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Article: Paper on model responses to selected adverse weather conditions

Trnka, Miroslav / Rötter, Reimund / Olesen, Jørgen E. / Kersebaum, Kurt Christian

FACCE MACSUR Reports, 10:C1.2-D

2017

Abstract: Based on the Trnka et al. (2015) study that indicated that heat and drought will be the most important stress factors for most of the European what area the further effort focused on these two extremes. The crop model HERMES has been tested for its ... ...

Institution	Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
Abstract	Based on the Trnka et al. (2015) study that indicated that heat and drought will be the most important stress factors for most of the European what area the further effort focused on these two extremes. The crop model HERMES has been tested for its ability to replicate correctly drought stress, heat stress and combination of both stresses. While data on the drought stress were available for both field and growth chambers, heat stress and its combination with heat stress was available only for the growth chambers. The modified version of the HERMES crop model was developed by Dr. Kersebaum and is being currently prepared for the journal paper publication.
Keywords	Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Food Security ; Joint Programming Initiative ; crop modelling
Language	English
Document type	Article
DOI	10.4126/FRL01-006413058
Database	Repository for Life Sciences

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Article: Description of the compiled experimental data available in the MACSUR CropM database

Trnka, Miroslav / Kersebaum, Kurt Christian / Olesen, Jørgen E.

FACCE MACSUR Reports, 6:D-C2.1

2015

Abstract: The input data necessary for crop model simulations and data for their calibration/validation (and thus requirements for observations and measurements in suitable experiments) have been collected through out the project together with data for additional ... ...

Institution	Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
Abstract	The input data necessary for crop model simulations and data for their calibration/validation (and thus requirements for observations and measurements in suitable experiments) have been collected through out the project together with data for additional analysis of abiotic factors influencing yields. A list of possible dataset was collated in the first year of project however very few of the existing datasets were found usable for the crop model simulation as they fell short of the requirements defined in the part 2.3. However database has been populated as planned with the results of the ongoing MACSUR studies and will serve in the same way for the MACSUR 2 duration.
Language	English
Document type	Article
DOI	10.4126/FRL01-006413377
Database	Repository for Life Sciences

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Article: Inter-comparison of statistical models for projecting winter oilseed rape yield in Europe under climate change

Kersebaum, Kurt Christian / Trnka, Miroslav / Olesen, Jørgen E.

FACCE MACSUR Reports, 5:SP5-61

2015

Abstract: While intercomparison of process-based crop models for projections under climate change is being intensively studied at European as well as at the global scale, little effort has been made for comparing statistical models. In this study, several ... ...

Institution	Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
Abstract	While intercomparison of process-based crop models for projections under climate change is being intensively studied at European as well as at the global scale, little effort has been made for comparing statistical models. In this study, several regression techniques (ordinary least squares, stepwise, shrinkage methods, principle components and partial least squares) were combined with different types of climate input variables (with different temporal resolution) in order to define a large range of statistical models. Each model was fitted to winter oilseed rape data collected in 689, 325 and 173 field experiments carried out in Denmark, Germany, and Czech Republic, respectively. The fitted models were then used to predict yield of winter oilseed rape in the field experiments during more than 20 years, up to 2013. Interpretability of the estimated climate variable effects and accuracy of yield predictions were both analysed. Results suggest that recent statistical methods (e.g., shrinkage methods) may have considerable capabilities to complement traditional statistical methods in yield prediction. The selection of the most influential variables was strongly influenced by the statistical method used to analyse the data. Among the most recent statistical methods, the uncertainties in projecting yield of winter oilseed rape under climate change were mainly due to residual errors and uncertainty in estimated parameter values, and not to model choice.
Language	English
Document type	Article
DOI	10.4126/FRL01-006413718
Database	Repository for Life Sciences

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Article ; Online: Landscape Change Scenarios: Developing Participatory Tools for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change.

Zandlová, Markéta / Skokanová, Hana / Trnka, Miroslav

Environmental management

2023 Volume 72, Issue 3, Page(s) 631–656

Abstract: The impacts of climate change on people and ecosystems have been studied at both local and global levels. The environment is expected to change significantly, and the role of local communities in shaping more resilient landscapes is considered crucial. ... ...

Abstract	The impacts of climate change on people and ecosystems have been studied at both local and global levels. The environment is expected to change significantly, and the role of local communities in shaping more resilient landscapes is considered crucial. This research focuses on rural regions highly susceptible to climate change impacts. The objective was to enhance conditions for climate resilient development on a microlocal level by encouraging diverse stakeholders to participate in developing sustainable landscape management. This paper introduces a novel interdisciplinary mixed-method approach to landscape scenario development, combining research-driven and participatory approaches and integrating quantitative methods with qualitative ethnographic inquiry. Two scenarios for 2050 were built: a research-driven, business-as-usual scenario accounting for mandatory adaptation policies and an optimistic scenario combining research-driven and participatory approaches, including additional feasible community-based measures. While the differences between the projected land use seem to be relatively subtle, the optimistic scenario would in fact lead to a considerably more resilient landscape. The results highlight the role of interdisciplinarity and ethnography in gaining good local knowledge and building an atmosphere of trust. These factors supported the research credibility, strengthened the legitimacy of the intervention in local affairs, and contributed to the active participation of the stakeholders. We argue that despite its time, intense effort and limited direct policy impact, the mixed-method approach is highly suitable for the microlocal level. It encourages citizens to think about how their environment is threatened by climate change impacts and increases their willingness to contribute to climate resilience.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-06-08
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1478932-2
ISSN	1432-1009 ; 0364-152X
ISSN (online)	1432-1009
ISSN	0364-152X
DOI	10.1007/s00267-023-01840-x
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Sustainable cultivation of the white truffle (Tuber magnatum) requires ecological understanding.

Čejka, Tomáš / Trnka, Miroslav / Büntgen, Ulf

Mycorrhiza

2023 Volume 33, Issue 5-6, Page(s) 291–302

Abstract: The white truffle (Tuber magnatum Picco.; WT) is the most expensive and arguably also the most delicious species within the genus Tuber. Due to its hidden belowground life cycle, complex host symbiosis, and yet unknown distribution, cultivation of the ... ...

Abstract	The white truffle (Tuber magnatum Picco.; WT) is the most expensive and arguably also the most delicious species within the genus Tuber. Due to its hidden belowground life cycle, complex host symbiosis, and yet unknown distribution, cultivation of the enigmatic species has only recently been achieved at some plantations in France. A sustainable production of WTs under future climate change, however, requires a better ecological understanding of the species' natural occurrence. Here, we combine information from truffle hunters with a literature review to assess the climatic, edaphic, geographic, and symbiotic characteristics of 231 reported WT sites in southeast Europe. Our meta-study shows that 75% of the WT sites are located outside the species' most famous harvest region, the Piedmont in northern Italy. Spanning a wide geographic range from ~ 37° N in Sicily to ~ 47° N in Hungary, and elevations between sea level in the north and 1000 m asl in the south, all WT sites are characterised by mean winter temperatures > 0.4 °C and summer precipitation totals of ~ 50 mm. Often formed during past flood or landslide events, current soil conditions of the WT sites exhibit pH levels between 6.4 and 8.7, high macroporosity, and a cation exchange capacity of ~ 17 meq/100 g. At least 26 potential host species from 12 genera were reported at the WT sites, with Populus alba and Quercus cerris accounting for 23.5% of all plant species. We expect our findings to contribute to a sustainable WT industry under changing environmental and economic conditions.
MeSH term(s)	Mycorrhizae ; Symbiosis ; Ascomycota ; Soil
Chemical Substances	Soil
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-07-18
Publishing country	Germany
Document type	Journal Article ; Review
ZDB-ID	1087945-6
ISSN	1432-1890 ; 0940-6360
ISSN (online)	1432-1890
ISSN	0940-6360
DOI	10.1007/s00572-023-01120-w
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Article ; Online: Grain carbon isotopes indicate the ability of wheat plants to maintain enhanced intrinsic water-use efficiency even after short-term exposure to high temperatures and drought.

Pernicová, Natálie / Hlaváčová, Marcela / Findurová, Hana / Čáslavský, Josef / Urban, Otmar / Klem, Karel / Trnka, Miroslav

Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB

2023 Volume 205, Page(s) 108155

Abstract: Minimizing the impact of heat and drought on crop yields requires varieties with effective protective mechanisms. We tested the hypothesis that even a short-term high temperature amplifies the negative effects of reduced water availability on leaf gas- ... ...

Abstract	Minimizing the impact of heat and drought on crop yields requires varieties with effective protective mechanisms. We tested the hypothesis that even a short-term high temperature amplifies the negative effects of reduced water availability on leaf gas-exchange, but can induce long-lasting improvement in plant water-use efficiency after the stress period. Accordingly, three common varieties of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) were grown under field conditions. During the stem extension, the plants were exposed to distinct temperatures (daily maximum 26 vs. 38 °C), water availabilities (75% of field water capacity vs. permanent wilting point), and their combination for 14 days. All treatments reduced light-saturated rates of CO
MeSH term(s)	Water/metabolism ; Triticum/metabolism ; Temperature ; Carbon Isotopes ; Droughts ; Edible Grain/metabolism
Chemical Substances	Water (059QF0KO0R) ; Carbon Isotopes
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-02
Publishing country	France
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	742978-2
ISSN	1873-2690 ; 0981-9428
ISSN (online)	1873-2690
ISSN	0981-9428
DOI	10.1016/j.plaphy.2023.108155
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Article ; Online: Impacts of elevated CO

Pernicová, Natálie / Urban, Otmar / Čáslavský, Josef / Kolář, Tomáš / Rybníček, Michal / Sochová, Irena / Peñuelas, Josep / Bošeľa, Michal / Trnka, Miroslav

The Science of the total environment

2024 Volume 921, Page(s) 171173

Abstract: The efficiency of water use in plants, a critical ecophysiological parameter closely related to water and carbon cycles, is essential for understanding the interactions between plants and their environment. This study investigates the effects of ongoing ... ...

Abstract	The efficiency of water use in plants, a critical ecophysiological parameter closely related to water and carbon cycles, is essential for understanding the interactions between plants and their environment. This study investigates the effects of ongoing climate change and increasing atmospheric CO
MeSH term(s)	Ecosystem ; Carbon Dioxide/pharmacology ; Temperature ; Vapor Pressure ; Gases ; Photosynthesis ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; Water
Chemical Substances	Carbon Dioxide (142M471B3J) ; Gases ; Carbon Isotopes ; Water (059QF0KO0R)
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-02-23
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	121506-1
ISSN	1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
ISSN (online)	1879-1026
ISSN	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171173
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Article: Yield gaps of cereals across Europe

Schils, René / Kersebaum, Kurt Christian / Trnka, Miroslav / Palosuo, Taru / Fodor, Nándor / Gobin, Anne / Roggero, Pier Paolo

FACCE MACSUR Reports, 10:XC9.1-D1

2017

Abstract: The increasing global demand for food requires a sustainable intensification of crop production in low-yielding areas. Actions to improve crop production in these regions call for accurate spatially explicit identification of yield gaps, i.e. the ... ...

Institution	Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
Abstract	The increasing global demand for food requires a sustainable intensification of crop production in low-yielding areas. Actions to improve crop production in these regions call for accurate spatially explicit identification of yield gaps, i.e. the difference between potential or water-limited yield and actual yield. The Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) project proposes a consistent bottom-up approach to estimate yield gaps. For each country, a climate zonation is overlaid with a crop area map. Within climate zones with important crop areas, weather stations are selected with at least 10 years of daily data. For each of the 3 dominant soil types within a 100 km zone around the weather stations, the potential and water-limited yields are simulated with the WOFOST crop model, using location-specific knowledge on crop systems. Data from variety trials or other experiments, approaching potential or water-limited yields, are used for validation and calibration of the model. Actual yields are taken from sub-national statistics. Yields and yield gaps are scaled up to climate zones and subsequently to countries. The average national simulated wheat yields under rainfed conditions varied from around 5 to 6 t/ha/year in the Mediterranean to nearly 12 t/ha/year on the British Isles and in the Low Countries. The average actual wheat yield varied from around 2 to 3 t/ha/year in the Mediterranean and some countries in East Europe to nearly 9 t/ha/year on the British Isles and in the Low Countries. The average relative yield gaps varied from around 10% to 30% in many countries in Northwest Europe to around 50% to 70% in some countries in the Mediterranean and East Europe. The paper will elaborate on results per climate zone and soil type, and will also include barley and maize. Furthermore we will relate yield gaps to nitrogen use.
Language	English
Document type	Article
DOI	10.4126/FRL01-006413049
Database	Repository for Life Sciences

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Article: Online maps of Yield Gaps of cereals across Europe: Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR)2017 Scientific Conference, 22-24 May, 2017 in Berlin

Schils, René / Kersebaum, Kurt Christian / Trnka, Miroslav / Palosuo, Taru / Fodor, Nándor / Gobin, Anne / Roggero, Pier Paolo

FACCE MACSUR Reports, 10:XC9.1-D2

2017

Abstract: The yield gap and water productivity analysis of key cereal crops in Europe is completed and results are available through www.yieldgap ... ...

Institution	Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
Abstract	The yield gap and water productivity analysis of key cereal crops in Europe is completed and results are available through www.yieldgap.org
Keywords	Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Food Security ; Joint Programming Initiative ; crop modelling
Language	English
Document type	Article
DOI	10.4126/FRL01-006413459
Database	Repository for Life Sciences

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Article: Climate change driven changes of vegetation fires in the Czech Republic

Mozny, Martin / Trnka, Miroslav / Brázdil, Rudolf

Theoretical and applied climatology. 2021 Jan., v. 143, no. 1-2

2021

Abstract: With rising temperatures and decreasing soil water, the frequency of vegetation fires is increasing globally. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the frequency of vegetation fires that required intervention by the Czech Fire Rescue Service in the ...

Abstract	With rising temperatures and decreasing soil water, the frequency of vegetation fires is increasing globally. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the frequency of vegetation fires that required intervention by the Czech Fire Rescue Service in the Czech Republic between 1971 and 2015. We analyzed spatial patterns across administrative regions and evaluated the role of climate and other contributing factors that could explain spatiotemporal shifts during the study period. Our study has shown that the frequency of vegetation fires has increased most in the warmest and driest areas of the Czech Republic countryside. The increase between 1991 and 2015 is about 70% in comparison with the 1971–1990 period. In all administrative regions, a statistically significant relationship of the frequency of vegetation fires and weather conditions has been demonstrated. In all regions of the study area, extreme occurrences of vegetation fires were due to a combination of drought and heat waves. We conclude that population growth at the wildland-urban interface causes a greater frequency of vegetation fires. However, the main reason for the statistically significant increase in the frequency of vegetation fires is the ongoing climate change, manifested by an increase in values of the Fire Danger Index and heat wave occurrence.
Keywords	climate ; climate change ; climatology ; drought ; fire hazard ; heat ; population growth ; soil water ; vegetation ; wildland-urban interface ; Czech Republic
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-01
Size	p. 691-699.
Publishing place	Springer Vienna
Document type	Article
Note	NAL-AP-2-clean
ZDB-ID	1463177-5
ISSN	1434-4483 ; 0177-798X
ISSN (online)	1434-4483
ISSN	0177-798X
DOI	10.1007/s00704-020-03443-6
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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