Article ; Online: Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China [version 2; peer review
Wellcome Open Research, Vol
1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]
2021 Volume 5
Abstract: Background: As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide. Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, ... ...
Abstract | Background: As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide. Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries. Results: Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI: 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries. Conclusions: Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world. These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China. |
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Keywords | Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q |
Subject code | 950 |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2021-09-01T00:00:00Z |
Publisher | Wellcome |
Document type | Article ; Online |
Database | BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection) |
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