 in Norway to Norwegian ILI surveillance data from 5 October 2009 to 4 January 2010. We estimate a clinical attack rate of approximately 30% (28.7-29.8%), with highest disease rates among children 0-14 years (43-44%). Vaccination started in week 43 and came too late to have a strong influence on the pandemic in Norway. Our results indicate that the countermeasures prevented approximately 11-12% of potential cases relative to an unmitigated pandemic. Vaccination was found responsible for roughly 3 in 4 of the avoided infections. An estimated 50% reduction in the clinical attack rate would have resulted from vaccination alone, had the campaign started 6 weeks earlier. Had vaccination been prioritized for children first, the intervention should have commenced approximately 5 weeks earlier in order to achieve the same 50% reduction. In comparison, we estimate that a non-adjuvanted vaccination program should have started 8 weeks earlier to lower the clinical attack rate by 50%. In conclusion, vaccination timing was a critical factor in relation to the spread of the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza. Our results also corroborate the central role of children for the transmission of A(H1N1) pandemic influenza.
MeSH term(s)	Adjuvants, Immunologic/administration & dosage ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/immunology ; Influenza Vaccines/immunology ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Influenza, Human/immunology ; Influenza, Human/prevention & control ; Influenza, Human/transmission ; Middle Aged ; Models, Biological ; Norway/epidemiology ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Prevalence ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Time Factors ; Vaccination ; Young Adult
Chemical Substances	Adjuvants, Immunologic ; Antiviral Agents ; Influenza Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2012-01-10
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0030018
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Four key challenges in infectious disease modelling using data from multiple sources.

De Angelis, Daniela / Presanis, Anne M / Birrell, Paul J / Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia / House, Thomas

Epidemics

2014 Volume 10, Page(s) 83–87

Abstract: Public health-related decision-making on policies aimed at controlling epidemics is increasingly evidence-based, exploiting multiple sources of data. Policy makers rely on complex models that are required to be robust, realistically approximating ... ...

Abstract	Public health-related decision-making on policies aimed at controlling epidemics is increasingly evidence-based, exploiting multiple sources of data. Policy makers rely on complex models that are required to be robust, realistically approximating epidemics and consistent with all relevant data. Meeting these requirements in a statistically rigorous and defendable manner poses a number of challenging problems. How to weight evidence from different datasets and handle dependence between them, efficiently estimate and critically assess complex models are key challenges that we expound in this paper, using examples from influenza modelling.
MeSH term(s)	Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Data Collection ; Epidemics/statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Statistics as Topic
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-09-28
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.004
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Article ; Online: "How do online and offline sampling compare in a multinational study of drug use and nightlife behaviour?"

The International journal on drug policy

2020 Volume 82, Page(s) 102812

Abstract: Background: Online sampling is widely used to recruit hard to reach samples such as drug users at nightlife events. We conducted the first study comparing differences in demographics, drug use and nightlife behaviour between an online sample of young ... ...

Abstract	Background: Online sampling is widely used to recruit hard to reach samples such as drug users at nightlife events. We conducted the first study comparing differences in demographics, drug use and nightlife behaviour between an online sample of young adults engaging with the European nightlife scene, and an offline sample recruited at nightclubs and festivals in Europe. Methods: Online participants who attended at least six nightlife events in the past 12 months were recruited using social media advertising (May-November 2017). Offline participants were recruited at nightclubs and festivals using a random intercept method (May-November 2017). Samples were compared with respect to age, gender, past year use of alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, ecstasy/MDMA and amphetamines, and past year attendance at nightclubs, licensed festivals, illegal festivals, pubs and house-parties. Results: 6153 online and 3529 offline participants were recruited. When adjusting for differences in age and gender, online participants were less likely to have used each drug and to have attended illegal festivals, pubs and house-parties in the past 12 months. The online sample also used each drug and attended each venue, with the exception of nightclubs, less frequently on average than offline participants. Adjusted odds ratios (range 0.37 to 1.39) and regression coefficients (range -0.84 to 0.07) indicate that the majority of observed differences between the samples were of a small effect size. Conclusions: Estimates of drug use and nightlife engagement are more conservative when using online sampling compared to venue based sampling. Observed differences were generally small in effect, indicating good overall representativeness when using online sampling in the European nightlife scene.
MeSH term(s)	Drug Users ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; N-Methyl-3,4-methylenedioxyamphetamine ; Pharmaceutical Preparations ; Substance-Related Disorders/epidemiology ; Young Adult
Chemical Substances	Pharmaceutical Preparations ; N-Methyl-3,4-methylenedioxyamphetamine (KE1SEN21RM)
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-06-15
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2010000-0
ISSN	1873-4758 ; 0955-3959
ISSN (online)	1873-4758
ISSN	0955-3959
DOI	10.1016/j.drugpo.2020.102812
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