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Article ; Online: TB, you're a long time cured.

Trauer, James M

2019 Volume 53, Issue 3

MeSH term(s)	Disease Progression ; Humans ; Pulmonary Aspergillosis ; Tuberculosis, Pulmonary
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-03-18
Publishing country	England
Document type	Editorial ; Comment
ZDB-ID	639359-7
ISSN	1399-3003 ; 0903-1936
ISSN (online)	1399-3003
ISSN	0903-1936
DOI	10.1183/13993003.00104-2019
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Article ; Online: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 on intensive care services in New South Wales.

Fox, Gregory J / Trauer, James M / McBryde, Emma

The Medical journal of Australia

2020 Volume 212, Issue 10, Page(s) 468–469

MeSH term(s)	Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/therapy ; Coronavirus Infections/virology ; Critical Care/organization & administration ; Humans ; Models, Organizational ; New South Wales/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/therapy ; Pneumonia, Viral/virology ; SARS-CoV-2
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-05-08
Publishing country	Australia
Document type	Letter
ZDB-ID	186082-3
ISSN	1326-5377 ; 0025-729X
ISSN (online)	1326-5377
ISSN	0025-729X
DOI	10.5694/mja2.50606
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Article ; Online: Estimating tuberculosis drug resistance amplification rates in high-burden settings.

Karmakar, Malancha / Ragonnet, Romain / Ascher, David B / Trauer, James M / Denholm, Justin T

BMC infectious diseases

2022 Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 82

Abstract: Background: Antimicrobial resistance develops following the accrual of mutations in the bacterial genome, and may variably impact organism fitness and hence, transmission risk. Classical representation of tuberculosis (TB) dynamics using a single or two ...

Abstract	Background: Antimicrobial resistance develops following the accrual of mutations in the bacterial genome, and may variably impact organism fitness and hence, transmission risk. Classical representation of tuberculosis (TB) dynamics using a single or two strain (DS/MDR-TB) model typically does not capture elements of this important aspect of TB epidemiology. To understand and estimate the likelihood of resistance spreading in high drug-resistant TB incidence settings, we used epidemiological data to develop a mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. Methods: A four-strain (drug-susceptible (DS), isoniazid mono-resistant (INH-R), rifampicin mono-resistant (RIF-R) and multidrug-resistant (MDR)) compartmental deterministic Mtb transmission model was developed to explore the progression from DS- to MDR-TB in The Philippines and Viet Nam. The models were calibrated using data from national tuberculosis prevalence (NTP) surveys and drug resistance surveys (DRS). An adaptive Metropolis algorithm was used to estimate the risks of drug resistance amplification among unsuccessfully treated individuals. Results: The estimated proportion of INH-R amplification among failing treatments was 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.89) for The Philippines and 0.77 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) for Viet Nam. The proportion of RIF-R amplification among failing treatments was 0.05 (95% CI 0.04-0.07) for The Philippines and 0.011 (95% CI 0.010-0.012) for Viet Nam. Conclusion: The risk of resistance amplification due to treatment failure for INH was dramatically higher than RIF. We observed RIF-R strains were more likely to be transmitted than acquired through amplification, while both mechanisms of acquisition were important contributors in the case of INH-R. These findings highlight the complexity of drug resistance dynamics in high-incidence settings, and emphasize the importance of prioritizing testing algorithms which allow for early detection of INH-R.
MeSH term(s)	Antitubercular Agents/pharmacology ; Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use ; Drug Resistance ; Humans ; Isoniazid ; Microbial Sensitivity Tests ; Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genetics ; Rifampin ; Tuberculosis/drug therapy ; Tuberculosis/epidemiology ; Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/drug therapy ; Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/epidemiology
Chemical Substances	Antitubercular Agents ; Isoniazid (V83O1VOZ8L) ; Rifampin (VJT6J7R4TR)
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-24
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2041550-3
ISSN	1471-2334 ; 1471-2334
ISSN (online)	1471-2334
ISSN	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-022-07067-1
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Article ; Online: Replicating superspreader dynamics with compartmental models.

Meehan, Michael T / Hughes, Angus / Ragonnet, Romain R / Adekunle, Adeshina I / Trauer, James M / Jayasundara, Pavithra / McBryde, Emma S / Henderson, Alec S

Scientific reports

2023 Volume 13, Issue 1, Page(s) 15319

Abstract: Infectious disease outbreaks often exhibit superspreader dynamics, where most infected people generate no, or few secondary cases, and only a small fraction of individuals are responsible for a large proportion of transmission. Although capturing this ... ...

Abstract	Infectious disease outbreaks often exhibit superspreader dynamics, where most infected people generate no, or few secondary cases, and only a small fraction of individuals are responsible for a large proportion of transmission. Although capturing this heterogeneity is critical for estimating outbreak risk and the effectiveness of group-specific interventions, it is typically neglected in compartmental models of infectious disease transmission-which constitute the most common transmission dynamic modeling framework. In this study we propose different classes of compartmental epidemic models that incorporate transmission heterogeneity, fit them to a number of real outbreak datasets, and benchmark their performance against the canonical superspreader model (i.e., the negative binomial branching process model). We find that properly constructed compartmental models can capably reproduce observed superspreader dynamics and we provide the pathogen-specific parameter settings required to do so. As a consequence, we also show that compartmental models parameterized according to a binary clinical classification have limited support.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Epidemiological Models ; Disease Outbreaks ; Benchmarking ; Epidemics ; Models, Statistical
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-09-15
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-023-42567-3
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Article ; Online: Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Chronic Insomnia.

Trauer, James M / Cunnington, David

Annals of internal medicine

2016 Volume 164, Issue 2, Page(s) 134–135

MeSH term(s)	Cognitive Therapy ; Humans ; Sleep Initiation and Maintenance Disorders/therapy
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-01-19
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Comment ; Letter
ZDB-ID	336-0
ISSN	1539-3704 ; 0003-4819
ISSN (online)	1539-3704
ISSN	0003-4819
DOI	10.7326/L15-0484
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Article ; Online: Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Latent Tuberculosis Screening and Treatment Strategies in Recent Migrants to a Low-Incidence Setting.

Dale, Katie D / Abayawardana, Milinda J / McBryde, Emma S / Trauer, James M / Carvalho, Natalie

American journal of epidemiology

2021 Volume 191, Issue 2, Page(s) 255–270

Abstract: Many tuberculosis (TB) cases in low-incidence settings are attributed to reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired overseas. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of community-based LTBI screening and treatment strategies in recent migrants to a ... ...

Abstract	Many tuberculosis (TB) cases in low-incidence settings are attributed to reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired overseas. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of community-based LTBI screening and treatment strategies in recent migrants to a low-incidence setting (Australia). A decision-analytical Markov model was developed that cycled 1 migrant cohort (≥11-year-olds) annually over a lifetime from 2020. Postmigration/onshore and offshore (screening during visa application) strategies were compared with existing policy (chest x-ray during visa application). Outcomes included TB cases averted and discounted cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained from a health-sector perspective. Most recent migrants are young adults and cost-effectiveness is limited by their relatively low LTBI prevalence, low TB mortality risks, and high emigration probability. Onshore strategies cost at least $203,188 (Australian) per QALY gained, preventing approximately 2.3%-7.0% of TB cases in the cohort. Offshore strategies (screening costs incurred by migrants) cost at least $13,907 per QALY gained, preventing 5.5%-16.9% of cases. Findings were most sensitive to the LTBI treatment quality-of-life decrement (further to severe adverse events); with a minimal decrement, all strategies caused more ill health than they prevented. Additional LTBI strategies in recent migrants could only marginally contribute to TB elimination and are unlikely to be cost-effective unless screening costs are borne by migrants and potential LTBI treatment quality-of-life decrements are ignored.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Adult ; Antitubercular Agents/economics ; Australia/epidemiology ; Child ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Latent Tuberculosis/drug therapy ; Latent Tuberculosis/economics ; Latent Tuberculosis/epidemiology ; Male ; Mass Screening/economics ; Mass Screening/methods ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Transients and Migrants/statistics & numerical data ; Young Adult
Chemical Substances	Antitubercular Agents
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-17
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2937-3
ISSN	1476-6256 ; 0002-9262
ISSN (online)	1476-6256
ISSN	0002-9262
DOI	10.1093/aje/kwab150
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Article ; Online: Quantifying the rates of late reactivation tuberculosis: a systematic review.

Dale, Katie D / Karmakar, Malancha / Snow, Kathryn J / Menzies, Dick / Trauer, James M / Denholm, Justin T

The Lancet. Infectious diseases

2021 Volume 21, Issue 10, Page(s) e303–e317

Abstract: The risk of tuberculosis is greatest soon after infection, but Mycobacterium tuberculosis can remain in the body latently, and individuals can develop disease in the future, sometimes years later. However, there is uncertainty about how often ... ...

Abstract	The risk of tuberculosis is greatest soon after infection, but Mycobacterium tuberculosis can remain in the body latently, and individuals can develop disease in the future, sometimes years later. However, there is uncertainty about how often reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) occurs. We searched eight databases (inception to June 25, 2019) to identify studies that quantified tuberculosis reactivation rates occurring more than 2 years after infection (late reactivation), with a focus on identifying untreated study cohorts with defined timing of LTBI acquisition (PROSPERO registered: CRD42017070594). We included 110 studies, divided into four methodological groups. Group 1 included studies that documented late reactivation rates from conversion (n=14) and group 2 documented late reactivation rates in LTBI cohorts from exposure (n=11). Group 3 included 86 studies in LTBI cohorts with an unknown exposure history, and group 4 included seven ecological studies. Since antibiotics have been used to treat tuberculosis, only 11 studies have documented late reactivation rates in infected, untreated cohorts from either conversion (group 1) or exposure (group 2); six of these studies lasted at least 4 years and none lasted longer than 10 years. These studies found that tuberculosis rates declined over time, reaching approximately 200 cases per 100 000 person-years or less by the fifth year, and possibly declining further after 5 years but interpretation was limited by decreasing or unspecified cohort sizes. In cohorts with latent tuberculosis and an unknown exposure history (group 3), tuberculosis rates were generally lower than those seen in groups 1 and 2, and beyond 10 years after screening, rates had declined to less than 100 per 100 000 person-years. Reinfection risks limit interpretation in all studies and the effect of age is unclear. Late reactivation rates are commonly estimated or modelled to prioritise tuberculosis control strategies towards tubuculosis elimination, but significant gaps remain in our understanding that must be acknowledged; the relative importance of late reactivation versus early progression to the global burden of tuberculosis remains unknown.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Child ; Cohort Studies ; Female ; Humans ; Latent Tuberculosis/epidemiology ; Latent Tuberculosis/microbiology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genetics ; Mycobacterium tuberculosis/physiology ; Recurrence ; Young Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-20
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Systematic Review
ZDB-ID	2061641-7
ISSN	1474-4457 ; 1473-3099
ISSN (online)	1474-4457
ISSN	1473-3099
DOI	10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30728-3
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Article ; Online: Geospatial clustering and modelling provide policy guidance to distribute funding for active TB case finding in Ethiopia.

Shaweno, Debebe / Trauer, James M / Doan, Tan N / Denholm, Justin T / McBryde, Emma S

Epidemics

2021 Volume 36, Page(s) 100470

Abstract: Tuberculosis (TB) exhibits considerable spatial heterogeneity, occurring in clusters that may act as hubs of community transmission. We evaluated the impact of an intervention targeting spatial TB hotspots in a rural region of Ethiopia. To evaluate the ... ...

Abstract	Tuberculosis (TB) exhibits considerable spatial heterogeneity, occurring in clusters that may act as hubs of community transmission. We evaluated the impact of an intervention targeting spatial TB hotspots in a rural region of Ethiopia. To evaluate the impact of targeted active case finding (ACF), we used a spatially structured mathematical model that has previously been described. From model equilibrium, we simulated the impact of a hotspot-targeted strategy (HTS) on TB incidence ten years from intervention commencement and the associated cost-effectiveness. HTS was also compared with an untargeted strategy (UTS). We used logistic cost-coverage analysis to estimate cost-effectiveness of interventions. At a community screening coverage level of 95 % in a hotspot region, which corresponds to screening 20 % of the total population, HTS would reduce overall TB incidence by 52 % compared with baseline. For UTS to achieve an equivalent effect, it would be necessary to screen more than 80 % of the total population. Compared to the existing passive case detection strategy, the HTS at a CDR of 75 percent in hotspot regions is expected to avert 1,023 new TB cases over ten years saving USD 170 per averted case. Similarly, at the same CDR, the UTS will detect 1316 cases over the same period saving USD 3 per averted TB case. The incremental-cost effectiveness-ratio (ICER) of UTS compared with HTS is USD 582 per averted case corresponding to 293 more TB cases averted at an additional cost of USD 170,700. Where regional TB program spending was capped at current levels, maximum gains in incidence reduction were seen when the regional budget was shared between hotspots and non-hotspot regions in the ratio of 40% : 60%. Our analysis suggests that a spatially targeted strategy is efficient and cost-saving, with the potential for significant reduction in overall TB burden.
MeSH term(s)	Cluster Analysis ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Ethiopia/epidemiology ; Humans ; Policy ; Tuberculosis/epidemiology ; Tuberculosis/prevention & control
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-19
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100470
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Article ; Online: Appropriate comparisons of tuberculosis latency structures with empiric data.

Trauer, James M / Ragonnet, Romain / McBryde, Emma S

The Lancet. Infectious diseases

2018 Volume 18, Issue 7, Page(s) 720–721

MeSH term(s)	Communicable Diseases ; Disease Progression ; Humans ; Mycobacterium tuberculosis ; Tuberculosis
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-07-05
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Letter ; Comment
ZDB-ID	2061641-7
ISSN	1474-4457 ; 1473-3099
ISSN (online)	1474-4457
ISSN	1473-3099
DOI	10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30339-6
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Article ; Online: Modelling tuberculosis control priorities: more of the same will not do.

Wejse, Christian / Ragonnet, Romain / McBryde, Emma S / Trauer, James M

The Lancet. Global health

2019 Volume 7, Issue 10, Page(s) e1319

MeSH term(s)	Antitubercular Agents ; Humans ; Tuberculosis
Chemical Substances	Antitubercular Agents
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-09-19
Publishing country	England
Document type	Letter ; Comment
ZDB-ID	2723488-5
ISSN	2214-109X ; 2214-109X
ISSN (online)	2214-109X
ISSN	2214-109X
DOI	10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30286-4
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