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Article ; Online: Analysis of Vaccine Effectiveness Against COVID-19 and the Emergence of Delta and Other Variants of Concern in Utah.

Keegan, Lindsay T / Truelove, Shaun / Lessler, Justin

JAMA network open

2021 Volume 4, Issue 12, Page(s) e2140906

MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/virology ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Utah ; Vaccine Efficacy
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-12-01
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
ISSN	2574-3805
ISSN (online)	2574-3805
DOI	10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.40906
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Politicizing public health: the powder keg of rushing COVID-19 vaccines.

Limaye, Rupali J / Sauer, Molly / Truelove, Shaun A

Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics

2020 Volume 17, Issue 6, Page(s) 1662–1663

Abstract: Vaccine hesitancy is on the rise, as more individuals are delaying or refusing vaccines. This rise in hesitancy has been primarily driven by vaccine safety concerns, even though the vaccine development process is regulated by a robust and rigorous ... ...

Abstract	Vaccine hesitancy is on the rise, as more individuals are delaying or refusing vaccines. This rise in hesitancy has been primarily driven by vaccine safety concerns, even though the vaccine development process is regulated by a robust and rigorous scientific system. Recent data suggest that many individuals would be unwilling to take a COVID-19 vaccine, once one is available. The Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed aims to deliver a vaccine in the near future, even though no American or European COVID-19 vaccine has yet completed Phase 3 trials. The administration has used the emergency use authorization mechanism to fast track therapeutic products through the Food and Drug Administration and has not ruled out using the mechanism to fast track a COVID-19 vaccine. Perceived political pressure to push a COVID-19 vaccine will have a multitude of negative consequences. Not only will it lead to sub-optimal levels of vaccine acceptance toward a COVID-19 vaccine, it will reverse progress made in controlling vaccine preventable disease for years to come.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Humans ; Politics ; Public Health
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-12-17
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2664176-8
ISSN	2164-554X ; 2164-5515
ISSN (online)	2164-554X
ISSN	2164-5515
DOI	10.1080/21645515.2020.1846400
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Article ; Online: A Failure to Communicate? How Public Messaging Has Strained the COVID-19 Response in the United States.

Sauer, Molly A / Truelove, Shaun / Gerste, Amelia K / Limaye, Rupali J

Health security

2021 Volume 19, Issue 1, Page(s) 65–74

Abstract: A pandemic, especially when caused by a novel virus, induces tremendous uncertainty, fear, and anxiety. To mitigate panic and encourage appropriate behavioral action, communication is critical. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Crisis ... ...

Abstract	A pandemic, especially when caused by a novel virus, induces tremendous uncertainty, fear, and anxiety. To mitigate panic and encourage appropriate behavioral action, communication is critical. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) guidance is designed to assist public health authorities, government officials, and other stakeholders in using risk communication during an emergency. For each of the 6 core communication principles outlined in the CERC guidance, we describe the use or nonuse of these principles at critical points during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by US public health and government officials. With the knowledge that the pandemic will continue to rage for some time and that new communication challenges will arise, including issues related to vaccination and treatment options, many lessons are to be learned and shared. To reduce fear and uncertainty among those living in the United States, COVID-19 communication should be rapid and accurate, while building credibility and trust and showcasing empathy-all with a unified voice.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; Communication ; Consumer Health Information ; Humans ; Information Dissemination ; Public Health ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-19
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2823049-8
ISSN	2326-5108 ; 2326-5094
ISSN (online)	2326-5108
ISSN	2326-5094
DOI	10.1089/hs.2020.0190
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Effect of diabetes type on long-term outcome of epidermal axon regeneration.

Khoshnoodi, Mohammad / Truelove, Shaun / Polydefkis, Michael

Annals of clinical and translational neurology

2019 Volume 6, Issue 10, Page(s) 2088–2096

Abstract: Objective: To assess the effect of diabetes type on the long-term rate and extent of epidermal nerve regeneration.: Methods: Subjects with well controlled type 1 diabetes mellitus (n = 11) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (n = 36), with normal nerve ... ...

Abstract	Objective: To assess the effect of diabetes type on the long-term rate and extent of epidermal nerve regeneration. Methods: Subjects with well controlled type 1 diabetes mellitus (n = 11) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (n = 36), with normal nerve conduction studies and baseline intraepidermal nerve fiber density (IENFD), and healthy controls (n = 10) underwent chemical axotomy of the intraepidermal nerves at the thigh using topical capsaicin. Skin biopsies were performed at 30, 90, 150, and 180 days post-axotomy. Results: After 180 days, IENFD in diabetic subjects remained significantly below baseline levels, while healthy controls returned to normal. At each time point, regeneration rates were significantly slower among diabetic subjects, although type 1 subjects regenerated significantly faster and achieved higher percentages of baseline IENFD compared with type 2. Interpretation: Among diabetic patients, nerve injury recovery is likely to take significantly longer than in healthy individuals, and remains incomplete, particularly among type 2 patients. This may partially explain the progression of neuropathy among diabetic patients: damage accumulates because nerve recovery is slowed and incomplete. Furthermore, these findings support caution when recommending certain procedures, such as carpal tunnel repair, to patients with progressed diabetic disease.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Axons/physiology ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/complications ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/physiopathology ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/complications ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/physiopathology ; Diabetic Neuropathies/etiology ; Diabetic Neuropathies/physiopathology ; Epidermis/innervation ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Nerve Regeneration/physiology ; Peripheral Nerve Injuries/physiopathology ; Young Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-09-27
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2740696-9
ISSN	2328-9503 ; 2328-9503
ISSN (online)	2328-9503
ISSN	2328-9503
DOI	10.1002/acn3.50904
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: flepiMoP: The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lemaitre, Joseph C / Loo, Sara L / Kaminsky, Joshua / Lee, Elizabeth C / McKee, Clifton / Smith, Claire / Jung, Sung-Mok / Sato, Koji / Carcelen, Erica / Hill, Alison / Lessler, Justin / Truelove, Shaun

Epidemics

2024 Volume 47, Page(s) 100753

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious ... ...

Abstract	The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called the COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed for creating and simulating compartmental models of infectious disease transmission and inferring parameters through these models. The framework has been used extensively to produce short-term forecasts and longer-term scenario projections of COVID-19 at the state and county level in the US, for COVID-19 in other countries at various geographic scales, and more recently for seasonal influenza. In this paper, we highlight how the flepiMoP has evolved throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to address changing epidemiological dynamics, new interventions, and shifts in policy-relevant model outputs. As the framework has reached a mature state, we provide a detailed overview of flepiMoP's key features and remaining limitations, thereby distributing flepiMoP and its documentation as a flexible and powerful tool for researchers and public health professionals to rapidly build and deploy large-scale complex infectious disease models for any pathogen and demographic setup.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-02
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100753
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Article ; Online: Ensemble

Bay, Clara / St-Onge, Guillaume / Davis, Jessica T / Chinazzi, Matteo / Howerton, Emily / Lessler, Justin / Runge, Michael C / Shea, Katriona / Truelove, Shaun / Viboud, Cecile / Vespignani, Alessandro

Epidemics

2024 Volume 46, Page(s) 100748

Abstract: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, scenario modeling played a crucial role in shaping the decision-making process of public health policies. Unlike forecasts, scenario projections rely on specific assumptions about the future that consider different ... ...

Abstract	Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, scenario modeling played a crucial role in shaping the decision-making process of public health policies. Unlike forecasts, scenario projections rely on specific assumptions about the future that consider different plausible states-of-the-world that may or may not be realized and that depend on policy interventions, unpredictable changes in the epidemic outlook, etc. As a consequence, long-term scenario projections require different evaluation criteria than the ones used for traditional short-term epidemic forecasts. Here, we propose a novel ensemble procedure for assessing pandemic scenario projections using the results of the Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) for COVID-19 in the United States (US). By defining a "scenario ensemble" for each model and the ensemble of models, termed "Ensemble
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; United States/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Forecasting ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Public Policy ; Communication
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-02-08
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100748
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Article ; Online: Progress of the Delta variant and erosion of vaccine effectiveness, a warning from Utah

Keegan, Lindsay / Truelove, Shaun A / Lessler, Justin

medRxiv

Abstract: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, vaccines have been heralded as the best way to curtail the pandemic. Clinical trials have shown SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to be highly efficacious against both disease and infection. However, those currently in use were ... ...

Abstract	Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, vaccines have been heralded as the best way to curtail the pandemic. Clinical trials have shown SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to be highly efficacious against both disease and infection. However, those currently in use were primarily tested against early lineages. Data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) against variants of concern (VOC), including the Delta variant (B.1.617.2), remain limited. To examine the effectiveness of vaccination in Utah we compared the proportion of cases reporting vaccination to that expected at different VEs, then estimated the combined daily vaccine effectiveness using a field evaluation approach. Delta has rapidly outcompeted all other variants and, as of June 20th, represents 70% of all SARS-CoV-2 viruses sequenced in Utah. If we attribute the entire change in VE to the Delta variant, the estimated vaccine effectiveness against Delta would be 82% (95% CI: 78%, 85%). We show a modest reduction in vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 in Utah corresponding to the expansion of the Delta lineage in the state. This reduction in the effectiveness of available vaccines correlated with the arrival of novel VOCs, rather than waning immunity, is highly concerning.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-10
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2021.08.09.21261554
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Real-time COVID-19 forecasting: challenges and opportunities of model performance and translation.

Nixon, Kristen / Jindal, Sonia / Parker, Felix / Marshall, Maximilian / Reich, Nicholas G / Ghobadi, Kimia / Lee, Elizabeth C / Truelove, Shaun / Gardner, Lauren

The Lancet. Digital health

2022 Volume 4, Issue 10, Page(s) e699–e701

MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; Forecasting ; Humans
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-09-23
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2589-7500
ISSN (online)	2589-7500
DOI	10.1016/S2589-7500(22)00167-4
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Article ; Online: An evaluation of prospective COVID-19 modelling studies in the USA: from data to science translation.

Nixon, Kristen / Jindal, Sonia / Parker, Felix / Reich, Nicholas G / Ghobadi, Kimia / Lee, Elizabeth C / Truelove, Shaun / Gardner, Lauren

The Lancet. Digital health

2022 Volume 4, Issue 10, Page(s) e738–e747

Abstract: Infectious disease modelling can serve as a powerful tool for situational awareness and decision support for policy makers. However, COVID-19 modelling efforts faced many challenges, from poor data quality to changing policy and human behaviour. To ... ...

Abstract	Infectious disease modelling can serve as a powerful tool for situational awareness and decision support for policy makers. However, COVID-19 modelling efforts faced many challenges, from poor data quality to changing policy and human behaviour. To extract practical insight from the large body of COVID-19 modelling literature available, we provide a narrative review with a systematic approach that quantitatively assessed prospective, data-driven modelling studies of COVID-19 in the USA. We analysed 136 papers, and focused on the aspects of models that are essential for decision makers. We have documented the forecasting window, methodology, prediction target, datasets used, and geographical resolution for each study. We also found that a large fraction of papers did not evaluate performance (25%), express uncertainty (50%), or state limitations (36%). To remedy some of these identified gaps, we recommend the adoption of the EPIFORGE 2020 model reporting guidelines and creating an information-sharing system that is suitable for fast-paced infectious disease outbreak science.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Humans ; United States/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-09-23
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Review ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
ISSN	2589-7500
ISSN (online)	2589-7500
DOI	10.1016/S2589-7500(22)00148-0
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Changes in mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia: Implications for the effectiveness of NPIs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Loisate, Stacie / Mutembo, Simon / Arambepola, Rohan / Makungo, Kabondo / Kabalo, Elliot N / Sinyange, Nyambe B / Kapata, Nathan / Liwewe, Mazyanga / Silumezi, Andrew / Chongwe, Gershom / Kostandova, Natalya / Truelove, Shaun / Wesolowski, Amy

PLOS global public health

2023 Volume 3, Issue 10, Page(s) e0000892

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted many facets of human behavior, including human mobility partially driven by the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay at home orders, travel restrictions, and workplace and school ... ...

Abstract	The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted many facets of human behavior, including human mobility partially driven by the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay at home orders, travel restrictions, and workplace and school closures. Given the importance of human mobility in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, there have been an increase in analyses of mobility data to understand the COVID-19 pandemic to date. However, despite an abundance of these analyses, few have focused on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here, we use mobile phone calling data to provide a spatially refined analysis of sub-national human mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020-July 2021 in Zambia using transmission and mobility models. Overall, among highly trafficked intra-province routes, mobility decreased up to 52% during the time of the strictest NPIs (March-May 2020) compared to baseline. However, despite dips in mobility during the first wave of COVID-19 cases, mobility returned to baseline levels and did not drop again suggesting COVID-19 cases did not influence mobility in subsequent waves.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-31
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2767-3375
ISSN (online)	2767-3375
DOI	10.1371/journal.pgph.0000892
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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