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  1. Article ; Online: Flood impacts on global crop production

    Wonsik Kim / Toshichika Iizumi / Nanae Hosokawa / Masahiro Tanoue / Yukiko Hirabayashi

    Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 5, p

    advances and limitations

    2023  Volume 054007

    Abstract: Considering the anticipated rise in wet extremes due to climate change, effective management of flood risks in global agriculture necessitates an initial assessment of the impact of floods on crop production. Such estimation can inform the development of ...

    Abstract Considering the anticipated rise in wet extremes due to climate change, effective management of flood risks in global agriculture necessitates an initial assessment of the impact of floods on crop production. Such estimation can inform the development of strategies to enhance the resilience of the global agricultural system against floods, particularly in the face of growing demand for food. To this end, a worldwide calculation of inundation areas’ return periods was conducted using a global river and inundation model output. This information was then linked to a global historical yield map, allowing for the identification of flood-induced crop yield changes. The findings revealed that for return periods over ten years, global average yield losses were estimated to be 4% for soy, 3% for rice, 2% for wheat, and 1% for maize. These losses amounted to a total production loss of 5.5 billion United States dollars during the 1982–2016 period. This first global estimation of flood impacts on crop production contributes to the advancement of flood risk management in agriculture, although the limitations identified in this study need to be addressed in future research.
    Keywords crop loss ; flood impact ; global analysis ; inundation area ; return period ; yield change ; Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ; TD1-1066 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350 ; Science ; Q ; Physics ; QC1-999
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher IOP Publishing
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: Enhancement of river flooding due to global warming

    Haireti Alifu / Yukiko Hirabayashi / Yukiko Imada / Hideo Shiogama

    Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2022  Volume 6

    Abstract: Abstract Human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation1. Due to the complexity of runoff generation and the streamflow process, the historical impact of human-induced climate change on river flooding ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation1. Due to the complexity of runoff generation and the streamflow process, the historical impact of human-induced climate change on river flooding remains uncertain. Here, we address the question of whether anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability of the extreme river flood events for the period 1951–2010 based on simulated river discharge derived from large ensemble climate experiments with and without human-induced climate change. The results indicate that human-induced climate change altered the probabilities of 20 of the 52 analyzed flood events. Fourteen of these 20 flood events, which occurred mainly in Asia and South America, were very likely to have been enhanced by human-induced climate change due to an increase in heavy precipitation. Conversely, two flood events in North/South America and two flood events in Asia and two flood events in Europe were suppressed by human-induced climate change, perhaps as a result of lower snowfall. Human-induced climate change has enhanced flooding more prominently in recent years, providing important insights into potential adaptation strategies for river flooding.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-11-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article ; Online: Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections

    Yukiko Hirabayashi / Masahiro Tanoue / Orie Sasaki / Xudong Zhou / Dai Yamazaki

    Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2021  Volume 7

    Abstract: Abstract Estimates of future flood risk rely on projections from climate models. The relatively few climate models used to analyze future flood risk cannot easily quantify of their associated uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrated that the ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Estimates of future flood risk rely on projections from climate models. The relatively few climate models used to analyze future flood risk cannot easily quantify of their associated uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrated that the projected fluvial flood changes estimated by a new generation of climate models, the collectively known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), are similar to those estimated by CMIP5. The spatial patterns of the multi-model median signs of change (+ or −) were also very consistent, implying greater confidence in the projections. The model spread changed little over the course of model development, suggesting irreducibility of the model spread due to internal climate variability, and the consistent projections of models from the same institute suggest the potential to reduce uncertainties caused by model differences. Potential global exposure to flooding is projected to be proportional to the degree of warming, and a greater threat is anticipated as populations increase, demonstrating the need for immediate decisions.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 550
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

    Yukiko Hirabayashi / Haireti Alifu / Dai Yamazaki / Yukiko Imada / Hideo Shiogama / Yuki Kimura

    Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2021  Volume 9

    Abstract: Abstract The ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model ... ...

    Abstract Abstract The ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.
    Keywords Floods ; Event attribution ; Large ensemble numerical simulations ; Geography. Anthropology. Recreation ; G ; Geology ; QE1-996.5
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher SpringerOpen
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article ; Online: Detections and simulations of tropospheric water vapor fluctuations due to trapped lee waves by ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 ScanSAR interferometry

    Youhei Kinoshita / Yu Morishita / Yukiko Hirabayashi

    Earth, Planets and Space, Vol 69, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2017  Volume 15

    Abstract: Abstract Detailed wave-like spatial patterns of atmospheric propagation delay signals associated with mountain lee waves were detected in Hokkaido and Tohoku by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry (InSAR) with the ScanSAR mode observation data ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Detailed wave-like spatial patterns of atmospheric propagation delay signals associated with mountain lee waves were detected in Hokkaido and Tohoku by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry (InSAR) with the ScanSAR mode observation data of a Phased Array-type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 on board the Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2. Both cases occurred under stable atmosphere conditions. The InSAR-observed peak-to-trough line of sight changes in the mountain wave signals was 4 and 5 cm with the horizontal wavelengths of 9 and 15 km in Hokkaido and Tohoku, respectively. Locations of positive phase maxima in the mountain wave signals coincides with locations of cloud streets observed by visible satellite imagery, indicating that crests of mountain waves contain relatively much water vapor compared with wave troughs. Numerical weather simulations with the horizontal grid spacing of 1 km were performed to reproduce InSAR phase variations, and as a result those simulations could reasonably reproduce observed wave amplitudes and wavelengths in both cases. On the other hand, numerical simulations tended to overestimate wave attenuation rates: simulated mountain waves decreased as the wave propagated faster than those of observed signals. Because the simulated wave attenuation rate is sensitive to physics in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), we investigated the reproducibility of five PBL schemes implemented in the WRF model. As a result, all the PBL schemes showed little attenuation except for the Yonsei University scheme (YSU), while the wavelength in the YSU was most close to the observation. Our study demonstrated the uniqueness and usefulness of InSAR for meteorological application as the ability to map the detailed water vapor distribution regardless of cloud cover. In addition, the reasonable reproducibility of the water vapor delay signal due to lee waves by the numerical weather model encourages researchers who tackle the correction of the tropospheric propagation delay, increasing ...
    Keywords ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 ; Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) ; InSAR ; ScanSAR interferometry ; Mountain wave ; Propagation delay ; Geography. Anthropology. Recreation ; G ; Geodesy ; QB275-343 ; Geology ; QE1-996.5
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2017-08-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher SpringerOpen
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article ; Online: Side effects of climate mitigation and adaptation to sustainable development related to water and food

    Noriko Nozaki / Zhipin Ai / Naota Hanasaki / Toshichika Iizumi / Masashi Kiguchi / Wonsik Kim / Taikan Oki / Andi Besse Rimba / Daisuke Tokuda / Yukiko Hirabayashi

    Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 8, p

    2023  Volume 081005

    Keywords flood ; small-scale farmers ; synergy ; trade-off ; water quality ; water resources ; Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ; TD1-1066 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350 ; Science ; Q ; Physics ; QC1-999
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher IOP Publishing
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  7. Article ; Online: Inventory of Glaciers in the Shaksgam Valley of the Chinese Karakoram Mountains, 1970–2014

    Haireti Alifu / Yukiko Hirabayashi / Brian Alan Johnson / Jean-Francois Vuillaume / Akihiko Kondoh / Minoru Urai

    Remote Sensing, Vol 10, Iss 8, p

    2018  Volume 1166

    Abstract: The Shaksgam Valley, located on the north side of the Karakoram Mountains of western China, is situated in the transition zone between the Indian monsoon system and dry arid climate zones. Previous studies have reported abnormal behaviors of the glaciers ...

    Abstract The Shaksgam Valley, located on the north side of the Karakoram Mountains of western China, is situated in the transition zone between the Indian monsoon system and dry arid climate zones. Previous studies have reported abnormal behaviors of the glaciers in this region compared to the global trend of glacier retreat, so the region is of special interest for glacier-climatological studies. For this purpose, long-term monitoring of glaciers in this region is necessary to obtain a better understanding of the relationships between glacier changes and local climate variations. However, accurate historical and up-to-date glacier inventory data for the region are currently unavailable. For this reason, this study conducted glacier inventories for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2014 (i.e., a ~10-year interval) using multi-temporal remote sensing imagery. The remote sensing data used included Corona KH-4A/B (1965–1971), Hexagon KH-9 (1980), Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) (1990/1993), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) (2000/2001), and Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) (2014/2015) multispectral satellite images, as well as digital elevation models (DEMs) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), DEMs generated from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images (2005–2014), and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) World 3D 30 m mesh (AW3D30). In the year 2014, a total of 173 glaciers (including 121 debris-free glaciers) (>0.5 km2), covering an area of 1478 ± 34 km2 (area of debris-free glaciers: 295 ± 7 km2) were mapped. The multi-temporal glacier inventory results indicated that total glacier area change between 1970–2014 was not significant. However, individual glacier changes showed significant variability. Comparisons of the changes in glacier terminus position indicated that 55 (32 debris-covered) glaciers experienced significant advances (~40–1400 m) between 1970–2014, and 74 (32 debris-covered) glaciers experienced ...
    Keywords Karakoram ; Shaksgam Valley ; Glacier Inventory ; Corona ; Hexagon ; Landsat TM/ETM+ ; Landsat OLI/TIRS ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 550
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-07-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article ; Online: GlacierMIP – A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections

    REGINE HOCK / ANDREW BLISS / BEN MARZEION / RIANNE H. GIESEN / YUKIKO HIRABAYASHI / MATTHIAS HUSS / VALENTINA RADIĆ / AIMÉE B. A. SLANGEN

    Journal of Glaciology, Vol 65, Pp 453-

    2019  Volume 467

    Abstract: Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 ... ...

    Abstract Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 ± 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 ± 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 ± 25 and 200 ± 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs.
    Keywords glacier modeling ; glacier mass balance ; ice and climate ; mountain glaciers ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350 ; Meteorology. Climatology ; QC851-999
    Subject code 550
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Cambridge University Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Article: Glacier mass balance and its potential impacts in the Altai Mountains over the period 1990–2011

    Zhang, Yong / Hideyuki Kitabata / Hiroyuki Enomoto / Tetsuo Ohata / Tsutomu Kadota / Yukiko Hirabayashi

    Journal of hydrology. 2017 Oct., v. 553

    2017  

    Abstract: The Altai Mountains contain 1281 glaciers covering an area of 1191km2. These glaciers have undergone significant changes in glacial length and area over the past decade. However, mass changes of these glaciers and their impacts remain poorly understood. ... ...

    Abstract The Altai Mountains contain 1281 glaciers covering an area of 1191km2. These glaciers have undergone significant changes in glacial length and area over the past decade. However, mass changes of these glaciers and their impacts remain poorly understood. Here we present surface mass balances of all glaciers in the region for the period 1990–2011, using a glacier mass-balance model forced by the outputs of a regional climate model. Our results indicate that the mean specific mass balance for the whole region is about −0.69mw.e.yr−1 over the entire period, and about 81.3% of these glaciers experience negative net mass balance. We detect an accelerated wastage of these glaciers in recent years, and marked differences in mass change and its sensitivity to climate change for different regions and size classes. In particular, higher mass loss and temperature sensitivity are observed for glaciers smaller than 0.5km2. In addition to temperature rise, a decrease in precipitation in the western part of the region and an increase in precipitation in the eastern part likely contribute to significant sub-region differences in mass loss. With significant glacier wastage, the contribution of all glaciers to regional water resources and sea-level change becomes larger than before, but may not be a potential threat to human populations through impacts on water availability.
    Keywords climate change ; climate models ; glaciers ; human population ; mountains ; sea level ; temperature ; water resources
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2017-10
    Size p. 662-677.
    Publishing place Elsevier B.V.
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 1473173-3
    ISSN 0022-1694
    ISSN 0022-1694
    DOI 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.026
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  10. Article: Projections of glacier change in the Altai Mountains under twenty-first century climate scenarios

    Zhang, Yong / Hideyuki Kitabata / Hiroyuki Enomoto / Tetsuo Ohata / Tsutomu Kadota / Yukiko Hirabayashi

    Climate dynamics. 2016 Nov., v. 47, no. 9-10

    2016  

    Abstract: We project glacier surface mass balances of the Altai Mountains over the period 2006–2100 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using daily near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 12 global climate ... ...

    Abstract We project glacier surface mass balances of the Altai Mountains over the period 2006–2100 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using daily near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 12 global climate models in combination with a surface mass balance model. The results indicate that the Altai glaciers will undergo sustained mass loss throughout the 21st for both RCPs and reveal the future fate of glaciers of different sizes. By 2100, glacier area in the region will shrink by 26 ± 10 % for RCP4.5, while it will shrink by 60 ± 15 % for RCP8.5. According to our simulations, most disappearing glaciers are located in the western part of the Altai Mountains. For RCP4.5, all glaciers disappearing in the twenty-first century have a present-day size smaller than 5.0 km², while for RCP8.5, an additional ~7 % of glaciers in the initial size class of 5.0–10.0 km² also vanish. We project different trends in the total meltwater discharge of the region for the two RCPs, which does not peak before 2100, with important consequences for regional water availability, particular for the semi-arid and arid regions. This further highlights the potential implications of change in the Altai glaciers on regional hydrology and environment.
    Keywords air temperature ; arid zones ; climate models ; glaciers ; hydrology ; mountains ; snowmelt
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2016-11
    Size p. 2935-2953.
    Publishing place Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 1471747-5
    ISSN 1432-0894 ; 0930-7575
    ISSN (online) 1432-0894
    ISSN 0930-7575
    DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3006-x
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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